2025 PBA Governor's Cup

[Mr. Magkaisa]

At this point I’d already lean toward taking TNT on the moneyline. What they showed in Game 4 tells me it’s definitely possible they can repeat the win, maybe not by a blowout again, but still enough to get it done. The moneyline is around 2.55 right now, though honestly I’d like it better if it was closer to 3.00 for a bigger return. I wouldn’t really size this down much since I see it as a true 50/50 game, and there’s value here considering TNT is still listed as the underdog even after that strong win.

Yeah, this looks like a 50/50 game, but the bookies are smart enough to recognize the back-and-forth nature of the series, which is why they’ve now made the Beermen the favorites—even after they were blown out by more than 20 points in the last matchup. As for me, I’m sticking to the belief that Game 5 belongs to the Beermen. I may have some hesitation about the spread, but I trust my gut that SMB will cover this one.

This is why foreign dont understand the odds in PBA, To be honest!
We Filipino know the head to head series on this even the powerhouse team can lose more than once in any series. But with SMB, any opponet always gets the +

Game 5 tonight and we are now have a best of 3 fresh starts. Good luck on both teams. SMB for the win.

[Russlenat]

This is why foreign dont understand the odds in PBA, To be honest!

They’re probably confused with the line because they’re comparing it to how NBA spreads work, which isn’t really the same here lol.

We Filipino know the head to head series on this even the powerhouse team can lose more than once in any series. But with SMB, any opponet always gets the +

That's given as they are the best team in the PBA, and its only in game 4 where they are at +3.5, does that mean they'll win tonight as they are -?

Game 5 tonight and we are now have a best of 3 fresh starts. Good luck on both teams. SMB for the win.

Will try to bet on TNT, going against you guys. 

[Fredomago]

At this point I’d already lean toward taking TNT on the moneyline. What they showed in Game 4 tells me it’s definitely possible they can repeat the win, maybe not by a blowout again, but still enough to get it done. The moneyline is around 2.55 right now, though honestly I’d like it better if it was closer to 3.00 for a bigger return. I wouldn’t really size this down much since I see it as a true 50/50 game, and there’s value here considering TNT is still listed as the underdog even after that strong win.

Yeah, this looks like a 50/50 game, but the bookies are smart enough to recognize the back-and-forth nature of the series, which is why they’ve now made the Beermen the favorites—even after they were blown out by more than 20 points in the last matchup. As for me, I’m sticking to the belief that Game 5 belongs to the Beermen. I may have some hesitation about the spread, but I trust my gut that SMB will cover this one.

This is why foreign dont understand the odds in PBA, To be honest!
We Filipino know the head to head series on this even the powerhouse team can lose more than once in any series. But with SMB, any opponet always gets the +

Game 5 tonight and we are now have a best of 3 fresh starts. Good luck on both teams. SMB for the win.

Whoever win this game will have a slight edge in these series, and the pressure will be on the losing side but similar to what you said, SMB will keep that eye as favorite since bookies mostly favor SMB though that's how I see it personally, and for those TNT backer surely handicap and ML will be more attractive in placing their money.

Looking forward to see good competition and hopefully they'll bring entertainment even there's only fewer fans who still watching and supporting the league, Good luck mga Kabayan!

[Japinat]

After that big run by TNT in the first quarter, SMB is now up by 6 in the third.

It’s still a single-digit lead so it’s far from over, a lot can still happen with plenty of time left. What I’m noticing though is how physical this game has been, and because of that the scoring is pretty low. I’d honestly be surprised if this even reaches 180 points.

[Questat]

I’d honestly be surprised if this even reaches 180 points.

You were right, the total ended at just 178 points with SMB winning by 14.

Now it’s just one more win and SMB takes the championship. For a moment I really thought JMF got injured since it took him a while to get back into the game, good thing he’s fine. That pretty much removes any doubt going into Game 6, SMB is still in full force.

That said, if TNT can play with more consistency, they might still push this to a Game 7.

Congrats to bisdak40 and everyone who took the under.

[bisdak40]

I’d honestly be surprised if this even reaches 180 points.

You were right, the total ended at just 178 points with SMB winning by 14.

Now it’s just one more win and SMB takes the championship. For a moment I really thought JMF got injured since it took him a while to get back into the game, good thing he’s fine. That pretty much removes any doubt going into Game 6, SMB is still in full force.

That said, if TNT can play with more consistency, they might still push this to a Game 7.

Congrats to bisdak40 and everyone who took the under.

Thanks, i just the follow the script in this series hehe.
That was scary on Junemar Fajardo, i also thought that he got injured the series could have been over in favor of TNT if Junemar is injured but lucky for us SMB fans, nothing happens to him.
My prediction is that this would end on Sunday, game6 just like the series against Ginebra where the Beermen took the series in 6 games.

[LogitechMouse]

I’d honestly be surprised if this even reaches 180 points.

You were right, the total ended at just 178 points with SMB winning by 14.

Now it’s just one more win and SMB takes the championship. For a moment I really thought JMF got injured since it took him a while to get back into the game, good thing he’s fine. That pretty much removes any doubt going into Game 6, SMB is still in full force.

That said, if TNT can play with more consistency, they might still push this to a Game 7.
---

No he's not okay after that fall in the 3rd quarter. JMF is supposed to sit for the rest of the game after that, but Coach Leo asked him if he can still play on the court. He didn't answer, but it seems like Coach Leo is kind of forced him to play because there was a time during the 4th quarter where TNT had a run and decreased the lead to nearly single digits. We know that double-digit leads isn't safe anymore especially during a pivotal game like this one. He got injured, he's not okay, but they need him, and it's the Finals so... they'll use every ounce of strength they have whether they're 100% or not.

Just for context, this is the first time where the team that had the lead in the 1st quarter ended up losing. That's the trend in the first 4 games after this one. Anyway, I'm happy because I'm a SMB fan, but credits to other players like Tautuaa, and especially Brondial for stepping up when their main guy can't contribute that much on offense. I mean JMF still got a double-double so... yeah, and as long as they win then it's okay.

Next game's on Friday on MOA Arena. Do we see SMB fans (like me) to celebrate on the Arena, or do we see a do-or-die Game 7.

[mirakal]

Congrats @Mr. Magkaisa, your team is now just one win away from taking the series.
I might as well start preparing the amount we agreed on for the bet, as much as possible I should be able to pay you by next game.

I’m actually thinking of hedging it a bit, hehe, because I have a feeling TNT might come in as a slight favorite. The risk though is obvious, if they win this one and then lose in Game 7, I’m basically double dead. 

[Mr. Magkaisa]

Congrats @Mr. Magkaisa, your team is now just one win away from taking the series.
I might as well start preparing the amount we agreed on for the bet, as much as possible I should be able to pay you by next game.

I’m actually thinking of hedging it a bit, hehe, because I have a feeling TNT might come in as a slight favorite. The risk though is obvious, if they win this one and then lose in Game 7, I’m basically double dead. 

NO rush kabayan ! ahahahha

Well I am seeing game 6 with high tension. the physical plays will be more intense. JunMar is not healthy and bumped his knee.
BGR, fouled out with technical call, He played very hard. It is Brondial who made it possible but if he did not play like that, TNT won for sure.

i bet some amoount that SMB will win 16+ over TNT last night when Talk and text was up by 10 points almost!!

[Maslate]

Game 6 is starting to look like another scripted one.
We opened with a very suspicious line, as now TNT is only +1.5, with a real chance it flips the other way tomorrow.

So unless something weird happens and the script doesn’t play out, we already know who the better team is, and that’s SMB.
Because of that, taking it early feels like the right move.

[mirakal]

Congrats @Mr. Magkaisa, your team is now just one win away from taking the series.
I might as well start preparing the amount we agreed on for the bet, as much as possible I should be able to pay you by next game.

I’m actually thinking of hedging it a bit, hehe, because I have a feeling TNT might come in as a slight favorite. The risk though is obvious, if they win this one and then lose in Game 7, I’m basically double dead. 

NO rush kabayan ! ahahahha

Well I am seeing game 6 with high tension. the physical plays will be more intense. JunMar is not healthy and bumped his knee.
BGR, fouled out with technical call, He played very hard. It is Brondial who made it possible but if he did not play like that, TNT won for sure.

i bet some amoount that SMB will win 16+ over TNT last night when Talk and text was up by 10 points almost!!

If SMB gives TNT a chance to even the series, I’d actually be very confident TNT takes it in Game 7. So SMB really needs to finish this tomorrow if they don’t want all the pressure coming back on them.

Fajardo looks fine on the last game, but you never really know, injuries sometimes only show their effect after the game. And with how the line looks right now, it says a lot, TNT could possibly pull this one off.

Honestly, I’m hoping that happens just so we get a longer series.

[LogitechMouse]

Game 6 is starting to look like another scripted one.
We opened with a very suspicious line, as now TNT is only +1.5, with a real chance it flips the other way tomorrow.

So unless something weird happens and the script doesn’t play out, we already know who the better team is, and that’s SMB.
Because of that, taking it early feels like the right move.

I want to say it as well that we might see a Game 7, but I'm thinking of "What if the SMB will finish it in 6 games?"

Let's also not forget that the venue of Game 6 will be on MOA Arena and it can hold so many audiences as well. I mean if SMB fans will try and watch their team win the title on person and where's the best place for that to happen? MOA Arena because it can hold many people. I hope what I'm saying have some sense because TBH, I have this feeling that SMB will finish it in 6 games. 

Well, let's see how the "script" plays out. TNT has the talent, and for me they're just equal in terms of talent as we've seen in the last 5 games. Of course, I want to see SMB winning in Game 6 because they're my favorite team, but I want to see a Game 7 TBH. That would be more excitement for the PBA fans out there.

[Fredomago]

Game 6 is starting to look like another scripted one.
We opened with a very suspicious line, as now TNT is only +1.5, with a real chance it flips the other way tomorrow.

So unless something weird happens and the script doesn’t play out, we already know who the better team is, and that’s SMB.
Because of that, taking it early feels like the right move.

It's tough to predict as there's a possibility that script may take place, but just like what you said SMB is better than TNT but seeing how the series is moving TNT still have the chance of upsetting SMB, though being bias with how I assess this finals I think SMB will finish this and not to give any chance for TNT to upset them and play another game with a high-risk of losing the title,  SMB may do everything to end it in game 6 to secure the ring.

[Sanitough]

It's tough to predict as there's a possibility that script may take place, but just like what you said SMB is better than TNT but seeing how the series is moving TNT still have the chance of upsetting SMB, though being bias with how I assess this finals I think SMB will finish this and not to give any chance for TNT to upset them and play another game with a high-risk of losing the title,  SMB may do everything to end it in game 6 to secure the ring.

Just read the line and you’ll spot it. There’s no guarantee the line always tells the full story of the upcoming game, but with this spread, it’s clearly leaning toward TNT, especially if it doesn’t move later on.

If you analyze it and apply some logic to the current line, you can see that a lot of gamblers are already putting money on SMB, yet the line hasn’t really moved. That usually means there’s action coming in on the other side too, probably from the MVP crowd, lol.

[bisdak40]

Game 6 is starting to look like another scripted one.
We opened with a very suspicious line, as now TNT is only +1.5, with a real chance it flips the other way tomorrow.

So unless something weird happens and the script doesn’t play out, we already know who the better team is, and that’s SMB.
Because of that, taking it early feels like the right move.

Many PBA fans might suspect that this series is scripted until the final buzzer, hehe. Personally, I don’t think there’s any hocus-pocus going on—it’s simply that the series has become exciting for both teams. Players who weren’t known as scorers during the eliminations have stepped up and delivered, like Rodney Brondial and Kris Rosales, who put up significant numbers in the last game to help carry the load for SMB.

With that being said i still stick to my prediction that this game will end in game 6 and the coronation night will be tonight so my bet is SMB -1.5 @1.90.

Good luck to all of us.
BTW if there will be game 7, i might be hosting a free prediction contest open to all PBA fans in this forum .

[Fredomago]

It's tough to predict as there's a possibility that script may take place, but just like what you said SMB is better than TNT but seeing how the series is moving TNT still have the chance of upsetting SMB, though being bias with how I assess this finals I think SMB will finish this and not to give any chance for TNT to upset them and play another game with a high-risk of losing the title,  SMB may do everything to end it in game 6 to secure the ring.

Just read the line and you’ll spot it. There’s no guarantee the line always tells the full story of the upcoming game, but with this spread, it’s clearly leaning toward TNT, especially if it doesn’t move later on.

If you analyze it and apply some logic to the current line, you can see that a lot of gamblers are already putting money on SMB, yet the line hasn’t really moved. That usually means there’s action coming in on the other side too, probably from the MVP crowd, lol.

Hahaha, it's the force behind the league ahaha but seriously speaking its a matter of strong nerve betting with who you think that will going to win the game, I like the way bookies giving options as ML seems to be winnable either you are SMB or TNT you'll love seeing odds like this to generate decent profits if luck permits that you place your bet with the winning team.

[Ziskinberg]

Hahaha, it's the force behind the league ahaha but seriously speaking its a matter of strong nerve betting with who you think that will going to win the game, I like the way bookies giving options as ML seems to be winnable either you are SMB or TNT you'll love seeing odds like this to generate decent profits if luck permits that you place your bet with the winning team.

Looks like we’re seeing the same line again in Game 4. TNT is now the favorite at -1.5, and that alone pretty much tells you they’re expected to win tonight.

Honestly, I still think SMB is the better team and they could’ve finished this series already, but this line just feels suspicious and hard to fade against TNT here.
If I were to place a bet, I’d probably stay away from the side and go with the total instead, still leaning under since that’s been the trend so far.

[mirakal]

If I were to place a bet, I’d probably stay away from the side and go with the total instead, still leaning under since that’s been the trend so far.

Under 193.5 looks really good here. This should be a close game since SMB will try to close the series, but TNT won’t let that happen easily, so expect them to be more physical again just like the last game, even though they still lost.

In the last three games, two already went under, and this one feels like it’s heading the same way.
Good luck everyone, game’s starting in a few minutes, don’t miss getting your bet in.

[bisdak40]

End of the first quarter and the score is 26-10 in favor of SMB, seems like TNT can't get their grove going into this game, lot of turn-overs while SMB on the other hand is doing a very good job of taking care of the ball with only a single turn-over in the first quarter. Though lot of time left in this game but TNT have to take care of their turn-over to get back in this game.

[Sanitough]

Congrats to SMB. Looks like the series is ending tonight.

Fajardo carried the team again with a 20/20 (+) game, points and rebounds. If he really wants to close this out, it’s no surprise why he’s considered the best player.
Like what was mentioned earlier, it was a very physical game, which explains the low scoring. The under 193.5 cashes tonight.