Who will Replace Russian Gas Supplies to Europe?

[tyz]

Renewable energy should just be a better alternative other than stretching the African nations that don't have enough for their own sustainability. So far in terms of oil production, availability and supplies Russians cannot be replaced the only way to avoid direct deals with Russian oil is to source for alternative sources like Renewable energy or energy from waste products since electricity will be too expensive

Well, I am a friend of renewable energy but I am also realistic. Europe, with its enormous hunger for energy, cannot supply itself alone. The only option would be nuclear energy, but it is neither renewable, nor does it produce radioactive waste, and it would continue to depend on uranium and plutonium from other countries. Only when hydrogen can be produced at an acceptable economic rate can Europe become energy independent, but I fear that will take a while.

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[Rasa nanas]

Renewable energy should just be a better alternative other than stretching the African nations that don't have enough for their own sustainability. So far in terms of oil production, availability and supplies Russians cannot be replaced the only way to avoid direct deals with Russian oil is to source for alternative sources like Renewable energy or energy from waste products since electricity will be too expensive

but finding alternative energy to replace energy such as oil or natural gas is not easy, there must be further research and of course it takes a long time and is expensive. Moreover the latest energy which will be an alternative does not necessarily have the same level of efficiency as the energy that exists today.

[DrBeer]

There will be alternatives but it will not happen that fast. It will be very costly too. There will be a lot of discussions to environmentalists and various stakeholders. There's geopolitical issues too that need resolutions like Algerian gas going Europe but most likely needs to pass thru Morocco.

The fact that Germany will be spending billions of dollars to fast-track their LNG terminals means it needs to be utilized for many years to come to cover its cost. I wonder what will be the future of Russia once Europe becomes free from its gas. More wars? Maybe more Russian aggression in order to salvage favorable economic deals? And NATO can freely move against Russia too.    

1. China. This is the most energy-deficient country in the world, China made its impressive economic breakthrough on cheap coal, the reserves of which are now severely depleted. China needs a lot of energy, much more than Germany, and Russia has a surplus. In January 2022, an agreement was reached on the construction of the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline for 50 billion cubic meters per year (like Nord Stream 2). Also, LNG terminals have been actively built in the Far East for several years, with a focus on the Southeast Asian market. The Power of Siberia gas pipeline with a capacity of 38 billion cubic meters per year has been in operation since 2019.

2. Domestic market. For many years, Gazprom has been export-oriented, often to the detriment of domestic consumers. Russia is a huge country with a harsh climate and there is still great potential for gasification of private households. Recently, one of the branches of Nord Stream 2 was reoriented from Europe to gasification of the North-West of Russia (Karelia, etc).

Do not worry about Russia, it is much easier to deal with excess energy than with energy shortages. Europe's withdrawal from Russian gas would be a disaster for Russia in 2014, but not in 2022 - Russia has done a lot to diversify during this time. But what Europe has been doing all this time is not entirely clear to me.

1. The power of Siberia. In reality, the project can perform in comedy shows I won't tell you what the statements were and what the reality is, right?
Before the problems of 2021-2022, until Russia started having problems with gas supplies (and as you know, Russia has nowhere to store gas that is not redeemed), it began to look for ways to dispose of it. Otherwise, just either burn or conserve the deposits. This is where Siberia's potency came in handy. Why impotence - well, let's tell us what is the content of the declared 50 billion cubic meters, for which the contract was supposedly signed, but I won't say anything for now So, since Siberian impotence was essentially idle (no, no, some kind of gas was pumped through it, not 100% simple, but also far from the volumes under the "100% signed contract"), there was nowhere to put gas, a way out was quickly found - "fraternal China helped." I agreed to buy a certain amount of gas at the price of the market minus 30% That's all the deflated power of Siberia. Now, of course, the loading will go - it’s necessary to sell gas at a dumping price, which the EU refuses! But the payback period of the project flies to infinity

2. Of course, to the detriment of the domestic market, this has always been the case. I remember that in Krasnodar, my aunt lived almost in the very center of the city. Red Street. In 1982-1990, I personally remember how they suffered with bottled gas. Either it is not there, then it barely burns (diluted wildly). And I know that before she moved to a new apartment (about 2000+), there were problems with gas ... This is practice. And it's not deep...
Well, if almost half of the populated territories do not know what normal gasification is! Do you really want to say that now they will drop everything and pull pipelines through depressive, degrading regions?! I'm ready to be patient and watch this new "Santa Barbara", but I'm afraid that this will be the longest and really endless series

[bitgov]

Renewable energy should just be a better alternative other than stretching the African nations that don't have enough for their own sustainability. So far in terms of oil production, availability and supplies Russians cannot be replaced the only way to avoid direct deals with Russian oil is to source for alternative sources like Renewable energy or energy from waste products since electricity will be too expensive

but finding alternative energy to replace energy such as oil or natural gas is not easy, there must be further research and of course it takes a long time and is expensive. Moreover the latest energy which will be an alternative does not necessarily have the same level of efficiency as the energy that exists today.

World cannot shut doors to Russia - No other country can full fill the supply of oil. It is one of the largest oil producing country.
And America has done a great role to pull all the strings to weaken Russia. US has done so much damage to the world than Russia. I support peace - and Russia should stop all the brutality to the Ukraine.

[Sithara007]

World cannot shut doors to Russia - No other country can full fill the supply of oil. It is one of the largest oil producing country.
And America has done a great role to pull all the strings to weaken Russia. US has done so much damage to the world than Russia. I support peace - and Russia should stop all the brutality to the Ukraine.

The United States is a net exporter of LNG and it produces almost all the crude oil that is produced inside its borders. The United States is not actually weakening Russia. As a result of skyrocketing prices, Russia is witnessing an increase in profits and revenues although they are exporting less amount of oil and gas. And at the same time some of the shale gas producers in the United States have refrained from ramping up their production, for unknown reasons. For whatever reason, the Americans are playing a very negative role here.

[sana54210]

a few days ago, the Hungarian and Slovak governments stated the above...

in fact, Europe has lived for years with Russian oil and gas so finding a replacement will take a lot of time and a lot of money. Russia's superiority in its oil and gas cannot be denied, the surrounding countries are already dependent on it so it is almost impossible to find a substitute for Russian oil and gas in the near future.

Yes, both countries are among the most dependent on Russian gas in Europe. But it does not have to last several years. Germany, for example, has reduced its gas dependence on Russia from 25% to 12% within a few months, with the goal of halving it again by winter.

That "drop" is caused by two things and every nation could follow the same road as well. One of them is the fact that we have seen Germany decrease dependence by using less, they didn't need to use gas, but it was easy and available so they used it in some places, switch that to another method and you should drop it, not all the things you use gas for is a "must" gas usage thing.

Secondly they are getting it from other places now, not like Russia is the only nation, most famously Qatar has a ton as well. All of Europe, or even all of the world could end up doing this, and it would allow them to get better and depend a lot less on Russia.

[be.open]

And at the same time some of the shale gas producers in the United States have refrained from ramping up their production, for unknown reasons.

Shale oil producers in the US got a very painful disappointment a few years ago when oil was cheap and shale oil production became unprofitable. Now it's profitable again, but investment is in no hurry to return to the industry, because the "greens" in the US and Europe now have a very strong lobby. Their favorite mantra is renewable energy and they are full of contempt for fossil energy sources.

[Sithara007]

And at the same time some of the shale gas producers in the United States have refrained from ramping up their production, for unknown reasons.

Shale oil producers in the US got a very painful disappointment a few years ago when oil was cheap and shale oil production became unprofitable. Now it's profitable again, but investment is in no hurry to return to the industry, because the "greens" in the US and Europe now have a very strong lobby. Their favorite mantra is renewable energy and they are full of contempt for fossil energy sources.

I don't understand these Green wankers and the losers who vote for them. They call themselves as the "Green Party" and in realty they have banned one of the most environmentally friendly source of energy (nuclear). Then they ruin the natural beauty by installing wind power turbines and solar panels stretching across thousands of acres of pristine land. And in case of Biden and the Democrats, it is another issue altogether. They want higher prices, so that their friends in Saudi Arabia and Qatar can benefit out of it.

[DrBeer]

The issue of replacing an inadequate supplier will be resolved fairly quickly in terms of gas as well. For example, oil, which will soon fall under the embargo, may be replaced in the near future by Iran.
"Iran is preparing to launch the country's largest oil field and could double its exports of 'black gold' to meet global demand," Moshen Hojastehmer, managing director of NOC (National Oil Company), said.
According to him, in the coming months, NOC plans to sign agreements with banks to finance the project to develop the second phase of the Azadegan field, which has reserves of 32 billion barrels and is one of the five largest on the planet.
For comparison: all of Russia's reserves are estimated at 100 billion barrels, while the Ministry of Energy considers only a third of them profitable.

[be.open]

The issue of replacing an inadequate supplier will be resolved fairly quickly in terms of gas as well. For example, oil, which will soon fall under the embargo, may be replaced in the near future by Iran.
"Iran is preparing to launch the country's largest oil field and could double its exports of 'black gold' to meet global demand," Moshen Hojastehmer, managing director of NOC (National Oil Company), said.
According to him, in the coming months, NOC plans to sign agreements with banks to finance the project to develop the second phase of the Azadegan field, which has reserves of 32 billion barrels and is one of the five largest on the planet.
For comparison: all of Russia's reserves are estimated at 100 billion barrels, while the Ministry of Energy considers only a third of them profitable.

Are you serious?

Iran is one of Russia's strategic partners with many joint projects, including in the field of oil production and oil refining. Even if you factor out the sanctions generously imposed by the West on Iran, by buying oil from Iran you are also indirectly buying oil from Russia. Venezuela has a similar story.

Russia's oil embargo has failed, Europe cannot agree on and accept the sixth package of sanctions. Europe has already reached its sanctions limit, further escalation of sanctions against Russia harms Europe itself more than Russia. And Europe will also have to pay for gas in rubles, European companies hastily open accounts with Gazprombank.

[bittraffic]

The issue of replacing an inadequate supplier will be resolved fairly quickly in terms of gas as well. For example, oil, which will soon fall under the embargo, may be replaced in the near future by Iran.
"Iran is preparing to launch the country's largest oil field and could double its exports of 'black gold' to meet global demand," Moshen Hojastehmer, managing director of NOC (National Oil Company), said.
According to him, in the coming months, NOC plans to sign agreements with banks to finance the project to develop the second phase of the Azadegan field, which has reserves of 32 billion barrels and is one of the five largest on the planet.
For comparison: all of Russia's reserves are estimated at 100 billion barrels, while the Ministry of Energy considers only a third of them profitable.

Are you serious?

Iran is one of Russia's strategic partners with many joint projects, including in the field of oil production and oil refining. Even if you factor out the sanctions generously imposed by the West on Iran, by buying oil from Iran you are also indirectly buying oil from Russia. Venezuela has a similar story.

Russia's oil embargo has failed, Europe cannot agree on and accept the sixth package of sanctions. Europe has already reached its sanctions limit, further escalation of sanctions against Russia harms Europe itself more than Russia.

Its not possible. Same with Saudi Arabia who is not cooperative right now to US. These are countries oppressed for several years, they are not coming to rescue anyone.  After Biden bad mouthed Saudi prince, these are proud people its not easy to tamed him anymore.

These countries realized energy is the most needed to keep an economy of their own. It maybe possible that Iran or Saudi will also demand to buy oil from them using their currency like Russia did.

[pooya87]

People keep suggesting Iran in this topic but they just focus on the capacity Iran has and some random statements published in the media. I don't think it is going to happen for a single reason: lack of incentive.

Iran simply has no reason to replace Russian gas in Europe because years ago the plan to export gas to EU was on the table and the incentive was also there for Iran since the economy was a lot smaller than today but EU didn't agree with it for reasons that are off-topic here.
Today Iran's exports are at an all time high and the cost of energy is rapidly rising which means the energy parts of exports Iran already has are generating a lot more money already.

However, I think it will eventually happen. Maybe in a year from now when the incentive is massive and energy prices have reached the highest they can.
It's basically like JCPOA, when US abandoned it in 2018 Iran already had the upper hand shortly after but the come back was prolonged to gain even a higher upper hand (From 3.67% enrichment to 60% with a massive stockpile). The agreement still won't be reached since Iran's position keeps getting stronger so an even bigger incentive is required!

Not to mention that Iran's strategy was changed in 2019 from Maximum Resistance to Maximum Pressure. The shoe is on the other foot

[DrBeer]

The issue of replacing an inadequate supplier will be resolved fairly quickly in terms of gas as well. For example, oil, which will soon fall under the embargo, may be replaced in the near future by Iran.
"Iran is preparing to launch the country's largest oil field and could double its exports of 'black gold' to meet global demand," Moshen Hojastehmer, managing director of NOC (National Oil Company), said.
According to him, in the coming months, NOC plans to sign agreements with banks to finance the project to develop the second phase of the Azadegan field, which has reserves of 32 billion barrels and is one of the five largest on the planet.
For comparison: all of Russia's reserves are estimated at 100 billion barrels, while the Ministry of Energy considers only a third of them profitable.

Are you serious?

Iran is one of Russia's strategic partners with many joint projects, including in the field of oil production and oil refining. Even if you factor out the sanctions generously imposed by the West on Iran, by buying oil from Iran you are also indirectly buying oil from Russia. Venezuela has a similar story.

Russia's oil embargo has failed, Europe cannot agree on and accept the sixth package of sanctions. Europe has already reached its sanctions limit, further escalation of sanctions against Russia harms Europe itself more than Russia. And Europe will also have to pay for gas in rubles, European companies hastily open accounts with Gazprombank.

Quite seriously! And China, according to Russia's fantasies, was a "fraternal people", and Iran ... But they, China, Iran, Venezuela, in the end choose leaders and not losers, who are now globally represented by Russia with their tantrums and empty threats. What is more profitable for Iran - to receive dummies called rubles for its oil or to lift sanctions and receive a dollar for gas and oil? Or do you think they are all idiots? Of course, these countries will choose a more advantageous position and offer! To begin with, answer a simple question - if China is such an "anti-Western partner" of Russia, why does it buy gas from Russia on its own terms and not at market prices? Try to give a logical explanation? Look forward to !

[be.open]

Quite seriously! And China, according to Russia's fantasies, was a "fraternal people", and Iran ... But they, China, Iran, Venezuela, in the end choose leaders and not losers, who are now globally represented by Russia with their tantrums and empty threats. What is more profitable for Iran - to receive dummies called rubles for its oil or to lift sanctions and receive a dollar for gas and oil? Or do you think they are all idiots? Of course, these countries will choose a more advantageous position and offer! To begin with, answer a simple question - if China is such an "anti-Western partner" of Russia, why does it buy gas from Russia on its own terms and not at market prices? Try to give a logical explanation? Look forward to !

I do not understand the question, what is surprising for you that long-term contracts are usually concluded at a discount to the market price? Your desire to count the money in someone else's pocket is also strange to me.

[Sithara007]

Quite seriously! And China, according to Russia's fantasies, was a "fraternal people", and Iran ... But they, China, Iran, Venezuela, in the end choose leaders and not losers, who are now globally represented by Russia with their tantrums and empty threats. What is more profitable for Iran - to receive dummies called rubles for its oil or to lift sanctions and receive a dollar for gas and oil? Or do you think they are all idiots? Of course, these countries will choose a more advantageous position and offer! To begin with, answer a simple question - if China is such an "anti-Western partner" of Russia, why does it buy gas from Russia on its own terms and not at market prices? Try to give a logical explanation? Look forward to !

I am not residing in Iran or Venezuela. I am a resident of India. And here, we have seen oil and gas imports from Russia skyrocketing. This month, around half a million barrels of Russian crude is arriving at the Indian ports every day (more than 12% of the Indian net imports). Some of this crude is refined in to diesel or gasoline and re-exported to the European Union. I have heard about similar stories from countries such as Indonesia as well.

Source: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/russia-jumps-4th-position-oil-supplier-india-tanker-data-2022-05-17/

Indian imports of crude from Russia (barrels per day):

March 2022: 66,000
April 2022: 277,000
May 2022: 487,500

[BOAEDAN]

If it is true that Russia wants to stop gas supplies to Europe, Iran will most likely take over temporarily, although we know other countries do not have the same power as Russia, but at least they can help other European countries a little, if other countries do not impose excessive sanctions on Russia. In my opinion, Putin will not stop gas supplies to Europe, I hope the Russo-Ukrainian war can end soon, because I really miss peace.

[hichamito37]

If it is true that Russia wants to stop gas supplies to Europe, Iran will most likely take over temporarily, although we know other countries do not have the same power as Russia, but at least they can help other European countries a little, if other countries do not impose excessive sanctions on Russia. In my opinion, Putin will not stop gas supplies to Europe, I hope the Russo-Ukrainian war can end soon, because I really miss peace.

Russia does not want to stop supplying gas to Europe because this is considered its main source of income. If the gas contract is terminated, both sides will suffer heavy losses the victory belongs to no one. No other country can substitute a good supply like Russia for Europe. All are just temporary solutions and there is no other choice.

[bittraffic]

Quite seriously! And China, according to Russia's fantasies, was a "fraternal people", and Iran ... But they, China, Iran, Venezuela, in the end choose leaders and not losers, who are now globally represented by Russia with their tantrums and empty threats. What is more profitable for Iran - to receive dummies called rubles for its oil or to lift sanctions and receive a dollar for gas and oil? Or do you think they are all idiots? Of course, these countries will choose a more advantageous position and offer! To begin with, answer a simple question - if China is such an "anti-Western partner" of Russia, why does it buy gas from Russia on its own terms and not at market prices? Try to give a logical explanation? Look forward to !

I do not understand the question, what is surprising for you that long-term contracts are usually concluded at a discount to the market price? Your desire to count the money in someone else's pocket is also strange to me.

China is a partner of Russia, I'm not sure if we could consider the country an "anti-Russia" but I do think China has its own motive also in supporting Putin's quest. Xi would not act if his country isn't also going to benefit.

Russia is much closer to China. Just like India I think its only logical to buy oil from Russia by train than shipping oil from elsewhere. India and China has tons of manufacturing companies that needs gas and oil. Pretty sure they couldn't afford to lose Russia's discounted price.

[DrBeer]

Quite seriously! And China, according to Russia's fantasies, was a "fraternal people", and Iran ... But they, China, Iran, Venezuela, in the end choose leaders and not losers, who are now globally represented by Russia with their tantrums and empty threats. What is more profitable for Iran - to receive dummies called rubles for its oil or to lift sanctions and receive a dollar for gas and oil? Or do you think they are all idiots? Of course, these countries will choose a more advantageous position and offer! To begin with, answer a simple question - if China is such an "anti-Western partner" of Russia, why does it buy gas from Russia on its own terms and not at market prices? Try to give a logical explanation? Look forward to !

I do not understand the question, what is surprising for you that long-term contracts are usually concluded at a discount to the market price? Your desire to count the money in someone else's pocket is also strange to me.

Ok, let's assume that once again you do not slip a fake (although you will surprise me greatly if this is the case )
Then please refer to the information about the "long-term contract for the supply of gas, which the EU refused, between Russia, China and India"?
I remember what kind of hysteria it was when the "impotence of Siberia" was launched - and they say China invested tens of billions, and a contract for 100,500 years, and much more. In fact, it turned out that China did not invest, but lent Russia, at considerable interest and renting huge areas of the taiga to China for 49 years. Oh yes, and how it turned out later that China did not sign the supply agreement on the terms that the Russians habitually lied to, deceiving themselves
In total, it’s not an investment, but a loan + deforestation, and a contract, but a small amount of gas, at a price that Russia has classified, which means that China indicated a penny price for Russia, and Russia agreed. This is not a discount, this is a coercion of a strong player in relation to a weak one
And so - I'm waiting for links to information about long-term contracts Russia-China, Russia-India for gas supplies. Any source except Russian, of course

UPD Yes, and of course the contracts signed after the start of a new phase of the terrorist war in Ukraine, after which there were problems with the sale of gas to the EU. That is, there is no need to issue any old contracts, for contracts under which gas supplies to China and India began last month

[bitgov]

And so - I'm waiting for links to information about long-term contracts Russia-China, Russia-India for gas supplies. Any source except Russian, of course

UPD Yes, and of course the contracts signed after the start of a new phase of the terrorist war in Ukraine, after which there were problems with the sale of gas to the EU. That is, there is no need to issue any old contracts, for contracts under which gas supplies to China and India began last month

At first place it is silly thought that someone else will fulfill supply of gas and oil. There is no alternative and world has to rethink on getting good terms with Russia.
Every country tried to put sanction on Russia. What if Russia halt the oil and gas supply to the world? Every nation has their agenda. I am not sure if this silly decision of cutting the terms with Russia would work.