[Havelock] Bitcoin Difficulty Derivative (BDD)

[pumawolf]

what difficulty increase is needed for an b sell pay out.

[1714633249]

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[1714633249]

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[1714633249]

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[1714633249]

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[dyask]

what difficulty increase is needed for an b sell pay out.

At this point, probably over 50%.   It won't happen this time, but you could buy a ton of B.SELL cheap in case it does happen again.     If it does it will be multiple changes down the road. 

[twentyseventy]

Period 28, Day 5 Report - January 5, 2015

Balance Post Divs: BTC 179.37553529

Total Units: 22871

NAV/U: BTC 0.00784292

[twentyseventy]

I've looked at this thread at least 100 times and still try to make sense of it and what derivative investing is all about...Wish it was simply to understand. I get the concept that you are betting for or against the expected rate of hashing reward for the mining farm in question here, but don't understand how you can evaluate successfully and profitably when the time to get out would be (or what you would use to judge that). You keep taking in dividends but at the same time the principle is depreciating.

First off, this is not investing - it's speculating. You're speculating about where the difficulty is going to be in the future and how fast that it's going to get there.

There is no mining equipment whatsoever. Dividends are actually a misnomer, they are daily payouts to the holders of MINE. I suggest you go through the FAQs and some explanations on the first few pages and go from there-

[pumawolf]

what difficulty increase is needed for an b sell pay out.

At this point, probably over 50%.   It won't happen this time, but you could buy a ton of B.SELL cheap in case it does happen again.     If it does it will be multiple changes down the road. 

oh fuk haha, did not expect it to be that high, thanks for the reply.  i will be following this stock n playing it, theres alot to learn in here.

[ZephramC]

what difficulty increase is needed for an b sell pay out.

At this point, probably over 50%.   It won't happen this time, but you could buy a ton of B.SELL cheap in case it does happen again.     If it does it will be multiple changes down the road. 

My very rough step-by-step calculation... {for each unit:} BDD should hold 200 days of dividends. Current dividend is 0.00006187 BTC. BDD should hold 0.012374 BTC. BDD currently holds 0.00784292 BTC.
B.SELL will pay dividend if B.MINE dividend becomes 0.00784292/200=0.00003921 BTC. This will happen for difficulty 64.13 giga. That means 64.13/40.64 = 1.578 ... We need 57.8% increase.

The number of BDD units will obviously change, but this should be rough estimation. Please correct me if I made some serious mistake.

[twentyseventy]

Period 28, Day 6 Report - January 6, 2015

Balance Post Divs: BTC 180.73101343

Total Units: 23225

NAV/U: BTC 0.00778174

[Icon]

So.. question, how long do you think this bitcoin stash will hold? Was thinking of adding more B.Mine shares @ 200, was looking at the daily dividends they lasted a year do you think it will last another year?

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[twentyseventy]

Period 28, Day 7 Report - January 7, 2015

Balance Post Divs: BTC 181.37494210

Total Units: 23493

NAV/U: BTC 0.00772038

So.. question, how long do you think this bitcoin stash will hold? Was thinking of adding more B.Mine shares @ 200, was looking at the daily dividends they lasted a year do you think it will last another year?

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I'm not sure; it all depends on the Difficulty, that's kind of the point to this whole thing 

[twentyseventy]

Period 28, Day 8 Report - January 8, 2015

Balance Post Divs: BTC 181.42345224

Total Units: 23688

NAV/U: BTC 0.00765887

[twentyseventy]

Period 28, Day 9 Report - January 9, 2015

Balance Post Divs: BTC 180.08776942

Total Units: 23705

NAV/U: BTC 0.00759703

[Icon]

Period 1, Day 5 Report

Total Units: 617

Balance Post Divs: 146.98800326

NAV/U: 0.23823015


This was from page 3 of this post an year old.. so i am thinking this fund is going to last a while .. correct?   

[AllInBit]

Period 1, Day 5 Report

Total Units: 617

Balance Post Divs: 146.98800326

NAV/U: 0.23823015


This was from page 3 of this post an year old.. so i am thinking this fund is going to last a while .. correct?   

twentyseventy
Hero Member
*****
   
Re: [Havelock] Bitcoin Difficulty Derivative (BDD)
Reply with quote  #791
Period 27, Day 6 Report - December 23, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 191.36607260

Total Units: 22101

NAV/U: BTC 0.00865870

Quote from: galdur on December 23, 2014, 10:55:16 AM
So, this will expire once the balance gets to zero ?

Yes, per the contract, the fund will be closed and pay out all of its funds once the NAV/U reaches 0.0002 BTC (.2mBTC). The contract cannot pay out (much) more than the NAV/U, so MINE holders can only receive a maximum of the NAV/U and no more. SELL holders will receive some of this amount if the Difficulty significantly increases and outpaces the resulting decline MINE payouts.

[galdur]

I´ve been making some easy dust when they overbid B.MINE by simply buying B.EXCH and dumping the B.MINE part on them. But I guess they´re on to it now.

[galdur]

Hey, i hope twentyseventy is all right. Repricing overdue.

[twentyseventy]

Period 28, Day 10 Report - January 10, 2015

Balance Post Divs: BTC 179.42447190

Total Units: 23811

NAV/U: BTC 0.00753536

Yep, still here - just had a funeral yesterday that ended up lasting all day. Have repriced and will again at Noon.

[galdur]

No problem. Good luck, g

[twentyseventy]

Period 28, Day 11 Report - January 11, 2015

Balance Post Divs: BTC 178.30753732

Total Units: 23858

NAV/U: BTC 0.00747370

[ddalex]

... it all depends on the Difficulty, that's kind of the point to this whole thing  

Clever boy, do something like this for Paycoin (XPY)
All depending on Josh Garza words https://hashtalk.org/topic/28801/my-word
and antiPaycoin gang https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=857670.0

[twentyseventy]

... it all depends on the Difficulty, that's kind of the point to this whole thing  

Clever boy, do something like this for Paycoin (XPY)
All depending on Josh Garza words https://hashtalk.org/topic/28801/my-word
and antiPaycoin gang https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=857670.0

I'd consider it, but it seems that it might be something better served by a prediction market. I'll check into doing something of the sort though.

Difficulty looks like it will change after noon, but I will be tracking and adjusting as necessary-