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uranian
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January 21, 2014, 02:32:23 PM |
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that's 3692 futures contracts, given that they're 100 troy ounces each. the feb14 contract traded 112,715 contracts on friday. i guess a lot of that is people rolling over from jan14 to feb14, but still it gives an indication of how close we potentially are to the death of the crimex. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a8XsZwtmYik |
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There are several different types of Bitcoin clients. The most secure are full nodes like Bitcoin Core, which will follow the rules of the network no matter what miners do. Even if every miner decided to create 1000 bitcoins per block, full nodes would stick to the rules and reject those blocks.
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Mikcik (OP)
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January 21, 2014, 03:24:33 PM
Last edit: January 21, 2014, 03:48:34 PM by Mikcik |
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BTW about gold repatriation to germany, another interesting fact is that Venezuella asked for its gold back in 2011, and according to this interview: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p0rGaWcRiNoIt took FED only 4 months (!), to give back 160 tonnes of gold back to Venezuela... Venezzula is here: http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:VEN_orthographic.svgVenezulla is not really near New York, germany is still more far aways from new york, but still, between venezuella and new york there is some distance, still they managed to deliver 160 tonnes in 4 months. Germany wants double that ammount, so it should take around 8 months. Also the insurance, transport, security couldnt be such a big issue if FED manage to make 160 tonnes in 4 months... Also he, according to this, already have experience with shipping huge ammounts of gold back. So sorry, but the argument about the transportation beeing a big issue fails. FED managed to return 160 tonnes in 4 months. There are NO problems with the shipping itself to germany, it totally possible and logistically "makeable". Still: Venezuela gold 160 tonnes repatriation took 4 months... Germany gold repatriation 5 tonnes in a year... :-) Im going to buy some gold now :-). EDIT: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/venezuela-completes-repatriation-160-tons-goldOh ok... some sources say it took them around 2 months only...? I dont know abotu that, but lets say the 4 months apply (and not the 2) But the bigger issue is that the got their gold from LONDON/europe also, not just the USA (i dont know how much they got back from USA and how much from europe), but still they managed to get gold from europe, which is over atlantic ocean in about 4 months... So sorry guys, but saying that FED just has issues with the complicated logistics of getting germany beck their gold is simply a nonsense... im sorry, venezeula proved it. The gold is not their (in FED vaults) wow on that  ! |
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NUFCrichard
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January 21, 2014, 04:55:00 PM |
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Its not 5 tonnes a year, it was 5 tonnes in the first year. Yes they made up some rubbish about melting capacity, but they obviously have some gold available to them, I just doubt it is anywhere near what they say they have.
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TTBit
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January 21, 2014, 05:31:02 PM |
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Mikcik, I have a question on gold manipulation, hope it is OK to ask in your thread, as this is where the eyes seem to be.
We all saw what happened when MtGox stopped paying out USD, or at least severely rationed USD. The result was the price of MtGox bitcoins (paper bitcoins if you will) rose substantially. If you do business with actual bitcoins, the price is now currently ~17.5% less.
As related to gold, the expectation seems to be that if the Comex runs dry (or stops paying out in real gold), the price of physical will rally to substantial levels above paper gold. But the MtGox episode explains the opposite - that it will be paper gold (comex futures) that explodes higher as it tries to lure physical gold into its coffers.
Conclusion: Physical gold will therefore trade at a significant *discount* to comex futures if there is a run at the comex. Yes?
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good judgment comes from experience, and experience comes from bad judgment
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BreathOfZen
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January 21, 2014, 05:38:47 PM |
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Mikcik, I have a question on gold manipulation, hope it is OK to ask in your thread, as this is where the eyes seem to be.
We all saw what happened when MtGox stopped paying out USD, or at least severely rationed USD. The result was the price of MtGox bitcoins (paper bitcoins if you will) rose substantially. If you do business with actual bitcoins, the price is now currently ~17.5% less.
As related to gold, the expectation seems to be that if the Comex runs dry (or stops paying out in real gold), the price of physical will rally to substantial levels above paper gold. But the MtGox episode explains the opposite - that it will be paper gold (comex futures) that explodes higher as it tries to lure physical gold into its coffers.
Conclusion: Physical gold will therefore trade at a significant *discount* to comex futures if there is a run at the comex. Yes?
Nope, Gox Dollars trade at a discount to Physical Dollars because there is significant difficulty in converting Gox Dollars to Real Dollars. Similarly, if there were difficulty in converting Comex Gold into Physical Gold, then the price of Physical Gold would shoot up in relation to the Comex price. |
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aminorex
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Sine secretum non libertas
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January 21, 2014, 05:46:36 PM |
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Nope, Gox Dollars trade at a discount to Physical Dollars because there is significant difficulty in converting Gox Dollars to Real Dollars.
Hmmm. USD are up. Perhaps there is a significant difficulty in converting US Dollars into Real Dollars. |
Give a man a fish and he eats for a day. Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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BreathOfZen
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January 21, 2014, 06:14:46 PM |
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Nope, Gox Dollars trade at a discount to Physical Dollars because there is significant difficulty in converting Gox Dollars to Real Dollars.
Hmmm. USD are up. Perhaps there is a significant difficulty in converting US Dollars into Real Dollars. Hrm. I'm not sure quite what you mean, I was just describing the basic point that when two ostensibly identical items (in this case dollars) are traded in two different locations, and they cannot easily be moved from one location to the other (eg moving dollars from MtGox to my bank account), it will result in a price differential where the item in the less desirable location (MtGox) is worth less then the item in the more desirable location (my bank). Similarly, if gold on the Comex cannot be converted into Physical gold easily, and a demand ever arises to convert the gold from the one to the other directly in any quantity, it will cause gold in the less valued location (Comex) to sell at a discount to gold in the more valued location (a physical coin in my safety deposit box). |
Aoeui Artifacts
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aminorex
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January 21, 2014, 06:37:47 PM |
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nevermind. i'm having one of those ultra-stupid days which occur every other week or so. on the road too long i guess.
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Give a man a fish and he eats for a day. Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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TTBit
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January 21, 2014, 06:58:24 PM |
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Mikcik, I have a question on gold manipulation, hope it is OK to ask in your thread, as this is where the eyes seem to be.
We all saw what happened when MtGox stopped paying out USD, or at least severely rationed USD. The result was the price of MtGox bitcoins (paper bitcoins if you will) rose substantially. If you do business with actual bitcoins, the price is now currently ~17.5% less.
As related to gold, the expectation seems to be that if the Comex runs dry (or stops paying out in real gold), the price of physical will rally to substantial levels above paper gold. But the MtGox episode explains the opposite - that it will be paper gold (comex futures) that explodes higher as it tries to lure physical gold into its coffers.
Conclusion: Physical gold will therefore trade at a significant *discount* to comex futures if there is a run at the comex. Yes?
Nope, Gox Dollars trade at a discount to Physical Dollars because there is significant difficulty in converting Gox Dollars to Real Dollars. Similarly, if there were difficulty in converting Comex Gold into Physical Gold, then the price of Physical Gold would shoot up in relation to the Comex price. Ok, makes sense |
good judgment comes from experience, and experience comes from bad judgment
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Mikcik (OP)
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January 21, 2014, 09:33:56 PM |
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And does anybody know the features of the gold futures traded at comex? I mean concretelly their payement period, if i buy "paper" futures gold at comex, what date is the delivery? In a year, in two years, in 5 years..? Whats the avarage delivery date on gold futures at comex?
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uranian
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January 21, 2014, 10:18:15 PM |
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Gold suppression is part of Fed's 'financial repression,' Rickards says. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X7lGBFJCn-wAs general counsel for the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM), he was the principal negotiator in the 1998 bailout of LTCM by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Rickards worked on Wall Street for 35 years. In 2001, he began using his financial expertise to aid the U.S. national security community and the U.S. Department of Defense. Rickards was sceptical to the manipulation for a long time...I recall the GATA guys getting quite excited when he accepted the obvious. He's one of the more mainstream voices talking about gold manipulation, anyway. |
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Mikcik (OP)
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January 23, 2014, 02:14:34 PM |
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So today china supposedly announced her gold reserves and it says that they stayed the same...
But people were telling the public (mainly gold sellers) that china is buying tons of gold...
So who lies? the gold sellers trying to boost the price of gold or china, trying to accumulate more and more gold for a cheaper price (which it would not be able if it told that its byuing gold like crazy, because in such scenario the price would go up).
what do you think?
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aminorex
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January 23, 2014, 04:49:59 PM |
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So today china supposedly announced her gold reserves and it says that they stayed the same...
But people were telling the public (mainly gold sellers) that china is buying tons of gold...
So who lies? the gold sellers trying to boost the price of gold or china, trying to accumulate more and more gold for a cheaper price (which it would not be able if it told that its byuing gold like crazy, because in such scenario the price would go up).
what do you think?
China continues to import massive amounts of gold. They are not held by the PBOC, but by multitudes of Chinese savers. |
Give a man a fish and he eats for a day. Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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Mikcik (OP)
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January 23, 2014, 09:56:02 PM |
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how do you know that...? Do you want to tell me that all the gold importedto china goes to private sector? (private bullison sellers/buyers or manufactures of electronics etc.)? None of it goes to the reserve of chinesse central bank? People (gold sellers) told everyone that yes, it goes there.
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knightcoin
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Stand on the shoulders of giants
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January 23, 2014, 10:54:03 PM |
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Gold I am just thinking about who actually can measure (weigh out) all those gold ton around the world.. who got the authorization to get inside the safe and say ... yep, I been inside Fort Knox it's real they really got it ... Its all on accountancy books. Also reminds me the many ecological disasters caused by gold rush. In Amazon rain florets ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Serra_Pelada ) miners never really got rich they only get a gold called "in natura" witch has low value. Gold only became financial asset after receive certificate of purity by a certification authority. After that, you can choose keep your gold and pay the price and take responsibility for storage or pay somebody else to do it for you. well, thinking about it I have reason to believe that Bitcoin ( and it's public ledger) is much better and rational financial asset than gold.... |
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pening
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January 23, 2014, 10:55:08 PM |
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So today china supposedly announced her gold reserves and it says that they stayed the same...
But people were telling the public (mainly gold sellers) that china is buying tons of gold...
So who lies? ... I'd trust China before gold sellers. The latter have obvious interest to ramp the price, China does not. In fact, it may be counter productive for them, if they were perceive to have a harder, gold backed currency, it would make their currency stronger. This may hurt exports their economy is built upon. |
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Mikcik (OP)
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January 24, 2014, 01:54:50 AM |
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So today china supposedly announced her gold reserves and it says that they stayed the same...
But people were telling the public (mainly gold sellers) that china is buying tons of gold...
So who lies? ... I'd trust China before gold sellers. The latter have obvious interest to ramp the price, China does not. In fact, it may be counter productive for them, if they were perceive to have a harder, gold backed currency, it would make their currency stronger. This may hurt exports their economy is built upon. Yeah thats a good critical thinking comment, didnt really saw and answer to that, usually they say that china is building its middle class and soon it wont need to export... Also dont forget that a LOT of stuff is made now in china, dont even know if world could essentially afford to make all the stuff themselves these days...? (clothes, electronics), isnt china the "workshop" of the world now...? how do you see that? |
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aminorex
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Sine secretum non libertas
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January 25, 2014, 08:22:27 PM |
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how do you know that...? Do you want to tell me that all the gold importedto china goes to private sector? (private bullison sellers/buyers or manufactures of electronics etc.)? None of it goes to the reserve of chinesse central bank? People (gold sellers) told everyone that yes, it goes there.
The official figures are the best available evidence for the actual figures, at least for the time-being. Imports/exports are reported. PBOC reserve report was quite recent. Since import/export imbalance is so high, and reserves are not rising, therefore the remainder is going into the private sector. |
Give a man a fish and he eats for a day. Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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Mikcik (OP)
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January 30, 2014, 03:20:04 AM |
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BTW im thinking about buying more PM, i have little gold, now im thinking about buying silver, but im not sure if i should or use the money to buy additional gold (but that would leave me with no gold at all... :-( ). What do you think? If gold goes higher (for example due to the problem with germany) will silver follow?
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