rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[cbutters]

I used to always get  mad although I read and digested every post I saw that rpietila posted. I thought he was a naysayer, but slowly and especially now, I've come to realize he is spot on about a lot of things. Mad props to you bro, good luck at your party. I now put great faith in your June 27th prediction.

[rpietila]

I am going to my castle party and will be offline for a few days.

Pics or it didn't happen.

Y'know, at these levels, we rather hide from the camera. But I heard from the MC that a 17-seater Hummer Limo will be there. I personally doubt the number of seats though but he said that it was the coolest car in Estonia and especially suitable because everyone fits in.

[cAPSLOCK]

I am going to my castle party and will be offline for a few days.

[/quote]

May your castle party be a great memory for your whole life.

[sgbett]

The capitulation happened already. If you did not feel it, the reason is that here in the oldtimer threads in Bitcointalk people knew what was coming and were not afraid.

That's the nuts and bolts of it right there. I knew that once I started to think "maybe this time it's different" that we were there. I'm what MTC calls a bitcoin nutter. I'm not going to change my opinion based on price action. I'm in no hurry. It will come. So in the short to medium term, if I feel doubt, then I know it's one of the darkest days.

[Biodom]

Castle party?
Considering that moderator is into masks, etc.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_b-zpSnoHs

have fun!

[chessnut]

I also feel like the capitulation happened at 400, it was a textbook bottom with the irrational fear of gox and the panic selling.

but flash bang and it's done? the move has failed break the trend, and so these lows need to be retested. the forces that are playing here cannot resolve in mere days. we should expect a fib retracement of at least of 50% to cerca 500 after a few days of quiet and consolidation. This is really common in any primary wave.

600 is going to be tough territory, we have already hit a barrier. The shell shocked will not be interested in buying back until the price is much higher, and until then, where will the demand come from? only the elite investors, and rest assured, they do not want to drive the market out of their own reach.

So I think we have entered the slow and miserable part of the capitulation.

[hdbuck]

I also feel like the capitulation happened at 400, it was a textbook bottom with the irrational fear of gox and the panic selling.

but flash bang and it's done? the move has failed break the trend, and so these lows need to be retested. the forces that are playing here cannot resolve in mere days. we should expect a fib retracement of at least of 50% to cerca 500 after a few days of quiet and consolidation. This is really common in any primary wave.

600 is going to be tough territory, we have already hit a barrier. The shell shocked will not be interested in buying back until the price is much higher, and until then, where will the demand come from? only the elite investors, and rest assured, they do not want to drive the market out of their own reach.

So I think we have entered the slow and miserable part of the capitulation.

+1 although i kinda smell shotr positions there..

[MatTheCat]

I also feel like the capitulation happened at 400, it was a textbook bottom with the irrational fear of gox and the panic selling.

but flash bang and it's done? the move has failed break the trend, and so these lows need to be retested. the forces that are playing here cannot resolve in mere days. we should expect a fib retracement of at least of 50% to cerca 500 after a few days of quiet and consolidation. This is really common in any primary wave.

600 is going to be tough territory, we have already hit a barrier. The shell shocked will not be interested in buying back until the price is much higher, and until then, where will the demand come from? only the elite investors, and rest assured, they do not want to drive the market out of their own reach.

So I think we have entered the slow and miserable part of the capitulation.

I disagree.

I think we are about to come out of this rather tight trading range within the next 18 hours, and probably much sooner.

I think we will see break up, aided and abetted by shorters covering their positions, longs will pile in, and the whales (exchange associated traders I suspect) who are ensuring the market is pushed up when it really wants to go back down, well then dump into the rush of long interest, which will force a strong correction, aided and abetted by panicked sellers fearing a textbook retracement to $400 range. However, I don't see this getting down much lower than say $540, where the whale rats will buy back their dumped coins and take tidy profits for successfully fucking the market like a bitch once again. At this point, All indicators will be in place for drive up.

So I suspect a good bit of market volatility is within sight, problem is that it will be a market volatility that stings the majority, and enriches the few who are causing it to occur.

For the record, I reckon lower lows before new ATHs......but not before a good period of uptrending.

[CookieFactory]

Maybe I'm missing it, but I didn't see capitulation anywhere.  I frequent numerous forums on widely varying interests (and hence degrees of separation from Bitcoin ground zero), and in all the crypto-currency related threads, there was very little, if any, panic.  The only detractors were the usual beanie baby/tulip/ponzi types who never had any skin in the game to begin with.   

[MatTheCat]

Maybe I'm missing it, but I didn't see capitulation anywhere.  I frequent numerous forums on widely varying interests (and hence degrees of separation from Bitcoin ground zero), and in all the crypto-currency related threads, there was very little, if any, panic.  The only detractors were the usual beanie baby/tulip/ponzi types who never had any skin in the game to begin with.   

Cos it wasn't capitulation. Just a flash crash that everyone believes was the final capitulation and are now ready to pile in long....


......the price should trend higher for a bit from here, so why not join in and profit from the ride?

[hdbuck]

Maybe I'm missing it, but I didn't see capitulation anywhere.  I frequent numerous forums on widely varying interests (and hence degrees of separation from Bitcoin ground zero), and in all the crypto-currency related threads, there was very little, if any, panic.  The only detractors were the usual beanie baby/tulip/ponzi types who never had any skin in the game to begin with.   

Cos it wasn't capitulation. Just a flash crash that everyone believes was the final capitulation and are now ready to pile in long....


......the price should trend higher for a bit from here, so why not join in and profit from the ride?

because you might burn your ass in such bull trap.

[smoothie]

I am going to my castle party and will be offline for a few days.

I've done some market analysis and decided that 575 is a fair price for bitcoin as of now. It is now -0.114 below the trendline. During the slump last summer, starting from the capitulation low and ending the day when daily average ATH was broken (122 days by the way), we were on average -0.251 below the trend. If we stay at this price until April 13, 2014, we will reach -0.251. This is regard as realistic. There is no need to go down, the trendline is going up and takes care that we will sink further below trendline as is predicted by the model.

I see the possibility for a further low below 400 as slim at the moment. If further flashcrashes occur, my target for the low point is 450-500.

The capitulation happened already. If you did not feel it, the reason is that here in the oldtimer threads in Bitcointalk people knew what was coming and were not afraid. Outside, people and media and newbies were, and still are, asking if Bitcoin is dead. There was blood on the streets. Don't expect that it will turn worse. It cannot. It can only go up from here.

There is no need to be hasty with purchases. Bitcoin is not going down, but neither is it going up. The trendline logistics prevent it from rising, and I would see 700 as a shorting price if I was in the intention to gamble now. In reality I just transferred the overmajority of my trading capital to cold wallets. If you want to buy now, bidding 500-550 is probably enough.

It is frivolous to think that history could exactly predict future, but because Bitcoin behaves self-similarly like a fractal, and because my past predictions based on this method have been quite amazingly correct, let's just calculate the day when ATH will be taken: June 27, 2014.

From there, it will likely take only 30 days to make a new ATH that will last several months.

Unless the Chasm interrupts the underlying, 5-year old growth paradigm in a way that nothing in Bitcoin's history has yet been able to do.

I've forecast the same thing basically. $5000 by end of year we will hit.

[cAPSLOCK]

Uh oh... evidently there are going to be lots of booze and cigars at ristos castle party.

[isov]

Seems like 1-day chart macd is showing us a hint of green today! First time since the short rally in january turned to downtrend. This surely can not be a bad thing. I tend to be positive so I would like to say we are slowly starting to trend up from here, sure some bumpy chart is going to be drawn on the way but hopefully no visits to low 400's anymore.

[MatTheCat]

because you might burn your ass in such bull trap.

Perhaps bulls might get burned across the next 24-48 hours, but longer term than that, I don't think so.

However, do I think we have seen the lowest low?

erm.....NO.

[chessnut]

I disagree.

I think we are about to come out of this rather tight trading range within the next 18 hours, and probably much sooner.

I think we will see break up, aided and abetted by shorters covering their positions, longs will pile in, and the whales (exchange associated traders I suspect) who are ensuring the market is pushed up when it really wants to go back down, well then dump into the rush of long interest, which will force a strong correction, aided and abetted by panicked sellers fearing a textbook retracement to $400 range. However, I don't see this getting down much lower than say $540, where the whale rats will buy back their dumped coins and take tidy profits for successfully fucking the market like a bitch once again. At this point, All indicators will be in place for drive up.

So I suspect a good bit of market volatility is within sight, problem is that it will be a market volatility that stings the majority, and enriches the few who are causing it to occur.

For the record, I reckon lower lows before new ATHs......but not before a good period of uptrending.

Looks to me like the short trader squeeze has already occured with a 50% surge from 400. If it were to break upwards from this consolidation, it would have to also break a monthly down trend. 4 hour and 6 hour stochastic/rsi indicate over bought and signal sell.

I also dont see why longs should pour in, longs only just poured out, those traders will be too timid to re enter the market.

[MatTheCat]

Looks to me like the short trader squeeze has already occured with a 50% surge from 400. If it were to break upwards from this consolidation, it would have to also break a monthly down trend. 4 hour and 6 hour stochastic/rsi indicate over bought and signal sell.

I also dont see why longs should pour in, longs only just poured out, those traders will be too timid to re enter the market.

For that to have occurred, the said shorters would have to have shorted at something like $430? Who in their right mind would have done that?

Who who shorted at $600, $550, $500, or even $450, wouldn't have taken profits and gotten out?

I was expecting/fearing an upside short squeeze, if left to Bitfinex manipulators it would have transpired. But Huobi said NO!

There will be no short squeeze for those who shorted at $590. How much scope there is for profits beneath is another matter with so many shorts looking to come out their trades which they must do by buying back into market.

[chessnut]

For that to have occurred, the said shorters would have to have shorted at something like $430? Who would have done that?

Who who shorted at $600, $550, $500, or even $450, wouldn't have taken profits and gotten out?

I was expecting/fearing an upside short squeeze, if left to Bitfinex manipulators it would have transpired. But Huobi said NO!

There will be no short squeeze for those who shorted at $590. How much scope there is for profits beneath is another matter with so many shorts looking to come out their trades which they must do by buying back into market.

It does'nt matter where/when one shorts,  positions reverse when the market hits the bottom, be it panic or profit taking. I suppose you are refering to stoploss orders triggering. I dont know to what degree that effects the BTC market. the larger investors would not use them is such a volatile market.

I sold at 750, and I reversed my sell position at 500 because I saw there was a risk of breaking the monthly down trend, but the bull run has stalled, and Im looking for a move to the downside. I agree with rpietila that capitulation has occured, but we should see 500 again, and it woudnt at all surprise me if we saw a lower bottom, but I will not expect it, only hope.

[MatTheCat]

For that to have occurred, the said shorters would have to have shorted at something like $430? Who would have done that?

Who who shorted at $600, $550, $500, or even $450, wouldn't have taken profits and gotten out?

I was expecting/fearing an upside short squeeze, if left to Bitfinex manipulators it would have transpired. But Huobi said NO!

There will be no short squeeze for those who shorted at $590. How much scope there is for profits beneath is another matter with so many shorts looking to come out their trades which they must do by buying back into market.

It does'nt matter where/when one shorts,  positions reverse when the market hits the bottom, be it panic or profit taking. I suppose you are refering to stoploss orders triggering. I dont know to what degree that effects the BTC market. the larger investors would not use them is such a volatile market.

I sold at 750, and I reversed my sell position at 500 because I saw there was a risk of breaking the monthly down trend, but the bull run has stalled, and Im looking for a move to the downside. I agree with rpietila that capitulation has occured, but we should see 500 again, and it woudnt at all surprise me if we saw a lower bottom, but I will not expect it, only hope.

I think we are talking in different time frames. Bitcoin is presently wildy overbought after a huge correction, all the indicators are pointing down. 500 is not out of the question in the next couple of days and neither is lower than $500......but beyond the establishment of a support level (which absolutely will be well above $400) in the pending hours/days, Bitcoin will surely trend up for a bit, taking out a few important supports along the way before again reversing in my opinion, well short of any all time highs.

[molecular]

I am going to my castle party and will be offline for a few days.

Pics or it didn't happen.

Y'know, at these levels, we rather hide from the camera. But I heard from the MC that a 17-seater Hummer Limo will be there. I personally doubt the number of seats though but he said that it was the coolest car in Estonia and especially suitable because everyone fits in.

I just looked at the place on google maps. Awesome location, I must say.

Only one question remains: where is the sauna?