rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[Jungian]

Is it the newcomers after the massive media coverage of the gox incident?

New comers from the bankruptcy of "one of the biggest and oldest" exchanges, and theft of millions of USD worth of BTC?

The only thing that could happen would be old mt.gox users finally accepting losses and rebuy some of their lost coins.

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[MatTheCat]

However, I smell potential CCMF here. Bitstamp was doing fuck all. And then these massive ramps, the majority coming from just one account, possibly all of them coming from just one account. They happened during Eastern European office hours. Someone taking precautions due to Ukraine conflict?

Please excuse my ignorance but how can you tell that certain buys/sells are coming from the same account?

If there is a 3K order, which keeps jumping around in unison, you can be pretty sure it is just one person doing it.

[seleme]

However, I smell potential CCMF here. Bitstamp was doing fuck all. And then these massive ramps, the majority coming from just one account, possibly all of them coming from just one account. They happened during Eastern European office hours. Someone taking precautions due to Ukraine conflict?

Please excuse my ignorance but how can you tell that certain buys/sells are coming from the same account?

If there is a 3K order, which keeps jumping around in unison, you can be pretty sure it is just one person doing it.

Or group of it

Again, I wouldn't be surprised if it was a group rpietila is member of, just look at his last post, he looks pretty cocky

[ErisDiscordia]

However, I smell potential CCMF here. Bitstamp was doing fuck all. And then these massive ramps, the majority coming from just one account, possibly all of them coming from just one account. They happened during Eastern European office hours. Someone taking precautions due to Ukraine conflict?

Please excuse my ignorance but how can you tell that certain buys/sells are coming from the same account?

If there is a 3K order, which keeps jumping around in unison, you can be pretty sure it is just one person doing it.

I see now, thanks. For a confused moment I thought it might be possible to find this sort of data somewhere.

This whole Ukraine business is starting to smell more and more like Cyprus 2.0 to me (just on a much grander scale obviously). Gold is reacting pretty strongly, too and seems to be on its way to confirming a trend reversal, from what I can tell.

[hdbuck]

Well, Ukranians got until 3:00 GMT to surrender.  

-> http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/03/03/uk-ukraine-crisis-ultimatum-idUKBREA221AI20140303

Shit is about to hit the fan big time...

[doctor877]

Is it the newcomers after the massive media coverage of the gox incident?

New comers from the bankruptcy of "one of the biggest and oldest" exchanges, and theft of millions of USD worth of BTC?

The only thing that could happen would be old mt.gox users finally accepting losses and rebuy some of their lost coins.

Massive media coverage of bitcoin, because Mt.Gox. Lets say, that 1% of the people who heard of bitcoin, got it, and decided to buy. But I agree it's more likely that, goxbtc owners are forced to rebuy.

[Jungian]

Well, Ukranians got until 3:00 GMT to surrender.  

-> http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/03/03/uk-ukraine-crisis-ultimatum-idUKBREA221AI20140303

Shit is about to hit the fan big time...

No. Deadline passed. Nothing happend. Same as yesterday

Russia claimes there never was a deadline.
http://rt.com/news/russia-dismiss-ultimatum-ukraine-644/

Haven't seen the last of this yet though. Rising tensions in Europe will continue over the next years and military conflict will probably ensue

[log2exp]

Spent hours after hours time going through Risto and MadTheCat threads. Decided to follow Risto's suggestion to hold, and so far the strategy worked out to be correct for the moment.

Although the centralized mining is on the rise, I'd like to see Risto's take on this one. I can really only think this one could be a near-medium term bump on the road.

[MatTheCat]

This is the quality TA thread, right?

Does anyone want to analyse the double pennant formation on Stamp right now? The second has formed at a lower level than the first.

[CookieFactory]

I actually did buy some more coins a couple days back so thanks for that 

What are the chances that we'll go up to around 710-720, fail to break out, and head back down from there? 

[sgbett]

This is the quality TA thread, right?

Does anyone want to analyse the double pennant formation on Stamp right now? The second has formed at a lower level than the first.

Here is my analysis:

The price went up, then it went down a bit, then it went up and down. I think this indicates that over the next few days the price will go up and down. You should probably buy if you have cash you don't mind losing, and sell if you are short of cash.

Shit. Wrong thread, that should have been in trading 101.

[MatTheCat]

This is the quality TA thread, right?

Does anyone want to analyse the double pennant formation on Stamp right now? The second has formed at a lower level than the first.

Here is my analysis:

The price went up, then it went down a bit, then it went up and down. I think this indicates that over the next few days the price will go up and down. You should probably buy if you have cash you don't mind losing, and sell if you are short of cash.

Shit. Wrong thread, that should have been in trading 101.

Hey, don't knock the MatTheCat 101 threads.

Just read over my 101 possible break out analysis....pretty good as it turned out, except I ended backing the wrong of the two horses. One looked increasingly like a foregone conclusion, the other required an X-Factor.

X-Factor it was.

I lost on my short bet but did actually go long Bitcoin as soon as $580 was breached...then I sold at $604...two seconds later, it crashed to $582 HA FOOLS! Oh wait a minute, it is now $618, I had better buy back in....wash rinse repeat.

[SlipperySlope]

The capitulation happened already. If you did not feel it, the reason is that here in the oldtimer threads in Bitcointalk people knew what was coming and were not afraid. Outside, people and media and newbies were, and still are, asking if Bitcoin is dead. There was blood on the streets. Don't expect that it will turn worse. It cannot. It can only go up from here.

Wisdom. And ironic that a problem with Mt.Gox was again significant in the collapse.

[sgbett]

This is the quality TA thread, right?

Does anyone want to analyse the double pennant formation on Stamp right now? The second has formed at a lower level than the first.

Here is my analysis:

The price went up, then it went down a bit, then it went up and down. I think this indicates that over the next few days the price will go up and down. You should probably buy if you have cash you don't mind losing, and sell if you are short of cash.

Shit. Wrong thread, that should have been in trading 101.

Hey, don't knock the MatTheCat 101 threads.

Just read over my 101 possible break out analysis....pretty good as it turned out, except I ended backing the wrong of the two horses. One looked increasingly like a foregone conclusion, the other required an X-Factor.

X-Factor it was.

I lost on my short bet but did actually go long Bitcoin as soon as $580 was breached...then I sold at $604...two seconds later, it crashed to $582 HA FOOLS! Oh wait a minute, it is now $618, I had better buy back in....wash rinse repeat.

Not knocking them my TA was hardly 'advanced' and somewhat tongue in cheek.

[Peter R]

You guys just have different investment styles.  Here's my caricature:

MatTheCat is always checking the data, guessing whether the walls are real or fake, drawing lines on charts, analyzing psychology, and going short or long as the situation and his intuition dictates.

Sgbett sits backs, sipping his scotch, and he waits........and waits......he hears the screams from outside, sees the blood in the streets, takes a large position, and returns to his lounge. 

[creekbore]

However, I smell potential CCMF here. Bitstamp was doing fuck all. And then these massive ramps, the majority coming from just one account, possibly all of them coming from just one account. They happened during Eastern European office hours. Someone taking precautions due to Ukraine conflict?

Please excuse my ignorance but how can you tell that certain buys/sells are coming from the same account?

If there is a 3K order, which keeps jumping around in unison, you can be pretty sure it is just one person doing it.

I see now, thanks. For a confused moment I thought it might be possible to find this sort of data somewhere.

This whole Ukraine business is starting to smell more and more like Cyprus 2.0 to me (just on a much grander scale obviously). Gold is reacting pretty strongly, too and seems to be on its way to confirming a trend reversal, from what I can tell.

But remember...according to some here news has no impact on either sentiment or price.

[MatTheCat]

But remember...according to some here news has no impact on either sentiment or price.

Most of the time it doesn't.

Just think of headlines like "Bitcoin hits $1000 on Zynga uptake"

Utter bullshit. Bitcoin hit $1000 resistance level as top after recovery from crash. It is misconceptions like these which lead to n00bs being utterly shocked that the Bitcoins that they panic bought on the back of someone on the news saying nice things about Bitcoin, are fast losing value.

With the Ukraine situation however, if it is indeed the case that some wealthy citizens are moving money into Bitcoin for whatever reasons, then that is totally different kind of news. That is what I would call pro-active news. It is news of people in a situation, where they are going to pile a lot of wealth into Bitcoin...if that were the case, and I am not 100% that it is, but if it were the case, then where is the buying power today?

It's already past lunchtime in Kiev? It aint happening.

[EuroTrash]

I believe someone in Ukraine (or in Russia) DID panic and bought bitcoin.

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/swiss-money-laundering-probe-yanukovych-22714099

While the market was maybe looking for an excuse to panic buy.

[Queeq]

But remember...according to some here news has no impact on either sentiment or price.

Most of the time it doesn't.

Just think of headlines like "Bitcoin hits $1000 on Zynga uptake"

Utter bullshit. Bitcoin hit $1000 resistance level as top after recovery from crash. It is misconceptions like these which lead to n00bs being utterly shocked that the Bitcoins that they panic bought on the back of someone on the news saying nice things about Bitcoin, are fast losing value.

With the Ukraine situation however, if it is indeed the case that some wealthy citizens are moving money into Bitcoin for whatever reasons, then that is totally different kind of news. That is what I would call pro-active news. It is news of people in a situation, where they are going to pile a lot of wealth into Bitcoin...if that were the case, and I am not 100% that it is, but if it were the case, then where is the buying power today?

It's already past lunchtime in Kiev? It aint happening.

The majority here, in Ukraine, simply buy USD or EUR. I don't think serious money flowing into Bitcoin. People are mostly skeptical about it, even highly qualified IT specialists.

[Okurkabinladin]

Well, Ukranians got until 3:00 GMT to surrender.  

-> http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/03/03/uk-ukraine-crisis-ultimatum-idUKBREA221AI20140303

Shit is about to hit the fan big time...

It´s a propaganda by westerners, who back Maidan (in this case CNN, who refused to give their source), Russians demented this, not that they have reason for ultimatum in situation, when Ukrainians defect to them in thousands. Simply FUD.

http://en.itar-tass.com/world/721748