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Warning: Moderators do not remove likely scams. You must use your own brain: caveat emptor. Watch out for Ponzi schemes. Do not invest more than you can afford to lose.

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Author Topic: [Havelock] Bitcoin Difficulty Derivative (BDD)  (Read 290218 times)
twentyseventy (OP)
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January 25, 2015, 07:42:42 PM
 #861

Period 29, Day 11 Report - January 25, 2015

Balance Post Divs: BTC 177.86892488

Total Units: 26655

NAV/U: BTC 0.00667300
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January 26, 2015, 07:40:30 PM
 #862

Period 29, Day 12 Report - January 26, 2015

Balance Post Divs: BTC 177.93612559

Total Units: 26894

NAV/U: BTC 0.00661620
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January 27, 2015, 02:29:47 PM
 #863

Looks like the difficulty will change before Noon today; if so, I'll take the time to issue the report. If it falls around the normal report time, MINE divs could be delayed until 1PM.
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January 27, 2015, 04:15:33 PM
 #864

Period 29 End Report - January 27, 2015

Previous Units              23910
EXCH Sold                   3646
Less Buybacks              2
New Total Units        27554

Previous Balance          177.21906533
Price per EXCH             Variable
Gross Sales of EXCH      25.94222691

Less Fees                    0.10375628
Less Dividends              20.20878432
Less Buybacks              0.01319006
Less Mgmt Fee              0.50781506
Net Balance            182.32774652

End of Period NAV/U     0.00661710

New Difficulty                  41,272,873,895
New Daily Dividend         0.00006092
New Reserve per Unit        0.01218400

New Reserve Less NAV/U = 0.01218400 - 0.00661710 = -0.00556690


SELL Dividend                 None (Because NAV/U is less than 200 Days of Dividends)

Days of Dividends On Hand    ~108.6

You'll notice that I calculate the new Dividend to eight digits and multiply that times 200 Days to get the new Reserve. Those of you that did your own calculations may come up with a slightly different number if you chose not to round or to round elsewhere.
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January 27, 2015, 05:02:29 PM
 #865

Thanks a lot for your prompt efforts twentyseventy and good luck, g.

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January 27, 2015, 05:10:45 PM
 #866

Period 30, Day 0 Report - January 27, 2015

Balance Post Divs: BTC 180.64915684

Total Units: 27554

NAV/U: BTC 0.00655618
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January 28, 2015, 05:07:56 PM
 #867

Period 30, Day 1 Report - January 28, 2015

Balance Post Divs: BTC 182.23686545

Total Units: 28054

NAV/U: BTC 0.00649593
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January 29, 2015, 07:11:33 PM
 #868

Period 30, Day 2 Report - January 29, 2015

Balance Post Divs: BTC 181.97107247

Total Units: 28277

NAV/U: BTC 0.00643530
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January 30, 2015, 05:05:12 PM
 #869

Period 30, Day 3 Report - January 30, 2015

Balance Post Divs: BTC 180.71644123

Total Units: 28350

NAV/U: BTC 0.00637447

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February 01, 2015, 12:09:43 AM
 #870

Period 30, Day 4 Report - January 31, 2015

Balance Post Divs: BTC 179.02110829

Total Units: 28355

NAV/U: BTC 0.00631356
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February 01, 2015, 12:25:57 AM
 #871

Happy BDD Anniversary everyone!  Grin
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February 01, 2015, 12:28:43 AM
 #872

Happy BDD Anniversary everyone!  Grin

LoL 2 post in 1 day had me worried there for a sec,  oh and happy B-Day. Here's hoping for  another year  Grin Grin

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February 01, 2015, 03:07:46 AM
 #873

Happy BDD Anniversary everyone!  Grin
Happy BDDay. Crazy that it's been one year already!
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February 01, 2015, 08:46:43 PM
 #874

LoL 2 post in 1 day had me worried there for a sec,  oh and happy B-Day. Here's hoping for  another year  Grin Grin

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Happy BDDay. Crazy that it's been one year already!

Thanks guys! Been an interesting experiment so far for sure.

Period 30, Day 5 Report - February 1, 2015

Balance Post Divs: BTC 177.69196208

Total Units: 28418

NAV/U: BTC 0.00625279
galdur
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February 01, 2015, 09:06:04 PM
 #875

This is basically a cloud mining ponzi scheme is disguise. No no, don´t get me wrong I´m not accusing twentyseventy of anything at all. They´re just showing us how it´s done. And obviously when BTC has fallen enough to wipe out all the conventional operations - this will be the last guy standing.

When difficulty is steadily increasing at a fast pace the ponzi is doing great. The operator pays out the dividends and keeps the B.SELL dividends for himself mostly. Not so when difficulty goes into a decreasing trend. Then the B.MINE dividend just has to increase, there´s no hedging from B.SELL and at some point the scheme just isn´t sustainable anymore.

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February 01, 2015, 10:21:07 PM
 #876

This is basically a cloud mining ponzi scheme is disguise. No no, don´t get me wrong I´m not accusing twentyseventy of anything at all. They´re just showing us how it´s done. And obviously when BTC has fallen enough to wipe out all the conventional operations - this will be the last guy standing.

When difficulty is steadily increasing at a fast pace the ponzi is doing great. The operator pays out the dividends and keeps the B.SELL dividends for himself mostly. Not so when difficulty goes into a decreasing trend. Then the B.MINE dividend just has to increase, there´s no hedging from B.SELL and at some point the scheme just isn´t sustainable anymore.

I disagree with you here; people use 'Ponzi' as a very broad term and this is not what BDD is at all. A Ponzi Scheme, named after Charles Ponzi, takes new payments in and uses those new payments to pay existing fundholders a fictitious profit. Normally a Ponzi Scheme is accompanied by hype regarding high interest or guaranteed returns.

BDD takes new payments and uses it to pay new fundholders. Each day I publish the value per unit of MINE/SELL so everyone knows exactly how much each unit pair is worth.

I don't like using the word 'bet' because it invites gambling comparisons, so that's what I call unitholders 'speculators'. But essentially BDD is a bet on the difficulty; which way it will go - I take 2% up front to manage and publish updates.

Right now, you can see that people are betting heavily on MINE - those that purchase MINE at market are now calculating that their maximum return is under 10% (it varies based on the price of the last sale of course).

I see the reason for your comparison - the 'what goes up must come down' of the inevitability of mining in the current ecosystem - but I feel the need to express that that is not Ponzi-like and I do not benefit (directly) by the difficulty increasing, decreasing, or going sideways. Same with price - at $1 or $10,000, BDD works the same way.

Though it does have a defined endpoint, it has always been more fair, in my eyes, than cloud mining. There's no minimum price of mining viability, maintenance fees, or miner's luck to take into account - just cold, hard math. If you want to support the network or tell people that you're a miner, that's great and I respect that desire - but today's mining ecosystem is littered with the corpses of projects that were either a loser for the consumer, the company, or both (CEX.io, Cloudhashing, PBMining) or outright scams masquerading as a mining operation (Paycoin/ZenHash/Hashstaker/GAWza).
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February 01, 2015, 10:33:28 PM
Last edit: February 01, 2015, 10:44:37 PM by galdur
 #877

I wasn´t in any way implying that you were running a ponzi scheme, just describing how an operator would basically go about it. "The operator pays out the dividends and keeps the B.SELL dividends for himself mostly." No, this does not refer to you personally but rather to operators of those schemes.

Obviously since we´re discussing a virtual if you will type of scheme they have other instruments for hedging. I´m not saying they´re using YOUR instruments.

Since it´s a ponzi scheme it makes perfect sense for them to be short their own "product". Which is fine as long as difficulty goes up but if it goes down for weeks or months the hedge disappears and the scheme soon collapses. It´s no coincidence that so many schemes have been giving up the ghost lately and even some supposedly legit operations have been hiccuping it seems.

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February 01, 2015, 10:42:05 PM
 #878

Face it; for the last 12 months there´s a perfect inverse correlation between production capacity (hashrate) and price of product (BTC). When you have such an insane business model it becomes a question of which runs out first buyers of product (and cloud mining contracts) or bankers to finance the production. The only way of prolonging the mess (ponzi scheme if you will) is to be short your own product.

All I´m saying twentysomething is that your instruments there at Havelock reflect this perfectly.

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February 02, 2015, 05:48:06 PM
 #879

Period 30, Day 6 Report - February 2, 2015

Balance Post Divs: BTC 176.70827703

Total Units: 28538

NAV/U: BTC 0.00619203
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February 02, 2015, 05:53:44 PM
 #880

I wasn´t in any way implying that you were running a ponzi scheme, just describing how an operator would basically go about it. "The operator pays out the dividends and keeps the B.SELL dividends for himself mostly." No, this does not refer to you personally but rather to operators of those schemes.

Obviously since we´re discussing a virtual if you will type of scheme they have other instruments for hedging. I´m not saying they´re using YOUR instruments.

Since it´s a ponzi scheme it makes perfect sense for them to be short their own "product". Which is fine as long as difficulty goes up but if it goes down for weeks or months the hedge disappears and the scheme soon collapses. It´s no coincidence that so many schemes have been giving up the ghost lately and even some supposedly legit operations have been hiccuping it seems.

Yes, this is pretty much what the PMBs (perpetual mining bonds) of last year and 2012 did - the operator betting against their customers that the difficulty would increase. Up until now, that's worked out pretty well for them.

Face it; for the last 12 months there´s a perfect inverse correlation between production capacity (hashrate) and price of product (BTC). When you have such an insane business model it becomes a question of which runs out first buyers of product (and cloud mining contracts) or bankers to finance the production. The only way of prolonging the mess (ponzi scheme if you will) is to be short your own product.

All I´m saying twentysomething is that your instruments there at Havelock reflect this perfectly.

I posted a long explanation of my thought process behind why this is happening / happened - mostly that the hardware financed during high-BTC times was continuously hitting the market and further driving the difficulty up and the price down.
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