Who will Replace Russian Gas Supplies to Europe?

[pooya87]

People said Trump was not a good administer - but I liked Trump. He was far better than Biden.

It has always been like this that people think the past was better, that's why concepts such as nostalgia exist. In a couple of years from now when Trump comes back and the American Empire falls apart some more, you are going to say Senile Joe was a better president

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[Smitty Werben Man Jensen]

People said Trump was not a good administer - but I liked Trump. He was far better than Biden.

It has always been like this that people think the past was better, that's why concepts such as nostalgia exist. In a couple of years from now when Trump comes back and the American Empire falls apart some more, you are going to say Senile Joe was a better president

Regardless of what it actually is, everyone is free to have their own opinion regarding the president.
and that's a common thing as long as there's no hate speech,
we also have to be fair in judging Joe Biden by judging him at the end of his term

[bitgov]

People said Trump was not a good administer - but I liked Trump. He was far better than Biden.

It has always been like this that people think the past was better, that's why concepts such as nostalgia exist. In a couple of years from now when Trump comes back and the American Empire falls apart some more, you are going to say Senile Joe was a better president

Regardless of what it actually is, everyone is free to have their own opinion regarding the president.
and that's a common thing as long as there's no hate speech,
we also have to be fair in judging Joe Biden by judging him at the end of his term

PUtin in smart - he knows that the world will be in trouble with our oil, gas and wheat. So nothing would happen to them if the whole world would turn against them.
They can take care of themselves as they have strong defence too. So I think EU should act wisely and try to solve the issue through dialogue.

[DrBeer]

People said Trump was not a good administer - but I liked Trump. He was far better than Biden.

It has always been like this that people think the past was better, that's why concepts such as nostalgia exist. In a couple of years from now when Trump comes back and the American Empire falls apart some more, you are going to say Senile Joe was a better president

Regardless of what it actually is, everyone is free to have their own opinion regarding the president.
and that's a common thing as long as there's no hate speech,
we also have to be fair in judging Joe Biden by judging him at the end of his term

PUtin in smart - he knows that the world will be in trouble with our oil, gas and wheat. So nothing would happen to them if the whole world would turn against them.
They can take care of themselves as they have strong defence too. So I think EU should act wisely and try to solve the issue through dialogue.

"They can take care of themselves." Well, let's assume. Then the question is - why haven't they taken care of it for 20 years?
Some of the simplest statistics for 20 years:
Changes since 2000 in Russia
-Schools
Was: 68 100
Now: 40 800
- Hospitals
Was: 10 700
Now: 5 100
-Emergency housing
Before: 9.5 million sq. m
Now: 25.5 million sq. m
- Officials
Before: 1,161,500
Now: 2 327 623
-Billionaires (synonymous with "Putin's friend")
Was: 0
Now: 83


PS and most importantly - in addition to resources, the demand for which may quite realistically decrease, Russia has nothing more. Or can you name something created in Russia that the world cannot do without? Well, at least 1 example?

Developed countries are developing new technologies, backward ones are trading in what they can dig ... with the help of Western technologies )

[pooya87]

PUtin in smart - he knows that the world will be in trouble with our oil, gas and wheat. So nothing would happen to them if the whole world would turn against them.

The bold parts are where you are wrong.
The reason why Russia doesn't care about the sanctions is because the "whole" world is not turning against them. Essentially what you see today is the result of decades of stupid policies in the West. Did you even know that at some point Putin wanted to join NATO!!! They showed him the middle finger.
Then they couldn't even create any alliance against Russia or China for that matter, not just that they created more enemies among countries that could have helped oppose Russia hence creating a polarized world where 2 blocs are created each opposing the other.

Take Iran for example. It has the largest existing oil tanker fleet with the biggest capacity and also has one of the largest oil and gas reserves.
What's the relationship of the West with Iran? terrible
What's the relationship of Iran with the East? best. In fact the biggest Chinese economic plan (one belt one road) is possibly only because of Iran which is also a member of SCO, the biggest economical alliance in the world.

Imagine if EU was independent and never listened to US and improved relations with Iran more than a decade ago. That simply meant they would have never been mainly relying on Russian energy and Russia could have never used it as a weapon against them!
Even today EU has to desperately buy Iranian oil at a much higher market price since they are buying it through middle men. Fun fact: the Iranian tanker that Greece stupidly seized (that led to 2 Greek tankers being seized by Iran) was carrying Russian oil to Western Europe.

[be.open]

"They can take care of themselves." Well, let's assume. Then the question is - why haven't they taken care of it for 20 years?
Some of the simplest statistics for 20 years:
Changes since 2000 in Russia
-Schools
Was: 68 100
Now: 40 800
- Hospitals
Was: 10 700
Now: 5 100
-Emergency housing
Before: 9.5 million sq. m
Now: 25.5 million sq. m
- Officials
Before: 1,161,500
Now: 2 327 623
-Billionaires (synonymous with "Putin's friend")
Was: 0
Now: 83


PS and most importantly - in addition to resources, the demand for which may quite realistically decrease, Russia has nothing more. Or can you name something created in Russia that the world cannot do without? Well, at least 1 example?

Developed countries are developing new technologies, backward ones are trading in what they can dig ... with the help of Western technologies )

For the past eight years, Russia has been intensively preparing for the current operation to demilitarize Ukraine, spending up to a third of its consolidated budget on rearmament of the army. What is really strange for me is why Europe has not reduced, but even increased its energy dependence on Russia during this time?

[Cryptock]

"They can take care of themselves." Well, let's assume. Then the question is - why haven't they taken care of it for 20 years?
Some of the simplest statistics for 20 years:
Changes since 2000 in Russia
-Schools
Was: 68 100
Now: 40 800
- Hospitals
Was: 10 700
Now: 5 100
-Emergency housing
Before: 9.5 million sq. m
Now: 25.5 million sq. m
- Officials
Before: 1,161,500
Now: 2 327 623
-Billionaires (synonymous with "Putin's friend")
Was: 0
Now: 83


PS and most importantly - in addition to resources, the demand for which may quite realistically decrease, Russia has nothing more. Or can you name something created in Russia that the world cannot do without? Well, at least 1 example?

Developed countries are developing new technologies, backward ones are trading in what they can dig ... with the help of Western technologies )

For the past eight years, Russia has been intensively preparing for the current operation to demilitarize Ukraine, spending up to a third of its consolidated budget on rearmament of the army. What is really strange for me is why Europe has not reduced, but even increased its energy dependence on Russia during this time?

What is the source of the info you have shared here?
To me it is also strange for me- Russia had plans as mentioned above, and they desperately wanted to do what they have done now.
But his has brought very serious consequences on Ukraine as well as on the whole world.

[DrBeer]

"They can take care of themselves." Well, let's assume. Then the question is - why haven't they taken care of it for 20 years?
Some of the simplest statistics for 20 years:
Changes since 2000 in Russia
-Schools
Was: 68 100
Now: 40 800
- Hospitals
Was: 10 700
Now: 5 100
-Emergency housing
Before: 9.5 million sq. m
Now: 25.5 million sq. m
- Officials
Before: 1,161,500
Now: 2 327 623
-Billionaires (synonymous with "Putin's friend")
Was: 0
Now: 83


PS and most importantly - in addition to resources, the demand for which may quite realistically decrease, Russia has nothing more. Or can you name something created in Russia that the world cannot do without? Well, at least 1 example?

Developed countries are developing new technologies, backward ones are trading in what they can dig ... with the help of Western technologies )

For the past eight years, Russia has been intensively preparing for the current operation to demilitarize Ukraine, spending up to a third of its consolidated budget on rearmament of the army. What is really strange for me is why Europe has not reduced, but even increased its energy dependence on Russia during this time?

The answer is extremely simple - a corrupt, corrupt, or mired in compromising evidence, European lobby like Merkel, Sarkozy and other Orbans. These are people who have made the most of their efforts to ensure that Russia gains a foothold in the European oil and gas market, and gas and oil have become, in fact, levers of influence on entire countries! And many continue to do so to this day. Honor, conscience, moral and ethical principles, universal values, for many European politicians - is an empty phrase. And they are even proud of the status of a Kremlin prostitute! I think that Britain did not just leave this "union"

[uneng]

Germany is planning to build LNG terminals on their territory to replace the supply of russian gas demanded by the country and maybe will be able to export part of the production to another countries. That is a necessary measure that is advancing fastly in the political sphere in order to execute the project sooner as possible, because Europe is in a hurry. I hope their plans work until a definitive solution can be found, since it's not possible to rely on LNG forever, since it's a finite source of energy (non-sustainable). Besides this disadvantage, another one is the fact LNG terminals are expensive to be built, so a huge investment is needed, but I guess it's not an issue at all for european bureaucrats.

If the plan works as expected, dependance on russian gas will decrease from 55% to 10% by 2024.
LNG revolution: Germany’s plan to wean itself off Russian gas takes shape

[n0ne]

Germany is planning to build LNG terminals on their territory to replace the supply of russian gas demanded by the country and maybe will be able to export part of the production to another countries. That is a necessary measure that is advancing fastly in the political sphere in order to execute the project sooner as possible, because Europe is in a hurry. I hope their plans work until a definitive solution can be found, since it's not possible to rely on LNG forever, since it's a finite source of energy (non-sustainable). Besides this disadvantage, another one is the fact LNG terminals are expensive to be built, so a huge investment is needed, but I guess it's not an issue at all for european bureaucrats.

If the plan works as expected, dependance on russian gas will decrease from 55% to 10% by 2024.
LNG revolution: Germany’s plan to wean itself off Russian gas takes shape

Not only Germany, every country have made plans of creating renewable energy production, but this can't be made to happen in a short. For the immediate need it is must to depend on the oil wealthy country. It looks like Russia have profited more than 20% out of oil amidst the war. Germany made some requests to Middle East countries to increase the supply, and they weren't able to fulfill as the natural gas terminals isn't available. Not this is getting fast phase construction. Following Germany more countries will do it.

[CaVO32]

Germany is planning to build LNG terminals on their territory to replace the supply of russian gas demanded by the country and maybe will be able to export part of the production to another countries. That is a necessary measure that is advancing fastly in the political sphere in order to execute the project sooner as possible, because Europe is in a hurry. I hope their plans work until a definitive solution can be found, since it's not possible to rely on LNG forever, since it's a finite source of energy (non-sustainable). Besides this disadvantage, another one is the fact LNG terminals are expensive to be built, so a huge investment is needed, but I guess it's not an issue at all for european bureaucrats.

If the plan works as expected, dependance on russian gas will decrease from 55% to 10% by 2024.
LNG revolution: Germany’s plan to wean itself off Russian gas takes shape

Not only Germany, every country have made plans of creating renewable energy production, but this can't be made to happen in a short. For the immediate need it is must to depend on the oil wealthy country. It looks like Russia have profited more than 20% out of oil amidst the war. Germany made some requests to Middle East countries to increase the supply, and they weren't able to fulfill as the natural gas terminals isn't available. Not this is getting fast phase construction. Following Germany more countries will do it.

This for me is a good outcome of this war, because countries which are heavily relying on Russian gas are now thinking of alternative options for them. In the very near future, Russia will see that many of these countries are now self-sufficient. This will also tap the resources of the country itself, which are not yet optimized. At least, it will give them the edge in the oil market. I hope Russia will realize soon enough that this war won't be giving benefits on them.

[Hispo]

There have been rumors and news about the possibility that Biden administration is willing to lift some sanctions so Venezuela can export oil to Europe.

https://www.businessinsider.com/oil-from-venezuela-to-help-replace-russian-crude-reuters-reports-2022-6

Now, this first step was taken so Venezuela can pay a debt with oil shipped to Europe, however, this may be the beginning of a deal between USA an Venezuela to supply even more energy to the old continent, in order to replace Russian gas.

This would result in a weird situation for Venezuela, since we have relatively close diplomatic relations with Russia and perhaps if this government (Nicolas Maduro) seeks blindly the profit and acceptance of USA, the Russia-Venezuela relations could result hurt.

[be.open]

The answer is extremely simple - a corrupt, corrupt, or mired in compromising evidence, European lobby like Merkel, Sarkozy and other Orbans. These are people who have made the most of their efforts to ensure that Russia gains a foothold in the European oil and gas market, and gas and oil have become, in fact, levers of influence on entire countries! And many continue to do so to this day. Honor, conscience, moral and ethical principles, universal values, for many European politicians - is an empty phrase. And they are even proud of the status of a Kremlin prostitute! I think that Britain did not just leave this "union"

You needlessly accuse the former political leaders of Germany and France of corruption, yet these are the leading countries of the European Union with developed democracies. Germany under Merkel was the economic leader and locomotive of the European Union, and Germany under Scholz is now like a worthless hysteria. No steel from Krivoy Rog, no cheap gas from Russia - and all the industrial power of Germany stopped and crumbled to dust. France was asked from Mali, and France now has problems with the supply of uranium for nuclear plants. Several nuclear power plants will have to be mothballed this year due to resource depletion. Europe is facing serious energy starvation in the near future. Cooperation with Russia for Europe is not only a matter of political preferences, but also a matter of well-being, and possibly a matter of survival.

[Sithara007]

There have been rumors and news about the possibility that Biden administration is willing to lift some sanctions so Venezuela can export oil to Europe.

https://www.businessinsider.com/oil-from-venezuela-to-help-replace-russian-crude-reuters-reports-2022-6

Now, this first step was taken so Venezuela can pay a debt with oil shipped to Europe, however, this may be the beginning of a deal between USA an Venezuela to supply even more energy to the old continent, in order to replace Russian gas.

This would result in a weird situation for Venezuela, since we have relatively close diplomatic relations with Russia and perhaps if this government (Nicolas Maduro) seeks blindly the profit and acceptance of USA, the Russia-Venezuela relations could result hurt.

Why don't these western idiots realize that even if Venezuela, Iran and all the GCC nations come onboard, still they won't be able to replace the output from Russia? And I am flabbergasted by this sudden love for countries such as Venezuela. If I am not wrong, the Americans seized a few tons of Venezuelan gold reserves some time back. Since the relations have now warmed up again, are they going to release those reserves? And maybe Biden administration will go up one step further and recognize Nicolás Maduro as the legitimate ruler of Venezuela?

[be.open]

There have been rumors and news about the possibility that Biden administration is willing to lift some sanctions so Venezuela can export oil to Europe.

https://www.businessinsider.com/oil-from-venezuela-to-help-replace-russian-crude-reuters-reports-2022-6

Now, this first step was taken so Venezuela can pay a debt with oil shipped to Europe, however, this may be the beginning of a deal between USA an Venezuela to supply even more energy to the old continent, in order to replace Russian gas.

This would result in a weird situation for Venezuela, since we have relatively close diplomatic relations with Russia and perhaps if this government (Nicolas Maduro) seeks blindly the profit and acceptance of USA, the Russia-Venezuela relations could result hurt.

Why don't these western idiots realize that even if Venezuela, Iran and all the GCC nations come onboard, still they won't be able to replace the output from Russia? And I am flabbergasted by this sudden love for countries such as Venezuela. If I am not wrong, the Americans seized a few tons of Venezuelan gold reserves some time back. Since the relations have now warmed up again, are they going to release those reserves? And maybe Biden administration will go up one step further and recognize Nicolás Maduro as the legitimate ruler of Venezuela?

The US interest in Venezuela and Iran is not accidental; their grade of oil is similar to the Russian grade of heavy oil. Some fuels, such as jet fuel and diesel, are made in refineries that need heavy oil for their processing cycle, and this oil cannot be replaced by light oil from the Middle East.

[pooya87]

LNG revolution: Germany’s plan to wean itself off Russian gas takes shape

Not only Germany, every country have made plans of creating renewable energy production,

LNG is not renewable energy, it is the same fossil fuel (gas) that is converted to liquid so that it can be shipped to another country. This process is complicated and very expensive hence increasing the price of gas that these countries were receiving from Russia!
So I wouldn't jump to conclusion here that this solves the "problems", specially inflation if I were you.

There have been rumors and news about the possibility that Biden administration is willing to lift some sanctions so Venezuela can export oil to Europe.

This is not new, ever since the early days of the conflict US has been sending negotiators to a president they didn't use to even recognize, now he is suddenly the savior that US begs to for oil!
It's not just Venezuela either, not a week goes by without a European envoy contacting Iran to beg for oil and gas.

Why don't these western idiots realize that even if Venezuela, Iran and all the GCC nations come onboard, still they won't be able to replace the output from Russia?

FYI Iran has the 4th largest oil reserves (Russia has 8th) and 2nd largest natural gas reserves (Russia has 1st). Iran's output is already higher than Russia's with more customers than we can handle specially for oil!

[Sithara007]

The US interest in Venezuela and Iran is not accidental; their grade of oil is similar to the Russian grade of heavy oil. Some fuels, such as jet fuel and diesel, are made in refineries that need heavy oil for their processing cycle, and this oil cannot be replaced by light oil from the Middle East.

FYI Iran has the 4th largest oil reserves (Russia has 8th) and 2nd largest natural gas reserves (Russia has 1st). Iran's output is already higher than Russia's with more customers than we can handle specially for oil!

I don't think that Iran's output is higher than Russia. As per the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data of 2021, Russian crude oil output is 10.1 million barrels of crude per day, while that of Iran is 3.11 million barrels. Iran may be able to replace Russian natural gas. But there are no pipelines from Iran to the EU and they don't have any large LNG terminals. Rather than Iran replacing Russian oil, in the recent weeks it has been the reverse scenario. Russian oil has replaced some of the Iranian oil sales to the Asian countries:

https://www.iranintl.com/en/202206072851
https://www.bourseandbazaar.com/articles/2022/5/31/eu-embargo-of-russian-oil-spells-trouble-for-iran

[Pujangga]

I saw news on CNN and CNBC that in this world gas reserves are very few and controlled by only a few countries including Russia, the process of making gas pipelines takes a long time especially now that many places have become residential so it is more difficult to meet gas, something that the most likely is the import of liquefied gas and of course a longer process is required.

[pooya87]

I don't think that Iran's output is higher than Russia.

I was talking about capacity not the output. Iran with 5000 sanctions is obviously exporting less oil than anybody else. Another factor to consider is that again due to sanctions and the fact that Iran doesn't use things like SWIFT for majority of trades (in hundreds of billions) the real export values are unknown and much higher than the publicly available data.

But there are no pipelines from Iran to the EU and they don't have any large LNG terminals.

The problem is not infrastructure since it could be built, the problem is relations. In fact long time ago Iran's gas was supposed to go to EU through Turkey (if I'm not mistaken) but for certain reasons EU decided to rely on Russia alone.

Rather than Iran replacing Russian oil, in the recent weeks it has been the reverse scenario. Russian oil has replaced some of the Iranian oil sales to the Asian countries:

That is pure propaganda, specially if you check out the first source you'll see that it is a Saudi funded propaganda machine.

First of all, as I explained above Iran's export size is unknown so there is no way anybody could make the conclusion about whether it has increased or decreased.

Secondly we have no reason to believe it has decreased since China (which they use as their reasoning) has been increasing its total import for some time, even before the Ukraine invasion.

Finally and this is more important, there has been a fixed supply and increasing demand of oil for years and so far nobody has increased production. So any market that is abandoned by one seller will be filled by another but that other seller has to reduce exports to a third buyer so like a chain they are just switching customers. For example a lot of Iranian oil finds its way to EU markets through third parties and at a higher price so any market that Russia abandoned was partially filled by Iran. Any oil that EU imports from somewhere else means that somewhere else is abandoning another market which again Iran fills. Imagine a crazy big shuffle in the market.
Iran's oil export that is publicly known in May has been 40% higher than May last year. How can it have been replaced if it is increasing?

[galambo]

I don't think that Iran's output is higher than Russia. As per the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data of 2021, Russian crude oil output is 10.1 million barrels of crude per day, while that of Iran is 3.11 million barrels. Iran may be able to replace Russian natural gas. But there are no pipelines from Iran to the EU and they don't have any large LNG terminals. Rather than Iran replacing Russian oil, in the recent weeks it has been the reverse scenario. Russian oil has replaced some of the Iranian oil sales to the Asian countries:

There was a project IPI,  Iran Pakistan India gas pipeline. It was very popular in early 2000s but never kicked off because of usa pressure. Moreover Pakistan is suffering from energy crisis but due to usa influence it is not buying oil and gas from Iran.  Still EU and USA says that Russia is creating problems in this world.