[∞ YH] solo.ckpool.org 2% fee solo mining 282 blocks solved!

[Dark Akuma]

When was the last time one of those thumb drives that are a few hundred Gigahashes found a block? I see people online selling them for several hundred dollars and calling them "lottery miners" when no one in over a year, as far as I know, has found a block with one of these devices. The lowest hashrate recently in the past year was in the Terahashes (TH) and not Gigahashes (GH). Also, how do we know that the miners who found a block a few months ago with THs weren't using a proxy and didn't have much higher hashing power being disguised by a proxy?

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[-ck]

Last small miner found a block last year. It's simply an odds game - of course the terahash miners will find blocks thousands of time more frequently than the gigahash miners, since they have 1000x more hashrate.

[blockhilltop]

Last small miner found a block last year. It's simply an odds game - of course the terahash miners will find blocks thousands of time more frequently than the gigahash miners, since they have 1000x more hashrate.

Wondering if the more experienced ppl here can help, being a smallish miner I'm curious about how I would calculate my personal "luck" percentage as of now.

I've been consistently throwing a variety of different ASICs (totaling from 80T to a few PHs at a time) to this pool for over a year, and accross a few different wallets. Because it's not been consistnetly X TH/s I'm not sure how I can figure out approximately where I am. Am I still at 1% am I at 10% or more? Is it a function of total shares submitted relative to total network difficulty? And if so what is the formula to figure it out?

I've been tracking some data, like for example in total I've submitted approx this many shares:
1,948,660,040,000

And my best share thus far is:
1,474,956,179,560.041

What other info do I need to calculate my total personal luck at this point? And yes I know, it's just a simple game of odds and totally random, but after over a year I'd like to know a little more accurately just how lucky I've been.

Appreciate any info or help in figuring this out - thanks folks!

[-ck]

Wondering if the more experienced ppl here can help, being a smallish miner I'm curious about how I would calculate my personal "luck" percentage as of now.

I've been consistently throwing a variety of different ASICs (totaling from 80T to a few PHs at a time) to this pool for over a year, and accross a few different wallets. Because it's not been consistnetly X TH/s I'm not sure how I can figure out approximately where I am. Am I still at 1% am I at 10% or more? Is it a function of total shares submitted relative to total network difficulty? And if so what is the formula to figure it out?

I've been tracking some data, like for example in total I've submitted approx this many shares:
1,948,660,040,000

And my best share thus far is:
1,474,956,179,560.041

What other info do I need to calculate my total personal luck at this point? And yes I know, it's just a simple game of odds and totally random, but after over a year I'd like to know a little more accurately just how lucky I've been.

Appreciate any info or help in figuring this out - thanks folks!

Sadly there is no such thing as "progress towards a block". Only your hashrate from this point onwards counts. Your probability is purely related to what your current hashrate is.

[blockhilltop]

Sadly there is no such thing as "progress towards a block". Only your hashrate from this point onwards counts. Your probability is purely related to what your current hashrate is.

Thank you CK! Appreciate you brother

[philipma1957]

Sadly there is no such thing as "progress towards a block". Only your hashrate from this point onwards counts. Your probability is purely related to what your current hashrate is.

Thank you CK! Appreciate you brother

you have 2 trillion shares

difficulty is 53 trillion


normal luck means you would hit a block in 53 trillion shares.

basically spin a single die six times and normal luck means you get a six in six spins.

obviously you could get the six in 1 spin

but you could do 20 spins and not get a six.

so with solo mining 1 single share could hit a block

or 53 trillion shares or in the worse case as many as 530 trillion shares maybe as many as 760 trillion

shares. but to go as high as 760 trillion shares would be like spinning a die a few hundred times and not getting a six.

doing 2 trillion shares  means you did 2/53 of normal luck.

So if you hit soon you are way ahead of the game.

[g5120u]

Sadly there is no such thing as "progress towards a block". Only your hashrate from this point onwards counts. Your probability is purely related to what your current hashrate is.

Thank you CK! Appreciate you brother

you have 2 trillion shares

difficulty is 53 trillion


normal luck means you would hit a block in 53 trillion shares.

basically spin a single die six times and normal luck means you get a six in six spins.

obviously you could get the six in 1 spin

but you could do 20 spins and not get a six.

so with solo mining 1 single share could hit a block

or 53 trillion shares or in the worse case as many as 530 trillion shares maybe as many as 760 trillion

shares. but to go as high as 760 trillion shares would be like spinning a die a few hundred times and not getting a six.

doing 2 trillion shares  means you did 2/53 of normal luck.

So if you hit soon you are way ahead of the game.

Then the question is why the BS value is random, not the faster the computing power, the faster the record, and some people have not updated it for many days at all, and there is the so-called luck of changing wallets

[jimbocuzzi]

I've heard say you are always 100% luck away from hitting a block no matter what you've done in the past.

[willi9974]

Blockparty Run 43 is over, no Block found and here are the new Blockparty Run 44
English topic here and main English / German mixed here --> https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5460071.0

Best regards and cross our fingers
Willi
#######################################

just a short reminder, Blockparty Run 44 is in planning and we have some seats free

Best regards,
Willi

[willi9974]

We will start today at night or tomorrow morning.
So there is still a little time left for those who make short decisions.

Here are the link to our Status
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5237323.msg62562956#msg62562956

Best regards,
Willi

[philipma1957]

I've heard say you are always 100% luck away from hitting a block no matter what you've done in the past.

yep every time you spin a die your shot of rolling a six is 1 in 6 even if you made ten sixes in a row or made 50 rolls with no six.

[mikeywith]

Then the question is why the BS value is random, not the faster the computing power, the faster the record, and some people have not updated it for many days at all, and there is the so-called luck of changing wallets

There is a lot of confusion that one needs to clear before understanding how all of this works, it's best to start with some basic definitions of keywords, those keywords would be:

1- Random:

an event/process that is not and cannot be made exact and, consequently, whose outcome cannot be predicted, e.g., the sum of the numbers on two rolled dice.

Source:https://pages.jh.edu/virtlab/course-info/ei/notes/uncertainty_notes.pdf

2. Probability:

an estimate of the likelihood that a random event will produce a certain outcome.

Soruce:https://pages.jh.edu/virtlab/course-info/ei/notes/uncertainty_notes.pdf


Back you to question, the likelihood aka probability for a faster hashrate to get a higher share is HIGHER than that slower hashrate, but given that those are random events you can't be too sure that this will be the case unless measured against infinity, probably in a vacuum where nothing else could affect the probability of the events.

If you were to check the best share of two random miners, one with 10th and another with 100th, it's likely that the 100th will have a larger best share, it isn't exactly 50/50, because if you were to check 100 miners with 10th vs 100 miners with 100th you are a lot more likely to find higher best shares on the second group, if you check a sample of 1000 each, it's even more likely that the second group will have a better average best share, 1 million is even better, infinity is best (although one could argue that infinity doesn't exist in the first place  ).

Thinking about mining and shares could be confusing to most people, it would be better to just imagine a scenario where you go hunting with another person, both of you are blindfolded, and it's 3am, your gun fires 100 bullets a minute, his does 200 bullets a minute, every now and then a rabbit runs in front of you ( you can't see it, so skills here are ignored), so the two of you randomly fire 300 bullets at those poor rabbits, it's very possible that you could hit more rabbits than him in the first minute (Luck), but if you both keep shooting at the same pace for 1 hour, it's more likely that he would kill double the number of rabbits given that he takes more shots than you do (Probability).

Best share in our hunting example is like the "nearest shot to a rabbit you had so far" pretty meaningless when you are blindingly shooting at moving rabbits, it doesn't matter if your last shot was only 1cm or 1m away from the rabbit head, the rabbit is moving, your hands are shaking, it means exactly nothing because the following shots will not depend on that and are not affected by it or by any event that happened in the past, every shot you take is a completely independent event and has the exact same chances of hitting a rabbit as any other bullet that you fired or may fire in the future.

If block share is 1000, and a 1th miner has best share of 999 while 10th miner has only 10 best share, it doesn't change the fact that the second miners is 10 times more likely to hit a block than the first one.



 

[g5120u]

Then the question is why the BS value is random, not the faster the computing power, the faster the record, and some people have not updated it for many days at all, and there is the so-called luck of changing wallets

There is a lot of confusion that one needs to clear before understanding how all of this works, it's best to start with some basic definitions of key words, those key works would:

1- Random:

an event/process that is not and cannot be made exact and, consequently, whose outcome cannot be predicted, e.g., the sum of the numbers on two rolled dice.

Source:https://pages.jh.edu/virtlab/course-info/ei/notes/uncertainty_notes.pdf

2. Probability:

an estimate of the likelihood that a random event will produce a certain outcome.

Soruce:https://pages.jh.edu/virtlab/course-info/ei/notes/uncertainty_notes.pdf


Back you to question, the likelihood aka probability for a faster hashrate to get a higher share is HIGHER than that slower hashrate, but given that those are random events you can't be too sure that this will be the case unless measured against infinity, probably in a vacuum where nothing else could affect the probability of the events.

If you were to check the best share of two random miners, one with 10th and another with 100th, it's likely that the 100th will have a larger best share, it isn't exactly 50/50, because if you were to check 100 miners with 10th vs 100 miners with 100th you are a lot more likely to find higher best shares on the second group, if you check a sample of 1000 each, it's even more likely that the second group will have a better average best share, 1 million is even better, infinity is best (although one could argue that infinity doesn't exist in the first place  ).

Thinking about mining and shares could be confusing to most people, it would be better to just imagine a scenario where you go hunting with another person, both of you are blindfolded, and it's 3am, your gun fires 100 bullets a minute, his does 200 bullets a minute, every now and then a rabbit runs in front of you ( you can't see it, so skills here are ignored), so the two of you randomly fire 300 bullets at those poor rabbits, it's very possible that you could hit more rabbits than him in the first minute (Luck), but if you both keep shooting at the same pace for 1 hour, it's more likely that he would kill double the number of rabbits given that he takes more shots than you do (Probability).

Best share in our hunting example is like the "nearest shot to a rabbit you had so far" pretty meaningless when you are blindingly shooting at moving rabbits, it doesn't matter if your last shot was only 1cm or 1m away from the rabbit head, the rabbit is moving, your hands are shaking, it means exactly nothing because the following shots will not depend on that and are not affected by it or by any event that happened in the past, every shot you take is a completely independent event and has the exact same chances of hitting a rabbit as any other bullet that you fired or may fire in the future.

If block share is 1000, and a 1th miner has best share of 999 while 10th miner has only 10 best share, it doesn't change the fact that the second miners is 10 times more likely to hit a block than the first one.



 

Thanks for the careful explanation of the seniors, so sometimes I think about other aspects, the long-term shooting probability of self-owned equipment, and the so-called high and low computing power extended to renting multiple equipment, there is also the so-called continuous output and can only be rented for 24 hours, and others There are many factors such as the luck of the output of the large and small mining pools, which have become the scientific knowledge and value of people's continuous efforts
 

[willi9974]

Hello all,

Blockparty 44 is started with 20 PHs, cross our fingers


Live View Link:
https://solo.ckpool.org/users/bc1qwu7vwxa0dlcw9jhn626vgaj2d794x9spgtlg6s

{
 "hashrate1m": "18.6P",
 "hashrate5m": "13.6P",
 "hashrate1hr": "2.09P",
 "hashrate1d": "92.4T",
 "hashrate7d": "13.2T",
 "lastshare": 1690725408,
 "workers": 7,
 "shares": 1864711165,
 "bestshare": 20660043378.896,
 "bestever": 20660043378,
 "authorised": 1690724934,
 "worker": [
  {
   "workername": "bc1qwu7vwxa0dlcw9jhn626vgaj2d794x9spgtlg6s",
   "hashrate1m": "18.6P",
   "hashrate5m": "13.6P",
   "hashrate1hr": "2.09P",
   "hashrate1d": "92.4T",
   "hashrate7d": "13.2T",
   "lastshare": 1690725408,
   "shares": 1864711165,
   "bestshare": 20660043378.896,
   "bestever": 20660043378
  }
 ]
}

Bitcoin Difficulty:
52.328.312.063.444

Best Share:
20.660.043.378
377.748.274
268.639.625
159.414.405

[paid2]

Blockparty 44 is started with 20 PHs, cross our fingers

Good luck to you guys ! 

New bestshare is around 104G

Code:

 "bestshare": 104470244392.9809

[blockhilltop]

Blockparty 44 is started with 20 PHs, cross our fingers


Live View Link:
https://solo.ckpool.org/users/bc1qwu7vwxa0dlcw9jhn626vgaj2d794x9spgtlg6s

BlockParty 44 is running & a total of 110+PH currently at the pool (83+% pool luck) - thinkin' this is it gentlemen! Have a feeling CK Solo is going to get a block (or two!) in the next 24 hours!

Let's Fuckin Go!!

[blockhilltop]

Blockparty 44 is started with 20 PHs, cross our fingers


Live View Link:
https://solo.ckpool.org/users/bc1qwu7vwxa0dlcw9jhn626vgaj2d794x9spgtlg6s

BlockParty 44 is running & a total of 110+PH currently at the pool (83+% pool luck) - thinkin' this is it gentlemen! Have a feeling CK Solo is going to get a block (or two!) in the next 24 hours!

Let's Fuckin Go!!

OK, so two was overly optimistic, but.. is the BlockParty over already? Seems short this time. What's up Willi, is MRR (or NiceHash) jerking us around?

[willi9974]

Not so much member and coins that run in our wallet, so a little shorter as normal, but a high best share. 41x less to checkout a block. Maybe next time and if I plan a new run, I will post it here.

Best regards and Cross our fingers for next time
Willi

[dallasbehling]

Blockparty 44 is started with 20 PHs, cross our fingers


Live View Link:
https://solo.ckpool.org/users/bc1qwu7vwxa0dlcw9jhn626vgaj2d794x9spgtlg6s

BlockParty 44 is running & a total of 110+PH currently at the pool (83+% pool luck) - thinkin' this is it gentlemen! Have a feeling CK Solo is going to get a block (or two!) in the next 24 hours!

Let's Fuckin Go!!

How did we go from 1 possible 2 to none? Its hard enough to hit 1. This just ruined my week, and I was not even in on it.

[g5120u]

Blockparty 44 is started with 20 PHs, cross our fingers


Live View Link:
https://solo.ckpool.org/users/bc1qwu7vwxa0dlcw9jhn626vgaj2d794x9spgtlg6s

BlockParty 44 is running & a total of 110+PH currently at the pool (83+% pool luck) - thinkin' this is it gentlemen! Have a feeling CK Solo is going to get a block (or two!) in the next 24 hours!

Let's Fuckin Go!!

How did we go from 1 possible 2 to none? Its hard enough to hit 1. This just ruined my week, and I was not even in on it.

According to the results of long-term observation, the BS value is like the random maximum value after the dice, and then you re-roll the dice every time after passing the BS value until you are lucky enough to pass the maximum difficulty
 
And every pass means that the shares of daily calculations must be achieved, just like the last time the 12-digit number of shares spelled 15-digit number
Then the computing power DIFF above T level is multiplied by the shares, and it is possible to spell 14-15 digits in a short time,
This is why many seniors say that G-level computing power is unlikely to be completed (and the difficulty of rapid growth), it will take longer time and luck