Count down to Iran invasion

[P4man]

Fair point.  If the mullahs did attack the US mainland or kill significant numbers of American civilians, all bets would be off.  

lol what? Thats never gonna happen. Iran has zero interest in doing that, and they likely dont even have the ability. Nothing about Irans posturing or actions is aggressive, its all defensive and in response to endless threats, sanctions and actual hostilities and western sponsored terrorism.

Like I said before, I dont want idealize their regime, nor do I envy people living under the Iranian regime (though its much better than, say Saudi Arabia), but I actually greatly admire Irans international policies. No regime in the world has a bigger incentive to develop nuclear weapons, yet if put aside the rethoric and look at the facts, all indications are they are not working on one, they keep adhering to the non proliferation treaty (unlike the US and Israel) and they keep willing to talk and negotiate with the UN, the IAEA even the US, despite all that the US is doing to them.

They have shown extreme restraint considering everything thats being done to them. We constantly lie about what they say and do trying to scapegoat them. We deny them their "inalienable" right to nuclear energy despite having a signed a treaty with them that specifically grants them that right. We routinely conduct terrorist attacks inside Iran, we constantly threaten them with war, yet another regime change and we even refuse to rule out a nuclear attack. We sanction them in just about any possible way. And how does Iran react? With dignity and honor IMO.

Anyway, Iran is not about to invade the US or any other country for that matter, Iran does not want war; the only ones that want war are certain fractions within the US and Israel, so what is much more likely is a Gulf of Tonkin Incident. Whether or not staged, faked, provoked, accidental or real, Iran certainly does have the capability to do some serious damage to US military assets in their backyard. And that might be exactly what some people are hoping for, but not in Teheran.

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[molecular]

Fair point.  If the mullahs did attack the US mainland or kill significant numbers of American civilians, all bets would be off.  

lol what? Thats never gonna happen. Iran has zero interest in doing that, and they likely dont even have the ability. Nothing about Irans posturing or actions is aggressive, its all defensive and in response to endless threats, sanctions and actual hostilities and western sponsored terrorism.

Like I said before, I dont want idealize their regime, nor do I envy people living under the Iranian regime (though its much better than, say Saudi Arabia), but I actually greatly admire Irans international policies. No regime in the world has a bigger incentive to develop nuclear weapons, yet if put aside the rethoric and look at the facts, all indications are they are not working on one, they keep adhering to the non proliferation treaty (unlike the US and Israel) and they keep willing to talk and negotiate with the UN, the IAEA even the US, despite all that the US is doing to them.

They have shown extreme restraint considering everything thats being done to them. We constantly lie about what they say and do trying to scapegoat them. We deny them their "inalienable" right to nuclear energy despite having a signed a treaty with them that specifically grants them that right. We routinely conduct terrorist attacks inside Iran, we constantly threaten them with war, yet another regime change and we even refuse to rule out a nuclear attack. We sanction them in just about any possible way. And how does Iran react? With dignity and honor IMO.

Anyway, Iran is not about to invade the US or any other country for that matter, Iran does not want war; the only ones that want war are certain fractions within the US and Israel, so what is much more likely is a Gulf of Tonkin Incident. Whether or not staged, faked, provoked, accidental or real, Iran certainly does have the capability to do some serious damage to US military assets in their backyard. And that might be exactly what some people are hoping for, but not in Teheran.

well said, +1

[Hawker]

I agree P4man - I totally agree.  But when dealing with paranoid nutters who think 9/11 was a government trick on the American public, its best to cover all bases.

[molecular]

US is moving thousands of troops to Israel...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wgn04hW2i44&feature=g-all-u&context=G23850b8FAAAAAAAABAA

[legitnick]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_WVtpao0KSM

[Eveofwar]

http://www.voanews.com/english/news/middle-east/iran/US-Rescues-Iranians-Held-Hostage-by-Pirates-136843453.html

Maybe this cut some tension...

[altuin]

I still see no clear evidence pointing to anything actually happening.

[molecular]

I still see no clear evidence pointing to anything actually happening.

Let's hope things will get handled in a prudent fashion.

[molecular]

Jim Rickards interview about possible iran war.

http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2012/1/14_Jim_Rickards_files/Jim%20Rickards%201%3A14%3A2012.mp3

[P4man]

Jim Rickards interview about possible iran war.

He too is seriously misguided or misguiding. No one with any knowledge of the facts is saying Iran is working on a nuclear weapon today. No one. Not the US intelligence agencies, not the IAEA, not even the US secretary of defense.

Iran is developing the technologies it is explicitly entitled to under the non proliferation treaty (which it signed), and those are the technologies that are needed to be nuclear independent; the so called "full cycle". You can not seriously expect them to give up that right and become dependent on the US or its puppets for nuclear fuel.

Under the NPT and the additional protocol that Iran signed, and the inspections that go with it, its virtually unthinkable a state could secretly build a nuke. If they wanted to build one, they would have to pull out of the NPT and kick the inspectors out. Then it would take them about 2 years before they could have an actual bomb. Which is btw, what north korea did.

The idea that Iran is on the brink of obtaining nukes is laughable. They are on the brink of obtaining most of the technology, which would put them on the same footing as Japan or Germany. You cant deny them that knowledge and its not an imminent threat. If ever Iran would change its mind, we would still have ample time to respond.

[bb113]

True. Iran would love to to sell oil for other currencies than USD. The Empire doesn't like that. It's something that can absolutely not be allowed. Iraq tried it, see what happened: first Saddam Hussein (former CIA agent) was installed and when he acted up, he was "removed from office" (they couldn't kill him, so the military had to move in).

The US-Dollar isn't backed by gold any more, it's backed by oil and the US military. A fall of the USD would seal the fall of the US Empire, it cannot be allowed.

Additionally: a war is always good for the military industrial complex. While it doesn't generate wealth, it surely grows the economy. After all: that's how the USA got out of the great depression.

I can't imaginge either Iran nor the US to back down on this one and it involves many other countries' interests, too. WW3?

These charts always ignore the arctic:

The total mean undiscovered conventional oil and gas resources of the Arctic are estimated to be approximately 90 billion barrels of oil, 1,669 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and 44 billion barrels of natural gas liquids.

http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2008/3049/fs2008-3049.pdf

And after that there's a whole continent at the south pole that used to be jungle. It is just really hard to get at the oil down there. I think we will see an independent Antarctica within the next 100 years. Maybe they'll team up with the seasteaders, be a mercantile civ and use bitcoin?

[Hawker]

3 months since the OP warned us and still the US hasn't even moved troops into staging areas let alone prepped an invasion of Iran.

Anyone taking bets on this still being the case in 3 more months ?

[RodeoX]

Interesting and thoughtful comments. Not withstanding the facts stated above, I do not trust Iran. They have been caught lying in the past and hold positions that are beyond the pale for a nation-state. They are an international pariah for a reason.
They do not want a war, as they will surely be among the looser. My opinion is that they are trying to play a dangerous game of brinkmanship.   

[P4man]

Interesting and thoughtful comments. Not withstanding the facts stated above, I do not trust Iran. They have been caught lying in the past and hold positions that are beyond the pale for a nation-state. They are an international pariah for a reason.

The reason for them being a pariah is they do not take orders from Washington.  BTW, its only the US and EU and their puppets that see Iran as a pariah.
As for "positions that are beyond the pale".. what are you thinking off exactly? I hope didnt buy in to all that "wipe Israel of the map" nonsense.. or did you?
If you mean their religious views and inspired policies.. yeah, well, cant disagree there, but compared to most of our close allies in the region, they are extremely progressive and almost a  model democracy. Ever been to Quatar or Saudi Arabia? If Iranians want that changed, its up to them, not us to impose it.

[molecular]

They have been caught lying in the past and hold positions that are beyond the pale for a nation-state.

This is true for the US.

[Eveofwar]

3 months since the OP warned us and still the US hasn't even moved troops into staging areas let alone prepped an invasion of Iran.

Anyone taking bets on this still being the case in 3 more months ?

Oh ?  I'll take your bet.  10 BTC.  Hopefully you can cover that.

http://rt.com/usa/news/us-troops-kuwait-iran-741/

"The United States is not at war with Iran yet, but just in case,the Pentagon says they want to be prepared. To do so, the Department of Defense has dispatched 15,000 troops to the neighboring nation of Kuwait."

Seems like a pretty big troop movement into a staging area to me.

Please pay it to 123gmMWUrwVBZ7orpU8kEdZiC8qUmcAGMK

[Hawker]

3 months since the OP warned us and still the US hasn't even moved troops into staging areas let alone prepped an invasion of Iran.

Anyone taking bets on this still being the case in 3 more months ?

Oh ?  I'll take your bet.  10 BTC.  Hopefully you can cover that.

http://rt.com/usa/news/us-troops-kuwait-iran-741/

"The United States is not at war with Iran yet, but just in case,the Pentagon says they want to be prepared. To do so, the Department of Defense has dispatched 15,000 troops to the neighboring nation of Kuwait."

Seems like a pretty big troop movement into a staging area to me.

Please pay it to 123gmMWUrwVBZ7orpU8kEdZiC8qUmcAGMK

Iraq is quarter of the size of Iran.  The US deployed 466985 troops in Kuwait for that.  Also Kuwait does not share a border with Iran.

Keep beating the drum though...

[P4man]

How many troops did the US deploy for its war against Libya?

[Eveofwar]

3 months since the OP warned us and still the US hasn't even moved troops into staging areas let alone prepped an invasion of Iran.

Anyone taking bets on this still being the case in 3 more months ?

Oh ?  I'll take your bet.  10 BTC.  Hopefully you can cover that.

http://rt.com/usa/news/us-troops-kuwait-iran-741/

"The United States is not at war with Iran yet, but just in case,the Pentagon says they want to be prepared. To do so, the Department of Defense has dispatched 15,000 troops to the neighboring nation of Kuwait."

Seems like a pretty big troop movement into a staging area to me.

Please pay it to 123gmMWUrwVBZ7orpU8kEdZiC8qUmcAGMK

Iraq is quarter of the size of Iran.  The US deployed 466985 troops in Kuwait for that.  Also Kuwait does not share a border with Iran.

Keep beating the drum though...

Oh, I'm sorry...I didn't see where you specified a minimum amount of troops to be moved.  It looks to me as though YOUR bet was that, in 3 months, U.S. still would not have moved troops into "staging areas" for Iran.  Yet, days prior to your statement and bet...the U.S. did move troops into "staging areas".  I'm pretty sure that when I posted the acceptance to your bet, it was within your "3 month period" and troops had been moved.  What does the size of Iraq have to do with anything or Kuwait sharing a border with Iran ?

Like I said...Please pay 10 BTC to 123gmMWUrwVBZ7orpU8kEdZiC8qUmcAGMK...unless you want to default on your own bet.  Is this really the reputation you want to uphold around here ?

[molecular]

How many troops did the US deploy for its war against Libya?

+1

I've been arguing in the favor of the op here. Actually I don't think there will be an "invasion" in terms of ground troops actually invading, that would become a bloody mess pretty quickly. But I guess there will be war... actually one could argue there already is (scientists murdered, currency attacked, embargo,...)