rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[AnonyMint]

I don't know what a cascade model is? Care to summarize the significance or am I left to my own googling?

Informal language referring to self-organized criticality, as e.g. the Gutenberg-Richter law.  The seminal reference is Bak,Tang,Wiesenfeld (1987).

Now I will give you some insight into how I merge or generalize cross disciplines. People ask me to give them a list of books I read. I don't. I just think about things and read research papers sometimes, etc..

I believe this can also be related conceptually (and probably also analytically) to Taleb's Antifragility.

I only skimmed these references yet it appears what this is generatively saying is it is infinitely costly to have infinite disorder (i.e. perfectly equiprobable systems or infinite degrees-of-freedom), and we express such relationships asymptotically. Actually I have explored this independently at my blog (and also my work on computer language type theory, or let's just say semantics) wherein I have reasoned that for anything to exist, infinity can't be observed.

I believe this is an overly broad concept (yeah long-tails happen, so what?) to use to use as a rationale against a much more well supported specific theory that I promulgated about Bitcoin's adoption fitting a log-logistic rate of adoption.

hi, i just have one question. i dont mind the mid term bleeding etc.. sorry to be asking the obvious whats its like for the long term, > 1 year, is it going to recover? i just need to know that i can keep holding.

Absolutely. The chances of it not are astronomically small.

The issue I am raising is the rate of growth going forward is probably not as high as what Risto has been promulgating. I am seeing something on the order of $4000 - $10,000 by the end of 2015. $100,000 is mostly fantasy with about the same probability as Bitcoin going to $50. $100,000 is more probable than Bitcoin going to $10 and never recovering, but that isn't saying much.

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[rpietila]

Absolutely. The chances of it not are astronomically small.

Now you are bullshitting our newbies, that is not nice!

I would say it is a 50/50 coin flip, but if you win, you get 10 times return, if you lose, you just lose what you had. Invest accordingly.

An Estonian newspaper has translated all my ramblings and published them, found a good photo of me, and ordered a drone strike to my castle. See the totality here.

[farfiman]

Absolutely. The chances of it not are astronomically small.

Now you are bullshitting our newbies, that is not nice!

I would say it is a 50/50 coin flip, but if you win, you get 10 times return, if you lose, you just lose what you had. Invest accordingly.

An Estonian newspaper has translated all my ramblings and published them, found a good photo of me, and ordered a drone strike to my castle. See the totality here.

Was the youtube video( neat!) filmed by the drone ?

[AnonyMint]

Absolutely. The chances of it not are astronomically small.

Now you are bullshitting our newbies, that is not nice!

I would say it is a 50/50 coin flip, but if you win, you get 10 times return, if you lose, you just lose what you had. Invest accordingly.

An Estonian newspaper has translated all my ramblings and published them, found a good photo of me, and ordered a drone strike to my castle. See the totality here.

You realize we said the same thing mathematically. You are simply saying it is worth betting a smaller amount on smaller probabilities.

In that case, you should be buying altcoins but you don't. Ostensibly you don't want any development that could actually help humanity. You talk about how Bitcoin is going to help the world, but the facts are it is fully centralized and is driving us towards a fiat result and thus it can only be a world governance fiat result.

How you could possibly deny that, I can not comprehend. You would have to explain it to me.

And that is why I am not happy with you. At least I don't hide it.

Perhaps you don't comprehend why diversity is critical to freedom?! But I find it very difficult to believe you don't understand that already.

I can't figure you out. Have you joined the cabal?

Edit: it like, "dude what happened to you, did you get infected with a Bitcoin delirium virus". Why not continue to be a speculator and play to the resilience of diverse bets? What caused you to become so monotonically myopic on Bitcoin at the cost of every other smaller probability with higher potential gains?

That is why you need for that $100,000 to be true. Because you don't want to admit to yourself that you need to be buying altcoins.

Did you just get lazy? Yeah that is the only rational explanation (and add also your fantasy about being a Baron and having a roundtable with Knights). I'm sure you didn't join the cabal literally, but sort of figuratively with your goal to have lifestyle as an aristocrat blueblood.

I am thinking that you actually hate nerds. You don't want it to be true that a nerd could be more powerful than a blueblood. I am thinking it makes you very uncomfortable the prospect that there could be continual competition and technological disruption.

Or maybe you believe in the Moldbug theory, "there can only be one" (winner in crypto-currency). If Moldbug is correct, it is in direct opposition to his philosophy of the Dark Enlightenment.

[creekbore]

As for scary pictures.  I notice there's a lot of pictures used here to describe bright, cheery scenarios, which could be as equally baseless.

Pretty much every indicator that shows we are having a bad time you dismiss --- each that predicts optimism you embrace: this seems highly unscientific.

My judgement on the fundamentals and potential of Bitcoin is completely unchanged from 2013.

I don't doubt it.  Where am I questioning this?  You keep attributing me with some sort of malice which isn't there.

But you use EMA as a buy/sell signal (and I'm sure you cross reference with other indicators as well).
I'm pretty sure you have some personal trading rules based on those signals and that you are disciplined enough to stick to those rules and signals.  

I imagine you don't dismiss those signals when they tell you something you don't like.

The weekly standard EMA hasn't crossed yet but when/if it does it would be appropriate to consider that we are in a bear market similar to the last time they were crossed, roughly Dec 2012.  

You can "weigh" all the signals and come up with a holistic impression, but lets not rubbish them just because they don't fit a personal projection (which you are not doing, btw but that is what Aminorex is telling me).

[rpietila]

My judgement on the fundamentals and potential of Bitcoin is completely unchanged from 2013.

I don't doubt it.  Where am I questioning this?  You keep attributing me with some sort of malice which isn't there.

Then it is in your eye If I quote something and say something in response, it may be confirmation or rejection or only distantly related to the quoted part, like in this case.

[AnonyMint]

Risto I thought we were working to liberate the world? What are you doing now?

I don't understand you now. What happened to you?


Okay I remember you saying that the masses need to be governed. Maybe you just figure it is destiny so embrace Bitcoin no matter what. But why give up on every other smaller possibility with potentially higher gains?

I know. Because even if you put 10% of your networth in them it wouldn't significantly increase the 100% of your networth?

Thus it is just laziness?

This is what happens to big capital. It gets lazy. And that is why capital must always be destroyed, else the world will not prosper.

We don't need bluebloods. We need to destroy the bluebloods algorithmically.

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

Risto I thought we were working to liberate the world? What are you doing now?

I don't understand you now. What happened to you?

The loudest liberators are usually the biggest crooks. Always been like this, and always will.

[AnonyMint]

Risto I thought we were working to liberate the world? What are you doing now?

I don't understand you now. What happened to you?

The loudest liberators are usually the biggest crooks. Always been like this, and always will.

That is not true. The loudest are small time crooks. The biggest crooks are hidden. And that is a fact.

Please if you want to say I am crook, just say it.

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

Risto I thought we were working to liberate the world? What are you doing now?

I don't understand you now. What happened to you?

The loudest liberators are usually the biggest crooks. Always been like this, and always will.

That is not true. The loudest are small time crooks. The biggest crooks are hidden. And that is a fact.

Please if you want to say I am crook, just say it.

Well, that depends a lot. For instance in politics, the loudest liberators are the biggest crooks. And if you take a subtle person, and compare him to a person that is very loud on plans to "liberate everyone from themselves", then it's a lot more probable that the loud one is really a crook. The same mostly applies to the "bitcoin world liberators", who act like they are about monetary freedom, but really they are after personal wealth by wealth redistribution, while not caring that bitcoin would actually create bigger distribution problems then we currently have.

[AnonyMint]

I am still "mopping up excess liquidity" from bitcoin markets. So if you want to sell at a slight discount to the exchanges, contact me.

I understand you want to buy as cheap as possible - but why anyone would sell you btc below market prices?

I think that should be obvious. Exchanges are a bunch of crooks who steal both your USD and BTC, and as a bonus your identity. Small amounts I can instapay -7%, larger amounts up to BTC1,000: -5%.

Okay folks there you have it. So if Bitpay is not a crook, then you can expect to lose 14% of your capital in exchange spreads (+fees) just to support Bitcoin merchants by irrationally spending your BTC to them via Bitpay, then buying back BTC from Risto (or similarly uncrooked market maker).

Risto I thought we were working to liberate the world? What are you doing now?

I don't understand you now. What happened to you?

The loudest liberators are usually the biggest crooks. Always been like this, and always will.

That is not true. The loudest are small time crooks. The biggest crooks are hidden. And that is a fact.

Please if you want to say I am crook, just say it.

Well, that depends a lot. For instance in politics, the loudest liberators are the biggest crooks. And if you take a subtle person, and compare him to a person that is very loud on plans to "liberate everyone from themselves", then it's a lot more probable that the loud one is really a crook. The same mostly applies to the "bitcoin world liberators", who act like they are about monetary freedom, but really they are after personal wealth by wealth redistribution, while not caring that bitcoin would actually create bigger distribution problems then we currently have.

Risto is loudly (given his repetition and stature as a "whale") pushing the concept that Bitcoin is growing 12X in price per year which is causing followers to dream of fantastical wealth which helps them to become irrational (as evident by frienemy's post which follows this one). Whereas my crudely fitted log-logistic adoption model says very roughly 10X every 16 to 20 months by now (was faster before and will be slower in the future).

[frienemy]

Long time lurker about to post for the first time here.

There are three reasons for my registering on the forum after lurking for a whole year:

1 - Eventually I can put some people on ignore
2 - In the distant future I may have time to start some kind of bitcoin charity, so that those who became rich with bitcoin can give at least a little bit back to those left behind (e.g. most of the African countries)
3 - Now I can thank a few of you guys

I will start with -3- right now:

Mr. Pietilä, I would like to thank you. Some people don't get the importance of your threads for people like me. Right now, I am not very wealthy. If I had invested in BTC when I first heard about it in 2011, I would be. I invested from spring to summer 2013 and almost decided to get out of Bitcoin again, because I didn't understand it completely. Then I read a lot of your posts, I read a lot of what other people think about you (positive and negative) and then made up my mind about the opportunities coming along with Bitcoin. It was you and a few others on this forum who let me understand the power of bitcoin. Working in a German tax business and being capable of thinking myself, I don't follow mindlessly and I'm definitively not here for kissing someone's backside. I'm fully aware that no one on this forum is able to provide spot-on predictions all of the time. But I am still happy to have increased my amount of BTCs over the last few months (though still being stuck in the 2-digit range). I will keep on hodling and even if Bitcoin fails, I don't feel like a piglet, I don't feel like mislead sheeple. I feel like having participated in the right thing.

Nonetheless, I have to admit that fear has a certain impact on me right now, but it just doesn't make sense to sell all my bitcoins right now. I wonder what impact a crash to the 200s would have on the anticipated ATH in summer. Would that lower the top?

[Trolololo]

1 Just to confirm: is the vertical scale stretched on the photoshopped version? 
2 The growth spurt predicted in % for the "super bubble" is actually bigger than the growth spurt in 2011, correct? 
3 Do you know what the scaling factor is?

1 It is strechted vertically and horizontally.

2 Yes, but changing the strechting just a little makes the top much smaller or bigger.

3 No. Made by hand. But it can be calculated easily, because the time and price rulers have been strechted together with the candles.



I think that the most important fact of that chart comparison is that the superbubble is a possibility, the nice fitting of shape of the charts, and the order of magnitude of the price and time.

Until we break the roof of the 4 months downtrend channel, the probability of superbubble remains very low.
I guess it's around 10% by now. May be less. May be more. Who knows?
Let's wait for one or two weeks...

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

I am still "mopping up excess liquidity" from bitcoin markets. So if you want to sell at a slight discount to the exchanges, contact me.

I understand you want to buy as cheap as possible - but why anyone would sell you btc below market prices?

I think that should be obvious. Exchanges are a bunch of crooks who steal both your USD and BTC, and as a bonus your identity. Small amounts I can instapay -7%, larger amounts up to BTC1,000: -5%.

Okay folks there you have it. So if Bitpay is not a crook, then you can expect to lose 14% of your capital in exchange spreads (+fees) just to support Bitcoin merchants by irrationally spending your BTC to them via Bitpay, then buying back BTC from Risto (or similarly uncrooked market maker).

Risto I thought we were working to liberate the world? What are you doing now?

I don't understand you now. What happened to you?

The loudest liberators are usually the biggest crooks. Always been like this, and always will.

That is not true. The loudest are small time crooks. The biggest crooks are hidden. And that is a fact.

Please if you want to say I am crook, just say it.

Well, that depends a lot. For instance in politics, the loudest liberators are the biggest crooks. And if you take a subtle person, and compare him to a person that is very loud on plans to "liberate everyone from themselves", then it's a lot more probable that the loud one is really a crook. The same mostly applies to the "bitcoin world liberators", who act like they are about monetary freedom, but really they are after personal wealth by wealth redistribution, while not caring that bitcoin would actually create bigger distribution problems then we currently have.

Risto is loudly pushing the concept that Bitcoin is growing 12X in price per year. Whereas my crudely fitted log-logistic adoption model says very roughly 10X every 16 to 20 months.

I disagree with both of you because bitcoin seems to have trouble getting past certain financial thresholds that are critical to further growth.
I still don't care much about bitcoin, but I care about the idea that bitcoin brought forward. To me, bitcoin's maximum potential is the cash transfer service, but it will never reach there with the current quality market system. I'm optimistic about the future and waiting to see see if someone could actually create an open-sourced digital currency, that would work like an actual currency, not like an overly simplified play money.

[AnonyMint]

Long time lurker about to post for the first time here.

There are three reasons for my registering on the forum after lurking for a whole year:

1 - Eventually I can put some people on ignore
2 - In the distant future I may have time to start some kind of bitcoin charity, so that those who became rich with bitcoin can give at least a little bit back to those left behind (e.g. most of the African countries)
3 - Now I can thank a few of you guys

I will start with -3- right now:

Mr. Pietilä, I would like to thank you. Some people don't get the importance of your threads for people like me. Right now, I am not very wealthy. If I had invested in BTC when I first heard about it in 2011, I would be. I invested from spring to summer 2013 and almost decided to get out of Bitcoin again, because I didn't understand it completely. Then I read a lot of your posts, I read a lot of what other people think about you (positive and negative) and then made up my mind about the opportunities coming along with Bitcoin. It was you and a few others on this forum who let me understand the power of bitcoin. Working in a German tax business and being capable of thinking myself, I don't follow mindlessly and I'm definitively not here for kissing someone's backside. I'm fully aware that no one on this forum is able to provide spot-on predictions all of the time. But I am still happy to have increased my amount of BTCs over the last few months (though still being stuck in the 2-digit range). I will keep on hodling and even if Bitcoin fails, I don't feel like a piglet, I don't feel like mislead sheeple. I feel like having participated in the right thing.

Nonetheless, I have to admit that fear has a certain impact on me right now, but it just doesn't make sense to sell all my bitcoins right now. I wonder what impact a crash to the 200s would have on the anticipated ATH in summer. Would that lower the top?

I know you weren't addressing me and don't want to hear my opinion, but I think your post exemplifies some very important issues.

First of all, it is too late to sell. The time to sell was at $600 when I first posted in this thread to say that the chart looks like the silver chart. I sold my remaining BTC in the $600s.

The chance that we go below $400 then $300 gets exceedingly smaller, thus it is too risky to sell now at $420. You could have sold at $490 after when I wrote in this thread 2 days ago that it was a bull trap and I was sure we are going lower.

If you think Bitcoin is going to $100,000 in 6 months, then you are not calculating probabilities correctly. If you said, there is a 1% chance Bitcoin goes to $100,000 by 2017, there is no way I can disagree. If you increased it to 10% by 2017, I would quibble but I wouldn't have strong confidence to disagree. If you raised it to 33% in the next 6 months as Risto is, I would say you are irrational and emphatically disagree.

So my point in replying to you is you will never be wealthy because you whorEship fantasy. Your excuse that you will give to charity is just a veiled facade to cover for your inability to actually go create something of value in this world that makes you wealthy.

What I am trying to say is there is too much fucking delusion going on here in this thread and in the Bitcoin space in general.

And that is typical of all pyramid schemes and mass manias.

I only see snake oil salesmen here, perhaps unintentional due to delirium.

Edit: And then...

I disagree with both of you because bitcoin seems to have trouble getting past certain financial thresholds that are critical to further growth.
I still don't care much about bitcoin, but I care about the idea that bitcoin brought forward. To me, bitcoin's maximum potential is the cash transfer service, but it will never reach there with the current quality market system. I'm optimistic about the future and waiting to see see if someone could actually create an open-sourced digital currency, that would work like an actual currency, not like an overly simplified play money.

You surprise me. And I incorrectly appraised you apparently.

Hahaha on myself. I confused you with frienemy .

I have agreed with your posts.

[creekbore]

My judgement on the fundamentals and potential of Bitcoin is completely unchanged from 2013.

I don't doubt it.  Where am I questioning this?  You keep attributing me with some sort of malice which isn't there.

Then it is in your eye If I quote something and say something in response, it may be confirmation or rejection or only distantly related to the quoted part, like in this case.

What?

Seriously, I have no idea what you are talking about, now.

If you are so sure of your beliefs why not engage in some discussion instead of descending into cryptic, personal attacks. 

[AnonyMint]

I think that the most important fact of that chart comparison is that the superbubble is a possibility, the nice fitting of shape of the charts, and the order of magnitude of the price and time.

Everything is a possibility. We can fit an elephant to a mouse using a math model.

The real value is in correctly discerning probabilities.

[frienemy]

I am open to read any helpful response that is not lacking certain components of human communication. You, however, assume that I put up a facade for myself, you assume that I have the inability to create something of value (which I do btw almost every day after work), you assume that it's all about me getting wealthy, you insult me, you state something neither Risto nor I have said in the way you display --> you lack certain components of human communication --> communication with you seems to be unsuccessful

It's a shame, because you have some good points to make, but you just spoil your wisdom. I won't respond anymor but this one time to you, because more responses would not make sense, so please feel free to disprove all of my words in your next response without me answering.

If you think Bitcoin is going to $100,000 in 6 months, then you are not calculating probabilities correctly. If you said, there is a 1% chance Bitcoin goes to $100,000 by 2017, there is no way I can disagree. If you increased it to 10% by 2017, I would quibble but I wouldn't have strong confidence to disagree. If you raised it to 33% in the next 6 months as Risto is, I would say you are irrational and emphatically disagree.

So my point in replying to you is you will never be wealthy because you whorEship fantasy. Your excuse that you will give to charity is just a veiled facade to cover for your inability to actually go create something of value in this world that makes you wealthy.

[AnonyMint]

I am open to read any helpful response that is not lacking certain components of human communication. You, however, assume that I put up a facade for myself, you assume that I have the inability to create something of value (which I do btw almost every day after work), you assume that it's all about me getting wealthy, you insult me, you state something neither Risto nor I have said in the way you display --> you lack certain components of human communication --> communication with you seems to be unsuccessful

It's a shame, because you have some good points to make, but you just spoil your wisdom. I won't respond anymor but this one time to you, because more responses would not make sense, so please feel free to disprove all of my words in your next response without me answering.

If you think Bitcoin is going to $100,000 in 6 months, then you are not calculating probabilities correctly. If you said, there is a 1% chance Bitcoin goes to $100,000 by 2017, there is no way I can disagree. If you increased it to 10% by 2017, I would quibble but I wouldn't have strong confidence to disagree. If you raised it to 33% in the next 6 months as Risto is, I would say you are irrational and emphatically disagree.

So my point in replying to you is you will never be wealthy because you whorEship fantasy. Your excuse that you will give to charity is just a veiled facade to cover for your inability to actually go create something of value in this world that makes you wealthy.

You wrote you are not wealthy. You wrote you hope to become wealthy because of Risto. You wrote your motivation is to give to charity.

You don't get wealthy for those reasons.

To get wealthy requires being able to think for yourself correctly. God doesn't entrust talents in surrogates who are just following another person. He would put the talents in the person who is actually making the decisions.

And people don't like to hear someone tell them frankly.

[rpietila]

My judgement on the fundamentals and potential of Bitcoin is completely unchanged from 2013.

I don't doubt it.  Where am I questioning this?  You keep attributing me with some sort of malice which isn't there.

Then it is in your eye If I quote something and say something in response, it may be confirmation or rejection or only distantly related to the quoted part, like in this case.

What?

Seriously, I have no idea what you are talking about, now.

If you are so sure of your beliefs why not engage in some discussion instead of descending into cryptic, personal attacks. 

Sorry. I also have no idea.

Perhaps it is my habit of quoting someone and then talking about something unrelated with harsh words, which in no way is intended to attack the previous poster.