[Havelock] Bitcoin Difficulty Derivative (BDD)

[twentyseventy]

So...possible reasons the MINE shares are still so highly valued given last period's payout and this period's projections?

It can't just be substitution out of more expensive mining service like Ghash, can it?

Thats my guess. Its only a matter of time before all the noobs from cex.io and cloudmining figure out they are getting ripped off.

Barring people believing that the Difficulty will hit a wall soon, I suppose it's the age-old overvaluation of Mining equipment. Assuming that Difficulty will continue to increase, this graph below (MINE / 90 Days) should decrease in lock-step with Difficulty increases, just like SELL does. However, it seems that buyers are holding the price up around the .028-.033 mark. There was some significant MINE buy activity right after I began mentioning BDD on the CEX.io threads, but I'm not sure if any of that carried over.

MINE

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[twentyseventy]

Period 11, Day 2 Report - May 26, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 422.55895021

Total Units: 8915

NAV/U: BTC 0.04739864

[twentyseventy]

Period 11, Day 3 Report - May 27, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 421.13714450

Total Units: 8930

NAV/U: BTC 0.04715981

[twentyseventy]

Period 11, Day 4 Report - May 28, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 419.32657804

Total Units: 8937

NAV/U: BTC 0.04692028

[twentyseventy]

Period 11, Day 5 Report - May 29, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 425.45811726

Total Units: 9109

NAV/U: BTC 0.04670744

[twentyseventy]

Period 11, Day 6 Report - May 30, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 423.26749385

Total Units: 9109

NAV/U: BTC 0.04646695

[twentyseventy]

Period 11, Day 7 Report - May 31, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 422.13604234

Total Units: 9131

NAV/U: BTC 0.04623108

[twentyseventy]

Period 11, Day 8 Report - June 1, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 420.37342575

Total Units: 9140

NAV/U: BTC 0.04599271

[twentyseventy]

Period 11, Day 9 Report - June 2, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 418.22349133

Total Units: 9141

NAV/U: BTC 0.04575248

[twentyseventy]

Period 11, Day 10 Report - June 3, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 385.29788058

Total Units: 8452

NAV/U: BTC 0.04558659

Lots of buy-backs today!

[bitcoinvideos]

I see the resale value of the units going down quite quickly...any advice on how I should take that? Is it just generally accepted to be the way it will be? Or is this a sudden dump from someone?

[eltopo]

You should read the first post. If you don't understand why both assets are depleting, don't invest.

Hint: It works as intended.

[bitcoinvideos]

I understand why the assets are depleting (obviously the relative value of theoretical mining hardware will be worth less a little each day) but the drop today has been large and so I wondered if anyone had some input on why. Thanks for being a douche though...

[twentyseventy]

Yes, it looks like there was a big MINE sell-off last night, which triggered an opposite reaction - sending SELL higher.

eltopo can be forgiven for asking you to read the OP, I was going to do the same when I read your message. Quite often someone stops by the thread and wants a quick overview of the current market conditions without even understanding the Derivative's basics.

[bitcoinvideos]

I understand! Thanks for touching bases.

[tupelo]

Hm i have been working on a similar security. How is the overall performance? Is market efficiency high enough to secure a reasonable tracking of BTC's difficulty?

Interesting stuff, and good work on your part, OP!

Thanks

[twentyseventy]

Hm i have been working on a similar security. How is the overall performance? Is market efficiency high enough to secure a reasonable tracking of BTC's difficulty?

Interesting stuff, and good work on your part, OP!

Thanks

I'd say that the market's been keeping track pretty well - the great thing about this model is that, if the market gets too out-of-whack, the arbitrage opportunities give a good financial incentive to rebalance it.

To give credit where credit is due, the model is based on Deprived' DMS asset (though I believe that I've made some improvements, not least that I haven't disappeared  )

[eltopo]

[...] that I haven't disappeared 

... yet 

Besides, on a more serious note: Are you able to pull the distribution of MINE and SELL holders from havelock? I'd like to know how many holders own more than 1000 of MINE or SELL, more than 100 etc

[twentyseventy]

[...] that I haven't disappeared 

... yet 

Besides, on a more serious note: Are you able to pull the distribution of MINE and SELL holders from havelock? I'd like to know how many holders own more than 1000 of MINE or SELL, more than 100 etc

Sure, that's pretty easy to do. I've removed the emails here; anyone with a sufficiently large amount of shares should be able to pick themselves out of the sheet(s) due to the number of the shares that they own.

SELL is obviously more consolidated than MINE. Owning a significant portion of MINE has no benefit, but owning a significant percentage of SELL would allow the top holders to yield power in the event of BDD needing to hold a vote.

MINE
The top 5 holders control 2166 shares, or 25.60% of all MINE Shares
The top 20 holders control 4639 shares, or 55%% of all MINE Shares
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pDrbl_U3RIn8g52vzUsw4ANd6ICo3EJJlM4SZa_sE6k/edit?usp=sharing

SELL
The top 5 holders control 3719 shares, or 44% of all SELL Shares
The top 20 holders control 6026 shares, or 71.60% of all SELL Shares
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xKrcBPRYPSlx_akhUJz8zxQSMh3uWRWgzcr7L-3K60I/edit#gid=1990358727

[twentyseventy]

Period 11, Day 11 Report - June 4, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 382.20996391

Total Units: 8428

NAV/U: BTC 0.04535001