rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[rpietila]

You really think that BTC can increase x 10,000 times from here?

Firstly, I don't think it will ever go anywhere even remotely close to that, but even if it does, I'll be out a LONG time before that

Thank you for your opinion. Unless you outnumbered us by 10,000:1, the price would already be 10,000 times higher. So we just wait for the slower ones to "get it", and get wealthy in the process! 

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[TERA]

current price $440 * x10,000 multiple projection = $4,400,000 target price
4,400,000 x 21,000,000 coins = $92,400,000,000,000 ($92.4 trillion) target market cap

Now we are talking 30 edit: 300 times the market cap of google, 10,000 times the market cap of western union, 80 times the amount of USD currently in circulation, and 140% of the current world GDP.

This hefty figure has something to do with the population of the world (7bn) for some reason as if everyone was going to be a bitcoin user. Now let's run that figure:

92,400,000,000,000 / 7,000,000,000 = $13,200 USD per person

repetelia's assertion is that bitcoin will be greater than the world gdp and that the average person in the entire world will hold $13,200 worth of bitcoins. This average spans accross every single person, including those who don't have any money, don't have computers or the internet, live in third world countries, aren't literate, or can't understand technology.

[T.Stuart]

current price $440 * x10,000 multiple projection = $4,400,000 target price
4,400,000 x 21,000,000 coins = $92,400,000,000,000 ($92.4 trillion) target market cap

Now we are talking 30 times the market cap of google, 10,000 times the market cap of western union, 80 times the amount of USD currently in circulation, and 140% of the current world GDP.

This hefty figure has something to do with the population of the world (7bn) for some reason as if everyone was going to be a bitcoin user. Now let's run that figure:

92,400,000,000,000 / 7,000,000,000 = $13,200 USD per person

repetelia's assertion is that bitcoin will be greater than the world gdp and that the average person in the entire world will hold $13,200 worth of bitcoins. This average spans accross every single person, including those who don't have any money, don't have computers or the internet, live in third world countries, aren't literate, or can't understand technology.

What would your estimate be? 

[rpietila]

92,400,000,000,000 / 7,000,000,000 = $13,200 USD per person

repetelia's assertion

...was a comparison to gold going up to $13,000 per ounce at which point everyone would own that much gold, or silver going up to $2,200 per ounce, at which point it would be true re:silver.

You are free to think for yourself, which one of these actually has any chance of happening. 

[TERA]

current price $440 * x10,000 multiple projection = $4,400,000 target price
4,400,000 x 21,000,000 coins = $92,400,000,000,000 ($92.4 trillion) target market cap

Now we are talking 30 times the market cap of google, 10,000 times the market cap of western union, 80 times the amount of USD currently in circulation, and 140% of the current world GDP.

This hefty figure has something to do with the population of the world (7bn) for some reason as if everyone was going to be a bitcoin user. Now let's run that figure:

92,400,000,000,000 / 7,000,000,000 = $13,200 USD per person

repetelia's assertion is that bitcoin will be greater than the world gdp and that the average person in the entire world will hold $13,200 worth of bitcoins. This average spans accross every single person, including those who don't have any money, don't have computers or the internet, live in third world countries, aren't literate, or can't understand technology.

What would your estimate be?  

When I look at bitcoin's long term chart, I see an elliot wave. Wave 1 went to $32. Wave 3 went to $1100. Wave 5 may go to $20,000 (briefly before it crashes into wave a). I don't know what'll happen after that. I don't think the technology is powerful enough to be trusted with or to handle the type of adoption rpetelia has in mind or anything close.

[T.Stuart]

When I look at bitcoin's long term chart, I see an elliot wave. Wave 1 went to $32. Wave 3 went to $1100. Wave 5 may go to $20,000 (briefly before it crashes into wave a). I don't know what'll happen after that. I don't think the technology is powerful enough to be trusted with or to handle the type of adoption rpetelia has in mind or anything close.

I have similar concerns but I do think with enough vested interest the development required is possible.

[TERA]

Here is how an EW analyst might see the future.  (abc would be longer time but I couldn't fit on chart).  I could try to rationalize the peak with something like  ' all governemnts ban btc once it is big enough to pose an actual threat to fiat currency' or 'catastrophic protocol failure or unresolvable scalability issue', 'world financial meltdown / wars' or simply 'competition from something better'.

[frienemy]

Here is how an EW analyst might see the future.  (abc would be longer time but I couldn't fit on chart).  I could try to rationalize the peak with something like  ' all governemnts ban btc once it is big enough to pose an actual threat to fiat currency' or 'catastrophic protocol failure or unresolvable scalability issue', 'world financial meltdown / wars' or simply 'competition from something better'.

Tera, would another hypothetical peak by the end of the year (let's assume 4,000) change your EW-analysis? IMO both could happen, your chart is as possible as yet another peak by the end of the year. I'd be fine with both, because both would bring me some severe gains and even the "bearish" hypothesis of bitcoin peaking at 20,000 would bring bitcoin to the brink of mass adoption. Most capital of the "investment hodlers" would be out by then, affirming the theory that price must go down afterwards, but that will be the point, where mass adoption could make up for that.

[TERA]

Here is how an EW analyst might see the future.  (abc would be longer time but I couldn't fit on chart).  I could try to rationalize the peak with something like  ' all governemnts ban btc once it is big enough to pose an actual threat to fiat currency' or 'catastrophic protocol failure or unresolvable scalability issue', 'world financial meltdown / wars' or simply 'competition from something better'.

Tera, would another hypothetical peak by the end of the year (let's assume 4,000) change your EW-analysis? IMO both could happen, your chart is as possible as yet another peak by the end of the year. I'd be fine with both, because both would bring me some severe gains and even the "bearish" hypothesis of bitcoin peaking at 20,000 would bring bitcoin to the brink of mass adoption. Most capital of the "investment hodlers" would be out by then, affirming the theory that price must go down afterwards, but that will be the point, where mass adoption could make up for that.

4,000 could be a minor peak of a minor wave within the larger wave to 20,000.  for example $266 was a minor peak and $1100 was a major peak.

Edit: I just saw "by the end of the year". I guess if that happened I would have to come up with a new analysis.

[klee]

Here is how an EW analyst might see the future.  (abc would be longer time but I couldn't fit on chart).  I could try to rationalize the peak with something like  ' all governemnts ban btc once it is big enough to pose an actual threat to fiat currency' or 'catastrophic protocol failure or unresolvable scalability issue', 'world financial meltdown / wars' or simply 'competition from something better'.

Tera, would another hypothetical peak by the end of the year (let's assume 4,000) change your EW-analysis? IMO both could happen, your chart is as possible as yet another peak by the end of the year. I'd be fine with both, because both would bring me some severe gains and even the "bearish" hypothesis of bitcoin peaking at 20,000 would bring bitcoin to the brink of mass adoption. Most capital of the "investment hodlers" would be out by then, affirming the theory that price must go down afterwards, but that will be the point, where mass adoption could make up for that.

4,000 could be a minor peak of a minor wave within the larger wave to 20,000.  for example $266 was a minor peak and $1100 was a major peak.

Edit: I just saw "by the end of the year". I guess if that happened I would have to come up with a new analysis.

Do you believe in EW? So I know to ignore your posts or not..

[rpietila]

When I look at bitcoin's long term chart, I see an elliot wave. Wave 1 went to $32. Wave 3 went to $1100. Wave 5 may go to $20,000 (briefly before it crashes into wave a). I don't know what'll happen after that. I don't think the technology is powerful enough to be trusted with or to handle the type of adoption rpetelia has in mind or anything close.

I have similar concerns but I do think with enough vested interest the development required is possible.

The important thing is whether it is a self-sufficient, self-reinforcing loop or not.

The progress so far storngly points to the existence of such, though...

[2017orso]

@Tera

EW analysts do not see the future, they estimate counts of the past.

The contention that btc conversion could reach a relative market cap of $90 trillion or other such figure is based on the notion that such conversion representation becomes irrelevant.

In xx years, will the world and its inhabitants have at offer a quantity and quality of products and services such that the retroactive value of said goods would equate to $90 trillion as valued today?  Yes, that is most likely.

Will bitcoin come to be the sole value representation?  Perhaps, it is not yet clear.

What is clear, is that it indeed is carving a niche at the least.  A niche that is spreading, growing, proliferating, escaping, dodging, attacking, changing...+ing.

Tera - " I don't think the technology is powerful enough to be trusted with or to handle the type of adoption rpetelia has in mind or anything close."

It has the ingenuity and framework, to claim otherwise is absurd, only someone spending all their time assessing it as a speculative asset would make that claim.  Whether it has the power...it seeks to alter the definition of required 'power' to handle and hold wealth.  Guns not included or required.

[Biodom]

@Tera

EW analysts do not see the future, they estimate counts of the past.

EW is the most retarded form of post-factum analysis by far.
I remember reading Prechter a decade ago with his graphs (which looks like TERAs) pointing to Dow 200-400.
Is it possible? I guess, but government would rather cause hyperinflation than allow such deflation that could cause Dow 200-400 (~=1929 levels), unless we are in WWIII and everything is gone.

[farfiman]

.....I don't know what'll happen after that. I don't think the technology is powerful enough to be trusted with or to handle the type of adoption rpetelia has in mind or anything close.....

I thought the same when I used one of the 1st webcam's ever in 1994  (quickcam before they were bought by logitech)  through a 56k modem and a parallel port. I had to wait sometimes a few minutes to see a few grey pixels from across the world.

Yesterday I streamed Game of thrones in HD .

Things change.

[Biodom]

.....I don't know what'll happen after that. I don't think the technology is powerful enough to be trusted with or to handle the type of adoption rpetelia has in mind or anything close.....

I thought the same when I used one of the 1st webcam's ever in 1994  (quickcam before they were bought by logitech)  through a 56k modem and a parallel port. I had to wait sometimes a few minutes to see a few grey pixels from across the world.

Yesterday I streamed Game of thrones in HD .

Things change.

Interesting-the first Internet "video" that I saw was in 1993 on Shoemaker-Levy 9 comet striking Jupiter.
I actually thought then that Internet will be something much-much bigger....

[eat_more_fruit]

yeah, like the time i thought one day it would help revolutionize money itself

[bigdave]

yeah, like the time i thought one day it would help revolutionize money itself

It revolutionized the porn industry.

[windjc]

.....I don't know what'll happen after that. I don't think the technology is powerful enough to be trusted with or to handle the type of adoption rpetelia has in mind or anything close.....

I thought the same when I used one of the 1st webcam's ever in 1994  (quickcam before they were bought by logitech)  through a 56k modem and a parallel port. I had to wait sometimes a few minutes to see a few grey pixels from across the world.

Yesterday I streamed Game of thrones in HD .

Things change.

Interesting-the first Internet "video" that I saw was in 1993 on Shoemaker-Levy 9 comet striking Jupiter.
I actually thought then that Internet will be something much-much bigger....

When people say they thought the internet would be much bigger, I never hear them explain how. That makes no sense to me. Are you talking about technology or the Internet? What did you expect to be able to do with the Internet? Teleport to Mars?

Me - it changed virtually every aspect of my life.

[cbutters]

.....I don't know what'll happen after that. I don't think the technology is powerful enough to be trusted with or to handle the type of adoption rpetelia has in mind or anything close.....

I thought the same when I used one of the 1st webcam's ever in 1994  (quickcam before they were bought by logitech)  through a 56k modem and a parallel port. I had to wait sometimes a few minutes to see a few grey pixels from across the world.

Yesterday I streamed Game of thrones in HD .

Things change.

haha i used to watch realplayer encoded clips of southpark episodes that were small enough to fit on a floppy drive... (READ 1.44MB) you could barely understand what was happening through the compression artifacts, but it was cool.

I also had one of the first MP3 players on the market, back when everyone thought CD players were all the rage. It had a 16MB capacity, I could fit 3-4 songs on it and it was the size of a deck of playing cards. I compressed my music to 64k to be able to fit more songs.

Now... millions of songs accessible in real time out of thin air in studio quality, and devices as small as ipod shuffles.

bitcoin will improve accordingly as well.

[F-bernanke]

Me - it changed virtually every aspect of my life.

This, I can't imagine how stupid and brainwashed I would be without the internet.

Through internet I found out how the world works.