rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[jbreher]

In order to get rich you need to get in at a super cheap price like rpietila did. If you want to get rich from bitcoin now, you better have at least 100 BTC and be ready to wait 10 to 20+ years (and by rich I don't even mean rich, but maybe hit your first million). Other than that forget it.

I can't help but think that, in ten years, you'll be looking back at today in the full realization that $800 is a super cheap price.

[jbreher]

The number 1 thing you need to get rich like rpietila is luck. You need to be lucky, that's all.

"The harder I work, the luckier I get"
- Yogi Berra

[cellard]

In order to get rich you need to get in at a super cheap price like rpietila did. If you want to get rich from bitcoin now, you better have at least 100 BTC and be ready to wait 10 to 20+ years (and by rich I don't even mean rich, but maybe hit your first million). Other than that forget it.

I can't help but think that, in ten years, you'll be looking back at today in the full realization that $800 is a super cheap price.

Maybe, but realistically, in 10 years, what can the price of bitcoin be... $10,000 best case scenario?

If you are holding 21, you will be sitting at $210,000, still not rich at all.

So you would need $100,000 per coin to retire, and by retire I mean in some cheap country so you don't run out of savings. With 21, you would be sitting at $2,100,000, after you sell, you will have to get it taxed and that cuts like up to half of your gains, so around $1,100,000 left... good, but not enough. And I doubt we'll see $100,000 unless something huge happens.

It's just too late to get rich off bitcoin. Alts? what's there? Monero? Give me a break, the anonymous coin hype is over, they pumped it with the dumb darkweb news, and bitcoin is still king of darweb. ETH is already done, too many fuckups with the DAO and so on. MAID never delivers, Steem was a mess, ZCash was an even bigger mess, ETC lottery pump already passed... ehh what the hell is left to get rich? bitcoin is the only long term coin to hold, and the rest of the coins are beaten horses.

[Biodom]

In order to get rich you need to get in at a super cheap price like rpietila did. If you want to get rich from bitcoin now, you better have at least 100 BTC and be ready to wait 10 to 20+ years (and by rich I don't even mean rich, but maybe hit your first million). Other than that forget it.

Pretty much true, but it is not always about home runs. A string of solid base hits may suffice.
It also depends on your starting capital, which was presumably ample already (in rpietila case).
Bitcoin was $160-170 as late as Jan 2015, only two years ago.
From $170 to $820 is solid 382%, which is outstanding for 24 mo.
Besides, it all depends on how large Bitcoin becomes (and how soon).
After all, there is or will be only 0.003 btc per ea earth inhabitant (on average).
Having 3 BTC ($2.5K right now) will equal yourself to a thousand people worth of wealth (0.1% earth-wise).
In addition, at some point, I hope that we will be able to earn some kind of interest on bitcoin in bitcoin, not fiat (via LN or something else).

But we are talking about getting rich with a modest starting capital, which also means without risking much. Most of us are regular people going from bill to bill, so we would need tons of base hits to amount anywhere notable.. which statistically not going to happen (long term gambling always means you lose). The logical conclusion is as said before.. luck.
Right now we have the knowledge of cryptocurrencies being a booming market, but the problem is, there are no other contenders that could give us massive gains again like bitcoin, after bitcoin, so...

OK, risto was very bullish of monero when it was, what, 30-40 cents? Did you invest? I did, but then replaced monero with eth and felt smug for a while. Who knew that eth spectacular run would end up (for the moment) in a ditch, while monero zoomed? There was your 20Xbagger or $200K for every 10K invested.

[jbreher]

In order to get rich you need to get in at a super cheap price like rpietila did. If you want to get rich from bitcoin now, you better have at least 100 BTC and be ready to wait 10 to 20+ years (and by rich I don't even mean rich, but maybe hit your first million). Other than that forget it.

I can't help but think that, in ten years, you'll be looking back at today in the full realization that $800 is a super cheap price.

Maybe, but realistically, in 10 years, what can the price of bitcoin be... $10,000 best case scenario?

No. In ten years, $10000 is not the best case scenario. $10000 or above is the 40% probability.

[kellrobinson]

.
D=days since Jan 1, 2009
price=$800/(1+e^(13.147-.0071989*D))

[Biodom]

.
D=days since Jan 1, 2009
price=$800/(1+e^(13.147-.0071989*D))

this can't be right , sorry, since denominator is above 1 making the result/product equal or below 800 in perpetuity.
we already know that it is above 800 right now.

[kellrobinson]

.
D=days since Jan 1, 2009
price=$800/(1+e^(13.147-.0071989*D))

this can't be right , sorry, since denominator is above 1 making the result/product equal or below 800 in perpetuity.
we already know that it is above 800 right now.

Yes, the price is above 800 right now.  And according to you, that makes the model invalid.
Now you're thinking that the price must always hew precisely to the model.  The price is volatile.  The model is what my math professors used to call a "smooth" or well-behaved curve.
It models long term trend.
Also, these parameters (the constants) aren't set in stone.
Let your initial urge to react non-critically subside.  You need detachement, intellectual curiosity, and rigor, or this discussion isn't going to go anywhere.
The equation models an ideal logistic curve.
I submit that this is far superior to a naive model of mere exponential growth for the foreseeable future (see the exponential trend thread https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=470453.0).

Plug in your own numbers, and you can get just about any result you want.  Set the inflection point a hundred years in the future, and you will get a curve that's almost indistinguishable from a pure exponential increase model for the span of your life.   I think you might like that better.

I set the inflection point at Jan 1, 2014, which puts us up against the asymptote.  I didn't use a computer to find the parameters, just pen, paper and the calculator on my cellphone.  And yet I think the R^2 on my curve is going to blow that exponential model in the other thread out of the water.

[thejaytiesto]

In order to get rich you need to get in at a super cheap price like rpietila did. If you want to get rich from bitcoin now, you better have at least 100 BTC and be ready to wait 10 to 20+ years (and by rich I don't even mean rich, but maybe hit your first million). Other than that forget it.

Pretty much true, but it is not always about home runs. A string of solid base hits may suffice.
It also depends on your starting capital, which was presumably ample already (in rpietila case).
Bitcoin was $160-170 as late as Jan 2015, only two years ago.
From $170 to $820 is solid 382%, which is outstanding for 24 mo.
Besides, it all depends on how large Bitcoin becomes (and how soon).
After all, there is or will be only 0.003 btc per ea earth inhabitant (on average).
Having 3 BTC ($2.5K right now) will equal yourself to a thousand people worth of wealth (0.1% earth-wise).
In addition, at some point, I hope that we will be able to earn some kind of interest on bitcoin in bitcoin, not fiat (via LN or something else).

But we are talking about getting rich with a modest starting capital, which also means without risking much. Most of us are regular people going from bill to bill, so we would need tons of base hits to amount anywhere notable.. which statistically not going to happen (long term gambling always means you lose). The logical conclusion is as said before.. luck.
Right now we have the knowledge of cryptocurrencies being a booming market, but the problem is, there are no other contenders that could give us massive gains again like bitcoin, after bitcoin, so...

OK, risto was very bullish of monero when it was, what, 30-40 cents? Did you invest? I did, but then replaced monero with eth and felt smug for a while. Who knew that eth spectacular run would end up (for the moment) in a ditch, while monero zoomed? There was your 20Xbagger or $200K for every 10K invested.

Most people can't invested 10k in a god damn altcoin... get real. And sure, $200,000 dollars is awesome gains, but you aren't still rich, also it would have required that you sell at the peak.

With bitcoin, if you got in when it was worth cents, you still had a ton of margin to sell and still get rich. You could sell at 500 or at 1000, doesn't matter, if you got in early, you are rich as fuck.

With alts we haven't seen those amounts of gains unless:

1) You invested a lot (10k is a lot)
2) You sold at a very specific peak (extreme luck needed)

I don't see it. In any case, lets look at the future and search for other opportunities, we can't change the past. Problem is as we are saying, all alts suck and I don't see any of them delivering 4 figure % gains anymore.

[Biodom]

.
D=days since Jan 1, 2009
price=$800/(1+e^(13.147-.0071989*D))

this can't be right , sorry, since denominator is above 1 making the result/product equal or below 800 in perpetuity.
we already know that it is above 800 right now.

Yes, the price is above 800 right now.  And according to you, that makes the model invalid.

what makes your model invalid is that no matter what the value of D (days) is, the denominator is above 1, which means that you limit your product to $800 (max) or below. Such model has NO predictive value going forward since you need broader space for potential values (especially above 800).

[Biodom]

Most people can't invested 10k in a god damn altcoin... get real. And sure, $200,000 dollars is awesome gains, but you aren't still rich, also it would have required that you sell at the peak.
1) You invested a lot (10k is a lot)
2) You sold at a very specific peak (extreme luck needed)

I don't see it. In any case, lets look at the future and search for other opportunities, we can't change the past. Problem is as we are saying, all alts suck and I don't see any of them delivering 4 figure % gains anymore.

well, you almost definitely cannot get rich within 5-10 years without investing at least 10k in almost all cases (bitcoin being a unique exception in the past). There are no guarantees, but bitcoin, ethereum, monero, zec can definitely grow 1000% in 10 years. Will they? I don't know.

[cellard]

The number 1 thing you need to get rich like rpietila is luck. You need to be lucky, that's all.

"The harder I work, the luckier I get"
- Yogi Berra

Yeah. I started investing 5 years before 9/11, so there has been plenty of time to learn to be lucky.

Picking both BTC and XMR was lucky indeed.

As someone else pointed out, BTC gains were very rare. You also predicted some ridiculously high prices for BTC that never happened.

XMR was a good pick, I profited myself, I knew it would sooner or later get pumped with darknet hype, but now that hype is over.

The ETH smart contracts things is also over, it's been a fiasco.

So the question is clear: what's to look forward in the future to get rich within 5 years?

[thejaytiesto]

Most people can't invested 10k in a god damn altcoin... get real. And sure, $200,000 dollars is awesome gains, but you aren't still rich, also it would have required that you sell at the peak.
1) You invested a lot (10k is a lot)
2) You sold at a very specific peak (extreme luck needed)

I don't see it. In any case, lets look at the future and search for other opportunities, we can't change the past. Problem is as we are saying, all alts suck and I don't see any of them delivering 4 figure % gains anymore.

well, you almost definitely cannot get rich within 5-10 years without investing at least 10k in almost all cases (bitcoin being a unique exception in the past). There are no guarantees, but bitcoin, ethereum, monero, zec can definitely grow 1000% in 10 years. Will they? I don't know.

1000% in 10 years is nothing.

Let's say you own 10K worth of BTC (or any other coin that goes 1000% over 10 years, and btw who the hell wants to hold 10k worth of an altcoin for 10 years).
You end up with 100,000, which is nothing, and you waited 10 damn years to get there.
Working in a mediocre job in certain countries will make you more money than tha over 10 years.

Sorry but I don't see it. We are talking about making it big without having to risk your life savings in the process.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Since the thread is after all also a publication to keep 'em honest and point out who is behind my problems, let there be a crosslink to my Facebook, as there was a day when I felt really bad. I lamented the blindness of my wife to join in the persecution, to the point that I prayed to Jesus about the matter in public.

That helped. None of the persecution went away, no. I got some extension to the tax case, and they also advised me to avoid any voluntary split-the-finances deal with the wife as that might cause problems when my tax liability is sorted out. This seems to negatively affect my ability to see my children, though, as in the spirit of complete lawlessness, wife has kidnapped them and only lets me to see them if I come to Finland.

What is the ironic part is that when I asked,
ME: "I'd like to have the answer to an important question: "Why can I not see my kids?" Before I open it up in public."

AP: "You can meet them in Finland. Please in the future, only contact my lawyer."

ME: "Can you confirm that you are not participating or knowledgeable in any action that might threaten my physical freedom in case I come to Finland?"

AP: [no answer, 23 hours and counting, including the time that she has been tagged in FB to reply and has read both the original SMS and has been online repeatedly during the day]

What a sad, sad world we live in! Wives plotting against their husbands' lives!!    


"wife" is now used in place of the former "ex", to indicate that she is the only one who applied for divorce and it only came to my knowledge a few days ago. Until that, everything from both sides was just talk. God hates divorce, so I will also quit using the term as if I wanted something that God hates.

Do not bother to comment unless you read the FB post incl comments.

Why are you praying for human beings/idols?
My suggestion is to pray the Creator only.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Why are you praying for human beings/idols?
My suggestion is to pray the Creator only.

There is no other Name in which we are saved except that of Jesus, the Creator.

(Actually dropped in to say that I decided to spend a full day without Facebook and this forum, tomorrow. Just that you would not think they'd catch me on Sunday which is unlikely..)

Now I am realizing you indeed are being gaslighted.
Bear in mind, New testament was written 100-300 AD so nobody from the authors was present when this guy lived. The idea of New testament and xianity is to unify Roman empire, and in fact, the stories of New testament were known in the pagan religions. For instance - correct me if I am wrong - krishna was born from the virgin and is a combination of god and human (sounds familiar?).

When reading New testament it is actually annoying how much mistakes it contains (beginning of the very first verse).
Apparently you have been growing up in Xian environment and never studied New testament in academic manner but in religious manner and you believe anything your priest tells you on Sunday in the church - like it is expected from the sheep.

[TrueCryptonaire]

New testament contains so many childish mistakes that it is not even funny. Apparently you forgot to do your due diligence before you started reading it 5 years ago. You would have saved a lot of time if you would have researched beforehand if it is worth reading or not.
Bear in mind, God doesn't make mistakes and therefore a book that is full of them cannot be from God, not even inspired.
You should go to the basics and study first of all the mistakes of New testament, then make your conclusions.

[conspirosphere.tk]

We are talking about making it big without having to risk your life savings in the process.

That's what the alchemists trying to convert lead in gold wanted too. Then they invented paper money and econometric alchemic formulas, ruining the lives of many generations since then.

But shitcoins are back:

trumpcoin has gone up 15x in the last week and has 1k btc volume -- rivaled only by putincoin

[cellard]

We are talking about making it big without having to risk your life savings in the process.

That's what the alchemists trying to convert lead in gold wanted too. Then they invented paper money and econometric alchemic formulas, ruining the lives of many generations since then.

But shitcoins are back:

trumpcoin has gone up 15x in the last week and has 1k btc volume -- rivaled only by putincoin

Oh well, Trumpcoin... that's what im talking about (about how any shitcoin can pump, but how dumb it is realistically to hold shitcoins just in hopes your investment in actual shit doesn't stagnate into nothingness).

Im talking about investing in an altcoin that isn't a total fuckfest of nothing but pump and idiotic promotion.

Think about it. There is not a SINGLE altcoin worth holding long term in hopes of it going %2000+ ever again. So we would need to be looking at new interesting projects, but there are none.

I asked about Iconomi, but nobody gave a fuck to reply to me.

[Biodom]

Think about it. There is not a SINGLE altcoin worth holding long term in hopes of it going %2000+ ever again. So we would need to be looking at new interesting projects, but there are none.

I asked about Iconomi, but nobody gave a fuck to reply to me.

you think that ethereum cannot get to $200 or zec to $800 ever?
Zec was already $2000 close to beginning when it was highly illiquid; still, it is probably achievable.
I think that these numbers are quite possible, as is $16000 for btc. I am not sure yet about more than this.

[CoinCidental]

Think about it. There is not a SINGLE altcoin worth holding long term in hopes of it going %2000+ ever again. So we would need to be looking at new interesting projects, but there are none.

I asked about Iconomi, but nobody gave a fuck to reply to me.

you think that ethereum cannot get to $200 or zec to $800 ever?
Zec was already $2000 close to beginning when it was highly illiquid; still, it is probably achievable.
I think that these numbers are quite possible, as is $16000 for btc. I am not sure yet about more than this.

the first few ZEC sold for $5900 a piece i believe ......
BTC ,ETH ,XMR etc are all capable of exponential growth but from 700+ coins id agree most are complete shit