Odds, units advantage | Sportsbook | +97043 units

[buwaytress]

Newcastle toiled but could only draw, and then got knocked out on penalties. Shame. So we got the Salzburg leg done, now Liverpool just need to win tomorrow and then we got another cracker away at Leeds. Avoided all Europe competition last two nights, here, good thing as my bets didn't do too well but tonight's Friday matchups look ripe. Suspect away upsets in La Liga and Bundesliga but we'll pick BVB to lose at home.

100 units at Sportsbet on Hoffenheim to WIN vs BVB @7.16. Other odds: 6.90
Units advantage: 26

Running advantage after 21 bets: +3315 (+26)
All-time cumulative: +71,693
Running units after 19 bets (3W|16L): +1,877 (-100)

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[buwaytress]

BVB were ran ragged, weren't they? And then up pops Haaland in injury time to smash them up in front, and we lost the bet. But today, our remaining long parlay will play its second leg before the international break, and I'm wondering if there's a Palace upset today over flying West Ham? So irresistible to twin that with a Liverpool victory against the Blues.

100 units at Sportsbet on Liverpool and Crystal Palace to WIN @16.73. Other odds: 15.90
Units advantage: 83

And I know I've been profiting from Arsenal, but can City give us more winnings?
100 units at Fairlay on Arsenal to WIN vs City @13.01. Other odds: 11.50
Units advantage: 151

Running advantage after 23 bets: +3549 (+83+151)
All-time cumulative: +71,927
Running units after 20 bets (3W|17L): +1,777 (-100)

[buwaytress]

Ah Palace, they almost did it, even if the draw was the most they deserved. And same can be said for Liverpool in all honesty, for not being able to crack the bus. No need to say much about Arsenal. Shot themselves well dead with the red card.

Today, a simple promo offer at Stake, as if Watford score first, you get paid out regardless. So, easy upset pick for me today. Odds can be 8/1 too but I made too early a pick haha.

100 units at Stake on Watford to win vs Spurs @7.20. Other odds: 8.00
Bet ID: sport:14094519
Units advantage: -80

Running advantage after 24 bets: +3469 (-80)
All-time cumulative: +71,847
Running units after 23 bets (3W|20L): +1,477 (-300)

[buwaytress]

Spurs. 1-0 three times in a row. If I only went with my gut for that correct score instead of expecting Sarr to somehow turn up and pop a goal in. Not to mention the disappointment of Wolves yesterday. Hah.

Shall we do random but semi-form-educated picks with SB's 5-leg insured boosted acca?
100 units at Sportsbet on Fluminense, Fortaleza, R Zaragoza, Anyang and Vozdovak to WIN @22.00. Other odds: 20.50

Units advantage: 150

Running advantage after 25 bets: +3619 (+150)
All-time cumulative: +71,997
Running units after 24 bets (3W|21L): +1,377 (-100)

[buwaytress]

So we head into the international break and the US Open beckons. Nishikori went a little farther than expected in Washington but I'm wondering if he could be one of the early exits this ATP? He withdrew 3 weeks ago in Toronto, maybe it's still too soon for him?

100 units at Sportsbet on Caruso to WIN vs Nishikori @7.14. Other odds: 6.80
Units advantage: 34

Running advantage after 26 bets: +3653 (+34)
All-time cumulative: +72,031
Running units after 25 bets (3W|22L): +1,277 (-100)

[Trofo]

So we head into the international break and the US Open beckons. Nishikori went a little farther than expected in Washington but I'm wondering if he could be one of the early exits this ATP? He withdrew 3 weeks ago in Toronto, maybe it's still too soon for him?

Free pro tennis tip: If you are gunning for upsets against players who could be trailing an injury, it pays to bet on sites that count forfeits as lost match. That is very unfair way to count them but I used to try and profit from situations like that after getting burned by the rule. One of the sites I know had that rule is wbet7. Did not use them in the last half of year but I believe they still have same policy. If player forfeits in the match where at least 1 game has been played that result is counted as regular win/loss.

[buwaytress]

Nope, tennis not for me. Tricky qualifiers tonight and I wonder if Scotland is way underestimated (yes, yes, Danes are awesome)?

100 units at Sportsbet on Scotland to WIN vs Denmark @10.02. Other odds: 9.45
Units advantage: 57

Running advantage after 27 bets: +3710 (+57)
All-time cumulative: +72,088
Running units after 26 bets (3W|23L): +1,177 (-100)

Free pro tennis tip: If you are gunning for upsets against players who could be trailing an injury, it pays to bet on sites that count forfeits as lost match. That is very unfair way to count them but I used to try and profit from situations like that after getting burned by the rule. One of the sites I know had that rule is wbet7. Did not use them in the last half of year but I believe they still have same policy. If player forfeits in the match where at least 1 game has been played that result is counted as regular win/loss.

Thank you! I assume others just void the match then? Didn't work out with Nishikori, he was dominant throughout, and for a mistake should have won it in straight sets.

[buwaytress]

Whoops. Terrible loss, and no chance they'd ever win. Bosnia or Kazakh handicap yesterday would have been just as valuable, as they ended up drawing with France and Ukraine, respectively.

Syria, who've never qualified before, but if I recall back on the last WC, they were on the brink of qualifying, and won us some good games, play fanciful Iran. Total outsiders, but I'm going to back them.

Watch this thread, I'll update post later to add in one or two more.

100 units at Sportsbet on Syria to WIN vs Iran @18.50. Other odds: 17.20
Units advantage: 130

Running advantage after 28 bets: +3840 (+130)
All-time cumulative: +72,218
Running units after 27 bets (3W|24L): +1,077 (-100)

[Trofo]

Thank you! I assume others just void the match then? Didn't work out with Nishikori, he was dominant throughout, and for a mistake should have won it in straight sets.

Rule of thumb is that most of the bets get void but there is some illogical stuff. Let's say player forfeits the match in the 5th set in Grand Slam:
*All bets for sets 1-4 will be paid out. Ie. Number of games in 1.set
*Total games will be void even if you played over 31.5 and they already played 40+ games at the moment of forfeir
*Player gets at least one set will be graded though
*All mach lines and handicaps are voided even if it is clear that handicap had to pass or fail

I am on both to score today, I know I'll lose the ticket but odds around @2.1-2.3, for Kosovo, England and Romania games just look as too much value for me.

[buwaytress]

I am on both to score today, I know I'll lose the ticket but odds around @2.1-2.3, for Kosovo, England and Romania games just look as too much value for me.

Very tough results for the past 2 days. I missed almost all my upsets by them either drawing or losing by 1 goal. Not even good BTTS results for you. Not even my 2/3 leg accas are hitting.

Doing a really simple one today, most likely to contain 1 draw but maybe the African favourites will play properly.

100 units at Sportsbet on Ivory Coast, S Africa and Nigeria to WIN @5.00. Other odds: 4.70
Units advantage: 30

And we'll add another live matchup with S Africa again plus S American and Israeli games:
Bnnei Yaffo, S Africa, Defensa y Justicia @7.56. Other odds: 7.44
Bet ID: 6131d38212c7a7d9498844fb
Units advantage: 12

Running advantage after 30 bets: +3882 (+42)
All-time cumulative: +72,260
Running units after 28 bets (3W|25L): +977 (-100)

[Trofo]

I am on both to score today, I know I'll lose the ticket but odds around @2.1-2.3, for Kosovo, England and Romania games just look as too much value for me.

Very tough results for the past 2 days. I missed almost all my upsets by them either drawing or losing by 1 goal. Not even good BTTS results for you. Not even my 2/3 leg accas are hitting.

Doing a really simple one today, most likely to contain 1 draw but maybe the African favourites will play properly.

#HateInternationalGames
After every cycle my animosity just grows. It is mostly boring and then I am even losing all my bets. Not all teams, Belgium for one is very interesting to watch but most other teams are total bore fest.

Can't wait for league football. Thankfully we have US open at the moment.

[buwaytress]

Thanks South Africa, but then you're not alone in losing/drawing games everywhere in WC qualifications.

Many outrights to tempt me again today, but I'll put them later and edit post, as my fav bookie is not letting bets get placed. Technical difficulties, life happens.

For now, an unusual put on Stake's special on UFC matches. Double winnings if fight ends early, and bets returned if your pick loses by split decision. So that's a massive boost if you win outright, and if you lose but go the distance, money back. Nice, right?

100 units at Stake on Sergey Spival to WIN vs Tom Aspinall @3.20. Other odds: 2.95
Units advantage: 25
Bet ID sport:14760352

Running advantage after 31 bets: +3907 (+25)
All-time cumulative: +72,285
Running units after 30 bets (3W|27L): +777 (-200)

#HateInternationalGames
After every cycle my animosity just grows. It is mostly boring and then I am even losing all my bets. Not all teams, Belgium for one is very interesting to watch but most other teams are total bore fest.

Can't wait for league football. Thankfully we have US open at the moment.

I've lost everything so far, since Day 1 international. I'm not kidding. Singles, parlays, specials. Tennis I'm only doing slightly better, but I don't bet big there. League football please, to end my misery.

[buwaytress]

No luck on UFC, turned out to be a quick fight with the favourite Aspinall ending things with a flurry of punches, TKO in first round. Pretty gruesome to see, but I did make some quick ones on the other highlight, so no biggie.

Not going to play around much with WC qualifications, but here's a traditional upset single. Azerbaijan almost won it for us last time around, only to give in to Duffy in the end. Ronaldo can't always be scoring, can he?

100 units at Fairlay on Azerbaijan to WIN vs Portugal @19.2. Other odds: 17.25
Units advantage: 195

Running advantage after 32 bets: +4102 (+195)
All-time cumulative: +72,480
Running units after 31 bets (3W|28L): +677 (-100)

[buwaytress]

OK, I lied. One more attempt at today's WC qualifications, because it is a bumper issue, and I'll put all my picks on Asian and African zone matches. We still have Azerbaijan today to look forward to! Free insurance too, so let's do it!

100 units boosted, insured at Sportsbet on Tunisia, Algeria, Senegal, Saudi and UAE to WIN @23.85. Other odds: 22.25
Units advantage: 160

Running advantage after 33 bets: +4262 (+160)
All-time cumulative: +72,640
Running units after 31 bets (3W|28L): +677 (-+0)

[buwaytress]

So I head back into the mid-week battered and bruised, with just a little profit to show for the season so far. Could this be the season where I finally end up in loss on this thread?

So instead of taking a breather from football today, let's throw in a few more last-gasp upsets. I'll add this one today and possible a later one on Poland if we see a nice Super Boost;)

100 units at Sportsbet on Liechtenstein to WIN vs Armenia @24.1. Other odds: 22.50
Units advantage: +160

Running advantage after 34 bets: +4422 (+160)
All-time cumulative: +72,800
Running units after 33 bets (3W|30L): +477 (-200)

[buwaytress]

All these underdog draws are really like a slap in the face. No pain from losing because you backed the overwhelming favourites, but that hollow feeling of so-near-yet-so-far isn't exactly the best feeling in the world either ha!

Our final bets on World Cup qualification backs all the home teams in Conmebol. Let's see if the favourites don't disappoint (but expect a couple of draws).

100 units at Sportsbet on Paraguay, Uruguay, Argentina, Brazil, Colombia to WIN @7.88. Other odds: 7.79
Units advantage: 9

Running advantage after 35 bets: +4431 (+9)
All-time cumulative: +72,809
Running units after 34 bets (3W|31L): +377 (-100)

[buwaytress]

Funny thing is, right after I made the bet, Sportsbet offered a boosted special at 8.8 for the exact same picks ha ha. But what a way to say farewell to WC, yeah? And Conmebol to the rescue, solid wins for all the home teams to give us a bit more breathing room in the profits tally!

Didn't post it but also scored a nice one with 2 legs in a 5-leg acca thanks to those big wins.

We kick off Friday night with a mixed special. Malaysia, Japan, Championship, Ligue 1 and Superligaen boosted insured special.

100 units at Sportsbet on Sarawak Utd, Nagoya Grampus, Birmingham City, Lille and Midtylland to WIN @25.40. Other odds: 23.88
Units advantage: 152

Running advantage after 36 bets: +4583 (+152)
All-time cumulative: +72,961
Running units after 35 bets (4W|31L): +1065 (+688)

[buwaytress]

Sarawak and Lille didn't make it, and I know betting on the suspect champions of France, who've been on a clear path of collapse ever since winning Ligue 1. I should listen to my gut more often, and remind myself to back Nice this season instead.

Easy pick for me today, although the value isn't that great. Leicester a weird shadow of themselves at times but I wonder if they can do something about their offence. Vardy to continue being a thorn in City's side for sure.

100 units at Sportsbet on Leicester to WIN vs City @8.0. Other odds: 6.34
Units advantage: 166

Edit, updated 650 to 800 as a special is now available!

Running advantage after 37 bets: +4749 (+166)
All-time cumulative: +73,127
Running units after 36 bets (4W|32L): +965 (-100)

[buwaytress]

Would like to say it was closer than it looked, but it wasn't. City 8 shots on goal, Leicester mustered two, but the inevitable happened. Least it wasn't another free goalfest for Citeh.

Only one match today, and it's the one that will make me happy only if we win. Brazilians back in the team so I couldn't be more relieved.

Go big or go home, right? Note, I put down this bet too early, and it's probably the biggest I've put in this thread. Odds are much better now. Good value, I'm telling myself.

1000 units at Fairlay on Liverpool to WIN @1.65. Other odds: 1.78
Units advantage: -13

Running advantage after 38 bets: +4619 (-130)
All-time cumulative: +72,097
Running units after 37 bets (4W|33L): +865 (-100)

[buwaytress]

Liverpool, you came through! Elliott injury was tough, though, I'd have given up points, a draw, to take him back hale and healthy. Nevertheless, we celebrate a big win.
 
UCL action tonight and Sevilla play Salzburg at home and are marked as big favourites. Juventus are also suffering pain in Serie A but they should dispatch Malmo easily, right?

100 units at Sportsbet on Salzburg and Juventus to WIN @8.67. Other odds: 8.10
Units advantage: 57
 

Running advantage after 39 bets: +4676 (+57)
All-time cumulative: +72,154
Running units after 38 bets (5W|33L): +1,515 (+650)