Who will Replace Russian Gas Supplies to Europe?

[NeuroticFish]

Nobody. Russia doesn't need to be replaced because gas doesn't need to be replaced. What we know as "electricity prices are high" or "oil prices went up" are short term problems and it is sad that people do not see it. Renewable energy doesn't require as much money as you imagine for sustaining it, the whole cost is at building it and after you did, then it is minor to keep it going. Whereas with stuff like gas and oil you keep paying top price for it all the time.

Meaning, if you pay 100x more right now, which is idiotic I know, then you suddenly start to pay 10% later on each year. That is what the whole world is going towards. Since every nation could use their version of it, then all nations could become energy independent in the long run for sure.

I don't agree to this.
Solar panels do need replacements now and then. Every time I go near wind turbines, some of them are under maintenance.
I was also told that in some cases blades had to be replaced and it's difficult to throw away the old ones (and that person told me that they cannot be recycled).
Also, neither wind nor sun are there always. And snow covers the panels, hail can damage them...
So it's not all nice like in the fairy tales.

The way the grid works needs backup for when the cheap electricity is not available. And the backup cannot just restart every second the clouds come or the wind stops blowing, hence it will pretty much run 24/7.
All in all your fairy tale is far from feasible. Sorry.

[1714811037]

1714811037

[Wind_FURY]

Who will Replace Russian Gas Supplies to Europe?

It will be a problem without a simple solution. For those countries that turned off their Nuclear Power Plants, should they turn them back on? For those countries that stopped using coal, should they reverse their policies on renewable energy, and the "Green Agenda"?

[Fortify]

There are suspicions that Russia might fight back by shutting gas supply to the West. Some sources confirmed that the US is already in talks with Qatar to become Russia’s substitute.  
 
But Qatar and other oil and gas producing nations confirmed that they will not be able to provide substantial amounts of gas to replace Russia’s supply.
 
African countries have been tipped as the best option because the continent has some of the world’s deepest gas reserves. But Africa might not replace Russia because of insecurity and lack of infrastructures.

Who will replace Russia?

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/3/1/analysis-can-african-gas-replace-russian-supplies-to-europe

It's the ultimate form of irony - Europe cannot afford to cut Russian energy supplies off right now and it is one of the last sources of revenue left coming into Russia, so they will not even bring up the idea of cutting supplies right now. Europe will eventually wean itself off Russian gas at this rate, but places like Germany have been so foolish to cut off nuclear power which is a very useful tool for providing a baseline energy flow - as renewables can often have erratic supply and battery storage ability is a work in progress. I don't see either of these two sides jeopardising the flow of oil and gas in the short term.

[poldanmig]

There are suspicions that Russia might fight back by shutting gas supply to the West. Some sources confirmed that the US is already in talks with Qatar to become Russia’s substitute.  
 
But Qatar and other oil and gas producing nations confirmed that they will not be able to provide substantial amounts of gas to replace Russia’s supply.
 
African countries have been tipped as the best option because the continent has some of the world’s deepest gas reserves. But Africa might not replace Russia because of insecurity and lack of infrastructures.

Who will replace Russia?

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/3/1/analysis-can-african-gas-replace-russian-supplies-to-europe

America and other European countries have imposed sanctions on Russia trade and economy, so far the European Union has agreed to close access to imports and imports from
and to Russia, I think what they are doing now is not harming Russia at all and even seems like a boomerang for Europe, Russia is the main supplier of oil and gas to Europe, so if Europe banned Russia, wouldn't Europe be committing suicide?

[AmoreJaz]

Europe's dependence on gas supply from Russia is of course very well understood by Russia so that it dares to invade Ukraine, I'm sure European countries will not be too bold in giving sanctions or helping Ukraine to fight Russia, the best solution might be to leave Russia until what they want is achieved in order to save gas supply and european industry.

this maybe the reason why putin is so adamant in invading ukraine because he has cards from his end. but for sure, some of these countries relying from russia are now looking for alternatives, because it can easily gets to worst. so they need to prepare for whatever scenario they will face after this terrible war.
we all hope that putin comes to his senses. but seems that it's not gonna happen from what we are witnessing in the past few days.
maybe, time to seriously look for renewable sources of energy. and not rely from gas.

[Gyfts]

The U.S. are looking at Iran for oil, but it's not clear to me how natural gas will be replaced. There's a lot of infrastructure considerations involved. I think most countries are just going to have to deal with the high costs and hope the energy supply from Russia isn't curtailed any further. They might even use it as an initiative for green energy but that strategy won't impact anything short term.

[Sir Legend]

Today I heard the news that russia controlled the largest nuclear power plant in europe, this is making conditions even more difficult, gas supply will be an important issue and make other countries don't want to take risks, i believe because russia's economic position is very strong then Russia not doubt to invasion of ukraine.

[CapGelatik]

Today I heard the news that russia controlled the largest nuclear power plant in europe, this is making conditions even more difficult, gas supply will be an important issue and make other countries don't want to take risks, i believe because russia's economic position is very strong then Russia not doubt to invasion of ukraine.

Obviously the Russians must have thought things through before they invaded Ukraine,
even they are not afraid of the sanctions imposed by European countries,
This shows how superior Russia is and we don't know what the future will hold

[Wind_FURY]

The U.S. are looking at Iran for oil, but it's not clear to me how natural gas will be replaced. There's a lot of infrastructure considerations involved. I think most countries are just going to have to deal with the high costs and hope the energy supply from Russia isn't curtailed any further. They might even use it as an initiative for green energy but that strategy won't impact anything short term.

Didn't the U.S. sanction Iran oil from being exported from that country? There were some Bitcoiners who said that it forced Iran to escape sanctions by using their own oil to power hashing farms to mine Bitcoin, and sell them. Russia might start doing it. Haha.

[so98nn]

If Africa do have a lot of oil reserves then it'll probably come from them. There were rumours of building a rail way under the sea between Gibraltar and Morocco a while ago, pipes for carrying gas would be easier to place and if the EU are serious on sanctioning Russia then it'd probably be worthwhile to sponsor those countries and provide them infrastructure.

There might also be attempts to increase the number of rigs there are for companies like bp and Shell to be able to extract more oil (the UK government has a habit of nationalising/buying things when the private sector makes them too expensive too which might be another thing that happens).

That is so screwed. So now world will be fighting for the gas supply hnn? And we did not think a bit before pressing the button against Russia. Lolz. Well, I am pretty sure the whole thing is just little part of big picture. NATO and USA might have thought something. They will surely choose alternate like Africa, although its stated that African project was stopped because of Putin's word. Well, if he can bribe then surely USA and NATO can go beyond this to work the math. Imagine stopping the gas supply will halt the major operations throughout the world and it would be worst decision not to put-forth exact agenda for the African sources.

Coal, Idk, the requirement of the world has increased a lot. We not only talking about energy product but also fuel for the cars, ships, airlines and much more. Without proper sources whole nations can collapse.

[Lucius]

Didn't the U.S. sanction Iran oil from being exported from that country? There were some Bitcoiners who said that it forced Iran to escape sanctions by using their own oil to power hashing farms to mine Bitcoin, and sell them. Russia might start doing it. Haha.

Now is the crucial moment to show if your theories make any sense, because Russia is now in a situation where it will have more than enough resources to mine Bitcoin, and sanctions have no effect on them if we know they can import mining devices from China. But I still think that the earnings and all the other benefits of such an operation are quite insufficient for the situation in which that country finds itself.

Besides, do we want this to happen at all, given what is happening in Ukraine? I can already see the headlines screaming from all the front pages "Putin uses Bitcoin to avoid sanctions". Do I even have to say what would happen next?

[andriarto]

Didn't the U.S. sanction Iran oil from being exported from that country? There were some Bitcoiners who said that it forced Iran to escape sanctions by using their own oil to power hashing farms to mine Bitcoin, and sell them. Russia might start doing it. Haha.

Now is the crucial moment to show if your theories make any sense, because Russia is now in a situation where it will have more than enough resources to mine Bitcoin, and sanctions have no effect on them if we know they can import mining devices from China. But I still think that the earnings and all the other benefits of such an operation are quite insufficient for the situation in which that country finds itself.

Besides, do we want this to happen at all, given what is happening in Ukraine? I can already see the headlines screaming from all the front pages "Putin uses Bitcoin to avoid sanctions". Do I even have to say what would happen next?

the use of bitcoin would probably be exempt from worldwide sanctions, given that there are no laws governing it. China does seem to be on the side of Russia, even though there has been no official statement so far, because I think China will only profit for their economy without any direct involvement. although not significant, I think the tension between Russia and Ukraine has an impact on the Chinese economy as well

[darewaller]

Europe's dependence on gas supply from Russia is of course very well understood by Russia so that it dares to invade Ukraine, I'm sure European countries will not be too bold in giving sanctions or helping Ukraine to fight Russia, the best solution might be to leave Russia until what they want is achieved in order to save gas supply and european industry.

this maybe the reason why putin is so adamant in invading ukraine because he has cards from his end. but for sure, some of these countries relying from russia are now looking for alternatives, because it can easily gets to worst. so they need to prepare for whatever scenario they will face after this terrible war.
we all hope that putin comes to his senses. but seems that it's not gonna happen from what we are witnessing in the past few days.
maybe, time to seriously look for renewable sources of energy. and not rely from gas.

We have to remember that Russia needs to be careful about the situation as well. They might be way too late about it too. Europe will remember this and either they will get the gas from Russia or not get it, I am 100% sure that we are going to see Europe looking for alternatives for sure.

France with Nuclear plants already, that's given but I am going to assume that in 10 years or so Russia will not even need sanctions to not be able to sell gas, nobody will need it anymore thanks to renewable energy sources. Which is why threatening with energy sources is not a great way to get out of this situation for Russia, that makes his customers look for alternatives.

[fullhdpixel]

Now is the crucial moment to show if your theories make any sense, because Russia is now in a situation where it will have more than enough resources to mine Bitcoin, and sanctions have no effect on them if we know they can import mining devices from China. But I still think that the earnings and all the other benefits of such an operation are quite insufficient for the situation in which that country finds itself.

Besides, do we want this to happen at all, given what is happening in Ukraine? I can already see the headlines screaming from all the front pages "Putin uses Bitcoin to avoid sanctions". Do I even have to say what would happen next?

It does make sense because oil can generate electricity and this should run the miners. Iran right there have found a way on how to keep up with the sanctions so chances are, Russia will do the same thing. They are lucky that china is their ally because china almost have the items that they need for them to keep going.

The earnings might look small but that is better than nothing at all. At least that can still help them while waiting for the sanctions to end. Some don't want this for some reasons but I think the majority of bitcoiners like it as this can somehow remove the issue about the btc mining and mining would be more legal now.

[stompix]

Didn't the U.S. sanction Iran oil from being exported from that country? There were some Bitcoiners who said that it forced Iran to escape sanctions by using their own oil to power hashing farms to mine Bitcoin, and sell them. Russia might start doing it. Haha.

Now is the crucial moment to show if your theories make any sense, because Russia is now in a situation where it will have more than enough resources to mine Bitcoin, and sanctions have no effect on them if we know they can import mining devices from China. But I still think that the earnings and all the other benefits of such an operation are quite insufficient for the situation in which that country finds itself.

In theory, it could work, in practice...nope!

First, there are no Asics on the market which Russia could simply buy, it needs to wait as long-term clients of Bitmain have deliveries scheduled till Q2 2023.
Second, although Bitmain is Chinese, the chips are made by TSMC which has already ceased exports to Russia and who had no trouble breaking contracts with Huawei, and we can't compare that Chinese government monster company with Bitmain

Not counting anymore since there will be a lot of numbers, Russia would have not only to outbid westerners but to also bribe Bimtain for that and to convince them it's better to risk year-long contracts with people whose pockets are full of dollars for some rubles, cause where is Russia going to find those dollars to pay for the gear?
And even if somehow they miraculously manage to get it, they will still have to compete with US farms for the pie.
Since Riot and Mara manage 2-3 cents per kWh, even if Russia would somehow generate zero costs energy, the difference at these prices right not is just an extra 2$ on the revenue of 18$ for a 10k piece of gear, which would mean even subsidized they will recover their investment in about 500 days which..is not that tempting considering there is an extra 50exa hash or at least 25% in difficulty rise projected to be delivered by the middle of the year.

But poeple like to believe in unicorn farts, as some myths say they smell of candy.  

[el kaka22]

Solar panels do need replacements now and then. Every time I go near wind turbines, some of them are under maintenance.
I was also told that in some cases blades had to be replaced and it's difficult to throw away the old ones (and that person told me that they cannot be recycled).
Also, neither wind nor sun are there always. And snow covers the panels, hail can damage them...
So it's not all nice like in the fairy tales.

The way the grid works needs backup for when the cheap electricity is not available. And the backup cannot just restart every second the clouds come or the wind stops blowing, hence it will pretty much run 24/7.
All in all your fairy tale is far from feasible. Sorry.

You do know that you could have excess energy, right? I mean let’s assume you need 100, you could build systems for 200 if you want, or 500. Sure it would cost a lot and it will take years, probably decades but that is where we will end up with. Snow also helps the solar panels as well; it allows to attract a bit more sun when it hits. All in all there are plenty of possibilities, wind turbines when wind is there, solar panels when sun is out, hydro when you have running water, all of these could be used at any moment 12 months all around. It is not easy, of course it’s not, there is no one disputing that. But, we are talking about the future not today.

Obviously, nobody could do it today, this is something that will take one or two decades. But "eventually" it will happen. Even if not for anything else, it will happen for preventing climate change (which we are already too late for).

[jc12345]

In the short term there will be big problems in natural gas supply to Europe. In the medium to long term my bet for gas would be on Africa. They have a lot of untapped supply, but building infrastructure would take some time. Regarding oil it would either be Iran or Africa in my view. Again Africa has a lot of untapped oil reserves.

[gantez]

In the short term there will be big problems in natural gas supply to Europe. In the medium to long term my bet for gas would be on Africa. They have a lot of untapped supply, but building infrastructure would take some time. Regarding oil it would either be Iran or Africa in my view. Again Africa has a lot of untapped oil reserves.

In this regards of looking for substitute for Russian gas, the NATO countries have seen the need to look into that challenge of gas. Because of the need for the gas from Russia that EU countries benefit from, they started looking up alternative because the current situation of war led them to that purpose. Well they have option in either African or the Asian countries but they have to be prepared for providing infrastructure because these continent are far unlike Russia that is just a neighborhood.

[ivankoh]

In the short term there will be big problems in natural gas supply to Europe. In the medium to long term my bet for gas would be on Africa. They have a lot of untapped supply, but building infrastructure would take some time. Regarding oil it would either be Iran or Africa in my view. Again Africa has a lot of untapped oil reserves.

In this regards of looking for substitute for Russian gas, the NATO countries have seen the need to look into that challenge of gas. Because of the need for the gas from Russia that EU countries benefit from, they started looking up alternative because the current situation of war led them to that purpose. Well they have option in either African or the Asian countries but they have to be prepared for providing infrastructure because these continent are far unlike Russia that is just a neighborhood.

Yes, I agree that the NATO alliance will have more incentive to build oil and gas plant facilities, currently Russia is exporting more than 50% of this industry.  They do not want to depend on the high price of US liquefied gas and Russia's war problem, what will be the problem.  I heard that Germany is a country that has the ability to dramatically increase oil and gas production to supply the west.

[eaLiTy]

There are suspicions that Russia might fight back by shutting gas supply to the West. Some sources confirmed that the US is already in talks with Qatar to become Russia’s substitute.  
 
But Qatar and other oil and gas producing nations confirmed that they will not be able to provide substantial amounts of gas to replace Russia’s supply

It is a fact that some of the European countries rely on Russian oil especially Germany and the only country that can replace that is the US, but the Biden administration is not even willing to tap into that natural resources and they are asking other countries to fill that shoes and that is not going to happen. So if Russia decides to stop giving away their natural resources then some of the European countries will be in trouble and hence they need to support them indirectly.