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24hralttrade
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November 21, 2014, 07:46:08 PM |
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2014-11-21 14:44:54 0.00000013 Buy 1704923.15365433 1602824.56749854 0.20836719
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CryptoLTD
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November 21, 2014, 08:02:26 PM |
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Buying own coins to move markets: 0.25% Fee (BTC)0.00055380 FAIL!
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ycagel
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November 21, 2014, 08:03:58 PM |
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Did someone need to do a research paper to figure this out? Seems common sense to me.... YC New Research Links Bitcoin Price Spikes to Media Hype
Jaroslaw Adamowski | Published on November 19, 2014 at 15:55 GMT
A new research paper aims to understand bitcoin’s price fluctuations and usage patterns through empirical analysis. Notably, the work finds a positive link between media attention and the value of the cryptocurrency.
“The rise of bitcoin has generated interest from the media and scientific community. However our knowledge of this innovation is still insufficient, particularly when examined from perspectives of finance and economics,” the study says.
To address this gap, the researchers conducted two complementary empirical investigations. The first aimed to clarify the factors affecting the rate of return on investment in bitcoin, while the second examined the sales of merchants who have decided to accept bitcoin as a form of payment.
The work, titled Price Fluctuations and the Use of Bitcoin: An Empirical Inquiry, is the result of a collaboration by Michal Polasik and Anna Piotrowska, two researchers from Poland’s Nicolaus Copernicus University's finance department; Tomasz Piotr Wisniewski and Geoffrey Lightfoot from the University of Leicester School of Management; and Radoslaw Kotkowski, an employee of the Polish Bank Association whose research was conducted independently and is associated with the Warsaw School of Economics.
Lightfoot told CoinDesk that the article is to be submitted to a peer-reviewed journal and that currently the authors are collecting comments from colleagues before the final submission.
According to the authors, their work “enriches and verifies earlier theoretical considerations with data, and is one of the first empirical attempts to model the bitcoin economy”. Chicken-and-egg scenario
The team's primary objective was to discover what determines bitcoin's value, using data pulled from CoinDesk's Bitcoin Price Index.
While constructing the list of potential drivers, the researchers considered standard macroeconomic controls, global stock market fluctuations, and the number of transactions conducted with bitcoin, as well as measures designed to gauge its popularity. These included the number of English-language articles listing the word ‘bitcoin’, as well as the number of Google searches carried out for the same term.
The authors worked with the assumption that popularity drives price changes, but it could be that the opposite is true, they say, particularly when there is a spike in the price. After allowing for this possibility in the analysis, though, the researchers concluded their initial assumption was correct.
They state:
“Our results indicate that popularity of this cryptocurrency is one of the main factors driving the price. We observed that returns tend to be elevated whenever newspaper articles mention bitcoin more frequently and whenever the number of people searching for it on Google increases.”
According to the data, a 1% increase in the number of articles mentioning bitcoin raises returns by around 30 'basis points' (each being 100th of 1%). A similar rise in Google searches increases returns by about 50 basis points.
To further attempted to assess whether the price performance of bitcoin depends on its liquidity, the researchers collected data on the change in total number of transactions on the blockchain.
"By focusing on price formation, we discover that bitcoin returns are driven primarily by its popularity and the transactional needs of its users," say the authors.
At the same time, they add, bitcoin is "not well integrated with global stock markets and the macroeconomy presumably because it is currently a relative newcomer". Thus, the link with globals stocks was not found to be significant. Sales breakdown
The second major part of the study involved the survey of legal, English-speaking, bitcoin-accepting businesses. In total, 108 companies from 35 countries responded with information.
The paper reads:
"Analysis of traders that operate outside the law is likely to be highly unreliable, both because they are difficult to identify and, even if found, will be unlikely to voluntarily participate in such a survey."
The data indicated that the value of transactions carried out using bitcoin was on average 31% of sales, with just over half of the surveyed companies registering only a small portion of sales (up to 10%) in the digital currency. However, just over a quarter of merchants claimed that over 81% of their sales were conducted with bitcoin.
"This group presumably includes organisations that have built their business model around the use of bitcoin," the paper adds.
The authors also found that concluded that the cryptocurrency portion of trade was higher for startups (less than three years old) than for presumably more established merchants who maintain brick-and-mortar outlets.
Additionally, customers’ knowledge of bitcoin (as estimated by the merchant) was also a factor: the more buyers knew about the cryptocurrency, the higher the proportion of bitcoin sales. Obstacles ahead of bitcoin
The authors acknowledge that, according to some researchers, bitcoin has not yet reached critical mass and appears viable primarily as an alternative currency for online purchases. However, the research also takes account of its rapid proliferation.
“The network of entities that accept bitcoin is expanding rapidly and there is a burgeoning technical infrastructure that can ameliorate the problem of exchange rate volatility,” the report says.
With this in mind, the paper points to a number of obstacles that stand in bitcoin’s path to widespread acceptance.
“Perhaps the biggest is the legal status of the cryptocurrency, with some countries maintaining an outright ban while others heavily restricting its use. Alongside this, there is considerable confusion as legislators attempt to determine its status for tax purposes – even within the EU countries there is no common approach.”
This said, the authors’ view on bitcoin’s potential role in the global economy is perhaps best summarised in the study’s concluding paragraph:
“Bitcoin is a fascinating innovation, which through its technical possibilities has the potential to engender significant changes to our understanding of the financial system and of the essence of money ... Time will tell as to whether the benefits will outweigh the shortcomings, and whether adoption will become widespread, or remain limited to narrow niches and the shadow economy.”
More analysis to come
When asked about how the paper compares to another recent study that linked bitcoin price movements to search and media interest, Lightfoot said the two works have certain common features.
“It’s a good paper,” Lightfoot told CoinDesk. “I think both of our papers agree on the importance of publicity as a driver for bitcoin price and returns, although we draw out different implications, since we also call upon our survey of merchants accepting bitcoin.”
What makes the latest research original, he said, is the survey of merchants.
"We’ll reflect further on it and draw some further parallels in the next version of our paper," Lightfoot added. Source: https://www.coindesk.com/reasons-behind-bitcoins-price-media-hype/
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24hralttrade
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November 21, 2014, 08:38:36 PM |
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Buying own coins to move markets: 0.25% Fee (BTC)0.00055380 FAIL! If thats the price to kill a troll, All day And it looks like i got some supporters.
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CryptoLTD
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November 21, 2014, 08:46:13 PM |
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Hardly a troll.. It's just in need of a lil help..Jared seems to be thinking in the same manor...in the spirit of the season... 13!
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CryptoLTD
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November 21, 2014, 09:04:00 PM |
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I'll let other people post pix of Yahts & Sports cars
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benjamoyne
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November 21, 2014, 09:08:14 PM |
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I'll let other people post pix of Yahts & Sports cars I could go in right now and buy it up past 50, but theres no point until the announcement we have been waiting for is posted and the fork happens. Once those two things happen, there won't be any need for anybody to pump the coin, as there will be plenty of buy momentum in the market. Just take this opportunity to by all the cheap coins you can. I know I'm not the only one doing it. Digibyte and Nautilus coin are the sleepers I'm buying at the moment.
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24hralttrade
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November 21, 2014, 09:18:31 PM |
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Exactly, There are allot of eyes watching Digibyte.
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CryptoLTD
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November 21, 2014, 09:22:45 PM |
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IT'S HAPPENING! Path to RICHES 15 Dollars at a time!
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CryptoLTD
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November 22, 2014, 03:53:03 AM |
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Guiz GUIZ! Theres so many people watching this right now.. all eyes are on DGB! Keep up the great pumps! ZOMG MOON! STARS! VENUS! FAST CARS! YACHTS!!!
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Arsenay
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November 22, 2014, 04:13:39 AM |
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*Change production from 6,746 DigiBytes per block at time of fork to 2,435 DigiBytes per block
6,746/2,435 = 2.77 probably the price must be at least 28 Satoshi ?
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24hralttrade
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November 22, 2014, 10:12:59 AM |
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Guiz GUIZ! Theres so many people watching this right now.. all eyes are on DGB! Keep up the great pumps! ZOMG MOON! STARS! VENUS! FAST CARS! YACHTS!!! I guess you followed every step and still you're trying. Need to give you some credits for that.
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bogglor
Sr. Member
Offline
Activity: 266
Merit: 250
DigiByte? Yes!
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November 22, 2014, 10:16:39 AM |
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This proposed change to the block reward seems like a reaction to people's concerns about the current value of the coin, not the long term value.
Remember a few months ago when the algo change happened? The block reward was about 7647. Now it's about 6917. That's about a 10% drop in block reward over three months. Now there's a proposed change to make the block reward 2435 and then only drop 11-12% over the course of a whole year!! That's a huge slowdown to the reduction of the block reward and may result in a slight increase in value in the short term, not the long term.
The block reward (in it's current state) is dropping very fast now, but unfortunately in the altcoin world people want to see results "now now now" and aren't willing to wait the years necessary to reach a desired result. If left alone, the block reward would hit 2435 in two years. And would continue to decrease faster than the new proposed change. This means that with the new change, in two years DGB will be adding coins to circulation FASTER than if they left the block reward as it is now.
If left alone, the value of DGB would probably continue to drop. It's a hard choice. Add more coins now (current state), or add more coins later (proposed change)?
The Digibyte team says that they are in this for the long haul. If they are, then why change for a fix that might cause only short term value stability? Is the Digibyte team looking at DGB as a speculative commodity, or as a currency? Value of the coin is not important. Acceptance into the marketplace is.
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My current miner setup: Linux - Ubuntu 12.04, Two 1.3Mh/s Scrypt ASICs, Two Radeon HD 7850 GPU mining different algos (usually qubit or skein). Click here for my DGB Address QR code. DGB Address: D6ZLjbSWu2mse3EqtoSn93nFrJ85wPKBF5 I have the DGB Gaming Wallet on my Galaxy S6
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Moxymore
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November 22, 2014, 12:07:57 PM |
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This proposed change to the block reward seems like a reaction to people's concerns about the current value of the coin, not the long term value.
Remember a few months ago when the algo change happened? The block reward was about 7647. Now it's about 6917. That's about a 10% drop in block reward over three months. Now there's a proposed change to make the block reward 2435 and then only drop 11-12% over the course of a whole year!! That's a huge slowdown to the reduction of the block reward and may result in a slight increase in value in the short term, not the long term.
The block reward (in it's current state) is dropping very fast now, but unfortunately in the altcoin world people want to see results "now now now" and aren't willing to wait the years necessary to reach a desired result. If left alone, the block reward would hit 2435 in two years. And would continue to decrease faster than the new proposed change. This means that with the new change, in two years DGB will be adding coins to circulation FASTER than if they left the block reward as it is now.
If left alone, the value of DGB would probably continue to drop. It's a hard choice. Add more coins now (current state), or add more coins later (proposed change)?
The Digibyte team says that they are in this for the long haul. If they are, then why change for a fix that might cause only short term value stability? Is the Digibyte team looking at DGB as a speculative commodity, or as a currency? Value of the coin is not important. Acceptance into the marketplace is.
Hello bogglor, Digibyte team has explained, few posts ago, why they intend to decrease the block reward. But because i'm following DGB since its birth, i'll try to explain you with a bit more details. DGB was kinda unminable for few weeks/a month before the multi algo change. We (the comunity) needed a lot of hashrate to reach block 145000, in order to switch to the multi algo. Because of this lost time, they decreased the block generation from 1 minute to 30 second in order to compensate this previous issue and to put more coins in circulation. Now, I want to put your attention on one fact : since multi-ago is here (approx 3 months from my memory), we have generated more blocks in these 3 months than in the first 9 months of Digibyte life (this means 3x faster than before!). That's why I actually agree to reduce the block reward, not only in order to give DGB a short term value, but in order to give DGB the key for a future success too. My opinion is as simple as this : actually (and if things doesn't change), coins generated are too much high reguarding the (actual ofc) demand. Decreasing the block reward will match better the actual market needs, and it will give to DGB more attention from the market... and not only for a short period imo, because a lot of people knows that DGB has potential. The total number of DGB will be untouched : 21 bilions as mentionned since January 2014. But because coins are generated too fast actually, it will be a great solution to reduce the amount generated a day for the short time as well as the long haul. Acceptance in the altcoin market/merchants can be done especially when improvement are done. And that's what DGB's team is doing.
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♥ Digibyte ♥ "THE" Digital currency of the future ♥
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CryptoLTD
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November 22, 2014, 12:48:41 PM |
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Yes, correct. Coin production is too high. The team has mentioned a fix for this. However, with some handy dandy math, in the past three months, theres now 1 Billion, 620 million coins made. At current prices of 13 satoshi each, thats only 210.6 BTC worth of coins, or @ BTC's current prices $ 76,210 USD. Lets take a look at buy support...
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Moxymore
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November 22, 2014, 12:56:16 PM |
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Yes, correct. Coin production is too high. The team has mentioned a fix for this. However, with some handy dandy math, in the past three months, theres now 1 Billion, 620 million coins made. At current prices of 13 satoshi each, thats only 210.6 BTC worth of coins, or @ BTC's current prices $ 76,210 USD. Lets take a look at buy support... Because kids and trolls like you wanna profits now and only now... For our tranquility, can you just please leave this thread CryptoLTD. You are so fucking toxic...
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♥ Digibyte ♥ "THE" Digital currency of the future ♥
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esotericizm
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November 22, 2014, 01:00:02 PM |
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How about contributing something other than negativity in every single post? It's ironic that you claim to be an investor yet every post you seem to make is damaging that investment.
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Moxymore
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November 22, 2014, 01:10:03 PM |
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How about contributing something other than negativity in every single post? It's ironic that you claim to be an investor yet every post you seem to make is damaging that investment.
I understand that you needed to explain yourself about him, like I have done few minutes ago. But it's worth it to don't feed more this troll Moreover, I have seen several threads in this forum which are self moderated. Maybe Digibyte team is able to talk with bitcointalk.org staff to be able to ban some people of this thread (even if trolls come back again and again with fake accounts). This is my own opinion, but I always rage when I read this kind of posts which are not constrictiv', toxic, and which is worth it for nobody (except maybe for the troll itself which feels alive... yeah, alive! A troll not raging isn't a troll, a troll not complaining for everything can't be fed enough to live).
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♥ Digibyte ♥ "THE" Digital currency of the future ♥
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Arsenay
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November 22, 2014, 01:14:33 PM |
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How about contributing something other than negativity in every single post? It's ironic that you claim to be an investor yet every post you seem to make is damaging that investment.
I understand that you needed to explain yourself about him, like I have done few minutes ago. But it's worth it to don't feed more this troll Moreover, I have seen several threads in this forum which are self moderated. Maybe Digibyte team is able to talk with bitcointalk.org staff to be able to ban some people of this thread (even if trolls come back again and again with fake accounts). This is my own opinion, but I always rage when I read this kind of posts which are not constrictiv', toxic, and which is worth it for nobody (except maybe for the troll itself which feels alive... yeah, alive! A troll not raging isn't a troll, a troll not complaining for everything can't be fed enough to live). every decent coins there should be a fool troll
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