Who will Replace Russian Gas Supplies to Europe?

[istiak2277]

If Africa do have a lot of oil reserves then it'll probably come from them. There were rumours of building a rail way under the sea between Gibraltar and Morocco a while ago, pipes for carrying gas would be easier to place and if the EU are serious on sanctioning Russia then it'd probably be worthwhile to sponsor those countries and provide them infrastructure.

There might also be attempts to increase the number of rigs there are for companies like bp and Shell to be able to extract more oil (the UK government has a habit of nationalising/buying things when the private sector makes them too expensive too which might be another thing that happens).

Even they really start building infrastructure it will take a lot of time. Africa is a long way from EU and securities will be main issue if they wants to connect a pipe line with EU. Many Africans country has insurgents that is hostile towards their govt. Also by this time price of gas in EU will be sky high and many factories will be closed due to lack of gas. Putting sanction on Russia not only damage Russia but also EU and USA.

[Leviathan.007]

That's exactly the befits for some countries after Russia started the war if you look deeply, some countries like Arabia and other middle east countries got a lot of oil and increasing the price of oil was very good news for them because they can now sell oil and gas for better price also many countries now demand oil from them and they can have more powers on economic negotiations because a big oil supplier like Russia is now out of the game and this gives these countries a good chance.

[stompix]

Africa is a long way from EU and securities will be main issue if they wants to connect a pipe line with EU.

Trans-Saharan (Nigeria- Mediterranean Sea) gas pipeline 4,128 km
Yamal–Europe pipeline  4,107 km
Power of Siberia 3,968 km

Check the map, northern Africa is closer to some countries in Europe than Moscow is, and the Russian gas fields are far further away.

Also by this time price of gas in EU will be sky high and many factories will be closed due to lack of gas. Putting sanction on Russia not only damage Russia but also EU and USA.

And all those factories that create the 1,745 billion, that's 1.7 trillion or more than the entire economy of Russia, what is the rest of the world going to do without them?  If Europe can't afford to pay double for the 50 billion of gas it gets, let's see the rest of the world come with 3.4 trillion instead 

[RealMalatesta]

You do know that you could have excess energy, right? I mean let’s assume you need 100, you could build systems for 200 if you want, or 500. Sure it would cost a lot and it will take years, probably decades but that is where we will end up with. Snow also helps the solar panels as well; it allows to attract a bit more sun when it hits. All in all there are plenty of possibilities, wind turbines when wind is there, solar panels when sun is out, hydro when you have running water, all of these could be used at any moment 12 months all around. It is not easy, of course it’s not, there is no one disputing that. But, we are talking about the future not today.

Obviously, nobody could do it today, this is something that will take one or two decades. But "eventually" it will happen. Even if not for anything else, it will happen for preventing climate change (which we are already too late for).

This is true, it will "eventually" reach there for sure. However, what will Europe do meanwhile? I mean without any Russian help, let's assume you turn Russia into Iran and from now on there won't be any European nation or even a single business working with Russia, that means it is going to be difficult for Europe to find that energy for the time being.

It is not about what will happen "eventually", that is understandable and a good future plan, but we are talking about what to do until that moment. I believe that they could still get some through some other nations, and they could increase the amount they are spending to get some more energy methods, like they just gave 500 million euro to Ukraine as help, spend that on wind turbines and you could probably buy like 550 of them wholesale, or even got it made and get like 700 or so. That would be enough to cover so much of the difference. So they need to make it quicker and closer.

[Wind_FURY]

Didn't the U.S. sanction Iran oil from being exported from that country? There were some Bitcoiners who said that it forced Iran to escape sanctions by using their own oil to power hashing farms to mine Bitcoin, and sell them. Russia might start doing it. Haha.

Now is the crucial moment to show if your theories make any sense, because Russia is now in a situation where it will have more than enough resources to mine Bitcoin, and sanctions have no effect on them if we know they can import mining devices from China. But I still think that the earnings and all the other benefits of such an operation are quite insufficient for the situation in which that country finds itself.

I believe if they are smart, they have to. They actually have no choice but to use Bitcoin as one of the regulatory work-arounds to escape sanctions.

Besides, do we want this to happen at all, given what is happening in Ukraine? I can already see the headlines screaming from all the front pages "Putin uses Bitcoin to avoid sanctions". Do I even have to say what would happen next?

It's good and it's bad. It's good because it proves Bitcoin's thesis in practice, but out of that good, it's bad because it gives them the power to work around sanctions. But should Bitcoin be centralized, and have a kill-switch?

[Rruchi man]

Nobody. Russia doesn't need to be replaced because gas doesn't need to be replaced.

Renewable energy is a long term solution to this current challenge about replacement of gas supply from Russia and with the current situation, most countries will start looking into it, but I think what OP is asking is the immediate short term solution if Russia decides to cut the gas supply now. Countries will definitely suffer and will need an alternate supply even if they are to look into projects for renewable energy, because switching to renewable energy just immediately may not be able to carter for the energy demands and needs of the entire country.

[DU18]

There are suspicions that Russia might fight back by shutting gas supply to the West. Some sources confirmed that the US is already in talks with Qatar to become Russia’s substitute.  
 
But Qatar and other oil and gas producing nations confirmed that they will not be able to provide substantial amounts of gas to replace Russia’s supply.
 
African countries have been tipped as the best option because the continent has some of the world’s deepest gas reserves. But Africa might not replace Russia because of insecurity and lack of infrastructures.

Who will replace Russia?

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/3/1/analysis-can-african-gas-replace-russian-supplies-to-europe

Sanctions against Russia have actually made Europe suffer, in fact gas is a vital factor needed by Europe all this time and if Europe does not get alternative gas supplies from other countries, of course, soon we will see the European continent will be dark because gas is the main energy on the European continent, currently the increase in gas prices in Europe has almost reached 114% and this is the highest increase in recent years, Europe decision to exclude Russia from SWIFT is actually a boomerang for European countries today.

[YOSHIE]

Indeed, all countries know that Russia is the largest country that supplies gas to Europe, there are at least four other countries that continue to distribute gas to Europe.
You can see below.
From where do we import energy?


Although the percentage is much different from Russia, Europe can still enjoy gas from other countries, apart from Russia, of course Europe must limit gas users in each region to meet the existing supply.

Negative effect if russia no longer sends gas to europe, definitely especially for big companies that need a lot of gas, that's the war of all parties, feel the loss.

[Silberman]

In the short term there will be big problems in natural gas supply to Europe. In the medium to long term my bet for gas would be on Africa. They have a lot of untapped supply, but building infrastructure would take some time. Regarding oil it would either be Iran or Africa in my view. Again Africa has a lot of untapped oil reserves.

In this regards of looking for substitute for Russian gas, the NATO countries have seen the need to look into that challenge of gas. Because of the need for the gas from Russia that EU countries benefit from, they started looking up alternative because the current situation of war led them to that purpose. Well they have option in either African or the Asian countries but they have to be prepared for providing infrastructure because these continent are far unlike Russia that is just a neighborhood.

Yes, I agree that the NATO alliance will have more incentive to build oil and gas plant facilities, currently Russia is exporting more than 50% of this industry.  They do not want to depend on the high price of US liquefied gas and Russia's war problem, what will be the problem.  I heard that Germany is a country that has the ability to dramatically increase oil and gas production to supply the west.

Without a doubt all of those that are dependent on the resources of Russia and that disagree with their actions will try to find alternatives and stop depending on Russia for their supply of gas, and this is nothing new, during the cold war there were many confrontations among the US and the USSR, however what brought the USSR down was its weak economy and the low prices of oil around the world at the time, so it is likely the US will try to use the same strategy to bring Putin down.

[romero121]

Nobody. Russia doesn't need to be replaced because gas doesn't need to be replaced.

Renewable energy is a long term solution to this current challenge about replacement of gas supply from Russia and with the current situation, most countries will start looking into it, but I think what OP is asking is the immediate short term solution if Russia decides to cut the gas supply now. Countries will definitely suffer and will need an alternate supply even if they are to look into projects for renewable energy, because switching to renewable energy just immediately may not be able to carter for the energy demands and needs of the entire country.

Finding an immediate replacement is really tough. Based on the oil production among the European countries, there is none with the production ability of Russia. Right now Arabian Countries can take the place of Russia. In specific countries like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, etc will make use of the situation making their country super rich increasing the oil price

[usekevin]

Until now, no one has been able to claim that they can replace Russia as a gas supplier in Europe, but the solutions that are given for the future if Russia really stops gas supply are using steam and coal.

Their is no fixed statement was made by European nation.Most of the country was depends on Russia for an Gas Supply.Country like India had made agreement with Russia for the supply of Gas from Russia under earth.So we had only option to hold for the End of War.Even depend on Gas Supply many nations including EU had put an economic sanction on the Russia. With this Russia can't cut the supply and reduce their economic supply into nation.

[carlfebz2]

Speaking with replacing or alternative supplies then theres just no way.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/08/analysts-say-alternative-supplies-wouldnt-be-able-to-fully-replace-russian-oil.html

Somehow EU can wean itself off on next 6 months.
https://fortune.com/2022/03/08/eu-russian-gas-supply-wean-block-ban-iea/

So it would be still ample time?

[bittraffic]

Greta loses the fight if they all open their coal power plant. Biden had a deal with Iran I guess that will make up the Russian oil and gas. Saudi seems to be hostile to US these days after Biden criticized them. I doubt it will be as cheap as Russian gas but it will make the business run somehow. What is to be speculated recently was the EV cars to be valuable but still, it needs energy. And energy comes from gas still despite having batteries.

Until now, no one has been able to claim that they can replace Russia as a gas supplier in Europe, but the solutions that are given for the future if Russia really stops gas supply are using steam and coal.

Their is no fixed statement was made by European nation.Most of the country was depends on Russia for an Gas Supply.Country like India had made agreement with Russia for the supply of Gas from Russia under earth.So we had only option to hold for the End of War.Even depend on Gas Supply many nations including EU had put an economic sanction on the Russia. With this Russia can't cut the supply and reduce their economic supply into nation.

Europe will also face the consequences of the ban. I already felt the price of gas just today I bought $10 worth of gas its just 5.25 liters. Back in 2019 I could have 11 liters.

[Wind_FURY]

Greta loses the fight if they all open their coal power plant.

Do people really listen to her? She talks, but is she, and people like her, willing to take the economic sacrifices to truly save the environment?

Biden had a deal with Iran I guess that will make up the Russian oil and gas. Saudi seems to be hostile to US these days after Biden criticized them. I doubt it will be as cheap as Russian gas but it will make the business run somehow. What is to be speculated recently was the EV cars to be valuable but still, it needs energy. And energy comes from gas still despite having batteries.

The U.S. sanctioned Iran, and will now talk to Iran? I believe Iran will be in control, and wait until gas prices in the U.S. is more than $15 per gallon.

[Rockstarguy]

Saudi Arabia can also be next to replace Russia in supply of gas. Saudi Arabia is one of the top.oil and gas producing countries, apart Saudi Arabia their some africa countries that are rich in gas that can also be a better option to the European countries.  If Russia stops the supply of gas to the European countries, Russia will also be affected too, I think it will affect Russia more. The European countries can replace Russia from gas supply, and has nothing to lose about it.

[stepwilli]

Finding an immediate replacement is really tough. Based on the oil production among the European countries, there is none with the production ability of Russia. Right now Arabian Countries can take the place of Russia. In specific countries like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, etc will make use of the situation making their country super rich increasing the oil price

It can be hard at first because the pressure is still there, they need to act and find an immediate alternative so that the production continues. They are also worried because available countries might not have enough supply but I think later on they can calm down and think of a more effective way how to combat the issue.

It's not that other countries are using the situation to get an advantage but they are also helpful, it's not bad to increase the prices since the demand is high and why would Africa be insecure? And if they have a lack of infrastructure, they can always ask for help to solve this issue it in exchange for the oil/gas.

[Mometaskers]

I don't know if anyone can supply the vast amount Europe is buying from Russia but I suppose they can build new pipelines towards some Gulf States. China is doing the same to avoid heavily relying on shipping so it makes sense for Europe to do the same.

Thing is, that's unlikely to be completed soon, those can take years to set up. In the meantime they might have to fire up some coal. What I'm seeing is that they could start relying more on nuclear plants. I don't think many Western European countries are lucky enough like Norway to get their energy from geothermal.

[stompix]

I don't think many Western European countries are lucky enough like Norway to get their energy from geothermal.

Norway has zero geothermal power plants, and there are zero actual plans on building anything other than small-scale local projects, the ground below Norway is simply not suitable for it. Besides Norway has a ton of gas and oil, thereby are the last ones to be affected by this.

Speaking with replacing or alternative supplies then theres just no way.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/08/analysts-say-alternative-supplies-wouldnt-be-able-to-fully-replace-russian-oil.html

Everyone looks at this from the wrong side ignoring one major fact.

If Europe stops buying Russian oil, will Russia stop selling oil altogether? No, of course not.
It will sell oil to other countries that don't sanction it at a discount from the current providers while the countries that sold previously now have to look for another client, which will be Europe.

For example, China imports 2 million barrels from Russia, 2 from Saudi Arabia, and 1,5 each from Angola and Iraq.
If China would import 5 more million from Russia it would have no need for Saudi Arabia, Angola, and Iraq, so what are those countries going to sell their oil to?

Besides, all Europe has to do is pay 10$ extra for a barrel of oil then other countries, let's see who can afford to pay more, India or the EU.

[coolcoinz]

Indeed, all countries know that Russia is the largest country that supplies gas to Europe, there are at least four other countries that continue to distribute gas to Europe.
You can see below.
From where do we import energy?


Although the percentage is much different from Russia, Europe can still enjoy gas from other countries, apart from Russia, of course Europe must limit gas users in each region to meet the existing supply.

Negative effect if russia no longer sends gas to europe, definitely especially for big companies that need a lot of gas, that's the war of all parties, feel the loss.

You don't need that much natural gas. My parents and grandparents barely ever used gas at the house. We became more dependent on it because Russia was selling cheap and we took it for granted.
In the 70s and 80s many homes (especially in the South and south-east of Europe) relied on electricity and wood/coal for heating. Each home either had a coal/wood kitchen oven used for heating and cooking and this was supplied by an electric water boiler and an electric oven for use during warm months, when you didn't need to heat the house.

I'm not saying we have to completely resign from gas, but cutting the supply by half wouldn't be a problem in many regions of the EU. If the governments managed to divert the money spent on buying gas from Russia into building power plants and decreasing the cost of energy, people would start to switch to electric heating by themselves because it's safer, cleaner, easier to install and manage. Gas furnaces need to be inspected and cleaned every year. You don't have to do that with electric heaters.

[teosanru]

There are suspicions that Russia might fight back by shutting gas supply to the West. Some sources confirmed that the US is already in talks with Qatar to become Russia’s substitute.  
 
But Qatar and other oil and gas producing nations confirmed that they will not be able to provide substantial amounts of gas to replace Russia’s supply.
 
African countries have been tipped as the best option because the continent has some of the world’s deepest gas reserves. But Africa might not replace Russia because of insecurity and lack of infrastructures.

Who will replace Russia?

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/3/1/analysis-can-african-gas-replace-russian-supplies-to-europe

Trade is a two way deal, if Russia won't sell natural gas to Europe where will it sell all the Natural gas that it has? It'll be a great loss on its foreign exchange reserves, chances are once things return to normal the sanctions will be taken back by the West and Russia too will restart the supply of gas but just in case it doesn't. This will be a great opportunity for the African countries to develop it's infrastructure, they will even get a lot of support from the west and can easily become a the new natural gas supplier of the world pretty easily.