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Author Topic: Will btc difficulty go sideways for rest of the year?  (Read 5333 times)
philipma1957
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November 03, 2018, 03:30:41 AM
 #41

New projected difficulty starting at close to 7.4%. There's been a jump.

Wait the first week as

After a week it is more accurate.

We made about 180 blocks in 30 hours. That is more or less 0%

The jump was around 4:45 pm on the first of nov.

It is about 11:45 pm on the second of nov

That is 31 hours .

2016
1837
_______
179

179/6 = 29 hours fifty minutes.

And that would mean we are negative.

We did have a spike yesterday and it made us really close to 0%
For the jump yesterday.

If you look are aug 24 to nov 1 we are pretty flat.

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philipma1957
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November 03, 2018, 04:26:30 PM
Last edit: November 03, 2018, 08:58:35 PM by frodocooper
 #42

this is the last block from last jump

548351 (Main Chain)   2018-11-01 20:33:26   0000000000000000001ac75bed7eb6169255893f99de28f24e3e0e57b6f7db7b   1,240.59

this is the first block from this jump

548352 (Main Chain)   2018-11-01 20:54:16   00000000000000000013f4778796947335e3ab173b555259675be50cdfe875fa   1,361.62

here we are today

548615 (Main Chain)   2018-11-03 16:24:50   Unknown   0000000000000000000e79a80509101379eff1ee519658e28fe2cfaccdc69524   1,287.95

here is
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   7,184,404,942,701
Estimated Next Difficulty:   7,706,585,183,127 (+7.27%)
Adjust time:   After 1754 Blocks, About 11.7 days
Hashrate(?):   55,306,604,890 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.6 minutes
3 blocks: 28.8 minutes
6 blocks: 57.6 minutes
Updated:   

and

  2016
-1754
262 blocks in just about 44 hours

44 x 6 = 264  0 %   so right now  at this moment we are close to 0%

but we did see a big spike  right before  last jump  about 180 blocks were made vs 144  so there is gear held offline or  variance.  still  

Aug 24 2018   6,727,225,469,722   5.29%   48,155,355,642 GH/s  to

Nov 01 2018   7,184,404,942,701   0.02%   51,427,973,784 GH/s

is pretty much side ways


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November 05, 2018, 10:14:26 PM
Last edit: November 06, 2018, 12:16:00 AM by frodocooper
 #43

Only hope for BTC diff to stay low is BCH to succeed hard fork and drain mining power with it.
A more profitable SHA256 coin should keep BTC diff reasonable.

Getting Bitmain on their knee is the end goal for mining business as I see it by keeping a low BTC value.
philipma1957
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November 06, 2018, 10:02:18 AM
Last edit: November 06, 2018, 11:54:49 PM by frodocooper
 #44

Only hope for BTC diff to stay low is BCH to succeed hard fork and drain mining power with it.
A more profitable SHA256 coin should keep BTC diff reasonable.

Getting Bitmain on their knee is the end goal for mining business as I see it by keeping a low BTC value.

what are you talking about?

BCH had a hard fork more then a year ago.

As per my thread title this does not apply.

This thread is until the end of the year.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   7,184,404,942,701
Estimated Next Difficulty:   7,753,301,563,728 (+7.92%)  we are at -0.1% this prediction
Adjust time:   After 1375 Blocks, About 9.2 days
Hashrate(?):   51,037,931,916 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.6 minutes
3 blocks: 28.8 minutes
6 blocks: 57.6 minutes
Updated:

Difficulty History

Date   Difficulty   Change   Hash Rate

Nov 15 2018   about  -0.1%

Nov 01 2018   7,184,404,942,701   0.02%   51,427,973,784 GH/s
Oct 18 2018   7,182,852,313,938   -3.65%   51,416,859,634 GH/s
Oct 04 2018   7,454,968,648,263   4.23%   53,364,744,228 GH/s
Sep 20 2018   7,152,633,351,906   1.90%   51,200,543,878 GH/s
Sep 07 2018   7,019,199,231,177   4.34%   50,245,385,237 GH/s
Aug 24 2018   6,727,225,469,722   5.29%   48,155,355,642 GH/s

so far we are pretty flat  with under 2 months to go.

Now bitmain has announced  the S15 and T15

maybe good gear it may change  curve upwards

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November 06, 2018, 02:14:37 PM
Last edit: November 06, 2018, 11:55:10 PM by frodocooper
 #45

Anticipating has been and dependably will be a dolts errand with regards to this industry. There are simply such a large number of factors to separate it into basic numbers like you are doing in your post. While its actual if things remain static, the standpoint is somber however I exceptionally question that will remain as such for long.

Duh Jan 1 is not long.

So If I picked up on a august 24th to Jan 1 trend  good.

BTW  if diff jumps through the roof so what.

there are multiple way to make money .

Finding a side movement in diff lasting August 24  to Nov 15  has real money value to some of us.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   7,184,404,942,701
Estimated Next Difficulty:   7,734,491,307,782 (+7.66%)  
Adjust time:   After 1354 Blocks, About 9.1 days
Hashrate(?):   50,040,282,613 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.7 minutes
3 blocks: 29.1 minutes
6 blocks: 58.3 minutes
Updated:   

it is 4 days and 17 hours into this jump

4 x 144 = 576
6 x 17 =  102

total   =  678 to be at 0%

2016
1354

662  is where we are at   so we are -2.23%
yet the charts read +7.66%

so while you may think the numbers are simple many don't know that  real time we are -2.23%  vs bitcoinwisdom's future number of +7.66%

so there is a good chance that the sideways movement will continue to Nov 15th on a minimum.

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November 07, 2018, 01:08:45 AM
Last edit: November 07, 2018, 01:09:53 AM by frodocooper
 #46

Bitcoin Cash fork to be forked again
https://www.investinblockchain.com/bch-hard-fork-supported-by-coinbase-binance/

More SHA256 Coins to mine, more hashrate distributions over blockchain networks
They all need SHA256 hashpower.

It can explain current BTC diff with BTC value.
If others chains are more profitable then miners follow.
philipma1957
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November 07, 2018, 03:42:01 AM
 #47

Bitcoin Cash fork to be forked again
https://www.investinblockchain.com/bch-hard-fork-supported-by-coinbase-binance/

More SHA256 Coins to mine, more hashrate distributions over blockchain networks
They all need SHA256 hashpower.

It can explain current BTC diff with BTC value.
If others chains are more profitable then miners follow.

well bch is up to 620 a coin.

 it is a reason to keep btc diff low

and could be interesting to see what happens if BCH moves to 1000

we had crazy hash swings last year when bch took off.

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November 07, 2018, 11:29:58 AM
Last edit: November 07, 2018, 09:14:44 PM by frodocooper
 #48

I've stopped following bitcoinwisdom a while ago, they really have some weird estimations
Bitcoinity is showing a totally different picture:

Current difficulty:   7,184,404,942,702
Next difficulty estimate:   7,160,506,972,780   -0.33%

So does cryptothis

Latest Block:   549136  (9 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   96.9339%  (785 / 809.83 expected, 24.83 behind)
Current Difficulty:   7184404942701.792XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty:   between 6982085294311 and 7056173928059
Next Difficulty Change:   between -2.8161% and -1.7849%

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November 07, 2018, 02:29:36 PM
Last edit: November 07, 2018, 09:15:28 PM by frodocooper
 #49

The estimates don’t work well on bitcoinwisdom but. The charts with redline blue line gray line are decent.

And the raw numbers are accurate.

We started this jump on the first of nov at about 4:35 pm eastern time. So we are five days and 17 hours in.

That is

5 x 144 = 720
6 x 17 =.  102

So we need to have made 822 blocks right now to be zero.

So 2016 - 1220 = 796 made so 796/822=  0.968-1.000= - 3.32%. Real time. Not + 7

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November 08, 2018, 03:41:41 AM
Last edit: November 09, 2018, 01:19:35 AM by frodocooper
 #50

I've stopped following bitcoinwisdom a while ago, they really have some weird estimations

The estimates don’t work well on bitcoinwisdom but. The charts with redline blue line gray line are decent.

Yeah someone put me onto fork.lol about a year ago. Usually where I go if I'm bored andd feel like seeing what's been going on lately. Mostly because I've learned to accept Diff is going to do what Diff is going to do; So I just lay there and take it accept it. Currently showing - 12% but we are still more than half way there and I really don't trust them until around block 1500 ~75%, as this is usually enough data to get a close to accurate result barring any large changes in network hashrate.

Lately however it has been nice to check because as Phil has shown it's become significantly less depressing a figure for the moment.



I remember discussing the benefit of BCH for miners in February I think. I'd have to check a little more but without the BCH network we would be about 10% higher on the Difficulty. So the farms and big guys trying to float the network and battling over there own forks can keep it up.

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November 08, 2018, 11:47:42 AM
Last edit: November 09, 2018, 01:20:45 AM by frodocooper
 #51

The estimates don’t work well on bitcoinwisdom but. The charts with redline blue line gray line are decent.

[...]

So 2016 - 1220 = 796 made so 796/822=  0.968-1.000= - 3.32%. Real time. Not + 7

Yeah, timestamps are far more accurate on what might happen that the percentage bitcoinwisdom comes up, they are down to 5.29% today, following the downtrend but still positive. I don't know how and what they are doing but they should change something

Anyhow, a 5-7% decrease would match my expectation if we take into consideration the increase in BCH price, thus migration of hashing power and nothing major coming back online. There still could be the possibility of bitmain decoupling s9s and bringing s15 online but...I doubt they would do it this way, and not try to keep as much hashing power online all the time.

A jump by late November?

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November 08, 2018, 07:57:22 PM
Last edit: November 09, 2018, 01:21:55 AM by frodocooper
 #52

Yeah, timestamps are far more accurate on what might happen that the percentage bitcoinwisdom comes up, they are down to 5.29% today, following the downtrend but still positive. I don't know how and what they are doing but they should change something

Anyhow, a 5-7% decrease would match my expectation if we take into consideration the increase in BCH price, thus migration of hashing power and nothing major coming back online. There still could be the possibility of bitmain decoupling s9s and brining s15 online but...I doubt they would do it this way, and not try to keep as much hashing power online all the time.

A jump by late November?

My guess is still flat or close to flat the need to move upwards in diff is held back by a lot of factors.

A few years ago when I ran the diff contests thread.  "  heinz57 "  can't remember his name came up with the idea of hash spike showing future numbers.  I coined a clever name for it but it was his idea.
High spike in chart below shows network to be over 57,000,000,000 gh

not the current  number of
Hashrate(?):   46,724,750,622 GH/s



So  this spike could mean we move to 57,000,000,000 in under 2 months.

with bitmain's new killer machine maybe so. time will tell

but the break from  august 24th to Nov 15 will have been nice.

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November 10, 2018, 08:32:43 PM
 #53

Current BTC Hashrate 45,196,820,818 GH/s

Btrash fork sucking hashrate
https://twitter.com/CobraBitcoin/status/1061350647595974656
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November 11, 2018, 01:18:58 PM
Last edit: November 12, 2018, 11:57:41 PM by frodocooper
 #54

Current BTC Hashrate 45,196,820,818 GH/s

Btrash fork sucking hashrate
https://twitter.com/CobraBitcoin/status/1061350647595974656

yeah a lot of mining on BCH  loading up for the new fork.

New fork is the 15th of NOV.

So we will have a change after fork.

we will drop 2-4% this jump
we will go under sept 7 numbers

Sep 07 2018   7,019,199,231,177   4.34%   50,245,385,237 GH/s

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   7,184,404,942,701

Estimated Next Difficulty:   7,333,650,225,214 (+2.08%)

Adjust time:   After 713 Blocks, About 5.4 days
Hashrate(?):   45,970,633,292 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.9 minutes
3 blocks: 32.8 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   

look at chart and note the red line is negative,but that  there is a 44,000,000,000 to 57,000,000,000 flow in hash rate due to BCH/new fork


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November 12, 2018, 12:26:35 PM
Last edit: November 12, 2018, 11:59:20 PM by frodocooper
 #55

https://twitter.com/redtheminer/status/1061864690198863874

mining facilities in Yunnan province are facing another round of compliance check. Failure to do so will result in power cutoff from the grid.
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November 13, 2018, 10:25:47 AM
Last edit: November 14, 2018, 12:00:41 AM by frodocooper
 #56

yeah a lot of mining on BCH  loading up for the new fork.

New fork is the 15th of NOV.

So we will have a change after fork.

we will drop 2-4% this jump
we will go under sept 7 numbers

[...]

The retarget happens just after the fork, probably Friday night (European time)
We have right now a max estimate drop of 6.5%, and the price is still going down for bch, doubt the combined price of both versions will somehow manage to raise revenue enough to compensate for the last drops so a part of the hashrate will comeback after their stupid war will be over but nothign spectacular (i think)

Not impressed with the new s15 and t15, so whoever bought some cheap s9 or t2 can still breathe relieved for a while.
If I were to make a bet I would say there is no chance we see something over 10-15% till the end of the year. But I suck at predicting things.

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November 13, 2018, 02:48:47 PM
 #57

The retarget happens just after the fork, probably Friday night (European time)

The next retarget period will be a decent indication of how much hashrate was just mining BCH to build up a bag before the fork, just with the timing to see who comes back to BTC right away. A lot of Hash will stay there from the parties with loads of power and competing interests.



I was wondering do we have a decent idea right now of how much of the spikes and valleys on the hashrate charts is the combined variance of miners. Right now it's hard to figure with large amounts of hash shifting with the BCH fork.

I was watching a convo somewhere about someone speculating on their theory about Diff rising. It led me to something that I hadn't thought about with Diff. The effects corm with a pretty significant lag factor. When things start to go good or drive up interest to put more hashpower online, it could take a month maybe more for the Diff to react and increase, the same can be said about the decline. This person was talking about the rises that had been going on for a 6 month period this year. When I started to look at it, those were just the lingering increases from the Fomo late last year and the subsequent cooling period where miners where still flying off the shelves into January.

Then here we are where Diff has been essentially stale feeling no pull in one direction or another. Now a few months from now I think we are going to see the pull upward from the New gear which is 1 of the 2 factors I thought would cause a move.

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November 13, 2018, 03:39:35 PM
Last edit: November 14, 2018, 12:02:39 AM by frodocooper
 #58

Diff trails prices.  So staying flat makes sense since price is flat for a while now.

For sure gear/diff caught up to prices of last December .  So diff will be flat for a while longer due to flat prices if that theory is correct.

April 1 we were are 6700 price
Nov 12 we are at  6400 price

So that was 7 flat months

If you want to use the August 24 number I have been tracking from we stay flat till March .

But two other factors are bch/fork and of course newer 60 -70 watt a th gear.

I was think flat till Jan 1 but maybe not.

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November 14, 2018, 06:03:22 PM
 #59

So whose idea was it to tank the exchange again?

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November 14, 2018, 06:35:27 PM
 #60

It was obviously Phil.

To keep difficulty flat he had to tank the price to offset the new efficient hardware being launched.

Unless you are getting ready to pay bills today/tomorrow.

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