rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[fairGame]

Clarification on the tax issue from a US tax attorney.

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/21una0/i_am_a_tax_attorney_here_is_the_truth_about_1099s/

Thought it could be valuable since some of the posters here seem to have it slightly wrong.

Does this mean tax reporting is not needed for personal purchase ?

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[chessnut]

I sold all. Game over.

BINGO!

[Lowryder]

So Risto,  What are your feelings at the moment?  I assume now is a great time to buy.  When do you think the next rally will take place and what is your estimation on when we will reach the next ATH?  What do you think the next ATH will be?

I was thinking that I was surprised, yet again, that you were right about how the price was too high and that we would correct down to $400 or so. Yet here we are.  When do we just shut up and stop questioning you?  

- I think it is much more probable (70%) that 400 will hold vs. not. Even if it goes lower, it does not change anything except that price is better for buyers and worse for sellers. There is still exactly the same number of bitcoins in the market and the viability of the technology is exactly the same.
- Yes, it is a great time to buy. If you are thinking of buying bitcoins, you should do it now. Even if you were not thinking, the price is good.
- The tribulation is likely over in a week, at most the sub-500 prices persist until past April 15 (tax sales). In the end of the month we are definitely over 500, probably about at 600.
- We are now at -0.3 log-units in the long term trendline. This situation will persist until the next uptrend launches. Note that the trendline ascends 23% per month and it drags the price up with it.
- After about 2-3 months, we are near 1000 and there is a hurdle to get over it. It succeeds and the rally is ignited, catapulting us to a new ATH of 3000-7000 in July-August. From taking the old ATH of 1163 to making the new, it is only 20-40 days.

Always happy to help

And these are based on what?

-400 will not hold, it's going to be a long slide bear behavior til below 100$
-buying or selling are irrellevant...
-2-3 months will be around 100-200$
-we will never see four figers again...

I sold all. Game over.

Dude.  Risto just bought a castle in Estonia. I think that in itself should lend some credit to him being "good" at this.  Not to mention he has been right over and over and over again in his predictions.  

Why are you so sure 400 will not hold?  What is your reasoning based on?  Please tell!

Do yourself a huge favor and at least buy some back!  You don't have to listen to me, but so far the only real regrets I have is not following Risto's advice more often.  I own much thanks to him for not getting too emotional during the dips!  I have not sold out of panic because he seems to remain calm in "all weather."  In fact, if we can learn how to manage the ups and downs we can be thankful for them and use them to our advantage.

I love being called Dude, rather than mr Lebowski.  
Predictions over price are impossible to make. Price status floats
in the middle of ask and bid.

What I'm seeing here it's a fixed fight. Ownership base is too narrow.
Few highrollers can dumb their coin like that and price will??

I've been thinking coin a lot for 2 years now. What we've seen so far was "it".
There's nothing to expect anymore. Risto got a manor, well done.

Bitcoin will not work as:
-currency, too volatile
-mean of transaction, too slow and heavy
-value holder, for sure not

Due those factors Bitcoin will remain its status as marginal phenomenom. An experiment.
Mass adobtion WILL not happen. This will melt its value. Ask average Joe? He will ultimately
Mare the price howering between ask and bid....

[rpietila]

I sold all. Game over.

BINGO!

I work like a doctor day and night, trying to prevent it, but still - sometimes the patient dies. It is sad.

[chessnut]

Much appreciated Rpietila, you just gotta think about the ones you saved 

[Lowryder]

I sold all. Game over.

BINGO!

I work like a doctor day and night, trying to prevent it, but still - sometimes the patient dies. It is sad.

Risto,

Do you think bitcoin will work in these:

Bitcoin will not work as:
-currency
-mean of transaction
-value holder

You will answer, bitcoin is a technology, right?
All technologies will eventually be replaced by better ones right?
The way I see it, this was "it".

[BitchicksHusband]

Bitcoin will not work as:
-currency, too volatile
-mean of transaction, too slow and heavy
-value holder, for sure not

Due those factors Bitcoin will remain its status as marginal phenomenom. An experiment.
Mass adobtion WILL not happen. This will melt its value. Ask average Joe? He will ultimately
Mare the price howering between ask and bid....

1. The bigger Bitcoin gets, the more stable it gets and the easier it works as a currency.  So #1 is wrong.

2. Bitcoin is too slow to use at a checkout counter in a store.  But it's fantastic for internet orders.  Which way is the world going?  Also, Bitcoin pays off in only 1 hour as opposed to credit cards which can be recalled 120 days later.  So #2 is wrong.

3. It's holding value for me just fine.  Dollars will continue to inflate.  Bitcoin will continue to deflate.  So #3 is wrong.

[BitChick]

I love being called Dude, rather than mr Lebowski.  

I am from Southern California.  What can I say?

I only use it when I am really trying to get through to a friend.  "Like DUDE pay attention!"  

That said, I understand your skepticism but do not underestimate the risk of having ALL your coins sold.  What I see all the time is people feeling like Bitcoin is risky. Everything in life is risky.  Walking outside my door each day is risky.

That said, we don't know what will happen tomorrow.  All we can do is guess based on trends and the analysis of those trends.  Risto does an amazing job of understanding those trends and has been kind enough to give us some of his "secrets" if you will.  He could go smoke cigars in his castle but instead he "casts his pearls" out here for us "swine" to take advantage of.  I for one, am grateful.  And NOT having any coins at all could be the riskiest move to make.  I believe it is far worse than those that bought at $1100 and are still holding.  Why?  When the price gets to $5000 or more they may still have some coins.

[Lowryder]

I sold all. Game over.

BINGO!

I work like a doctor day and night, trying to prevent it, but still - sometimes the patient dies. It is sad.

Here's the bottom line, you just buy for a dollar and sell for two.
That all there is to it, and will be.

Will bitcoin be the best and most efficient mean to accomlish that?

There just isn't enough manors for every bitcoin owner.
That's the core of the problem.

[BitChick]

I sold all. Game over.

BINGO!

I work like a doctor day and night, trying to prevent it, but still - sometimes the patient dies. It is sad.

Here's the bottom line, you just buy for a dollar and sell for two.
That all there is to it, and will be.

Will bitcoin be the best and most efficient mean to accomlish that?

There just isn't enough manors for every bitcoin owner.
That's the core of the problem.

Or you buy for a dollar and sell for $1000, or $10,000. 

Bitcoin could very well be the most efficient means in our lifetime to accomplish that.  I have never had an investment that has performed as well in so short of a time.

All of us involved with Bitcoin are early adopters.  If we all hold long enough we could all buy our own "manors."  Risto just bought a little sooner than us.  The price could still increase 1000X. 

But if you think it has already run it's course and will no longer see those kinds of gains, feel free to sell.  But I think there is a far greater chance of it taking off in the next year or two than not.  The choice is totally yours though.

[BitchicksHusband]

I sold all. Game over.

BINGO!

I work like a doctor day and night, trying to prevent it, but still - sometimes the patient dies. It is sad.

Here's the bottom line, you just buy for a dollar and sell for two.
That all there is to it, and will be.

Will bitcoin be the best and most efficient mean to accomlish that?

There just isn't enough manors for every bitcoin owner.
That's the core of the problem.

Last year?

Yes, it was the best in the entire world.

Buy for $1 and sell for $100.

Nothing else came close.

[Lowryder]

I sold all. Game over.

BINGO!

I work like a doctor day and night, trying to prevent it, but still - sometimes the patient dies. It is sad.

Here's the bottom line, you just buy for a dollar and sell for two.
That all there is to it, and will be.

Will bitcoin be the best and most efficient mean to accomlish that?

There just isn't enough manors for every bitcoin owner.
That's the core of the problem.

Last year?

Yes, it was the best in the entire world.

Buy for $1 and sell for $100.

Nothing else came close.

"Shut the fuck up Donny!"

Can everyone do that? 7 billion people, maybe 2 have opportinity to the same.
How many times can you roll the dice?

Are familiar with market bubbles? Seeing any sign here? 

[Biodom]

Yes, it was the best in the entire world.

Buy for $1 and sell for $100.

Nothing else came close.

I guess it worked better for Zuckerberg's friend (Severin) who gave Zuck 19K to buy servers.
He is hanging out in Singapore with a few billions right now without having done much later on for FB success.
Angel investment is the best!
$19K in time of Lazslo's pizza would be worth more than ALL bitcoins then in existence; it was and still is less than 19mil of them in existence vs number required to cover 19K in 2009.

[chessnut]

Here's the bottom line, you just buy for a dollar and sell for two.
That all there is to it, and will be.

Will bitcoin be the best and most efficient mean to accomlish that?

There just isn't enough manors for every bitcoin owner.
That's the core of the problem.

the idea is not to sell at all.

it may not be the most efficient way, but so was the USD. network effect of money etc..... you believed that when the price was rising right?

no, not enough manors for every bitcoin owner, (and that is not a problem at all) but remember this; there are 12 million millionaires in the world, and 1500 billionaires. there are only 21 million bitcoins, and I imagine most of those people dont have any.

Are familiar with market bubbles? Seeing any sign here?  

we are all very familiar with bubbles. we have seen around 5 of them so far.

[Lowryder]

Here's the bottom line, you just buy for a dollar and sell for two.
That all there is to it, and will be.

Will bitcoin be the best and most efficient mean to accomlish that?

There just isn't enough manors for every bitcoin owner.
That's the core of the problem.

the idea is not to sell at all.

it may not be the most efficient way, but so was the USD. network effect of money etc..... you believed that when the price was rising right?

no, not enough manors for every bitcoin owner, (and that is not a problem at all) but remember this; there are 12 million millionaires in the world, and 1500 billionaires. there are only 21 million bitcoins, and I imagine most of those people dont have any.

Are familiar with market bubbles? Seeing any sign here?  

we are all very familiar with bubbles. we have seen around 5 of them so far.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-88RKIGqG6Ks/UehplB0WGCI/AAAAAAAAAE4/Xg60ALdohKA/s1600/t+m.jpg

How much would you pay a nice tulip bulb today? A dollar?

http://media.coindesk.com/2014/01/coindesk-bpi-chart.png

[Biodom]

but remember this; there are 12 million millionaires in the world, and 1500 billionaires. there are only 21 million bitcoins, and I imagine most of those people dont have any.

This thought occur to me as well. What to do for millionaires?
Ignore bitcoin and try to eliminate it OR try to slowly accumulate some?
I hope for scenario #2.
The numbers I have seen indicate 29mil millionares with total capital of $89 trln (89X10^10).
1% of of 89 trln is 890bil.
So, 13-14 (2014-2015) mil bitcoins have to reach 890bil in order for millionares to allocate 1% of their capital to bitcoin.
As such, bitcoin HAS to reach $63-68K/BTC, otherwise not enough value to allocate even 1% of millionaire's capital.
If you count based on a full 21mil of bitcoins with later allocation, then minimal value is $42K/BTC.

bought a few more today
trying to get a leg up on that rush

[gentlemand]

Here's the bottom line, you just buy for a dollar and sell for two.
That all there is to it, and will be.

Will bitcoin be the best and most efficient mean to accomlish that?

There just isn't enough manors for every bitcoin owner.
That's the core of the problem.

the idea is not to sell at all.

it may not be the most efficient way, but so was the USD. network effect of money etc..... you believed that when the price was rising right?

no, not enough manors for every bitcoin owner, (and that is not a problem at all) but remember this; there are 12 million millionaires in the world, and 1500 billionaires. there are only 21 million bitcoins, and I imagine most of those people dont have any.

Are familiar with market bubbles? Seeing any sign here?  

we are all very familiar with bubbles. we have seen around 5 of them so far.

How much would you pay a nice tulip bulb today? A dollar?

Ah, the devastating Tulip counter move. Why aren't you out enjoying your gains or minimised losses rather than wasting energy lingering here?

[aminorex]

Mining isn't producing a unique work. It is providing a repetitive service that is scripted by the network. The litmus test is that the network is the manager, not the miner. The network sets the difficulty, the protocol, etc..

A network cannot manage anyone.  Management flows in the opposite direction.  Mining a block produces a novel work.

[chessnut]

but remember this; there are 12 million millionaires in the world, and 1500 billionaires. there are only 21 million bitcoins, and I imagine most of those people dont have any.

This thought occur to me as well. What to do for millionaires?
Ignore bitcoin and try to eliminate it OR try to slowly accumulate some?
I hope for scenario #2.
The numbers I have seen indicate 29mil millionares with total capital of $89 trln (89X10^10).
1% of of 89 trln is 890bil.
So, 13-14 (2014-2015) mil bitcoins have to reach 890bil in order for millionares to allocate 1% of their capital to bitcoin.
As such, bitcoin HAS to reach $63-68K/BTC, otherwise not enough value to allocate even 1% of millionaire's capital.
If you count based on a full 21mil of bitcoins with later allocation, then minimal value is $42K/BTC.

yeah, I dont think they can just ignore it, though some may try.
they know all too well that their millions could be gone in a day. the rich must diversify.
I really see a panic buy situation in the not too distant future. some of those rich people are smart, the first few to buy in will double the value. thats a huge advantage to the rest.
Standard Bank in South Africa has flerted with the idea of bitcoin adoption - to serve customerslike an exchange(it is needed in SA). who owns most of that bank? Chinese!
the first banks to adopt will cause a huge wave. if you cant beat them, join them.

[BitchicksHusband]

Yes, it was the best in the entire world.

Buy for $1 and sell for $100.

Nothing else came close.

I guess it worked better for Zuckerberg's friend (Severin) who gave Zuck 19K to buy servers.

He gave him the servers last January?

And made more than 100 times last December?