Odds, units advantage | Sportsbook

Finally. A first profit since lockdown ended. And we're also nicely set up for the 2nd leg of yesterday's parlay with that thumping, if slightly nervy, Leipzig finish.

Just a simple parlay on Israeli and Danish leagues today.

Game 1: Hapoel Tel Aviv FC-Beitar Jerusalem FC. Tel Aviv WIN @2.95. SB odds: 2.90
Game 2: Broendby IF-Sonderjyske. Broendby WIN @1.72. SB odds: 1.70
100 units parlay at Betcoin @5.074. SB parlay: 4.93

Odds advantage: 2.92%
Units advantage: 14.4

Running advantage after 305 bets: +7,146.62 (+14.4)
All-time cumulative: +29,145.84
Running units after 303 bets (50W|253L): +11,027.75 (+300 units)

So nice to get 2 wins in a row. Maybe if Bremen do us a favour tonight, we make it 3 in a row? But with so many delicious selections available tonight, I'm tempted to make this a possible 4 wins in 3 days -- maybe my hot streak needs riding?

Ararat Armenia brings me good memories, Porto brings me bad ones, but let's do very risky bets on them and the Israeli playoff underdog:

Game 1: Famalicao vs Porto. Porto WIN @1.45. SB odds: 1.45
Game 2: Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Maccabi Haifa FC. Haifa WIN @4.5. SB odds: 4.46
Game 3: Ararat Armenia vs Lori. Ararat WIN @1.57 SB odds: 1.55
100 units parlay at Betcoin @10.297. SB parlay: 10.023

Odds advantage: 2.73%
Units advantage: 27.4

Running advantage after 306 bets: +7,174.02 (+27.4)
All-time cumulative: +29,173.24
Running units after 304 bets (51W|253L): +11,435.15 (+407.4 units)

Quote from: buwaytress on June 03, 2020, 02:17:15 PM

Well, it seems you managed to hit the ground running after this corona restart. Good for you, hopefully your streak will continue.

I am betting mostly on both to score markets at the moment and it isn't going so well. Actually, I find myself trusting my esports bets much more than football ones. Strange new world

From football I have both to score on Werder, Hapoel and Macabi games, but that is all for beer money. My main ticket has only werder both to score + some esports.

Quote from: Trofo on June 03, 2020, 03:08:30 PM

From football I have both to score on Werder, Hapoel and Macabi games, but that is all for beer money. My main ticket has only werder both to score + some esports.

Only to fall flat on my face last night. Parlay lost all 3 legs and Bremen went down rather limply. Still, happy to be back in action and doing "well" even on teams I'm not too familiar wth!

I never got used to the strange new world of e-sports. A couple of bets here and there, nothing serious, even tried going to watch a stream but just got bored my the whole thing (and slightly nauseous heh, seems my Doom-induced motion sickness hasn't gone away after all these years).

Quote from: Trofo on June 03, 2020, 03:08:30 PM

Actually, I find myself trusting my esports bets much more than football ones. Strange new world

~snipped~

Maybe you just found your new calling here in the world of gambling. Tongue

Last month, I joined rand's Esports VIP group and the result was kinda meh (atleast for me) and I just realized that Esports is not for me (atleast in this season).

Quote from: buwaytress on June 04, 2020, 06:27:00 AM

Looking forward to your winning picks again (I missed the last won bets from you) especially now that I got some extra money from the MM winnings. Cheesy

Still envious of your win JanpriX, imagine if you parlayed 10 of those wins eh?

My rather aimless pick of the day involves Braga and Gladbach, but also hopeful that we don't get a bore draw from 2. Bundesliga!

Game 1: VfL Bochum-FC ST Pauli. Bochum WIN @2.30. SB odds: 2.28
Game 2: SC Freiburg-Borussia Monchengladbach. Gladbach WIN @1.78. SB odds: 1.77
Game 3: CD Santa Clara-Sporting Braga. Braga WIN @1.46. SB odds: 1.44
100 units parlay at Betcoin @5.977. SB parlay: 5.811

Odds advantage: 2.86%
Units advantage: 16.6

Running advantage after 307 bets: +7,190.62 (+16.6)
All-time cumulative: +29,189.84
Running units after 306 bets (51W|255L): +11,235.15 (-200 units)

Should have gone for all the underdogs last night, as the one I did back won. Slim wins still, and Gladbach taught me not to trust in them returning to form -- terrible after lockdown, them!

Game 1: Leverkusen vs Bayern Munich. Leverkusen WIN @6.35. Betcoin odds: 6.18
Game 2: BVB vs Hertha Berlin. BVB WIN @1.40. Betcoin odds: 1.40
100 units parlay at Sportsbet @8.89. Betcoin parlay: 8.65
Bet ID: 5edb64aa753af9a6f641ea56

Odds advantage: 2.77%
Units advantage: 24

Running advantage after 308 bets: +7,214.62 (+24)
All-time cumulative: +29,213.84
Running units after 307 bets (51W|256L): +11,135.15 (-100 units)

Quote from: buwaytress on June 06, 2020, 09:46:51 AM

Watched the game yesterday and Gladbach actually played very good in first half. Later they conceded a goal from the set piece and got a stupid red card.

Like your tips for today but I am going a bit more secure, leverkusen not to lose and both to score. Dortmund also both to score, Hertha is good after restart.

Quote from: Trofo on June 06, 2020, 10:24:22 AM

We were off to a good start but Bayern being Bayern didn't take too long to equalise and then used the last 5 minuts of the first half to smash two goals in.

30 mins left so it's all over I would say. Most we could hope for is a draw but then Bayern are about to switch gears now to wrap this up.

So I'm forced to go for a hedging bet now, in CASE BVB loses haha, a bit silly to do so in a rush but:

100 units at Betcoin on Hertha Berlin to WIN vs BVB @7.36. SB odds: 7.12

Odds advantage: 3.66%
Units advantage: 24

Running advantage after 309 bets: +7,238.62 (+24)
All-time cumulative: +29,237.84
Running units after 308 bets (51W|257L): +11,035.15 (-100 units)

Well. Emre Can, you German weirdo in midfield. I always thought you were the reason BVB pulled through in the last 2 games, fit or unfit, and this time you right gone and won the game for them. Ah well.

Schalke's lost me plenty this season, while Koln has won me some. Let's hope these tigers don't change skin.

Game 1: Union Berlin vs Schalke 04. Berlion WIN @2.54. SB odds: 2.52
Game 2: Augsburg vs Koln. Koln WIN @2.47. SB odds: 2.44
100 units parlay at Betcoin @6.27. SB parlay: 6.15

Odds advantage: 1.95%
Units advantage: 12

Running advantage after 310 bets: +7,250.62 (+12)
All-time cumulative: +29,249.84
Running units after 309 bets (51W|258L): +10,935.15 (-100 units)

Draws. The bane of my betting, as I never bet on draws. Brain simply cannot accept that people will settle for it so wants a full points outcome.

Let's do another Israel league upset, and pair it with a home Hamburg win.

Game 1: Hamburger SV-Holstein Kiel. Hamburg WIN @1.64. SB odds: 1.60
Game 2: Beitar Jerusalem FC-Maccabi Tel Aviv. Jerusalem WIN @5.67. SB odds: 5.56
100 units parlay at Betcoin @9.30. SB parlay: 8.89

Odds advantage: 4.61%
Units advantage: 41

Running advantage after 311 bets: +7,291.62 (+41)
All-time cumulative: +29,290.84
Running units after 310 bets (51W|259L): +10,835.15 (-100 units)

I said it yesterday and it happened again. Both legs drew. Jerusalem I wasn't so upset about, they were the significant underdogs so a draw was a big upset but Hamburg to allow that kind of bombardment in the closing minutes? They're killing their return to the top tier of Bundesliga if they continue like this.

Anyway, let's keep it simple with an upset over a Kai Havert-less Leverkusen. I bet on them as the underdog in the last match but the coach showed just how weird he gets when the team he wants isn't available, so let's see if he helps his team out of Pokal too.

100 units at Sportsbet on Saarbrucken to WIN vs Leverkusen @15.98. Betcoin odds: 15.45
Bet ID: 5edf2f2e28479493e2def6de

Odds advantage: 3.43%
Units advantage: 53

Running advantage after 312 bets: +7,344.62 (+53)
All-time cumulative: +29,343.84
Running units after 311 bets (51W|260L): +10,735.15 (-100 units)

It was an idiot bet after all, but to be fair, even at 0-2 down, Saarbrucken weren't completely hopeless. Already made history, nothing to lose, and everything to gain, I'd take that bet again any day. Odds should have been 25/1 at least, though!

Being an idiot, I will now bet on the other semi on Frankfurt, whom I know are horrendous away but hey, they did give Munich a scare didn't they?

100 units at Sportsbet on Eintracht Frankfurt to WIN vs Bayern Munich @21.33. Betcoin odds: 19.94
Bet ID: 5ee0d287a2dd3854360cd38e

Odds advantage: 6.97%
Units advantage: 139

Running advantage after 313 bets: +7,483.62 (+139)
All-time cumulative: +29,482.84
Running units after 312 bets (51W|261L): +10,635.15 (-100 units)

Frankfurt were the better team in a brief period after the restart and had they held on for a bit more after they equalised, this could have worn down Bayern. As it was, it's another Bayern final. We'll hope Havert's recovered by then!

I'm going to go really boring tonight and do home wins to celebrate La Liga's return!

Game 1: Tondela-CD Aves. Tondela WIN @1.80. SB odds: 1.78
Game 2: FC Sevilla-Real Betis Balompie. Sevilla WIN @1.90. SB odds: 1.87
Game 3: FC Ararat-Armenia-FC Ararat Yerevan. Armenia WIN@1.35. SB odds: 1.34
100 units parlay at Betcoin @4.61. SB parlay: 4.46

Odds advantage: 3.36%
Units advantage: 15

Awesome parlay boost on Sportsbet: Sevilla/Real/Barca/Sociedad to win at 6.00. Betcoin parlay: 5.25

Odds advantage: 14.29%
Units advantage: 75

Total units advantage: 90

Running advantage after 315 bets: +7,573.62 (+90)
All-time cumulative: +29,572.84
Running units after 313 bets (51W|262L): +10,535.15 (-100 units)

Lovely win, and all were quite comfortable too. Home "advantage" looked good for us, but let's switch back to the underdog today. Leipzig will lose Werner to Chelsea but they'll want to max him out and get UCL qualification, but you know what? I like Hoffenheim's chances against a distracted Werner =p

But since we like piling on the risk, Ronaldo to score first and give Juve the win!

Game 1: Hoffenheim-RB Leipzig. Hoffenheim WIN @6.46. SB odds: 6.40
Game 2: Juventus Turin-AC Milan. Juve WIN @1.56. SB odds: 1.53
100 units parlay at Betcoin @10.08. SB parlay: 9.86

Odds advantage: 2.23%
Units advantage: 22

Ronaldo to score first at SB @4.5. Betcoin odds: 3.23
Bet ID: 5ee1db284d04dde38c2a16cd

Odds advantage: 39.3%
Units advantage: 127

Total units advantage: 149

Running advantage after 317 bets: +7,722.62 (+149)
All-time cumulative: +29,721.84
Running units after 314 bets (52W|262L): +10,896.15 (+361 units)

Disastrous. Didn't watch the matches, had a lazy Friday catching up with stuff but 0-0 Juventus? Couldn't save me even if Hoffenheim won!

Bayern ought to win tonight to ensure they are 1 game away from winning the title, so I'll parlay that with a couple of selections later (maybe) but for now, it's Inter's boys to win, parlayed with Werder Bremen taking a step closer to relegation safety.

Game 1: Paderborn vs Bremen. Bremen WIN @2.24. SB odds: 2.22
Game 2: Napoli vs Inter Milan. Inter WIN @2.53. SB odds: 2.50
100 units parlay at Betcoin @5.67. SB parlay: 5.55

Odds advantage: 2.16%
Units advantage: 12

Running advantage after 318 bets: +7,734.62 (+12)
All-time cumulative: +29,733.84
Running units after 316 bets (52W|264L): +10,696.15 (-200 units)

Well, it's not like Inter didn't do it right, 17 shots to 6 but Napoli do what Italians are capable of. Wear out and frustrate, now they're through to the final. On the other hand, Barca won easy so we're ALMOST there on our 6/1 parlay, just need Real and Sociedad not to f it up.

It's ok, let's do another home parlay:

Game 1: Rapid Wein vs Wolfsberg. Wein WIN @2.19. SB odds: 2.16
Game 2: Salzburg vs LASK. Salzburg WIN @1.47. SB odds: 1.46
Game 3: Lausanne vs Basel. Basel WIN @1.86. SB odds: 1.86
100 units parlay at Betcoin @5.99. SB parlay: 5.86

Odds advantage: 2.21%
Units advantage: 13

Running advantage after 319 bets: +7,747.62 (+13)
All-time cumulative: +29,746.84
Running units after 317 bets (52W|265L): +10,596.15 (-100 units)

Heartbreak. Basel actually went 2-0 up, and then contrived to give away 2 goals in less than 2 minutes, before heading to extra time to finally win it. We bet on FT results, though so lost the parlay.

And then Sociedad also failed to win after giving away a penalty, so we lost both remaining parlays on the last leg. Very disappointing!

A single today on our boys Granada. 100 units at Betcoin @4.32. SB odds: 4.28

Odds advantage: 0.9%
Units advantage: 4

Running advantage after 320 bets: +7,747.62 (+4)
All-time cumulative: +29,746.84
Running units after 319 bets (52W|267L): +10,396.15 (-200 units)

Oh Granada. You deceived me. Leading 1-0, looked like they rediscovered their old selves. And then with 6 minutes to go, they even had to fight back in the 90th with Soldado's goal just snatching a point back.

Anyway. Backing Paderborn to go down miserably again, while I've got the hots for Espanyol.

Game 1: Union Berlin vs Paderborn. Berlin WIN @1.69. SB odds: 1.67
Game 2: Getafe vs Espanyol. Espanyol WIN @4.33. SB odds: 4.27
100 units parlay at Betcoin @7.32. Sportsbet parlay: 7.13

Odds advantage: 2.66%
Units advantage: 19

Running advantage after 321 bets: +7,766.62 (+19)
All-time cumulative: +29,765.84
Running units after 320 bets (52W|268L): +10,296.15 (-100 units)

It was going pretty well until the underserved red card. Was sure the review would overturn it but I guess you gotta take the bad luck with it. Still, 0-0 showed this should have been a high value bet!

Tonight we celebrate the return of EPL and I'm going for a huge Arsenal upset so that we can enjoy the league celebrations at Goodison park =D

Game 1: Borussia Dortmund-1. Fsv Mainz 05. BVB WIN @1.35. SB odds: same
Game 2: Manchester City-Arsenal FC. Arsenal WIN @8.40. SB odds: same
100 units parlay at Betcoin @11.34

No odds advantage.

Running advantage after 322 bets: +7,766.62 (+0)
All-time cumulative: +29,765.84
Running units after 321 bets (52W|269L): +10,196.15 (-100 units)