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Author Topic: [Havelock] Bitcoin Difficulty Derivative (BDD)  (Read 290008 times)
twentyseventy (OP)
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March 02, 2014, 05:14:55 PM
 #181

Period 4, Day 2 Report - March 2, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 462.03235520

Total Units: 3554

NAV/U: BTC 0.13000347

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March 03, 2014, 05:05:14 PM
 #182

Period 4, Day 3 Report - March 3, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 464.43958770

Total Units: 3590

NAV/U: BTC 0.12937035
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March 04, 2014, 05:17:35 PM
 #183

Period 4, Day 4 Report - March 4, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 465.63577581

Total Units: 3617

NAV/U: BTC 0.12873535


At the moment, Difficulty is on track to increase about 1%, though there could still be a significant change in network hashrate before the next DI.

I think this is a good time to remind everyone (or make aware to those that haven't done the math) that the Difficulty needs to increase around 6.5% in order for there to be a SELL dividend issued. I say 'around' since it will be somewhat less if there are significant sales of EXCH, which increase the NAV/U.

This is because the Period is started with 200 Days of Dividends and .5% is paid out each day in dividends to MINE (1 Day / 200 Days = .5%). So, at the end of a 10-Day Period, there are only 190 days of dividends remaining at that ending Period's Difficulty.

If there is a Difficulty increase of greater than about 6.5%, then the necessary Reserve of 200 day of dividends has decreased enough to make this a non-issue. If the Difficulty has increased at less than that approximate rate (or stayed the same, or decreased), then the required Reserve is higher than the actual Reserve and there will be no SELL dividend.

TL;DR It's possible that there could be a Difficulty Increase, but no dividends will be issued to SELL for that Period due to the paid Dividends outstripping the decrease brought on by the small Difficulty Increase. But you really should be reading the whole explanation.
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March 04, 2014, 07:05:31 PM
 #184

Thanks for that information! I didnt know at all.
One of the reason why I joined this BDD was to understand how it works more - and I have to say its fascinating how everything balances itself so well.
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March 04, 2014, 09:51:15 PM
 #185

32% measured right now, still nearly ten days to go. Thanks for the early statement Wink
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March 05, 2014, 05:13:13 PM
 #186

Period 4, Day 5 Report - March 5, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 466.81417119

Total Units: 3644

NAV/U: BTC 0.12810487


One unit was purchased at 1158AM, so it was bought back after Noon for its dividend amount that it missed.
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March 06, 2014, 05:07:41 PM
 #187

Period 4, Day 6 Report - March 6, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 458.61174752

Total Units: 3597

NAV/U: BTC 0.12749840


48 Shares were sent to me for buy-back and bought back for 0.12426292 each.

On-Demand NAV/U was 0.1281061055 less (6 Days * .5%) = 0.12426292

Also, as a double-check to ensure that I've got the right amount of MINE/SELL issued, I keep the numbers of pairs of MINE/SELL issued plus the EXCH Ask at 10,000 total.

I've updated the number of EXCH units in the ask to take into account the buy-back. This should't really matter to anyone, I just wanted to give the reason for removing and replacing the EXCH Ask amount in case someone was wondering.
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March 07, 2014, 04:20:10 PM
 #188


48 Shares were sent to me for buy-back and bought back for 0.12426292 each.

On-Demand NAV/U was 0.1281061055 less (6 Days * .5%) = 0.12426292

Also, as a double-check to ensure that I've got the right amount of MINE/SELL issued, I keep the numbers of pairs of MINE/SELL issued plus the EXCH Ask at 10,000 total.

I've updated the number of EXCH units in the ask to take into account the buy-back. This should't really matter to anyone, I just wanted to give the reason for removing and replacing the EXCH Ask amount in case someone was wondering.

Something was bugging me yesterday regarding this buy-back amount. I've detected an error, or an issue if you'll call it, with the Buy-Back calculation. The contract says the following:

Quote
The issuer will buy back equal pairs of B.MINE and B.SELL at the NAV/U less 0.5% times the number of B.MINE dividend payouts that have been paid out during that Period.

The intended purpose here is to offer a buy-back price for BDD Pairs that is lower than the price of B.EXCH less the dividends paid (so that no one can profit off of simply holding the Pair, receiving the dividends, and then selling the Pair back at the EXCH price).

A Buy-Back price is necessary to establish a minimum price for MINE/SELL combined - it offers arbitrageurs a way to profit if the market price of both has dropped too low.

The issue with the contract's wording is that it was written at the inception of the fund, before I had agreed to issue a daily NAV/U; the NAV/U being referenced here is (implicitly) referring to the NAV/U at the beginning of the period. In cases where a SELL dividend has just been issued, this is the 200 Day Reserve amount.

The goal of this .5% per day reduction is to offer a buy-back price at which the shareholder can have his shares bought back for the NAV/U less the dividends he's been paid and, essentially, forfeits any gains to the NAV/U for that period that have come from sales of EXCH.

The contract was written with the Period NAV/U to be referenced for this calculation, not the Daily NAV/U, so I will be crediting this user the difference, which is:

200 Day Reserve at start of Period = 0.13179800

0.13179800 less (6 Days * .5%) = 0.12784406

The user was paid out 0.12426292, leaving a credit balance of .00358114 per share.

48 Shares * .00358114 = 0.17189472

It's not much of a difference, but I feel that the spirit of the contract needs to be followed in cases like this.

Finally, this has brought up another issue with the buy-back price if the fund's Reserve is deficient. For instance, let's say that the Difficulty is decreasing and the fund's NAV/U is only equal to 100 Days of Dividends. Using this Period's values as an example.

Example NAV/U = .065899
Example Daily Dividend = 0.00065899

If the fund were to offer buy-back at the Period NAV/U less .5%, then people could ostensibly get paid the daily dividends and then have their shares bought back for more than should be paid to them.

10 Day of Divs = .0065899
Share Buy Back Price = .065899 * .95 = .06260405

.0065899 + .06260405 = .06919395, which is higher than the original Period NAV/U, due to the fact that .5% of the Period NAV/U no longer represents the daily dividend amount.

TL;DR So, for this reason, beginning with the next period, I'm going to revise the Buy-Back price calculation to be the Daily NAV/U less 2% (2% to provide a little friction to the market). This will circumvent the issue with the current calculation and also make it simpler to calculate the current Buy-back price.

Havelock is working on the Auto-Exch process; hopefully they'll have it completed before the next DI and I'll be able to issue a revised contract showing the new Management fee and this Buy-Back calculation change.
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March 07, 2014, 05:10:26 PM
 #189

Period 4, Day 7 Report - March 7, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 456.06946577

Total Units: 3597

NAV/U: BTC 0.12679162


This is the first day that there have actually been 0 sales of EXCH! I think some people may be holding off to see where the Difficulty goes...
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March 08, 2014, 05:05:57 PM
 #190

Period 4, Day 8 Report - March 8, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 459.23990884

Total Units: 3639

NAV/U: BTC 0.12619948


42 Units purchased right before Noon were bought-back for their missed dividend amount.
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March 09, 2014, 05:58:27 PM
 #191

Period 4, Day 9 Report - March 9, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 456.84184423

Total Units: 3639

NAV/U: BTC 0.12554049

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March 10, 2014, 04:09:11 PM
 #192

Period 4, Day 10 Report - March 10, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 459.98460970

Total Units: 3681

NAV/U: BTC 0.12496186

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March 11, 2014, 04:11:45 PM
 #193

Period 4, Day 11 Report - March 11, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 460.98890525

Total Units: 3707

NAV/U: BTC 0.12435632


Looks like the Difficulty will change sometime after Noon Wednesday and looks like SELL will still receive a dividend.
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March 12, 2014, 04:03:10 PM
 #194

Period 4, Day 12 Report - March 12, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 458.54602932

Total Units: 3707

NAV/U: BTC 0.12369733

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March 13, 2014, 03:25:02 PM
 #195

Period 4 End Report - March 13, 2014


Previous Units              3122
EXCH Sold                   634
Less Buybacks              48
New Total Units            3708

Previous Balance          411.47336120
Price per EXCH             0.13311598
Gross Sales of EXCH      84.39553132

Less Fees                    0.33758191
Less Dividends              30.71618289
Less Buybacks              6.13651488
Net Balance                  458.67861284


End of Period 3 NAV/U     0.12369973

New Difficulty               4,250,217,920
New Daily Dividend      0.00059162
New Reserve                0.11832400

NAV/U Less New Reserve = 0.12369973 - 0.11832400 = .00537573

SELL Dividend                 0.00537573

You'll notice that I calculate the new Dividend to eight digits and multiply that times 200 Days to get the new Reserve. Those of you that did your own calculations may come up with a slightly different number if you chose not to round or to round elsewhere.

New EXCH Sales Price          0.11950724


As I previously stated that I would, I've now revised the BDD Pair Buy-Back Calculation to be 98% of the current NAV/U; you no longer have to take .5% per # of Days that the Period has been running for.

Havelock assures me that they're still working on the Auto-EXCH, I know that they've been working on a lot of security upgrades in the past few weeks and that has put this a little further back than we would have liked. For now, I'm still planning to hold off on the 2% Management Fee until this feature is implemented.

EDIT: Last week the MINE dividend was paid just a few minutes after Noon, but SELL was delayed by between 10 - 15 minutes. SELL holders should wait until they see the dividend in their account or have received the dividend email to be sure that they have received the dividend today.
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March 13, 2014, 04:09:43 PM
 #196

As I previously stated that I would, I've now revised the BDD Pair Buy-Back Calculation to be 98% of the current NAV/U; you no longer have to take .5% per # of Days that the Period has been running for.

Havelock assures me that they're still working on the Auto-EXCH, I know that they've been working on a lot of security upgrades in the past few weeks and that has put this a little further back than we would have liked. For now, I'm still planning to hold off on the 2% Management Fee until this feature is implemented.

EDIT: Last week the MINE dividend was paid just a few minutes after Noon, but SELL was delayed by between 10 - 15 minutes. SELL holders should wait until they see the dividend in their account or have received the dividend email to be sure that they have received the dividend today.

Wait wait wait. Didn't you say you wanted to enable those changes at the same time?? What about a notion? :/
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March 13, 2014, 04:21:46 PM
 #197

As I previously stated that I would, I've now revised the BDD Pair Buy-Back Calculation to be 98% of the current NAV/U; you no longer have to take .5% per # of Days that the Period has been running for.

Havelock assures me that they're still working on the Auto-EXCH, I know that they've been working on a lot of security upgrades in the past few weeks and that has put this a little further back than we would have liked. For now, I'm still planning to hold off on the 2% Management Fee until this feature is implemented.

EDIT: Last week the MINE dividend was paid just a few minutes after Noon, but SELL was delayed by between 10 - 15 minutes. SELL holders should wait until they see the dividend in their account or have received the dividend email to be sure that they have received the dividend today.

Wait wait wait. Didn't you say you wanted to enable those changes at the same time?? What about a notion? :/

I was hoping that I would be able to change both at the same time, but Havelock still hasn't gotten the Auto-Exch done, so I have not instituted the Management Fee.

I have revised the contract to change the Buy-Back price, as there was some unclear wording there (as explained earlier) and I didn't receive any feedback regarding that change. Do you have an issue with the new buy-back calculation?
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March 13, 2014, 04:22:59 PM
 #198

Period 5, Day 0 Report - March 13, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 436.55167904

Total Units: 3708

NAV/U: BTC 0.1177323
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March 13, 2014, 04:26:57 PM
 #199

I was hoping that I would be able to change both at the same time, but Havelock still hasn't gotten the Auto-Exch done, so I have not instituted the Management Fee.

I have revised the contract to change the Buy-Back price, as there was some unclear wording there (as explained earlier) and I didn't receive any feedback regarding that change. Do you have an issue with the new buy-back calculation?

The change itself is alright I guess. It's just that I have postponed thinking about the matter because I thought I knew there was time.
If you set a date, stick to it next time, aight Smiley
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March 13, 2014, 04:35:26 PM
 #200

I was hoping that I would be able to change both at the same time, but Havelock still hasn't gotten the Auto-Exch done, so I have not instituted the Management Fee.

I have revised the contract to change the Buy-Back price, as there was some unclear wording there (as explained earlier) and I didn't receive any feedback regarding that change. Do you have an issue with the new buy-back calculation?

The change itself is alright I guess. It's just that I have postponed thinking about the matter because I thought I knew there was time.
If you set a date, stick to it next time, aight Smiley

Well, in my defense, I did say that I would be changing it at the end of the period, but I'll try to be as explicitly clear as possible when discussing timeframes for changes like this.  Wink

TL;DR So, for this reason, beginning with the next period, I'm going to revise the Buy-Back price calculation to be the Daily NAV/U less 2% (2% to provide a little friction to the market). This will circumvent the issue with the current calculation and also make it simpler to calculate the current Buy-back price.

Havelock is working on the Auto-Exch process; hopefully they'll have it completed before the next DI and I'll be able to issue a revised contract showing the new Management fee and this Buy-Back calculation change.
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