rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[Todorius]

And of course the chinese FUD was perfectly, absolutely perfectly time-matched to the spot where the resistance line would have been crossed.
Of course, just to be on the safe side that it will really bounce off the resistance.
Some people really know how to manipulate a market 

They would not do it if they did not believe that it will go vastly higher, so...  Just make sure you always buy low and sell high, we absolutely need more such people because the current volatility is so high (and buying low, selling high reduces it!)

Exactly my thoughts, Rpietila 
It really felt like they were thinking: "Oh damn, this is getting out of hand, resistance will be easily overcome, we need to quickly come up with another FUD!"
I was lucky to buy in the high 300's during the last dip. I saw the chance, immediately transferred two salary months worth of euros to bitstamp, and was unfortunately
one day too late, but I still could buy in the high 300's/low 400's.

But of course I had to learn this lesson of buying the dips through numerous fails when I was a noob one year ago (and still am noobish on occasions).

I'm trying my best to reduce volatility, but I fear I'm too small a fish to make any difference, hehe  (This hopefully will gradually change in the coming years to some degree).

I intend to continue buying the dips in the coming years, every single time I can spare money

[SlipperySlope]

Here is the latest Huobi chart at 3-day resolution to show more clearly the short-term trend reversal at the long term resistance trend line. The trendline perhaps did not predict the reversal but perhaps was a landmark so to speak for traders who routinely draw such trends on the own charts.

Clearly Huobi is leading Bitstamp lower.

[holomen]

Firstly,

Thank you, Risto, for deep insights and knowledge. Which I've been following since my first encounter and BTC purchase on 2013.10. I'm collecting and buying BTC since.

I do not have economical/trading education/experience, but have an opinion:

For me, It seems that China is hoarding BTC like they hoard physical Gold. And they are clearly manipulating the price since positive news from US in November. I think this speculation is part of political thing, to say one and do the opposite. Of course for a cause to establish strong national position in BTC as well as gold and get even more near on leading world economy and reserve currency (RMB) status.

On fiatleak.com trade in China is huge. It would be really interesting to see actual percentage of China BTC holders Vs. other countries. If this is be technically possible.

As these moves won't last so long, upcoming few weeks will be great time to buy more BTC for this year.

we absolutely need more such people because the current volatility is so high (and buying low, selling high reduces it!)

I feel that all BTC community should be thinking more about supporting self-made (pref. social) marketing efforts Like Bitcoinbigfoot. Every invested Satoshi in this kind of institution would bring even more significant value to BTC community. I believe that movie ,,the Rise and Rise of Bitcoin'' could spread the adoption further down the road for masses, but I'm seriously afraid that Hollywood hill families holding lots of wealth in their hands won't let it happen so soon.

We are still in innovator-early adopter stage with BTC. We firstly need to educate other people about and encourage to experience BTC transaction..





 

[conspirosphere.tk]

Just make sure you always buy low and sell high, we absolutely need more such people because the current volatility is so high (and buying low, selling high reduces it!)

I still don't get the sell high part and end hodling all the time, so please use a megaphone here with 48pt red font when it's sell time.

[liexel]

Just make sure you always buy low and sell high, we absolutely need more such people because the current volatility is so high (and buying low, selling high reduces it!)

I still don't get the sell high part and end hodling all the time, so please use a megaphone here with 48pt red font when it's sell time.

yes please.

[SlipperySlope]

Just make sure you always buy low and sell high, we absolutely need more such people because the current volatility is so high (and buying low, selling high reduces it!)

I still don't get the sell high part and end hodling all the time, so please use a megaphone here with 48pt red font when it's sell time.

yes please.

I, for one, will make such a observation, it could be too low though, as was the case for the November 2013 peak. I will be combining a measure of super-exponential growth, namely days to double the price, plus a new measure of distance from the average trend line in a manner similar to rpietila.

I plan to sell via a spread of orders, about 30-40% of my stake, when and if the below graph indicates a value of +0.4, with buy-back orders placed 50% or so lower depending on the exchange's depth charts. If enough traders did this then the bubble would be lessened or have a stronger sawtooth pattern on the way up, as traders easily learn from patterns. With bitcoin, many new traders do not have the experience we do, and so the next bubble may be similar in shape to the preceding two . . .

[MahaRamana]

Just make sure you always buy low and sell high, we absolutely need more such people because the current volatility is so high (and buying low, selling high reduces it!)

I still don't get the sell high part and end hodling all the time, so please use a megaphone here with 48pt red font when it's sell time.

Risto warned to sell when we were at 1200 USD.
It does not necessarily mean to sell everything, and only means to sell if you are inclined to trading (speculation).

[MahaRamana]

Just make sure you always buy low and sell high, we absolutely need more such people because the current volatility is so high (and buying low, selling high reduces it!)

I still don't get the sell high part and end hodling all the time, so please use a megaphone here with 48pt red font when it's sell time.

yes please.

I, for one, will make such a observation, it could be too low though, as was the case for the November 2013 peak. I will be combining a measure of super-exponential growth, namely days to double the price, plus a new measure of distance from the average trend line in a manner similar to rpietila.

I plan to sell via a spread of orders, about 30-40% of my stake, when and if the below graph indicates a value of +0.4, with buy-back orders placed 50% or so lower depending on the exchange's depth charts. If enough traders did this then the bubble would be lessened or have a stronger sawtooth pattern on the way up, as traders easily learn from patterns. With bitcoin, many new traders do not have the experience we do, and so the next bubble may be similar in shape to the preceding two . . .

What would be the price of BTC if we are at +0.4 around mid July ?

[rpietila]

My trendline says 4900.

[lunarboy]

@ slipperyslope

what charting site did you use to create that ?

[phatsphere]

what charting site did you use to create that ?

I'm not him/her, but my guess is google drive spreadsheet + the visualization-plot for timeseries

[SlipperySlope]

@ slipperyslope

what charting site did you use to create that ?

Yes, It is a Google spreadsheet in their cloud. Anyone can read or copy it for their own modifications. Most every evening I get the Bitstamp closing price from Bitcoin Charts and post in the Calculations sheet. The three graphs get automatically updated. Risto inspired all that you see there.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArD8rjI3DD1WdFIzNDFMeEhVSzhwcEVXZDVzdVpGU2c

[lunarboy]

@ slipperyslope

what charting site did you use to create that ?

Yes, It is a Google spreadsheet in their cloud. Anyone can read or copy it for their own modifications. Most every evening I get the Bitstamp closing price from Bitcoin Charts and post in the Calculations sheet. The three graphs get automatically updated. Risto inspired all that you see there.

That would be great. You have a link?

thanks

[SlipperySlope]

@ slipperyslope

what charting site did you use to create that ?

Yes, It is a Google spreadsheet in their cloud. Anyone can read or copy it for their own modifications. Most every evening I get the Bitstamp closing price from Bitcoin Charts and post in the Calculations sheet. The three graphs get automatically updated. Risto inspired all that you see there.

That would be great. You have a link?

thanks

So sorry . . . https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArD8rjI3DD1WdFIzNDFMeEhVSzhwcEVXZDVzdVpGU2c

[BitchicksHusband]

Does Bitcoin Debitcard change the TA?

Yeah, but did you see that site (xapo.com)?  Looks really shady to me with all the "Get Free Satoshis" and constant attempts to hijack your social media.

I signed up for a free wallet account, but I don't think I'll use their card with the site looking like that.

Also, I had massive problems getting to certain portions of the site.

All in all, a no-go for me.

Just FYI (since we were discussing it in this thread):

I told Coinbase about Xapo's debit card and they responded to me:

It's definitely not a bad idea, and we've got some exciting things coming down the pipeline. You're not the first person to request this. I can't go into detail, but stay tuned. Hopefully we'll be able to offer a solution sooner rather than later.

Sounds promising, since Coinbase just seems about 100x more professional than Xapo.

[TERA]

My trendline says we break out around $200 in October.

[Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay]

My trendline says we break out around $200 in October.

My trendline says 4900.

So now with these two so different predictions - yours $200 and $4900 from rpietila we can use rpietila's logarithmic average method to assess which one was better.

[windjc]

My trendline says we break out around $200 in October.

So now with these two so different predictions - yours $200 and $4900 from rpietila we can use rpietila's logarithmic average method to assess which one was better.

That's not TERA's real prediction. He just likes to be the contrarian in every thread. If rpietila had said we were going to be at $200 in October, TERA would have posted a bullish chart. Once you learn the personalities of posters in this forum, you'll see what is really being said.

[Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay]

My trendline says we break out around $200 in October.

So now with these two so different predictions - yours $200 and $4900 from rpietila we can use rpietila's logarithmic average method to assess which one was better.

That's not TERA's real prediction. He just likes to be the contrarian in every thread. If rpietila had said we were going to be at $200 in October, TERA would have posted a bullish chart. Once you learn the personalities of posters in this forum, you'll see what is really being said.

LOL, thx for explanation. But I assume at least rpietila is being serious, will be interesting to revisit it in October'2014.

[wachtwoord]

LOL, thx for explanation. But I assume at least rpietila is being serious, will be interesting to revisit it in October'2014.

Risto is serious his trend line indicates this. Predicting what the actual price will be is something no-one can do accurately.