[Havelock] Bitcoin Difficulty Derivative (BDD)

[twentyseventy]

Hi Twentyseventy,

I don't know how your excel sheet works but would it be much effort to post with every diff change how much next diff change should be in order to receive dividend.

Would help alot of ppl.

Cheers,
EnJoyThis

Yeah, I can do that. Basically, your inputs here are the Current Difficulty, the NAV/U at the end of the last period (from the Period Report), and the Difficulty Increase.

You'll have to play with the Diff Increase and see what value will get you to a positive SELL dividend. Once you've got the smallest Diff Increase that will give you a positive SELL div, then you've got your answer.

Here's the link; you'll have to download it and edit it locally: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B6foRwycUyraQkNWVVNOY1ZDdzA/view?usp=sharing

[1714615550]

1714615550

[1714615550]

1714615550

[1714615550]

1714615550

[EnJoyThis]

Hi Twentyseventy,

I don't know how your excel sheet works but would it be much effort to post with every diff change how much next diff change should be in order to receive dividend.

Would help alot of ppl.

Cheers,
EnJoyThis

Yeah, I can do that. Basically, your inputs here are the Current Difficulty, the NAV/U at the end of the last period (from the Period Report), and the Difficulty Increase.

You'll have to play with the Diff Increase and see what value will get you to a positive SELL dividend. Once you've got the smallest Diff Increase that will give you a positive SELL div, then you've got your answer.

Here's the link; you'll have to download it and edit it locally: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B6foRwycUyraQkNWVVNOY1ZDdzA/view?usp=sharing

Thanks, downloaded the file and filled in the 'blanks'.

To all readers: with todays numbers we would need to see a 16.7% increase in diff to get a 'positive' reserve fund.

Cheers

[twentyseventy]

Hi Twentyseventy,

I don't know how your excel sheet works but would it be much effort to post with every diff change how much next diff change should be in order to receive dividend.

Would help alot of ppl.

Cheers,
EnJoyThis

Yeah, I can do that. Basically, your inputs here are the Current Difficulty, the NAV/U at the end of the last period (from the Period Report), and the Difficulty Increase.

You'll have to play with the Diff Increase and see what value will get you to a positive SELL dividend. Once you've got the smallest Diff Increase that will give you a positive SELL div, then you've got your answer.

Here's the link; you'll have to download it and edit it locally: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B6foRwycUyraQkNWVVNOY1ZDdzA/view?usp=sharing

Thanks, downloaded the file and filled in the 'blanks'.

To all readers: with todays numbers we would need to see a 16.7% increase in diff to get a 'positive' reserve fund.

Cheers

I believe all the blanks were already prefilled with this periods information, I came up with 15.4%

[EnJoyThis]

Hi Twentyseventy,

I don't know how your excel sheet works but would it be much effort to post with every diff change how much next diff change should be in order to receive dividend.

Would help alot of ppl.

Cheers,
EnJoyThis

Yeah, I can do that. Basically, your inputs here are the Current Difficulty, the NAV/U at the end of the last period (from the Period Report), and the Difficulty Increase.

You'll have to play with the Diff Increase and see what value will get you to a positive SELL dividend. Once you've got the smallest Diff Increase that will give you a positive SELL div, then you've got your answer.

Here's the link; you'll have to download it and edit it locally: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B6foRwycUyraQkNWVVNOY1ZDdzA/view?usp=sharing

Thanks, downloaded the file and filled in the 'blanks'.

To all readers: with todays numbers we would need to see a 16.7% increase in diff to get a 'positive' reserve fund.

Cheers

I believe all the blanks were already prefilled with this periods information, I came up with 15.4%

Ow my bad, I didn't read correctly. I had put in the NAV/U of today instead of the one at the end of the last period.

[twentyseventy]

Ow my bad, I didn't read correctly. I had put in the NAV/U of today instead of the one at the end of the last period.

No big, just wanted to make sure it was working right!

[NotLambchop]

Good news?

Hey twentyseventy.  It seems some folks are looking for your friend ABitInterested, the one with the legit offline business.
Care to help them?
Or?

Will be pushing him this week to get his act together; otherwise I will be releasing his personal information so that people can seek to be made whole financially in whatever way they see fit. If I choose to do so, that is my prerogative and I will do so when I feel the time is appropriate.

Not happy with him myself; I still have yet to recoup my initial investment.

[twentyseventy]

Have replied to most PMs.

Have called him three times last week and he's not getting back to me at all.

I'm currently in the middle of moving houses so that's why I've been away from the forums. Pretty much going to give him one more chance to come back up before doxing him.

Will be back here tomorrow to post BDD updates and issue the ultimatum post for ABI.

[twentyseventy]

Period 24, Day 2 Report - November 7, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 208.38421040

Total Units: 18094

NAV/U: BTC 0.01151675


Period 24, Day 3 Report - November 8, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 210.11160980

Total Units: 18340

NAV/U: BTC 0.01145646


Period 24, Day 4 Report - November 9, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 209.00566230

Total Units: 18345

NAV/U: BTC 0.01139305


Period 24, Day 5 Report - November 10, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 209.12703833

Total Units: 18455

NAV/U: BTC 0.01133172

Thanks to everyone for their patience

[twentyseventy]

Period 24, Day 6 Report - November 11, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 207.95533038

Total Units: 18455

NAV/U: BTC 0.01126823

[NotLambchop]

...
Will be back here tomorrow to post BDD updates and issue the ultimatum post for ABI.

Link?

[twentyseventy]

Period 24, Day 7 Report - November 12, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 207.35652156

Total Units: 18504

NAV/U: BTC 0.01120603

[twentyseventy]

Period 24, Day 8 Report - November 13, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 206.67275900

Total Units: 18546

NAV/U: BTC 0.01114379

[twentyseventy]

Period 24, Day 9 Report - November 14, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 205.54204074

Total Units: 18550

NAV/U: BTC 0.01108043

[twentyseventy]

Period 24, Day 10 Report - November 15, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 204.36430124

Total Units: 18550

NAV/U: BTC 0.01101694

[twentyseventy]

Period 24, Day 11 Report - November 16, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 203.18656174

Total Units: 18550

NAV/U: BTC 0.01095345

[twentyseventy]

Period 24, Day 12 Report - November 17, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 202.00882224

Total Units: 18550

NAV/U: BTC 0.01088996

[twentyseventy]

Period 24, Day 13 Report - November 18, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 200.83108274

Total Units: 18550

NAV/U: BTC 0.01082647

[jjdub7]

Heya 2070, been a while-ish.

Suggestion: If you do decide to reincarnate BDD with a 5TH/s initial offering, I'd suggest making the B.EXCH market price percentage over the NAV/U increase with the number of excess days of funds in reserve (if there is an excess - otherwise keep it at the fat 2%).  

The reasoning behind this is similar to a point I made a while ago in response to thread members' observations that buyers of B.EXCH who held both the B.MINE and B.SELL shares saw a net yield due to the time series (essentially, in isolation of the capital inflows themselves, "Ponzi"-like) effect of more investors moving capital into the fund after them.  I argued that this was a beneficial effect of the fund's mechanics in that overall it encouraged aggregate net inflows into the fund over time by giving investors an incentive to move capital into the fund sooner rather than later - filling fund reserve deficits more quickly than if this "implied" yield was somehow removed from the fund.

However, when the fund holds an excess of reserves, this means that potential new investors can explicitly buy into a higher-valued pair of units for the same cost.  Granted, this situation would only arise in situations where difficulty periods saw heavy volatility in the forecasted difficulty increase (especially evident with this fund, where some traders use BitcoinWisdom's moving-average-Taylor-Series-like forecasting mdoel), or similarly, when heavy sales of B.EXCH/pair buybacks occurred late in the period (typically past the 10th day).  The circumstances would be rather rare, but still, such a B.EXCH pricing policy should have the effect of further padding the fund NAV/U over fund lifetimes (as well as padding your commission on sales margins, I might add).

Cheers!

[twentyseventy]

Period 24 End Report - November 19, 2014


Previous Units              17626
EXCH Sold                   924
Less Buybacks              0
New Total Units        18550

Previous Balance          206.29715450
Price per EXCH             0.01205525
Gross Sales of EXCH      11.13905100

Less Fees                    0.04455622
Less Dividends              16.32797726
Less Buybacks              0.00000000
Less Mgmt Fee              0.23258928
Net Balance            200.83108274

End of Period NAV/U     0.01082647

New Difficulty                  40,300,030,328
New Daily Dividend         0.00006239
New Reserve per Unit        0.01247800

New Reserve Less NAV/U = 0.01247800 - 0.01082647 = -0.00165153


SELL Dividend                 None (Because NAV/U is less than 200 Days of Dividends)

Days of Dividends On Hand    ~173.5

You'll notice that I calculate the new Dividend to eight digits and multiply that times 200 Days to get the new Reserve. Those of you that did your own calculations may come up with a slightly different number if you chose not to round or to round elsewhere.

New EXCH Sales Price          0.01115126

[twentyseventy]

Heya 2070, been a while-ish.

Suggestion: If you do decide to reincarnate BDD with a 5TH/s initial offering, I'd suggest making the B.EXCH market price percentage over the NAV/U increase with the number of excess days of funds in reserve (if there is an excess - otherwise keep it at the fat 2%).  

The reasoning behind this is similar to a point I made a while ago in response to thread members' observations that buyers of B.EXCH who held both the B.MINE and B.SELL shares saw a net yield due to the time series (essentially, in isolation of the capital inflows themselves, "Ponzi"-like) effect of more investors moving capital into the fund after them.  I argued that this was a beneficial effect of the fund's mechanics in that overall it encouraged aggregate net inflows into the fund over time by giving investors an incentive to move capital into the fund sooner rather than later - filling fund reserve deficits more quickly than if this "implied" yield was somehow removed from the fund.

However, when the fund holds an excess of reserves, this means that potential new investors can explicitly buy into a higher-valued pair of units for the same cost.  Granted, this situation would only arise in situations where difficulty periods saw heavy volatility in the forecasted difficulty increase (especially evident with this fund, where some traders use BitcoinWisdom's moving-average-Taylor-Series-like forecasting mdoel), or similarly, when heavy sales of B.EXCH/pair buybacks occurred late in the period (typically past the 10th day).  The circumstances would be rather rare, but still, such a B.EXCH pricing policy should have the effect of further padding the fund NAV/U over fund lifetimes (as well as padding your commission on sales margins, I might add).

Cheers!

Not ignoring you, just very busy at work today. Thanks for the suggestion, let me review it tonight-