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zeetubes
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January 30, 2014, 10:41:10 AM |
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I have around 30% gold, 50% silver, 15% BTC and the rest in cash. Of that, probably the highest risk is BTC but it's the most fun to watch. I've been following gold for around ten years but in the last three years I don't actively watch the markets because it's too scary, especially in bitcoin. I haven't read the whole thread but gold is around the cost of pulling it out of the ground, so that should suggest the price is near a bottom. It may also be a time to look at miners that have proven reserves.
Is gold manipulated? I don't know of any market that isn't manipulated. More importantly how long can it go on for? I think 2014 or 2015 is when things will start to unfold but who knows? All it will take is for China to announce how much gold they actually own now and that could start the ball rolling. (interesting that they can have hundreds of tons delivered in one year, but the bundesbank can only get their hands on 30 or so). Probably even bitcoin is becoming manipulated either by governments trying to use scare tactics or regulations, or by bigger players who use pump and dump techniques.
I like silver because it's used in so many industries but at the same time, it is becoming very scarce and it's very expensive to get out of the ground. Also there's the perception that it's so much cheaper than gold so people will spend $25 to buy a one oz coin, rather than buy $25 worth of gold.
Just some random thoughts.
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SlowMotion
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January 30, 2014, 12:32:54 PM |
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All is a funny fake
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Mikcik (OP)
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January 30, 2014, 03:41:14 PM |
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I have around 30% gold, 50% silver, 15% BTC and the rest in cash. Of that, probably the highest risk is BTC but it's the most fun to watch. I've been following gold for around ten years but in the last three years I don't actively watch the markets because it's too scary, especially in bitcoin. I haven't read the whole thread but gold is around the cost of pulling it out of the ground, so that should suggest the price is near a bottom. It may also be a time to look at miners that have proven reserves.
Is gold manipulated? I don't know of any market that isn't manipulated. More importantly how long can it go on for? I think 2014 or 2015 is when things will start to unfold but who knows? All it will take is for China to announce how much gold they actually own now and that could start the ball rolling. (interesting that they can have hundreds of tons delivered in one year, but the bundesbank can only get their hands on 30 or so). Probably even bitcoin is becoming manipulated either by governments trying to use scare tactics or regulations, or by bigger players who use pump and dump techniques.
I like silver because it's used in so many industries but at the same time, it is becoming very scarce and it's very expensive to get out of the ground. Also there's the perception that it's so much cheaper than gold so people will spend $25 to buy a one oz coin, rather than buy $25 worth of gold.
Just some random thoughts.
Well ok, if you have been watching the price of gold, or the gold market itself for nearly 10 years, well that gives you credibility and knowledge, so i want to ask you few questions :-). - have you dont your own "research" into the issue? - I know silver is widely used in industry but are there near substitues? That means if it gets too expensive, are there other metals or means to cheaply replace it? |
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zeetubes
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January 30, 2014, 04:14:44 PM |
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I read around 50 pages a day about economics. I started reading because 10 years ago I was working in different countries and I wanted to understand currencies. What if I'm living in america but being paid in HKD and my bank account is in malaysia etc. And i really didn't have a clue what made them go up and down. I was reading for two years before I suddenly made the connection that currencies are basically meaningless. Once I'd made that connection I took all of my money out of real estate and stocks because I knew they were doomed. That sounds simple but it took me so many months to understand what inflation really meant. The stock markets are nothing but the Fed spending around $5B of printed USD every week and pumping it into the S&P and DOW. The DOW should currently be around 2000 based on any meaningful evaluation.
Silver is (from what I've read) the second most used and diversified commodity aside from petroleum (coffee is up there too). It is used in solar and anti bacterial and almost all electronics and can't be replaced. Gold could replace it in many areas but gold is too expensive so not practical for industrial use. Whatever else you hold in your portfolio you should hold some silver. But I wouldn't get too excited about short term gains until the Fed lets the too big to bail banks go broke. I can only tell you what I hold. I am not a financial advisor.
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rhyso
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January 30, 2014, 04:54:47 PM |
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I am no expert by any stretch of the imagination. But I do feel the gold (and silver) prices are manipulated.
I have not read too much on the subject but I do have gold and silver in my portfolio, as well as BTC and megacoin.
I look t the price on Kitco daily, and it seems that every time it spikes it does not seem to get the chance to gain much traction and the following days the price decreases back to below the level it spikes from.
This is just my theory but I believe the Fed or one on it's main constituents is using the massive amounts of (free) revenue to buy and sell gold and silver and use that portfolio purposefully to manipulate the price down so the dollar looks more stable.
This theory was in my mind correct immediately after the Cyprus debacle. By rights the gold price should have gone up then as people moved to more secure ways to store their money. BTC certainly went up. Gold went down, and down and down...
I think this effort cannot go on forever and banks are buying gold at bargain basement prices because at some stage they cannot continue to do this and the price will correct to well over $1400.
Silver seems to have a near identical graph to gold.
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accrual of monetary value
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Black_Sheep_in_the_herd
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January 30, 2014, 08:30:10 PM |
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Please read and answer only if you know something about this topic, stupid posts not regarding topic or posts from people who dont know about the issue are worthless.
So do you belive (the ones who know something about the topic) that the gold price is manipulated? I want a discussion here because i dont know any other similiar forum where i can raise the issue. How do you know it? Because people on the internet told you so? And that the facts interpreted in one way point to so?
I "know it all", the FED germany repatriation problem, the faked tungsten bars few years ago, the China buying of gold, the LIBOR riging, the supposed FOREX rigging the Comex supposed manipulation of the gold price etc. The price of gold in future ranging from $5000 to $50 000 USD...
Do you think its possible? Will the price of the gold explode in the future?
Whats true, whats possible, and whats maybe false...:
1) FED germany gold repatriation problems. This is 99,9999% true, two options: a) FED doesnt have to gold b) FED has the gold but doesnt want it give back and expect some BIG event in the near future, following which it will publicly tell that it will keep the gold of other nations. This problem is real. On the other hand FED can somehow handle this fraud, return it all to germany, the fraud even obvious to some, will never be really exposed and will continue for several years again...
2) The gold bars in FED vaults (if any) are tungsten fakes. I belive this also, its a reasonable thing to do if the previous one is true.
3) China is not reporting the correct number of their gold holdings which are higher. Yeah i belive that also, why wouldnt they, but i think the real ammount might be exaggerated.
4) The goal of manipulation is to support the role of $ as the reserve currency (and not to tempt states to buy gold reserve instead of dollars). This seems also possible...
What doesnt seem to add up:
1) The gold manipulation is promoted somehow mainly by the people connected to the gold bussines (selling gold etc.), i dont belive the mainsream media a lot, but why should i really belive the sellers of gold either? They have their own conferences and it is possible they themslves created this "conspiracy theory" to keep the price of gold up?
2) The gold manipulation should have been ongoing for DECADES (!!) Do you think it is really possible for it to be going this long...? (on the other hang look at Bernie Maddof...)?
3) Jim Rogers (you should know him) says that he doesnt belive in the gold price manipulation, and he seems very wise, experienced, wealthy and honest... so he should know... Also i think Marc Faber doesnt belive in it either (as far as i know)?
4) The predicted future gold price seems to much dreamy and it gives me a vibe of a "get rich quick scheme", which doesnt ever work... On the other hand, bitcoin (something new and really not physically existent) has appreciate like 84 times just in the year 2013, so i gues gold could get to the $10 000, $15 000, or even $50 000... (thats "just" 38,4 times) But still i have a hard time beliving it...
5) People say all the time that china might emerge with a gold back currency and is buying into gold so much for this reason, but is it true? Isnt china just buying gold for diversification away from dollar? Isnt china also buying real estate around the world, companies, other currencies... Isnt gold buying just a part of this goal to diversificate the state wealth? And didnt "gold bugs" just use this to falsely imply the reason behind buying gold. Why would china really wanted to back their currency by gold?
6) Paper claims on existing gold in COMEX are much higher (like 69 people are "paperly" owning the same ammount of 1 oz of gold. Is it possible? People say that comex vaults doesnt have all the physical gold that is beeing sold at the exchange. But doesnt COMEX sell future gold contracts, that means the claims on future mined gold, so its quite clear that they cannot have the gold yet physically allocated, this is normal futures trading as far as i know, nothing special... Or doesnt the comex sell gold futures?
7) If it all pops, does it really mean that the price of gold HAS to go so high? Why just not triple or double?
So what do you think? I would love to belive that the GOLD is really manipulated, and i would love the see its price to sky-rocket, but there are serious problems with this claims...
Whats your claim on this?
Hey Guys!!!!! Quite an interesting discussion, Actually It's not a secret that Gold or Any commodity for that matter is manipulative. Gold fluctuations can happen due to various reasons. Well One of the main reasons, Demand! (Simplest principle) Then Economy [Well If I am to give you an example when the economic climate was at it's knees I think it was in 2010-2011 American senate had to pass a bill to increase the countries debt ceiling in order for them to meet Bond payments for investors with out damaging the country's fitch rating. However because of narrow political advantages the senate was really late to pass the bill which created doubt in the investor community which ultimately devalued the dollar. Of cause as a chain reaction it was the next move for investors to get rid of the dollar and turn to good old Gold. Which Created the Demand.... Now this is where the final piece of the puzzle comes in MANIPULATION. Well the demand creates a buzz in the wall street and every one wants a piece of the action, and Big players such as HSBC, GOLDMAN SACHES, ETC... pretty much run the show from here. Since they know the hype is not forever, when THEY have made enough Commission(Profits) They dismiss/sell a whole bunch of gold back to cash em and when there are millions of gold bars on drop despite the previous demand it creates a panic in the market so every one start selling. so rather than the demand soon it will be a less demanding commodity which makes the price to fall to attract investors. Right now we are at this stage. and I expect the gold prices to fall further in the coming months. But don't make no mistakes It will never be record low. Because Bigger players still have some stored bullion for rainy days. It would only be record low if China, India, America, Russia and Mexico decides to flood the market with their stored gold. So until That we are still safe to invest in gold as long as we don't take stupid risks and hope for a another recession. In my opinion the gold prices will stable for a 1year - 2 years before make any drastic fluctuation. Let me what your guys idea on this.... Thanks |
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TeeBone
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February 02, 2014, 01:11:16 AM |
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BTW im thinking about buying more PM, i have little gold, now im thinking about buying silver, but im not sure if i should or use the money to buy additional gold (but that would leave me with no gold at all... :-( ). What do you think? If gold goes higher (for example due to the problem with germany) will silver follow?
Not exactly 1:1, but they (metals) usually spike up together. Silver is much more volatile then gold, though. Thinner market, bigger swings. My wild-card sleeper that i've been buying up lately is RHODIUM. look it up. Crazy, but it was actually at 10 thousand an ounce 6 yrs ago, now at rockbottom 1k. I wouldnt go gaga on it, but i like to diversify and it could go to da moon again lol |
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zeetubes
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February 02, 2014, 01:12:23 AM |
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"My wild-card sleeper choice that i've been buying up lately is RHODIUM. look it up. Crazy, but it was actually at 10 thousand an ounce 6 yrs ago, now at rockbottom 1k. I wouldnt go gaga on it, but i like to diversify and it could go to da moon again lol
"
I read a tip about how Rhodium would go ballistic back then but there was no easy way to invest in it at the time (I think now there's an ETF). I don't know much about Rhodium but I think it's an unstable metal, so not easy to store physical. I never did find out why it went ballistic six years ago.
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Mikcik (OP)
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February 02, 2014, 02:33:14 AM |
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BTW im thinking about buying more PM, i have little gold, now im thinking about buying silver, but im not sure if i should or use the money to buy additional gold (but that would leave me with no gold at all... :-( ). What do you think? If gold goes higher (for example due to the problem with germany) will silver follow?
Not exactly 1:1, but they (metals) usually spike up together. Silver is much more volatile then gold, though. Thinner market, bigger swings. My wild-card sleeper that i've been buying up lately is RHODIUM. look it up. Crazy, but it was actually at 10 thousand an ounce 6 yrs ago, now at rockbottom 1k. I wouldnt go gaga on it, but i like to diversify and it could go to da moon again lol Yeah i was looking also in rhodium just for interest... the graph shows promising... http://www.kitco.com/scripts/hist_charts/yearly_graphs.cgido you know why the price fell so much? what was the reason? |
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TeeBone
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February 02, 2014, 02:52:55 AM |
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BTW im thinking about buying more PM, i have little gold, now im thinking about buying silver, but im not sure if i should or use the money to buy additional gold (but that would leave me with no gold at all... :-( ). What do you think? If gold goes higher (for example due to the problem with germany) will silver follow?
Not exactly 1:1, but they (metals) usually spike up together. Silver is much more volatile then gold, though. Thinner market, bigger swings. My wild-card sleeper that i've been buying up lately is RHODIUM. look it up. Crazy, but it was actually at 10 thousand an ounce 6 yrs ago, now at rockbottom 1k. I wouldnt go gaga on it, but i like to diversify and it could go to da moon again lol Yeah i was looking also in rhodium just for interest... the graph shows promising... http://www.kitco.com/scripts/hist_charts/yearly_graphs.cgido you know why the price fell so much? what was the reason? That was in '08 during the stock market collapse. All the metals crashed as well, gold took a 40% hit. Rhodium got clobbered (obviously) because it's market is EXTREMELY thin. IMO, it's a good metal to throw a few lazy dollars in. High-risk, high-reward...and it's pretty much at it's bottom right now. |
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aminorex
Legendary
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Sine secretum non libertas
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February 02, 2014, 05:14:08 AM |
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rhodium is used primarily for plating, alloying, and as a catalyst. like other platinum group metals it is very stable. i doubt another price squeeze like 2009 will occur because that spike put it on everyones radar. now it sees reserve demand, which will buffer the price.
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Give a man a fish and he eats for a day. Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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pening
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February 02, 2014, 11:51:08 AM |
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Consider what the reasons for a 90% fall in price would be (applies to about anything). 1. Massive loss of demand, products using the material are no longer in demand, or the material has been replaced by another. 2. Large supply increase, say a new efficient process to manufacture/extract, or a new source is found (in this case one that would be order of magnitude or two larger than previous known deposits. 3. Considerable speculation in the price, the market got spooked, dumped an ran. Now there might be something relating to 1 or 2, but giving the timing with the rest of the market, it doesn't seem likely. Note the lows 10 years ago and 6 years before that... pretty clear what happens here. |
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Mikcik (OP)
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February 02, 2014, 11:11:43 PM |
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Consider what the reasons for a 90% fall in price would be (applies to about anything). 1. Massive loss of demand, products using the material are no longer in demand, or the material has been replaced by another. 2. Large supply increase, say a new efficient process to manufacture/extract, or a new source is found (in this case one that would be order of magnitude or two larger than previous known deposits. 3. Considerable speculation in the price, the market got spooked, dumped an ran. Now there might be something relating to 1 or 2, but giving the timing with the rest of the market, it doesn't seem likely. Note the lows 10 years ago and 6 years before that... pretty clear what happens here. No i dont get it :-), im not a native english speaker so i might not understand you that well, could you please directly write why do you think that fall happened? |
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Mikcik (OP)
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February 02, 2014, 11:25:16 PM |
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Also i notice another thing, germany should repatriate also around 350 tonnes of gold from Paris, France, does the 8 years period of gold repatriation of gold from NY FED also applies to to the French gold? I belive so... They managed to get back i dont know, 32 tonnes from Paris (they owned them 374 tonnes), so yeah... i think the 8 year+ return of french gold applies also for the French... But why is french gold never considered as an issue, i read just about the stupid 5 tonnes per year, but nothing written about the fact that also the French arent able to retrieve the gold back to Germany in a reasonable time (and no, 8 years is not a reasonoable time)...
Paris is "right across" the corner from germany, not like over the ocean new york, still it will take even for the french 8 years to give the gold back to germany...
Why arent we hearing more about the french part of the story?
And it makes me think that they (NY FED and France) REALLY dont have the gold anymore... :-D Really didnt realize this before but when even France has problem with returning the germany gold reserves, then i belive there really is a problem... What do you think?
Venezuela gold its 140 tonnes of gold back in 4-6 MONTHS (!!!) (mainly from europe (london, paris?) but also from USA), so no, sorry but 8 years are way off... They fucking really dont have the gold :-D! Im believing it more and more... but its a question if it will really "blow of" and the truth will show itself, or if they manage to scrap the gold back in tiny portions over time and the public wont notice this fraud. What do you think?
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NanoAkron
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February 03, 2014, 01:16:40 AM |
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If I loan you $1,000 and you can't pay it back, you're in trouble.
If I loan you $1,000,000 and you can't pay it back, I'm in trouble.
There's also the question of why Germany wants their gold back in the first place, and they're not being honest about that either.
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tabnloz
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February 03, 2014, 02:31:36 AM |
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If I loan you $1,000 and you can't pay it back, you're in trouble.
If I loan you $1,000,000 and you can't pay it back, I'm in trouble.
There's also the question of why Germany wants their back in the first place, and they're not being honest about that either.
It's theirs. It doesn't matter why they want it back, but I'd guess they are worried about a) how much gold is actually there and, b) that if their economy goes to crap they want something considered to hold real value, or c) they believe gold will be included in an SDR basket sometime in the near future |
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NanoAkron
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February 03, 2014, 10:45:15 AM |
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SDR?
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zeetubes
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February 03, 2014, 02:10:56 PM |
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SDR means sovereign drawing rights or some other b.s. acronym. I think it's basically a basket of currencies acting together as the world's reserve instead of a single currency. I don't see how that solves any real problems. They could also use gold but one oz would have to be revalued up to around $70k.
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NanoAkron
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February 03, 2014, 04:09:51 PM |
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SDR means sovereign drawing rights or some other b.s. acronym. I think it's basically a basket of currencies acting together as the world's reserve instead of a single currency. I don't see how that solves any real problems. They could also use gold but one oz would have to be revalued up to around $70k.
Wow. I guess that shows how artificial our current inflation levels are. |
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