Price of gold manipulation

[Mikcik]

Please read and answer only if you know something about this topic, stupid posts not regarding topic or posts from people who dont know about the issue are worthless.

So do you belive (the ones who know something about the topic) that the gold price is manipulated? I want a discussion here because i dont know any other similiar forum where i can raise the issue. How do you know it? Because people on the internet told you so? And that the facts interpreted in one way point to so?

I "know it all", the FED germany repatriation problem, the faked tungsten bars few years ago, the China buying of gold, the LIBOR riging, the supposed FOREX rigging the Comex supposed manipulation of the gold price etc. The price of gold in future ranging from $5000 to $50 000 USD...

Do you think its possible? Will the price of the gold explode in the future?

Whats true, whats possible, and whats maybe false...:

1) FED germany gold repatriation problems. This is 99,9999% true, two options: a) FED doesnt have to gold b) FED has the gold but doesnt want it give back and expect some BIG event in the near future, following which it will publicly tell that it will keep the gold of other nations. This problem is real. On the other hand FED can somehow handle this fraud, return it all to germany, the fraud even obvious to some, will never be really exposed and will continue for several years again...
2) The gold bars in FED vaults (if any) are tungsten fakes. I belive this also, its a reasonable thing to do if the previous one is true.
3) China is not reporting the correct number of their gold holdings which are higher. Yeah i belive that also, why wouldnt they, but i think the real ammount might be exaggerated.
4) The goal of manipulation is to support the role of $ as the reserve currency (and not to tempt states to buy gold reserve instead of dollars). This seems also possible...

What doesnt seem to add up:
1) The gold manipulation is promoted somehow mainly by the people connected to the gold bussines (selling gold etc.), i dont belive the mainsream media a lot, but why should i really belive the sellers of gold either? They have their own conferences and it is possible they themslves created this "conspiracy theory" to keep the price of gold up?
2) The gold manipulation should have been ongoing for DECADES (!!) Do you think it is really possible for it to be going this long...? (on the other hang look at Bernie Maddof...)?
3) Jim Rogers (you should know him) says that he doesnt belive in the gold price manipulation, and he seems very wise, experienced, wealthy and honest... so he should know... Also i think Marc Faber doesnt belive in it either (as far as i know)?
4) The predicted future gold price seems to much dreamy and it gives me a vibe of a "get rich quick scheme", which doesnt ever work... On the other hand, bitcoin (something new and really not physically existent) has appreciate like 84 times just in the year 2013, so i gues gold could get to the $10 000, $15 000, or even $50 000... (thats "just" 38,4 times) But still i have a hard time beliving it...
5) People say all the time that china might emerge with a gold back currency and is buying into gold so much for this reason, but is it true? Isnt china just buying gold for diversification away from dollar? Isnt china also buying real estate around the world, companies, other currencies... Isnt gold buying just a part of this goal to diversificate the state wealth? And didnt "gold bugs" just use this to falsely imply the reason behind buying gold. Why would china really wanted to back their currency by gold?
6) Paper claims on existing gold in COMEX are much higher (like 69 people are "paperly" owning the same ammount of 1 oz of gold. Is it possible? People say that comex vaults doesnt have all the physical gold that is beeing sold at the exchange. But doesnt COMEX sell future gold contracts, that means the claims on future mined gold, so its quite clear  that they cannot have the gold yet physically allocated, this is normal futures trading as far as i know, nothing special... Or doesnt the comex sell gold futures?
7) If it all pops, does it really mean that the price of gold HAS to go so high? Why just not triple or double?

So what do you think? I would love to belive that the GOLD is really manipulated, and i would love the see its price to sky-rocket, but there are serious problems with this claims...
Whats your claim on this?

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[chriswilmer]

Sorry for the worthless post, I just wanted to add that I am also interested in these questions. Thanks for bringing it up.

[Mikcik]

Sorry for the worthless post, I just wanted to add that I am also interested in these questions. Thanks for bringing it up.

Well ok, if you are interested than whats your take on this? What do you think about it? Whats your oppinions?

BTW i also thought about next thing that doesnt add up... If the price of gold is manipulated, than what about all the mines that are producing it... i belive its in their best interest to make the truth come out, so why hasnt it? Or are the price suppresion people "stronger" than the gold mines?

[troy112]

i don't about all these, but yes i think manipulation is going on..

1. Yes only seller tells about manipulation but they are the smaller ones. The bigger ones don't that. They simply trade. And why do you think these seller would want to get higher prices, they are making profit from the margin in buy and sell price, not from the prices going high. That would be around the same at low prices, i think margin will be lower at high prices. So, its not in there favor.
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2. Yes its been up for decades, but only now people have started noticing it. So, now is the turning point.

3. See there will be people against it and there will be people in favor. This happens all the time, i am in favor.
4. In my opinion there won't be a sudden jump in its value in normal market condition. Like you wake up next day and it just reached the moon. The sudden jump will accompany with some kind of economic/market collapse. And fear in the people will drive the value exponentially.

[troy112]

The thing with the bitcoin was that it was owned by very small no. of people and those people believed in it. Thus they were able to make other believe and that rocketed the price. In future when it will be owned by masses such a exponential growth will not be possible. Really i dont believe in saying it will go to 10000 this year... 

[RenegadeMind]

Related...

I've watched the silver prices much more closely than gold. There is manipulation going on there without a doubt. If you've been watching silver, you know this. The regular spikes in London and NY are far too many to be coincidence.

But, I've not compiled that information. You have only to look at the charts over time to see it. It's pretty obvious.

[aminorex]

There is manipulation going on there without a doubt. If you've been watching silver, you know this.

Agreed.  Now, how do we game the manipulation? 

[Mikcik]

i don't about all these, but yes i think manipulation is going on..

1. Yes only seller tells about manipulation but they are the smaller ones. The bigger ones don't that. They simply trade. And why do you think these seller would want to get higher prices, they are making profit from the margin in buy and sell price, not from the prices going high. That would be around the same at low prices, i think margin will be lower at high prices. So, its not in there favor.
a
2. Yes its been up for decades, but only now people have started noticing it. So, now is the turning point.

3. See there will be people against it and there will be people in favor. This happens all the time, i am in favor.
4. In my opinion there won't be a sudden jump in its value in normal market condition. Like you wake up next day and it just reached the moon. The sudden jump will accompany with some kind of economic/market collapse. And fear in the people will drive the value exponentially.

Well the 1st point is just totall nonsense :-(... I cant belive you can write such a thing... (because when someone can be so wrong in one thing, what about the other things...)...
Who are please the "bigger ones"? Thne sellers would like to make an atmosphere of belive in manipulation so people would be buying more gold today, more gold sold, more profit made... Margin will be in absolute numbers the same if not bigger, the higher the price the more they can tak in profit, the higher the price, the more demand there is, the more demand, the more theyll sell, the more they sell the more they make...

The only good point is the reminder that companies make profit on margin (spread).

[Mikcik]

Yeah i heard about silver manipulation aswell... But dont know too much about this... What is the predicted future price of silver? On gold its somehwere between 5 000-15000 Oz. Heard even 50 000 per Oz :-). What about silver price?

[Mikcik]

Also what do you think about the argument that comex doesnt have all the physical gold it sells? As far as i know comex sells (only?) gold futures? So if you buy gold future you cannot have it physical yet... theres no conspiracy in this as far as i understand it...? Or do they pretend to sell also physical gold (that they have, but in reality they dont)? As far as i know comex sells futures?

[Ducky1]

I'm very skeptical. People talk about manipulation, but I haven't seen anyone show concrete evidence of manipulation, or even describe how the manipulation is done.

So, then read this: http://goo.gl/eDpC6H

(orginal source is here: www.paulcraigroberts.org)

[Ducky1]

There is manipulation going on there without a doubt. If you've been watching silver, you know this.

Agreed.  Now, how do we game the manipulation? 

Should be easy enough, get the word out.

[Ducky1]

I'm very skeptical. People talk about manipulation, but I haven't seen anyone show concrete evidence of manipulation, or even describe how the manipulation is done.

So, then read this: http://goo.gl/eDpC6H
(orginal source is here: www.paulcraigroberts.org)

That article is all speculation. It contains no evidence.

There is plenty of points to suspicious trades. besides, he seems to be quite knowledgeable (argument from authority). And it's all very reasonable unless you are totally paralyzed by "normality bias".

From wikipedia

Paul Craig Roberts (born April 3, 1939) is an American economist and a columnist for Creators Syndicate. He served as an Assistant Secretary of the Treasury in the Reagan Administration and was noted as a co-founder of Reaganomics.[1] He is a former editor and columnist for the Wall Street Journal, Business Week, and Scripps Howard News Service. He has testified before congressional committees on 30 occasions on issues of economic policy.

[lnternet]

Thanks for the thread, I am wondering the same. Just a while ago I stumbled across some well presented material of why the gold price must inevitably explode, only to find out the presenter runs an online gold shop.. So I don't know what to believe.

So, then read this: http://goo.gl/eDpC6H

Thanks for sharing. It contains this piece:

The Royal Bank of India reports that the ratio of paper claims to gold exceed the amount of gold available for delivery by 93:1.

which I haven't been able to verify. Anyone?

[BreathOfZen]

Given that the central banks of the world pretty openly collaborated to manipulate the price of Gold back in the 60's, one can only assume that if it suited them they would be manipulating the price now.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_Gold_Pool

[uranian]

There is manipulation going on there without a doubt. If you've been watching silver, you know this.

Agreed.  Now, how do we game the manipulation? 

if you want to be part of the problem, you sell contracts when the comex opens, and buy when it closes. you massively outperform gold by performing this action mindlessly on a daily basis. it is the best proof of manipulation that there is. check out www.gata.org for good info on the hows and whys of gold manipulation. it is slowly becoming mainstream, bloomberg had a piece a few days on ago about the blatantly obvious price manipulation that has been happening on the comex for decades now.

[uranian]

I'm very skeptical. People talk about manipulation, but I haven't seen anyone show concrete evidence of manipulation, or even describe how the manipulation is done.

here you go:

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/sites/default/files/users/u2/gold-overnight-vsdaily-price_0.jpg

[uranian]

The Royal Bank of India reports that the ratio of paper claims to gold exceed the amount of gold available for delivery by 93:1.

which I haven't been able to verify. Anyone?

from the horse's mouth:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0NAL0C6BO-4

(i used to run a scrap gold business, hence my interest in this thread : )

The CFTC, when it did its most recent report on silver, used the term that we use, "the physical market." We use that term as did the CFTC in that report to talk about the OTC market -- in other words, forwards, OTC options, physical metal, and everything else. People say, and you heard it today, there is not that much physical metal out there, and there isn't. But in the "physical market," as the market uses that term, there is much more metal than that. There is a hundred times what there is. If I look at the large short positions on the Comex, my question is: Where are the other shorts being hedged? Because the short position that I believe the bullion banks use to hedge their physicals is larger than their short position on the Comex, and the answer is that they hedge it in the OTC market in London.

Christian confirms what many analysts and GATA have been alleging -- that there is not much REAL physical metal -- but testifies that there is actually 100 times the REAL physical metal being sold based on the much more "loose" definition of what "physical" means to the bullion banks.

http://www.gata.org/node/8478

[Mikcik]

So and what do you think about the physical to paper gold ratio about 69...?

Isnt it due to the futures trading...? Because if comex sells gold futures its clear and understandable that it simply wont have all the physical gold in its vaults...??

[Mikcik]

There is no such thing as a "manipulation".

When you want to buy an asset, there is only one real price, and that is the money you are going to give to get the stuff delivered to you.
When you want to sell an asset, there is only one real price, and that is the money someone is going to give you to get your stuff.

It applies to gold, oil, bitcoins, real estate, stocks, vegetables, ...

Those price are not "manipulated" because they cannot be. Money is spent, and asset is delivered.

In between there is a very large number of "paper assets" that are traded, and that is some very specific cases reflect the price of the real asset. Contracts, promises, option, you name them. They are not real assets. There were never supposed to be. Sometimes the price of those assets will stick to the price of the real asset (especially when the asset can be electronically delivered, like stocks or bitcoins). Most of the time they will not.

So what is the price of gold ?
Don't look at the comex market. They do not sell gold. They sell promises.
Look at the places where you can buy real gold and put it in your own vault immediatly.
And also look at the places where you can sell the gold you have. Not the place where you can sell someone else's promise to deliver gold. Only sell physical gold.
That is the real price.

Is it manipulated ? No. You don't have to sell if the price is not right to you. You don't have to buy either.

I will not answer the implicit question "is it the right time to buy or sell gold now ?" because I don't know.

Yet I can answer the question "is it a good idea to buy or sell paper gold now ?" because the answer is obviously "no" except if you have a real good reason to do so (because for instance you manage a gold mine, an electronic industry that needs gold, and so on)

Well im sorry but someone of us is incredibly stupid. You didnt give ANY arguments to support your statement that gold is not manipulated. I at least told something meanigful why YES it MIGHT or NO it is NOT, you didnt give any... I really dont understand posts likes yours, since they only bring confusion to the people... Ill take it by points:

1)

There is no such thing as a "manipulation".

When you want to buy an asset, there is only one real price, and that is the money you are going to give to get the stuff delivered to you.
When you want to sell an asset, there is only one real price, and that is the money someone is going to give you to get your stuff.

Well ehm... the price is made by several banks each day (twice a day), i think its called the "London fix", as far as i know, its only paper agrements, but this is the place the majority of physical bullion sellers take their price from , so no... paper gold market DOES set the price even for the physical... OF COURSE (!). You didnt know that :-(? You dont understand the mechanism...? I was in a coin shop, and the were monitors on the london fix price, according to the price they were selling the gold... You really dont undestand this? How old are you for god sake!?

Those price are not "manipulated" because they cannot be. Money is spent, and asset is delivered.

Oh... Oh my... :-(... Well first of all, the price is set in the london fix "deal", which is somehow connected to the COMEX market, where "paper gold" is traded, and even when you can make a call for physical delivery of gold, the majority doesnt and they simply "hold" and trade the gold in the form of "paper certificates" (or something), so no, the gold isnt physically delivered the majority of the time. I dont know the correct price manipulation technic but you surelly didnt prove that it isnt there even with this statement, its like fractional reserve banking, the have X ounzes of physical gold, but they MIGHT trade XXX ounzes of gold (x times higher then what they physically have or even might be able to deliver in future (in future contracts)). And since the majority doesnt need/want to hold physical, the hold only paper claims... Well i can give you Thousand of paper claims that i own BILIONS of $ and that i will give you billions of dollars, even though i dont have them :-), but hey, you got your paper claim...I really dont know what you wanted to say with this sentence. You dont understand the mechanism? So let mi put it this way your wrote the prices CANNOT be manipulated, well then OMG they might be quite EASILY manipulated... The questions is, are they? (and no, they really can be, the possibiliti exists, you lied).

Is it manipulated ? No. You don't have to sell if the price is not right to you. You don't have to buy either.

OMG!!! Do you really mean that...Have you been drinking, or dont i understand that, or am i that brilliant to be the only one th realize that :-D! You are kidding me! So the fact that you can willingly sell and or buy, or not, its the indicator that theres no manipulation :-D!?!!?!? Omg im so much disapointed by the bitcoin community :-(. This simply isnt a sign, you will have to belive me. If its manipulated and you dont know about it, then yeah, surrelly, you think the current price is the REAL price made by the free market discovery "method", so why not sell or buy if you wante and belive the price is "correct"...

What exactly did you wanted to say with this thread? Because you didnt say anything, even when you thought you brought up something, you didnt, and you just made confusion.
So for example the situation with german gold... you see this all as a "hoax" and thus it wont have any impact on the future price of gold...?