Odds, units advantage | Sportsbook | +100,003 units

[buwaytress]

How quickly time passes! Here we are at the start of the new season, and my usual curtain raiser Community Shield starts in about 3 hours, so I make a hasty bet.

United vs City provided a nice end to last season and while the odds really aren't great, we take solace in the fact that City losses in this cup provided us nice wins in past seasons.

So 100 units at Sportsbet on United to WIN vs City @5.02. Other odds 4.95.
Units advantage: 7

Running advantage after 1 bet: +7
All-time cumulative: +98,431

[buwaytress]

Couldn't let an opening day for the Premier League go by without a quick one in. Wolves are the most tempting today at 18/1 but Arsenal at home with such a squad has to be a draw at worst. Instead, we'll take a peek at Newcastle, who welcome Saints back -- that side will be keen to remind EPL what they've missed and no player there will want to prove it more than Adam Armstrong, on the back of a massive 24 goal and 13 assist season.

With that:

100 units at Sportsbet on Southampton to WIN vs Newcastle @8.70. Other odds: 8.20. Units advantage: 50

Running advantage after 2 bets: +57 (+50)
All-time cumulative: +98,481
Running units after 1 bets (0W|1L): -100

[KTChampions]

Couldn't let an opening day for the Premier League go by without a quick one in. Wolves are the most tempting today at 18/1 but Arsenal at home with such a squad has to be a draw at worst. Instead, we'll take a peek at Newcastle, who welcome Saints back -- that side will be keen to remind EPL what they've missed and no player there will want to prove it more than Adam Armstrong, on the back of a massive 24 goal and 13 assist season.

With that:

100 units at Sportsbet on Southampton to WIN vs Newcastle @8.70. Other odds: 8.20. Units advantage: 50

Running advantage after 2 bets: +57 (+50)
All-time cumulative: +98,481
Running units after 1 bets (0W|1L): -100

Hey! Glad to see this thread in action  
To be honest, I expected that you would add a Liverpool win (with or without a handicap) to increase the odds. Do you plan to be a little less prejudiced towards your favorite team this season?
I'm glad that Liverpool won with the score I predicted in the EPL poll.

[buwaytress]

Hey! Glad to see this thread in action  
To be honest, I expected that you would add a Liverpool win (with or without a handicap) to increase the odds. Do you plan to be a little less prejudiced towards your favorite team this season?
I'm glad that Liverpool won with the score I predicted in the EPL poll.

Thank you for your custom I would have, of course, but I only arrived home shortly after the Liverpool game, and so missed it. To be fair on myself, it was a great pick. Newcastle played with 10 men most of the game, they only had just the 1 shot (that won them all the points), and Southampton's Armstrong had so many chances he didn't expect. But it wasn't to be.

Re less prejudiced, I do, this season. As in, fewer Liverpool add ons (they were never really value bets 80% of Klopp era) but I'll always be betting on them as underdogs, I still feel bookies unfairly rate them against the royalty (City, Real, etc.). Expect roughly 100 bets this season too. I no longer have the time to study things daily, but I'll stick to oversized odds as the game was on Saturday

Next bet is actually in 3 days' time, Rapid Wien play away at one of the best teams in Portugal, but they showed some class in beating Trabzsonpor in both legs of the 3rd Quropa qualifying, while Braga barely scraped past Servette. So I feel like this should have been an equal footing odds, not the 5/1 bookies have on Wien (Sportsbet boosted gets you 55/10!

Let's trust in Spurs (17/10 vs a newly-promoted team, isn't that good value?) who now has Son + Solanke!

100 units at Sportsbet on Spurs and Rapid Wien to WIN @9.51. Other odds: 9.18
Units advantage: 33

Running advantage after 3 bets: +90 (+33)
All-time cumulative: +98,514
Running units after 2 bets (0W|2L): -200

[buwaytress]

That's what you get for putting your trust in Spurs, I suppose. They really ought to have won that game. Anyway, it's not something I do often (or do I?) but I'm taking out another bet anyway on the Austrians for their qualification.

100 units at Sportsbet on Rapid Wien to WIN vs Braga @5.60. Other odds: 5.1. Units advantage: 50

Running advantage after 4 bets: +140 (+50)
All-time cumulative: +98,564
Running units after 3 bets (0W|3L): -300

[buwaytress]

The question about PSG is almost existential with me. Even with Neymar, even with Messi, and even with Mbappe, they were always a good team to bet against. And tonight, without any of these guys, is 10/1 for a Montpellier win worth it in Paris? I say yes, always.

100 units at Sportsbet on Montpellier to WIN vs PSG @10.00. Other odds: 9.70. Units advantage: 30

Running advantage after 5 bets: +170 (+30)
All-time cumulative: +98,594
Running units after 4 bets (0W|4L): -400

[KTChampions]

The question about PSG is almost existential with me. Even with Neymar, even with Messi, and even with Mbappe, they were always a good team to bet against. And tonight, without any of these guys, is 10/1 for a Montpellier win worth it in Paris? I say yes, always.

100 units at Sportsbet on Montpellier to WIN vs PSG @10.00. Other odds: 9.70. Units advantage: 30

Running advantage after 5 bets: +170 (+30)
All-time cumulative: +98,594
Running units after 4 bets (0W|4L): -400

I'm biased, but Neymar + Messi was the anchor that gave any underdog a chance against PSG. What I like about the Montpellier bet is that PSG have won 10 of their last 10 games. Such streaks inevitably end. I hope the streak ends with a win for Montpellier, not a draw.
Good betting pace! The more bets, the more even the result.

[buwaytress]

I'm biased, but Neymar + Messi was the anchor that gave any underdog a chance against PSG. What I like about the Montpellier bet is that PSG have won 10 of their last 10 games. Such streaks inevitably end. I hope the streak ends with a win for Montpellier, not a draw.
Good betting pace! The more bets, the more even the result.

Sadly, I did not see this 6-0 thrashing coming. I guess now without the superstars, the team is free to experiment and they did. I'm like you regarding streaks. I seek an end to them And yes, I will certainly do my best to up the tempo from last season. At least, if I am too busy, then I will make use of free days to add more picks. The sample size of past seasons when small really didn't help with results!

Anyway, today I am torn between Everton, who actually have value odds against Spurs away, and Villa at home, who know how to pick apart Arsenal. Spurs and Arsenal both looked weaker than usual in the opening game. Spurs were threatening without end product, Arsenal were lost at sea against Wolves but has the better finishers.

I decided to go with Villa in the end, mainly because they will be more fired up than Everton.

So 100 units at Sportsbet on Villa to WIN vs Arsenal @4.85. Other odds: 4.50. Units advantage: 35

Running advantage after 6 bets: +205 (+35)
All-time cumulative: +98,629
Running units after 5 bets (0W|5L): -500

[buwaytress]

Yeah, well. It wasn't to be. Watkins actually spurned two really good chances in the first half. On another day, it would have been 2-nil to the good at HT, and then I'd be taking a bet on Arsenal to hedge.

If it's any consolation, not a single upset (over 4/1 anyway) has happened over the entire weekend, so any other pick would have lost. Which brings us to today. La Liga has Real Madrid to lose at over 18/1, but I'll hold off for a while there. Instead, Girona are backs to the wall against Atleti, and at 55/10 pre-boost, I like my chances here better. Slap on Liverpool, why don't we?

100 units at Sportsbet on Liverpool and Girona to WIN @6.77. Other odds: 6.55. Units advantage: 22

Running advantage after 7 bets: +227 (+22)
All-time cumulative: +98,651
Running units after 6 bets (0W|6L): -600

[buwaytress]

Never let it be said that a loss puts me off. Girona are awful, and they are not turning a corner. But one of my favourite teams (Celta) plays tonight as the underdog and their faithful striker Aspas has been off to a great start, scoring in each game so far, he should help tonight. But if that's not enough, let's pack it in with a Juventus win!

100 units at Sportsbet on Celta Vigo and Juventus to WIN @7.36. Other odds: 6.95. Units advantage: 41

Running advantage after 8 bets: +268 (+41)
All-time cumulative: +98,692
Running units after 7 bets (0W|7L): -700

[buwaytress]

Celta were leading twice, for the majority of the match, somehow found a way to go down 3-2, but when they equalised, honestly, it looked like only a matter of time before they'd push for the winning goal. Save, after save, after save, then in 8th min injury time, after all that huffing and puffing, gave away a penalty.

Still, undaunted, we push forward again and again for our maiden win of the season. And that lies with Galatasaray, who will pray lightning doesn't hit twice in Istanbul. They lost, so must now win to qualify to UCL. Can they? Or will overeagerness allow Young Boys to pounce?

100 units at Sportsbet on YB to WIN vs Gala @8.70. Other odds: 8.30. Units advantage: 40

Running advantage after 9 bets: +308 (+40)
All-time cumulative: +98,732
Running units after 8 bets (0W|8L): -800

[arallmuus]

100 units at Sportsbet on YB to WIN vs Gala @8.70. Other odds: 8.30. Units advantage: 40

Running advantage after 9 bets: +308 (+40)
All-time cumulative: +98,732
Running units after 8 bets (0W|8L): -800

Hey hey hey, finally you get your first win of the season !

So its literally a break even from all the previous bet, pretty decent start over. I thought you would win the previous bet yesterday but it seems your luck was drawing in real close and you finally win it today 

I can smell it, this season is going to be much better than last season 

[buwaytress]

Hey hey hey, finally you get your first win of the season !

So its literally a break even from all the previous bet, pretty decent start over. I thought you would win the previous bet yesterday but it seems your luck was drawing in real close and you finally win it today 

I can smell it, this season is going to be much better than last season 

Haha yeah, actually still a little bit in the arrears, but it's a nice feeling all the same. Look back on the season picks though and they have actually been quite close. Villa could have won it easily with luckier finishing, the same as the Saints game where they lost to the only shot Newcastle had. Even Villareal should have lost on another day.

But I'll take the wins any day, and tonight we dip into a similar situation -- Pyunik are the underdogs and play away after a first-leg victory. Same kind of hopes here, where the home team should try for a winner and end up opening spaces. Odds aren't so good as last night, so let's throw in Chelsea to make up the numbers haha.

100 units at Sportsbet on Pyunik and Chelsea to WIN @8.79. Other odds: 8.55. Units advantage: 34

Running advantage after 10 bets: +342 (+34)
All-time cumulative: +98,776
Running units after 9 bets (1W|8L): -30 (+770)

[buwaytress]

That was horrible. Both sides of the legs lost, so I picked the wrong underdog -- in fact, many underdogs won in Europa/Conference, but I wouldn't have been able to pick the value, as most were around 4/1 or 5/1 odds. Such is the game.

This weekend's EPL stinks. Hammers are barely 7/1 to beat City when they've not really done much to suggest they'll win, while elsewhere in Europe, we've only got Barca and Bayern who look somewhat interesting to lose. But we'll decide closer to the date.

Instead, Brighton to beat Arsenal looks much better value at better odds than West Ham at 86/10 on Sportsbet (most books are just above 7/10. Especially if Gunners haven't to me really won their last games convincingly. Pair it with Liverpool to just about make it past United (I have to, really) and we've got a cracker of a bet.

100 units on Brighton and Liverpool to WIN @16.00. Other odds: 14.51. Units advantage: 149

Running advantage after 11 bets: +491 (+149)
All-time cumulative: +98,925
Running units after 10 bets (1W|9L): -130 (-100)

[buwaytress]

Late post minutes before kickoff but I forgot to replace the last bet which failed before Liverpool could take on United. Odds went up a little bit for them, so it "makes sense" to resume adding them on another parlay, this time, shall we try and see if Freiburg could remind Bundesliga they were once Champions League worthies? Or shall we try to do it with Betis taking 3 points off Madrid? What about both? Haha.

100 units at Sportsbet on Freiburg and Liverpool to WIN @22.08. Other odds: 21.50. Units advantage: 58

100 units at Sportsbet on Liverpool and Betis to WIN @23.04. Other odds: 22.20. Units advantage: 84

Running advantage after 13 bets: +633 (58+84= +142)
All-time cumulative: +99,067
Running units after 11 bets (1W|10L): -230 (-100)

[KTChampions]

Late post minutes before kickoff but I forgot to replace the last bet which failed before Liverpool could take on United. Odds went up a little bit for them, so it "makes sense" to resume adding them on another parlay, this time, shall we try and see if Freiburg could remind Bundesliga they were once Champions League worthies? Or shall we try to do it with Betis taking 3 points off Madrid? What about both? Haha.

100 units at Sportsbet on Freiburg and Liverpool to WIN @22.08. Other odds: 21.50. Units advantage: 58

100 units at Sportsbet on Liverpool and Betis to WIN @23.04. Other odds: 22.20. Units advantage: 84

Running advantage after 13 bets: +633 (58+84= +142)
All-time cumulative: +99,067
Running units after 11 bets (1W|10L): -230 (-100)

Liverpool's victory was obvious, as I wrote, I placed a bet on Liverpool's victory with a handicap of -1, but unfortunately other outcomes in the multi-bet (damn Arsenal) ruined it.
As for Real - Betis, I decided to wait until the game starts and if the events do not go in Real's favor, I will place a bet, I do not believe that they will lose points so often.
Congratulations on your first victory!

[buwaytress]

Liverpool's victory was obvious, as I wrote, I placed a bet on Liverpool's victory with a handicap of -1, but unfortunately other outcomes in the multi-bet (damn Arsenal) ruined it.
As for Real - Betis, I decided to wait until the game starts and if the events do not go in Real's favor, I will place a bet, I do not believe that they will lose points so often.
Congratulations on your first victory!

It wasn't obvious to me. United felt like it would be the first test of the season (with respect to Ipswich and Brentford) and I actually thought Ugarte would start, and Klopp only won at OT twice in 10 tries, so I would have been in fact happier if odds were closer to 25/10 instead of just below 2/1. Did not expect us to blow them out of the water!

Betis held on for a very long time, and in fact after 60 minutes decided, let's try and win this! And henceforth Real finally punctured them via Mbappe.

It's internationals now, and this usually means a tougher time for me to pick value bets, but let's go for an early one for now. Might add this on if I smell something sweet closer to the matches

I've always been a big fan of Central Asian and Caucasus teams, and I speak often about their rise over the last few years, coinciding with the decline of Scandinavian powers so there are two Nations League ties that fit this narrative. Kazakhstan vs Norway is one, you have Haaland determined to make sure his country doesn't miss out but he has a comparatively poor record internationally (this doesn't intend to look down on him, he is a robot that required sufficient machinery that Norway doesn't have). Azerbaijan vs Sweden is the other. Sportsbet odds always looks good but make things even better. I'll opt to use it on Azer.

100 units at Sportsbet on Azerbaijan to WIN vs Sweden @6.56. Other odds: 6.10

100 units at Sportsbet on Kazakhstan to WIN vs Norway @6.00. Other odds: 5.80

Total units advantage: 66

Running advantage after 15 bets: +699 (+66)
All-time cumulative: +99,133
Running units after 13 bets (1W|13L): -430 (-200)

[buwaytress]

Well, now I feel absolutely cheated. Took Kazakhstan at 6/1 and today they're 10/1 if you use a boost at Sportsbet.io. Azerbaijan yesterday were really unlucky. Actually matched Sweden in the first half, got but missed a penalty, and then Isak's late charge won the game. I won't double down on Kazakhstan (it's just started anyway), unfortunately, instead, we look at a supreme Belgium upset against... not-so-terrible Israel.

It's a scary prospect, but after watching Spain last night, maybe this could be the first upset of Nations League?

Italy are also value for me, by the way. Mbappe hasn't been doing particularly well by his standards and it feels like they can't figure out how to win if he can't score, so let's take both bets, both at Sportsbet.

100 units on Italy to WIN vs France @5.70. Other odds: 5.50
100 units on Israel to WIN vs Belgium @12.77. Other odds: 11.50

Total units advantage: 147

Running advantage after 17 bets: +846 (+147)
All-time cumulative: +99,280
Running units after 14 bets (1W|14L): -530 (-100)

[buwaytress]

Kazakhstan held Norway! But bet was lost of course, to think of all the handicap bets this thread would have won for all the draws, eh? We did have Italy surprise France, so we at least covered the 4 past games and then some.

I'm going rather drab today. Netherlands makes me itch, but Hungary prowess in the last big tournament lingers with me, while Germany's opposite showing also stays. So why not an upset at home?

100 units at Sportsbet on Hungary to WIN vs Germany @10.40. Other odds: 9.90. Units advantage: +50

Running advantage after 18 bets: +896 (+50)
All-time cumulative: +99,330
Running units after 17 bets (2W|15L): -260 (+270)

[buwaytress]

I couldn't have been more wrong with an upset. Germany were in the mood, home crowd were baying, and poor old Dominik was not bad but his teammates were some of the most sluggish players I've seen in recent European football.

I keep faith with the Azeri tonight, to pick off what should be a stern but doable opponent in Slovakia. Boosted gives you about 75/10 but I'll instead pack the acca with Portugal (v Scotland) and Sweden (v Estonia).

100 units at Sportsbet on Azerbaijan, Portugal and Sweden to WIN @10.26. Other odds: 10.00
Units advantage: 26

Running advantage after 19 bets: +922 (+26)
All-time cumulative: +99,356
Running units after 18 bets (2W|16L): -360 (-100)