Odds, units advantage | Sportsbook | +97043 units

[D-law]

Could it be that Manchester City will finally loss against Brentford Boss ?
I followed your tips for Leicester City to triumph but they couldn't get a complete come back.
The odds are tempting .

Also for Southampton to win over Tottenham at home.
What's you view about this?
@buwaytress.

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[buwaytress]

^ Just a word of caution. This isn't at all a tipster thread, so I don't really provide tips on who to bet, just which bets to me seem to have really good value. Saints is only below 4/1, Spurs aren't guaranteed a win but odds not nice enough for me.

I'm doing a nice 5-leg acca today, boosted and insured at Sportsbet.
100 units on Liverpool (HT), West Ham, Spurs, Palace, Blackburn Rovers @22.81. Other odds: 21.45
Units advantage: 136

Running advantage after 93 bets: +10808 (+136)
All-time cumulative: +78,156
Running units after 92 bets (11W|81L): +2221 (-300)

[Trofo]

Liverpool (HT)

Seems like a value bet which I plan to use in the future. Did not pass today but Liverpool had great chances in the first half. Seems to me they start good and then problems get bigger and bigger if they are unable to score since opponent gets to defend deeply and that leaves little space for Salah and Mane.

[buwaytress]

Bummer on everything, even if United win tonight, I'll lose the insurance on my long acca above. So why not take a value Wolves bet? Jimenez to score and keep it tight and frustrate the Red Devils? I say yes.

100 units at Sportsbet on Wolves to WIN vs Man UTd @6.76. Other odds: 6.20
Units advantage: 56
Bet ID: 61d2f817d1d9a760f0c9bb39

Running advantage after 94 bets: +10864 (+56)
All-time cumulative: +78,212
Running units after 93 bets (11W|82L): +2121 (-100)

[buwaytress]

Finally. A sweet win from Joao Moutinho to hammer the nail home in Rangnick's gegenpressing failure. Wolves deserved this, absolutely battering United's corner but man they need to find a way to be incisive if I've to back them again.

Going for a home acca today in Algeria and League Two:
100 units on ASM Oran, El Bayadh, Hamra Annaba, MO Bejaia and Forest Green Rovers to WIN @10.68. Other odds: 9.85.
Units advantage: 83

Running advantage after 95 bets: +10947 (+83)
All-time cumulative: +78,295
Running units after 94 bets (12W|82L): +2697 (+576)

[buwaytress]

3 draws, not pretty, but we take some comfort in that tonight is a sure win (haha).

Cup games are anything but a given and I think bookies are giving Chelsea a bit too much of an advantage here, so I'm going with a Spurs win today, and double the stakes on them

200 units on Spurs to WIN vs Chelsea @4.68. Other odds: 4.30
Units advantage: 38x2=76

Running advantage after 96 bets: +11023 (+76)
All-time cumulative: +78,371
Running units after 95 bets (12W|83L): +2597 (-100)

Painful to watch the game last night, Chelsea completely overran Spurs, and their fastest and best passers were the back four... Moura was okay, and Son as usual their best player but when Kane is shit, the team is shit.

Since I like losing money so much, let's do another double stake on another team up against a fav.

200 units on Napoli to WIN vs Juventus @6.62. Other odds: 6.05
Units advantage: 57x2=114

Running advantage after 97 bets: +11137 (+114)
All-time cumulative: +78,485
Running units after 96 bets (12W|84L): +2397 (-200)

[Trofo]

Hey man, don't know if you have account on Stake but I just got offer from them like they know you At least I thought of you immediately.

I guess they are entering in sponsorship deal with Swidon and they have nice promo for their FA cup encounter with city. Odds are just about right for you @11, City will rotate a lot and money back if Swidon scores a goal. Here is whole deal:

Swindon Score vs Manchester City - Get a refund!
Now we're talking Giant Killer!
For the FA Cup third round, we're proud to be sponsoring Swindon Town as they try and do the impossible.
Can they reach the fourth round by knocking off the Premier League leaders in Manchester City?
If Swindon Score, we'll refund all bets on the Robins up to $50!
Terms and Conditions

    Pre-match singles bets on Swindon Town only
    Bets must be placed on 1x2 markets only
    Offer applies to first bet per household
    Refund will be paid if Swindon score at any time during the tie, not including penalty shootout
    Maximum Stake Back: $50
    Minimum Bet: $5
    No cashed-out or voided bets will be eligible for money back.
    Please allow 72 hours after matches for credit.
    Players who are attempting to abuse promotion through backing other markets will be ineligible

[buwaytress]

Thanks Trofo for that! I didn't get that email and I just checked too, but I'll have a look see and definitely throw $50 in there ha. I almost always take the Watford 1x2 there, and the funny thing is the only 2 games they've ever scored first and then later did not win was the Brentford and West Ham ones just 2 and 3 games ago. West Ham one was worth it at 3/1.

Anyway, seems like forum mods combined my last 2 posts, I guess because they were less than 24 hours from each other. Might have to change the way this thread works now. Just in case someone thought I edited picks. Shame about Napoli, they took the lead but couldn't hold it.

Bayern has a really bad Gladbach to beat, so no way they lose, but maybe they allow the away team to take a lead into half time?

100 units at Gladbach to WIN at HT v Bayern Munich @6.76. Other odds: 6.00
Units advantage: 76

Running advantage after 98 bets: +11213 (+76)
All-time cumulative: +78,561
Running units after 97 bets (12W|85L): +2197 (-200)

[Trofo]

Just started watching City and crazy Pep fileded 9 players from usual first 11 plus Palmer and keeper.

Your only chance is money back tonight. Sorry mate for pointing this game to you. I hate Pep roulette. That guy screwed me so many times in fantasy. I feel like he is doing it on purpose.

[buwaytress]

Just started watching City and crazy Pep fileded 9 players from usual first 11 plus Palmer and keeper.

Your only chance is money back tonight. Sorry mate for pointing this game to you. I hate Pep roulette. That guy screwed me so many times in fantasy. I feel like he is doing it on purpose.

Don't be sorry, I got the bet back... McKilder actually had a great night (not being objective but comparing the quality of the team vs City). He gave them a few scares, almost scored from a keeper mistake, and their right-back was actually having some good old fun. City took 3 yellows in this game but of course there was no doubt as to the outcome once the lineup was clear.

Also, I snagged a nice Gladbach win, and here's my pick of the day taking advantage of Super Boost on La Liga:
100 units on Gaziantep (live) and Celta Vigo HT win @7.84. Other odds: 7.10
Units advantage: 74
Bet ID: 61d96b7f5c110c81abb5548d

Running advantage after 99 bets: +11287 (+74)
All-time cumulative: +78,635
Running units after 98 bets (13W|85L): +2773 (+576)

[buwaytress]

Late late pick but couldn't resist the way odds jumped up for Chelsea against City, and boy do they need to win this one to keep all of our hopes alive for a City post-midway slump heh. Why not double our stakes too?

200 units at Fairlay on Chelsea to WIN vs City @5.62. Other odds: 5.10
Units advantage: 52

Running advantage after 100 bets: +11339 (+52)
All-time cumulative: +78,687
Running units after 99 bets (13W|86L): +2673 (-100)

[KTChampions]

Late late pick but couldn't resist the way odds jumped up for Chelsea against City, and boy do they need to win this one to keep all of our hopes alive for a City post-midway slump heh. Why not double our stakes too?

200 units at Fairlay on Chelsea to WIN vs City @5.62. Other odds: 5.10
Units advantage: 52

Running advantage after 100 bets: +11339 (+52)
All-time cumulative: +78,687
Running units after 99 bets (13W|86L): +2673 (-100)

Congratulations on your success in predicting the match Borussia - Bayern, I am glad that after a long "drought" your successful predictions are back in business 
I hope that with Chelsea you will also be right - no one wants the intrigue in the EPL to die so early. So far in the first half, City had more chances, but thank God Chelsea is still holding 0-0 and everything will be decided in the second half.

[buwaytress]

Thanks for the words, KTC. I haven't been updating this thread much, which is a shame here and there as I've made some good accas along the way (overall I've had a bad year in nett losses, but actually losing because of mess of favourites). Anyway, Chelsea did NOT make for a happy ending. But we've got Saints today and did I ever say I love going against City?

100 units at Fairlay on Southampton to WIN vs Man City @11.26. Other odds: 10.60
Units advantage: 66

Running advantage after 101 bets: +11405 (+66)
All-time cumulative: +78,753
Running units after 100 bets (13W|87L): +2473 (-200)

[Gasty4]

Good day everyone, I don't know if this thread is the best place to discuss about it but I just have to do so cause of time sake, a close has sent me 5 draws today makes it three days and I have always lost while trying to pick, I know with your experience here you might be of great help so I decided to bring this here, the draws are listed below Viz;

Coventry City - Stoke City
St Mirren - Aberdeen
Walsall - Bradford City
R. Charleroi - Kortrijkne
Burton Albion - MK Dons.......  I need to win big on this please I'm totally blank and need your help, what's the best four or three I should make my stake ?

[buwaytress]

^Sorry Gasty, this isn't the right place to ask -- I'm happy to give my opinions, but this isn't as much a tips thread as it is a value bet thread. You can look in Gambling discussion to discuss specific leagues.

Championship thread is here, for example: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5288319.0

Anyway, I fancy Egypt as the underdogs, where they are a tad more than 4/1 to win. But since we love an acca, let's paste in that with a Baggies home win in the Championship! Didn't we almost get a win with Saints though? Phew!

200 units at Sportsbet on Egypt and West Brom to WIN @6.49. Other odds: 6.20
https://sportsbet.io/sharebetslip/6cb47232-f2b5-4e82-96c7-3c4050c8388f
Units advantage: 29x2=58

Running advantage after 102 bets: +11463 (+58)
All-time cumulative: +78,811
Running units after 101 bets (13W|88L): +2373 (-100)

[buwaytress]

Some regrets here as I've actually been doing quite well in World Cup qualifiers but didn't post anything. Since I can afford some breathing space, I thought tonight's ripe for another upset. We've got Uruguay who're still in a fight to qualify, and after Suarez helped break their awful streak (I should know, always losing picking them), they're the bookie favourites. Venezuela are mathematically in with a chance too though, so I'm counting on Rondon to continue his fine national form and get a couple of goals tonight.

100 units at Sportsbet on Venezuela to WIN vs Uruguay @10.90. Other odds: 9.80
Units advantage: 110

Running advantage after 103 bets: +11573 (+110)
All-time cumulative: +78,921
Running units after 102 bets (13W|89L): +2173 (-200)

[Boristhecat]

Some regrets here as I've actually been doing quite well in World Cup qualifiers but didn't post anything. Since I can afford some breathing space, I thought tonight's ripe for another upset. We've got Uruguay who're still in a fight to qualify, and after Suarez helped break their awful streak (I should know, always losing picking them), they're the bookie favourites. Venezuela are mathematically in with a chance too though, so I'm counting on Rondon to continue his fine national form and get a couple of goals tonight.

100 units at Sportsbet on Venezuela to WIN vs Uruguay @10.90. Other odds: 9.80
Units advantage: 110

A very brave bet! Uruguay are playing very weakly in this qualifier and have minus 6 goal difference, but Venezuela are playing much worse and their goal difference is minus 13. I see that you prefer high odds betting and you are in the black, but I can imagine how much patience you have to wait for outcomes with such a small probability.
Have you thought about placing 10 (for example) bets on different matches at once with such high odds? Or is the selection of events difficult and it will not be easy to find several suitable ones for betting at once?

[buwaytress]

A very brave bet! Uruguay are playing very weakly in this qualifier and have minus 6 goal difference, but Venezuela are playing much worse and their goal difference is minus 13. I see that you prefer high odds betting and you are in the black, but I can imagine how much patience you have to wait for outcomes with such a small probability.
Have you thought about placing 10 (for example) bets on different matches at once with such high odds? Or is the selection of events difficult and it will not be easy to find several suitable ones for betting at once?

Aye, sadly, I actually stayed up for a little while (game was just past midnight for me) but as soon as the hosts went 2 goals up, it was never going to be a miracle. I still think it was a value bet though, especially as Rondon as I said seemed on fire, while Suarez and Cavani looked tepid, but these precise players made such a turnaround of form in the game.

I do like high odds, and they do come along quite a lot, but this thread is for what I'd consider value bets -- so I do need to know a bit about the bet, and I'm not very familiar outside of English football, or European...

But no, even favourites can have good value at times (like Argentina 2/1 last night), although I like longshot bets that shouldn't be. For example, a league leader like PSG, Bayern, City, head-to-head against midtable teams they don't have such a high win percentage as odds suggest. City is my favourite victim because of their league dominance, it's absolutely normal to see teams have 10/1 or 20/1 even odds of winning against them -- but in reality in the past 5/6 seasons their H2H record is absolutely not relative to that.

This is also looking to be my worst season so far since I started this thread. It's more than half gone and barely in the black It could very well be my first nett loss season actually. But as the point of this thread is value, the units I've gained simply by picking the bookie with the best odds will always be positive.

 

[Trofo]

This is also looking to be my worst season so far since I started this thread. It's more than half gone and barely in the black It could very well be my first nett loss season actually. But as the point of this thread is value, the units I've gained simply by picking the bookie with the best odds will always be positive.

You will made the rest of the profit trough pools this season Seems you traded a bit of your edge for upsets towards consistency and getting the points more.

And I expect your results here will pick up once the Champions League resumes. For instance City has solid lead in PL and I am sure they will have a priority on CL, there will be though PL games with good odds on opposition around those CL encounters. I am sure Pep gets annoyed when he heards he was only able to take CL because of Messi

[buwaytress]

This is also looking to be my worst season so far since I started this thread. It's more than half gone and barely in the black It could very well be my first nett loss season actually. But as the point of this thread is value, the units I've gained simply by picking the bookie with the best odds will always be positive.

You will made the rest of the profit trough pools this season Seems you traded a bit of your edge for upsets towards consistency and getting the points more.

And I expect your results here will pick up once the Champions League resumes. For instance City has solid lead in PL and I am sure they will have a priority on CL, there will be though PL games with good odds on opposition around those CL encounters. I am sure Pep gets annoyed when he heards he was only able to take CL because of Messi

Thanks for jinxing me in the pools hahaha but yeah, I'm still finding it very, very strange to be getting a great haul of points in the pools simply by less thinking and going with the "natural" favourites each round. It could still be coincidence as I've to try doing it again next season to prove it's true, but this is 4th season of EPL pool and the first time I'm doing every pick without thinking too much or looking at odds. It's still about 15+ games to go for all the leagues, though, so anything can still happen but it really does add up to some personal theory that if we remove visibility of odds, and remove the romantic idea of upsets, we make better predictions?

I have definitely done slightly better in Europe betting than EPL betting this season... I haven't done precise calculations but the majority of wins I know from back of my head is in UCL and Europa, plus in other domestic leagues. I started off brilliantly on this thread with that big Spurs and Leicester parlay vs City... but that I believe was the only big win from EPL. Napoli loss to Spartak and Bayern loss to Frankfurt are the big calls I got right here... but I've definitely lost money by betting on favourite accas... and on specials haha. Last half year in tennis I think hit 3 specials... Federer, Djokovic twice... but not since July, so countless "big value" specials putting me very deep in red.

But you're absolutely right. City will start to feel the pressure, and the bookies hopefully make that worth betting against them every game haha.