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Author Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)  (Read 907247 times)
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Trolololo
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April 03, 2014, 09:06:20 PM
 #2241

i think millionnaires are buying bitcoin. they just do so by other channels than public exchanges and/or if they deal with the latest, they probably paid someone to sneak in at a greater profit, which could then explain such volatility: with weak hands actually selling their coins to huge whales/funds/banks/greedymillionaires without noticing it.

A few are buying without a doubt and probably doing so off exchanges. It's just that those few are probably a drop in the ocean..


Megariches (the elite) won't need to buy if they were the first miners (Satoshi Inc.). If they own all those generated and unspent bitcoins, they would be the only who have the annonimity that bitcoin does not offer to not miners.
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April 03, 2014, 09:22:19 PM
 #2242

neither past or future has objective existence. Our perception of such is a mental phenomena


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April 03, 2014, 09:39:38 PM
 #2243

Note I am not saying Bitcoin isn't a performant nor uninteresting investment. If my crude fit of the log-logistic curve to the adoption data is correct, then price should be increasing at roughly 10X every 16 to 20 months from about now for next couple of years, with another bubble to push it temporary higher than that. After that rate of appreciation would noticeably slow again. Note I wrote "if" my theory and fit are correct. We really need someone to do some more empirical analysis of the data.

My goal is to mitigate the excessive "it is totally different this time" towards a more balanced view of Bitcoin's real strengths, weaknesses, and likely scenarios of the future.

I also agree with the comments that most $100+ millionaires are not technologically astute, are busy, have an ingrained inertia in their area of investment, etc.. New technologies have an adoption curve which is determined by the friction of these structural inertias. We can't change that adoption curve unless we fundamentally changed some aspect of Bitcoin that isn't already baked in (factored by speculation). Your evangelism is already factored in (so overdoing with hyperbole only causes the newbies to rush in too aggressively and we get extreme bubbles and crashes, but your hyperbole is already baked in also). As Risto noted, it takes perhaps 12-24 months after someone learns about Bitcoin to become an investor, and not everyone who learns about it becomes an investor.

The binary adoption curve of biotech startups (is an interesting point but) is not applicable to Bitcoin because Bitcoin isn't proceeding with binary outcome, as it is already a proven technology that is being adopted with a well demonstrated adoption curve for us to extrapolate on, while the ecosystem is also morphing with offchain infiltration (as factored already by the due diligence of the speculative investment adoption).

The proposed inverted pyramid may be accurate. Note gold is on the bottom of the Exter's inverted fiat pyramid, but that doesn't mean gold went "to the moon". As Risto pointed out, there are paper futures markets and others ways that gold is diluted in the fiat system. The same will happen to Bitcoin, because humans refuse to be controlled by some limited supply of money. Money is mostly a unit-of-exchange, not a store-of-value. Stores-of-value are incoming earning investments as Buffet has wisely noted many times. Bitcoin is undergoing a speculative investment phase wherein it is not really money and more like shares in an IPO startup. As it transitions to money, then it will become less of a store-of-value. It simply can't be any other way. Millionaires may not be smart enough to figure that out, but they are conditioned to know "it isn't different this time".

I will post again soon about the technical issues such as cpu-only, altcoins, offchain, etc..

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April 03, 2014, 09:41:59 PM
 #2244

Rpietila, i´m still waitin for your paycheck for my last months work?
I would love to continue workin for you.
Please PM me, thanks.

Edit: I will no longer accept BTC as payment, USD only please.

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April 03, 2014, 10:13:04 PM
 #2245

Suggestion. Can we keep the debate about scripture off thread? It adds absolutely nothing here. Everyone is free to have their own belief system. Indeed faith can't be falsified so it is not a very useful discussion to have in an analytical thread.

Btw, when I wrote "God doesn't give talents...", you can just insert "the universe" for "God". I was speaking about a falsifiable natural economic law.

Ill delete mine if you will delete yours.

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April 03, 2014, 10:20:54 PM
 #2246

Rpietila, i´m still waitin for your paycheck for my last months work?
I would love to continue workin for you.
Please PM me, thanks.

Edit: I will no longer accept BTC as payment, USD only please.

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April 03, 2014, 10:51:27 PM
Last edit: April 04, 2014, 05:04:02 AM by AnonyMint
 #2247

Edit: I will no longer accept BTC as payment, USD only please.

I know diehards are going to resist the point of my immediately prior post, but the fact is that for money to become widely accepted by the masses, it must lose its "no debasement" store-of-value qualities. I explained this in great detail else where on this forum (from memory only see my debate with MoodShadow in the Peter Schiff thread in the Economics sub-forum, also my thread "No Money Exists Without The Majority", and all my debates with forum member bitfreak! in his Mini Block Chain threads, and with bitfreak! in my "Failure to..." thread in the Bitcoin Discussion sub-forum). You can find data to back up my arguments in those prior discussions. Let me attempt now another superior summary.

The delusion of the goldbugs (which apparently Satoshi strategically understood) is that debasement is bad for the masses. The truth is the antithesis. Fact is that wealth is power-law distributed[1], thus if money isn't debased the masses become enslaved to the rich.

So society tries to redistribute from the rich to the poor, but this is crony capitalism because of the power vacuum of democracy[2]. Instead of redistributing capital from the (less knowledgeable) rich to the knowledge-intensive entrepreneurs, the collective action actually distributes from the (upper middle-class) entrepreneurs to the poor. The elite capture the collective action and rule it.

So the problem is not debasement. The problem is who controls taxation and debasement, which are the elite. This natural system is basically that the biggest fish eat all the smaller fish.

This is disastrous because it concentrates capital away from those who have the most knowledge capital and towards the top-down fatcats and the unproductive lazy poor.

It is important to understand the reason that the rich are less knowledgeable than the smaller entrepreneur and also this is why smaller things grow faster than larger things. The reason is fitness, which I covered in great detail in the "Information is Alive!" essay on my blog. I elaborated on these concepts in my two essays which CoinCube has linked from his OP in the Economic Devastation thread. I am not saying a rich man isn't smarter, rather I am pointing out a natural law of physics, which is that information can't travel instantly. If the speed-of-light were infinite, nothing would exist and the universe would collapse into a single infinitesimal point in time, because the past would be communicated to the present instantly and thus time would cease to exist. Friction is required for existence. This is explained more analytically in "The Universe" essay on my blog.

You can understand this less abstractly by noting that a manager can't possibly keep track of all the details that his workers are doing. And this is why until you learn to make your own decisions, you can never sustain wealth. The point is that each person knows about opportunities which are local to his/her environment which the fatcat capitalist can't possibly know. Also there is the issue of economies-of-scale, the fatcat can't double his investment in a year because the investments of size don't grow that fast, but the guy who sells mineral water on a hot scalding day, can triple or more his capital outlay.

You see that only productivity sustains wealth. There is no such thing as storing wealth without it losing its value. That couldn't possibly exist in any framework that you could envision. This is a high IQ point and most readers will still not get it after reading the above over and over. If you get this point, pat yourself on the back, it means you are very smart.

The key is that you as a very productive knowledge entrepreneur can grow your wealth faster than the fatcat, so if money is debased by say 5% per year, then you gain relative wealth as compared to the fatcat. That is if the debasement isn't being gamed by that damn power vacuum of democracy crony capitalism. You can also say arithmetically that no debasement is required for you to gain against the fatcat for as long as the power vacuum isn't in control of society, but the problem with that is there is no way to fund the security of a decentralized crypto-currency without debasement. Transaction fees are one of the big Achilles Heels of Bitcoin, because it incentivizes the capture of transactions by those who want to centralize control of mining (this is actually happening now but it is very subtle and hard to prove because 3 pools already control > 50% of mining).

After realizing this, I set out to try to figure out how to design crypto-currency in way that it couldn't be taxed and that would also naturally redistribute the money from the fatcats to the mining entrepreneurs in a competitive framework that rewarded innovation. And I realized that cpu-only would distribute the debasement to the most innovative.

This is because the home miners would mine at a loss and not know it, thus economies-of-scale for marginally lower electrical cost, e.g. in East Washington wouldn't make the datacenter mining very profitable. Rather it would incentivize innovative miners to locate high vertical head and flow stream microhydropower which is almost free energy. The fatcats would hate that, because it doesn't have high economies-of-scale. This is probably why many developed nations outlawed unlicensed moonshine (ethanol) and hemp cultivation. It actually takes individual brawn, search, and effort. As well, such a properly designed cpu-only proof-of-work would not gain economies-of-scale from Tilera CPUs and other ways of applying large capital to mining. Algorithmic check mate on fatcats.

Note one of the very important reasons that mining at a loss is still valuable is because it can be the way to convert fiat to coins without any third party involved, which is very powerful veto on corrupt exchanges and governments, e.g. it nullifies regulation and confiscation. It also makes the personal computer a form of autonomously issued cash, while the governments are trying to eliminate cash so they can track everything digitally.

Note that money isn't all the wealth, e.g. assets such as land are wealth, but as I pointed out above that debasement of all the wealth happens naturally if the power vacuum of democracy isn't allowed to stomp on entrepreneurs with taxation and regulation. Thus entrepreneurs gain relative wealth! And doing a crypto-currency correctly is a key factor in making that a potential reality. Unfortunately Bitcoin as designed can never do that. Bitcoin already lost its potential to change the world in that positive way, for example the mining is already centralized. The adoption pattern and future of Bitcoin is already set in stone.

So I hope I have explained to you why money should not be a store-of-value, and hinted to you how we can improve crypto-currency so that money isn't controlled by the fatcats and the destructive power vacuum of democracy.

Next you may want to hear about specific technological details. Some can be revealed now and others soon.


Note, my blog domain expired which I just renewed but there will be up to a 24 hours delay for the nameserves to propagate again so in the meantime use this link instead.


[1] A. Dragulescu and V. Yakovenko. Exponential and power-law probability distributions of wealth and income in the United Kingdom and the United States.

[2] Eric S. Raymond discussing Mancur Olson's The Logic Of Collective Action in Some Iron Laws of Political Economics.

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April 03, 2014, 11:28:31 PM
 #2248


Everything past is definite, everything future is probabilistic.  


No, there is no difference between the past and the future. Causality is not probabilistic, neither in the past nor in the future.

Einstein:

 "I do not believe in free will. Schopenhauer's words: 'Man can do what he wants, but he cannot will what he wants,[Der Mensch kann wohl tun, was er will, aber er kann nicht wollen, was er will]' accompany me in all situations throughout my life and reconcile me with the actions of others, even if they are rather painful to me. This awareness of the lack of free will keeps me from taking myself and my fellow men too seriously as acting and deciding individuals, and from losing my temper." Schopenhauer's clearer, actual words were: "You can do what you will, but in any given moment of your life you can will only one definite thing and absolutely nothing other than that one thing." [Du kannst tun was du willst: aber du kannst in jedem gegebenen Augenblick deines Lebens nur ein Bestimmtes wollen und schlechterdings nichts anderes als dieses eine.]

I dunno why you brought causality into it. I'm 100% with nagarjan on that one, its his most fundamental thought...

Neither from itself nor from another,
Nor from both,
Nor without a cause,
Does anything whatever, anywhere arise.


This is nirwana, the non-world.

You ask why I brought causality? As soon as you ask 'why?', you want to know the cause of the effect.
And I answer: I brought causality because the world is either deterministic (causal) or it is probabilistic (noncausal).
In my opinion (as well as Diodorus, Spinoza, Hume, Schopenhauer et al.) the world is fully deterministic. The MWI QM interpretation is deterministic as well.




According to MWI of QM (Everett's), bitcoin in the future will have value between $0 and $1 mil or even $1 bil (by 2200), but futures of each of us are also spread between multiple outcomes (worlds). Some of our alternative selves will be associated with the $0 scenario, some with $1mil. However, nobody knows the probability graph of this distribution, hence bitcoin future is an enigma. It could be that there is only 0.1% chance that it succeeds or 99.9% chance. I don't think that this could be established right now. Of course, Mr. Pietila is highly (99.9%?) certain based on the 5.3 year graph, and I sympathize with his position much more than I am with bitcoin at $0 scenario.
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April 04, 2014, 12:06:44 AM
 #2249

According to MWI of QM (Everett's), bitcoin in the future will have value between $0 and $1 mil or even $1 bil (by 2200), but futures of each of us are also spread between multiple outcomes (worlds). Some of our alternative selves will be associated with the $0 scenario, some with $1mil. However, nobody knows the probability graph of this distribution, hence bitcoin future is an enigma. It could be that there is only 0.1% chance that it succeeds or 99.9% chance. I don't think that this could be established right now. Of course, Mr. Pietila is highly (99.9%?) certain based on the 5.3 year graph, and I sympathize with his position much more than I am with bitcoin at $0 scenario.

Perhaps the probability distribution is unknowable without a complete model of human economic behavior.

But its clear that the distribution has been moving away from the zero probability as evidence of adoption accumulates. I suppose that there is a correlation between speculators' perception of the distribution and the current price. Periodic surveys of the general population in accordance with the wisdom of crowds might also give some insight into changes in the shape of the distribution over time.

Another aspect of the distribution is that informed analysts suggest that the distribution is bimodal, in that its supposed to be very likely that either (1) bitcoin price goes to zero, or (2) bitcoin price goes very high. Maybe as we get closer to the halfway point of adoption, expectations of the general population will tip towards (2).
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April 04, 2014, 12:32:53 AM
 #2250


Well I have to disagree.

Even the past is not definite. How do you prove what happened in the past? It is an argument about whose memory is accurate, yet each of us have a different aliasing error in our sampling (because no one samples the entire universe).

[snip]

anyway yeah I considered that, I rejected it (As per above post) I agree a memory of what happened can be subject to probabilistic outcomes, but it doesn't make sense that everything else seems to be made up of stuff between zero and one, but somehow the future and past are actually the same. They need an opposite. Clyde needs his bonnie.

They are opposing in that the past is inductive and the future is co-inductive. Also they are opposing in that there is not one past and one future, thus really they don't exist as aggregated entities (thus can't oppose each other).

Humans have a difficult time accepting diversity, because they can't know it all. Thus we erroneously gravitate towards absolute bullshit such as man-made climate change, as if one climate even exists.

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April 04, 2014, 12:46:33 AM
 #2251

According to MWI of QM (Everett's)...

Not to introduce a flame-fest, but I thought it worth mentioning a personal view which is somewhat innovative:  I consider MWI to be both true and the only interpretation consistent with Christianity, where the latter is understood to include Biblical doctrine.  I'm only throwing that out because the idea has been mooted that Newtonian time is implied by Biblical doctrine, and the holders of that view may not be aware that there is a line of reasoning with contradictory effect.


Give a man a fish and he eats for a day.  Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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April 04, 2014, 01:06:38 AM
 #2252

I don't know how electricity is priced in your place of residency, but in mine, the price of electricity for home users is mostly fixed and can change once or twice a year only. It will be difficult to adjust it if we see another x100 in bitcoin price within a year or two. If the client is a company it is "worst" because a lot of them have long term contracts with fixed prices.

If price doesn't increase consumers break down the doors of the electric company and City Hall. Price will increase damn fast when people don't have electricity. I am here in Davao, Mindanao and we are having rotating brownouts. The people and businesses are ready to strangle the necks of the politicians and so yes the price has risen and the new coal powerplants are being built (200MW to come online next year and more coming).

I agree price may not rise if the damn socialists who want subsidies are in control.

I agree that a higher price (of electricity) could solve the problem in the long term (5+ years). In the short term I except that the most polluting plants will just run at maximum capacity to deliver the required power.

Man-made climate and global environmental change is the most irrational thought a person could have. Start here on the definition of the scientific method.

2. That article assumes the genre and capital cost of the mining equipment is irrelevant. Thus with cpu-only mining, this problem will be much improved (...)

Yes it is (irrelevant). No it won't (be improved). Read the OP.

I assume you are referring to this point:

Hypothesis :
1. Miners are rational actors. Therefore once they have bought a mining rig, they will not stop it unless the cost of running it is higher than the price of the mined bitcoins. However if the price drops or if the difficulty grows too high they should stop mining.

You must have flunked Economics 101 because you forgot opportunity cost.

They can sell the hardware. Factor that in and you see my point was relevant.

Obviously for ASICs you are correct, but general purpose computers you would not be. That is another reason a cpu-only coin is needed.

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April 04, 2014, 01:10:02 AM
 #2253

every second post is Anonymint. and it's not on subject either. Maybe you should create you own thread or follow your own advise Anonymint.

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April 04, 2014, 01:13:08 AM
 #2254

every second post is Anonymint. and it's not on subject either. Maybe you should create you own thread or follow your own advise Anonymint.

+1

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April 04, 2014, 01:19:42 AM
Last edit: April 04, 2014, 01:48:03 AM by AnonyMint
 #2255

every second post is Anonymint. and it's not on subject either. Maybe you should create you own thread or follow your own advise Anonymint.

+1

While I was sleeping there were many posts where I did not post, thus your claim is erroneous. I am responding now, that is why my posts are grouped closely together.

I am responding to posts made by others and I am allowed 10 posts per day.

And FA is relevant to TA because TA is otherwise accurate roughly 50% of the time.  Undecided

I know you want to shut me up because I have pointed out Bitcoin's weaknesses and pointed out that environmentalism is a moral fraud.

Hiding from the facts won't help you. It can only hurt you.

We also have to remember that since quite recently, lots of investment money is going to angel investment rather than bitcoin itself directly. Big investors see the possibility of getting higher returns than bitcoin in launching a successful bitcoin service.

This is because investors just don't get it.

The future is software, not some rent-seeking paid service.  People will increasingly do business directly, with the help of software they control.  Middlemen are increasingly being cut out.  And yet these investors continue to invest in middlemen.

The way to get to this future is not through investment in making bitcoin exactly like the existing financial world.  

Agreed. But Bitcoin is clearly headed to being a part of the existing fiat regime.

A corporation's service cannot compete with an community-produced autonomous service.  You know why?  Because autonomous software doesn't need to profit.  It works for cost.

Nonsense. Miners mine for profit and return security of the network in exchange.

Socialism is always failure.

Autonomous protocols are valuable because they enable diversity and diversity is fitness and fitness is prosperity and resilience.

The way to this future is to buy bitcoin, and then after a few years use some of the proceeds to develop software that serves people, not some corporation.  That makes bitcoin even more desirable, and that's how get paid for your effort.

The fact that this has not happened at all yet is one of my greatest disappointments.  Stop thinking that corporations and VC funding are the answer to everything.  We already have enough bitcoin millionaires to begin this revolution but I don't know of any who are going this route.

That is just socialist bather nonsense.




Allowing myself one more OT comment, simply because I participated in a discussion of this topic earlier in this thread:

This is also the reason that these nutcase theories that bitcoin was invented by government to track people, is just that, a nutcase conspiracy theory.  The government is cracking down on exchanges and arresting people like Charlie Shrem, that is not the behavior of someone who wants it to be widely adopted.  They want to limit it.  They don't want you to have it because it hurts them and benefits you.

[snip]

Yours is a conspiracy theory beyond credibility:  The idea that "the government" is the expression of some malign, monolithic will.  It's a demon of imagination.  The evils of government stem from other, more fundamental, sources.

Astute.

[snip]

I don't personally think that bitcoin was designed by deep state factions, although I allow the distinct possibility.  The scale of the foresight required to craft that strategy beggars belief, but when enough plans are made, some will be surprisingly successful, in all likelihood.  The reason for my skepticism is not dissimilar from your own:  Such a project would almost certainly involve a committee, and that would essentially doom it.

Black budget think tanks are designed not to operate by committee. The elite recognize what works and doesn't work. Please see this:

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/04/02/the-age-of-civil-unrest-part-ii/

Quote
The CIA was using Remote Viewing and it was tested and deployed under rigorous scientific conditions to obtain data about foreign espionage activities, counter terrorism efforts, secret military bases abroad and hidden missiles. It recognized the inherent psychic potential in humans and attempted to harness these special faculties or ‘powers’ for the purposes of intelligence gathering, often of a vital nature. Kind a version of XMen.

The initial testing was done at the Stanford Research Institute (SRI) where extensive investigations were carried out into the human mind’s capacity to transcend all bounds of time and space. SRI’s research was supported by the CIA and other government agencies for over two decades.

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/04/03/fully-invisible-aircraft/

Also see my upthread link to Catherine Austin Fitts' point that government intentionally designs in failure when it is in its best interest but can act very swiftly when that is in its best interest (i.e. the best interests of the elite "Fourth Branch of Government" who capture the government).

My allowance is the converse:  A genius actor could be sponsored by a well-heeled patron (or in the most unlikely case, be capable of successful self-sponsorship) within the deep state to play the Nakamoto role no less (or little less) than could one outside the deep state.  The reason that the allowance is small is that the population from which the deep state selects is smaller than the population which is denied it.

Indeed the $4 trillion unaccounted Black Budget of the USA.



Even if some rich people don't know what bitcoin is, there are plenty of Silicon Valley billionaires that do. What about them? Surely they are not waiting for some investment expert to explain the whys and hows

They are investing in offchain services such as Bitpay and Coinbase, thus converting Bitcoin into a mainstream fiat regime and away from our original ideals.

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April 04, 2014, 01:43:03 AM
 #2256

I know you want to shut me up because I have pointed out Bitcoin's weaknesses and pointed out that environmentalism is a moral fraud.


TBH nobody has time to read all your articles. I havent been. at least Rpietila graces this thread with simplicity.
just saying, cos that is BS. ^^ get over yourself.




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April 04, 2014, 01:45:38 AM
 #2257

I know you want to shut me up because I have pointed out Bitcoin's weaknesses and pointed out that environmentalism is a moral fraud.


TBH nobody has time to read all your articles. I havent been. at least Rpietila graces this thread with simplicity.
just saying, cos that is BS. ^^ get over yourself.





+1 again. You assume people care about what you are saying much more than anyone does. Start your own thread! Risto rules this one...

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April 04, 2014, 01:48:32 AM
Last edit: April 04, 2014, 02:01:08 AM by AnonyMint
 #2258

I know you want to shut me up because I have pointed out Bitcoin's weaknesses and pointed out that environmentalism is a moral fraud.


TBH nobody has time to read all your articles. I havent been. at least Rpietila graces this thread with simplicity.
just saying, cos that is BS. ^^ get over yourself.





+1 again. You assume people care about what you are saying much more than anyone does. Start your own thread! Risto rules this one...

Simplicity is for simpleton surrogates who are easily manipulated by Risto's incorrect (incomplete) summaries.

The summary that says all that matters is how many BTC you have, is what I am attacking right now. That summary is very wrong and it will cost you (and Risto) dearly.

Btw, while he tells you that, he is off buying altcoins and making profits (where do you think his recent cash came from? Im guessing he sold his Auroracoin at the top).

Little shocked that Risto has let AnonyMint take over his thread. Risto use to have more balls and a bigger delete hammer. Now he's just happy letting Mr. TinFoilHat dominate the thread and turn it into his own.

No longer read this thread. Shame.

Because Risto isn't stupid. He realizes that he must adjust to new information that opens his eyes. He realizes he must be able to defend his thesis against all valid logic, else he wouldn't be wealthy.

He deletes noise.

You are trying to turn this into a political contest instead of a factual and analytical contest. I don't think Risto is that dumb.

You are trying to use political pressure to make Risto feel guilty if you don't read his thread. Who cares? Don't let the door hit you in the butt on the way out you whiner. Surely you can skip the posts you don't want to read. Rather you are trying to censor facts that you don't want others to read.


Simplicity is for simpleton surrogates who are easily manipulated by Risto's incorrect summaries.

BS again. It is just good manners and a show of understanding to summarise your arguments concisely. simplicity is always a desirable quality, though some dont have the skill to make simplicity.

Dont take me for a beggar of advise either. I am here to discuss, not to be told.

I did summarize. It is deep stuff. It is not for simpletons. You need an attention span more than a 5 year old.

Then discuss. Present your factual counter-argument.

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April 04, 2014, 01:49:35 AM
 #2259

Little shocked that Risto has let AnonyMint take over his thread. Risto use to have more balls and a bigger delete hammer. Now he's just happy letting Mr. TinFoilHat dominate the thread and turn it into his own.

No longer read this thread. Shame.
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April 04, 2014, 01:53:03 AM
 #2260

Simplicity is for simpleton surrogates who are easily manipulated by Risto's incorrect summaries.

BS again. It is just good manners and a show of understanding to summarise your arguments concisely. simplicity is always a desirable quality, though some dont have the skill to make simplicity.

Dont take me for a beggar of advise either. I am here to discuss, not to be told.

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