Who will Replace Russian Gas Supplies to Europe?

[pooya87]

the Qatari gas as a possible alternative to Russian gas, and how there is a big crisis for the passage of a pipeline from Qatar through Iraq or Syria

In order to construct the infrastructure to transfer gas from Qatar to anywhere you first need security and stability. The route doesn't have any security because of one reason: United States

Iraq was destabilized the day US invaded the country, removed its government that despite all its dictatorship and crimes was keeping Iraq stable and safe, destroyed its infrastructure (pipelines, oil facilities, power plants,...) and military (that could provide security), etc. It kept becoming more destabilized as US spread separatism there and northern Iraq basically claimed independence and has not been answering to the central power in Iraq for years.
Same with Syria, the situation kept getting worse as US kept attacking and expanded its military presence there currently stealing their oil. (I don't see anybody talking about how Syrian oil that US is stealing could be transferred to EU!).
Both countries were destabilized more as Turkey with the help of US waged its war against Kurdish people in the region and started their genocide while interestingly enough never attacking the separatists Kurds in Iraq!
That's not even to mention the US backed terrorists that run rampant in the region.

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[coupable]

the Qatari gas as a possible alternative to Russian gas, and how there is a big crisis for the passage of a pipeline from Qatar through Iraq or Syria

In order to construct the infrastructure to transfer gas from Qatar to anywhere you first need security and stability. The route doesn't have any security because of one reason: United States

Iraq was destabilized the day US invaded the country, removed its government that despite all its dictatorship and crimes was keeping Iraq stable and safe, destroyed its infrastructure (pipelines, oil facilities, power plants,...) and military (that could provide security), etc. It kept becoming more destabilized as US spread separatism there and northern Iraq basically claimed independence and has not been answering to the central power in Iraq for years.
Same with Syria, the situation kept getting worse as US kept attacking and expanded its military presence there currently stealing their oil. (I don't see anybody talking about how Syrian oil that US is stealing could be transferred to EU!).
Both countries were destabilized more as Turkey with the help of US waged its war against Kurdish people in the region and started their genocide while interestingly enough never attacking the separatists Kurds in Iraq!
That's not even to mention the US backed terrorists that run rampant in the region.

Well, I almost agree with you on all those points. We can get two possibilities for all that America is doing if we return to the main topic here, which is the supply of gas to Europe ;
The first possibility is that America aspires to cut off Russian gas supplies to Europe, as evidenced by its indirect support for the war on Ukraine (America pushed Ukraine to confront and asked its allies to support it, then abandoned it in exchange for some economic sanctions that directly serve its interest) and at the same time sabotage The way the gas pipeline can pass. America aspires to sell liquefied gas to Europe at a high cost, earning revenues and at the same time isolating Russia by losing its most important market, the European market.
The second possibility is that America is actually seeking to help Europe to give up Russian gas and offer Qatari gas as an alternative. It sought to change the rule in Iraq so that the pipeline would pass, but it failed and repeated the same attempt in Syria, and it is now failing.
I would really like to know your opinion on this.

[pooya87]

Well, I almost agree with you on all those points. We can get two possibilities for all that America is doing if we return to the main topic here, which is the supply of gas to Europe ;
The first possibility is that America aspires to cut off Russian gas supplies to Europe, as evidenced by its indirect support for the war on Ukraine (America pushed Ukraine to confront and asked its allies to support it, then abandoned it in exchange for some economic sanctions that directly serve its interest) and at the same time sabotage The way the gas pipeline can pass. America aspires to sell liquefied gas to Europe at a high cost, earning revenues and at the same time isolating Russia by losing its most important market, the European market.
The second possibility is that America is actually seeking to help Europe to give up Russian gas and offer Qatari gas as an alternative. It sought to change the rule in Iraq so that the pipeline would pass, but it failed and repeated the same attempt in Syria, and it is now failing.
I would really like to know your opinion on this.

IMO it's a very complicated situation.

It all comes down to petrodollar, we know that US dollar's real value is far below its current price simply because it is not backed by anything (whether gold or actual domestic production like China). In other words US economy is massive in size but extremely weak and fragile and if petrodollar dies US could become like North Korea or Venezuela. So in order to keep it strong something has to keep it strong and what is better than other countries being forced to use it as reserve and trade currency. The biggest trades are energy trades namely oil and gas.

Remember that one of the main US policies is security in insecurity or more precisely security of United States in insecurity of others.

Middle East is the biggest source of energy and according to US policy it has to always be chaotic with US favored governments ruling over as much parts of the region as possible. This means US can enforce its policies over the world's energy keeping US dollar alive and strong while keeping the region unsafe to justify its military presence and also to sell arms and make a ton of money.
Hence the invasion of Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Yemen, etc and the wish to eventually invade Iran. And also the colonization of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, etc.
On the other hand EU is the biggest importer of energy and many of the industrialized countries there like Germany heavily depend on imports. At the same time none of them have independence and have to provide US interests.

But the problem with the chaos strategy is that when chaos is created, things get out of hand and become unpredictable. This is why we see Saudis that always obeyed the order to increase then decrease oil price over the past 4 decades suddenly say NO to US when they are asked to decrease the price or when they start selling their oil to China using Yuan instead of Dollar (ie. the grave offense)!
This strategy backfires regularly because chaos is unpredictable. Which is why we see the inflation hitting US hard these days.

What US is doing in this situation is making the best out of the worst situation.
1- They want Russia to be stuck in the war and continue having casualties and become weaker.
2- They want Russian economy to start shrinking since it was recovering before the war.
3- They don't want EU to normalize their relations with Russia to save their countries.
4- They also don't want to lose EU or have the union fall apart.
5- They want to rule Middle East despite the fact that all their plans have fallen apart over the past couple of years (starting in 2018)
6-...
Obviously they can't have all of it, so each of these dreams is only fulfilled partially.
1- Russia is stuck in the war and is having casualties but not as much as US wanted
2- Russian economy was battered but didn't shrink as US wanted, in fact Ruble went up against dollar to a new ATH in 5 years.
3- EU is still buying Russian energy despite US wishes (decreased the purchase)
4- EU is getting weaker so they become more dependent on US but the unrest is growing and the union is not as strong as before. But also their defense budgets grew (which US wanted) and NATO became more active (which again US wanted).
5. The chaos is still ongoing in M.E. which US is trying to handle as best as they can

So for example when it comes to gas, some gas is being sold to EU but not too much to recover their economy. Which is why IMO the fake explosion in US happens that cuts off the LNG exports to EU by 40% IIRC but not entirely. And at the same time that gas is sold domestically decreasing the gas price in US itself.

P.S. On top of all that, a new world order is showing up that decreases US dominance over the world which makes all things even more complicated.

[DrBeer]

a couple of short facts that will answer this question, as well as what a terrorist country will do
1.Not about gas, but about how easy it is to find an alternative to a terrorist country:
- Iraq and Saudi Arabia are increasing oil supplies to Europe, where they are gradually refusing to import Russian energy carriers, Bloomberg writes, after analyzing the tracking data of sea vessels...
https://www.gazeta.ru/business/news/2022/07/23/18184424.shtml
- American shale turns taps. Major US oil companies agree to drastically increase production
The Biden administration made a deal with the oilmen: they promised to increase production by 0.8-1 million barrels per day by the end of the year.

404 The decision to turn off the valves on gas pipelines leading to Europe - the only major market for Gazprom - sent the Russian gas industry into a steep dive.
By the beginning of August, gas production by Gazprom had fallen to its lowest level since at least 2008, Bloomberg notes, citing the company's operational statistics.
In July, according to Gazprom data, its production amounted to 24 billion cubic meters, which is 36% lower than a year earlier. The decline, which began in the spring with the shutdown of the Yamal-Europe pipeline and the shutdown of supplies to countries that refused to pay under the “rouble” scheme, is intensifying every month: in April it was 10% yoy, in May - 14%, in June - 30 %.
The owner of the world's largest gas reserves, which as of 2020 were estimated at $ 9 trillion, Gazprom is killing wells in fields whose raw materials suddenly have nowhere to sell.

https://www.moscowtimes.eu/2022/08/02/dobicha-gaza-v-rossii-ruhnula-do-minimuma-za-14-let-a22850

As some will now notice - no matter how much they shout that "everyone will freeze without Russia", the real problems began precisely with Russia  

[DrBeer]

From this perspective, all wars are absurd, and thus we cancel all those historical narratives about states' strategies and intelligence interests.
Your talk seems logical to a large extent, but it is really difficult for me to accept that a giant authority like Russia, with its arms extended to protect its interests in all parts of the world, takes decisions based on whims and not from an objective study of reality.
And to be frank, I was somewhat convinced that Russia wants to put an end to NATO's presence on its borders by getting its hands on Ukraine as well as protecting its interests from selling gas to Europe. But when I read information about it selling oil for half its price, I really feel that something is missing from my analysis and that things may be much deeper.

Absolutely agree with your assumption. When I tell people who do not live in Russia and Ukraine what Russia is doing, they tell me - "hey guy, stop it! It can't be like that! They're not complete idiots!".
.... But then I turn on Russian channels to them, show documentary footage .. And they sit, with frozen bewilderment on their faces, and say "no ... well, it shouldn't be like that ... This is nonsense!... But so it is!... How can this be?"

Believe me - what seems abnormal to a normal person is the norm in Russia


"And to be frank, I was somewhat convinced that Russia wants to put an end to NATO's presence on its borders by getting its hands on Ukraine as well as protecting its interests from selling gas to Europe." - on this occasion, I say very simple, logical, and, importantly, easily verifiable information: before Russia's terrorist attack on Ukraine, Ukraine had NO PLANS TO JOIN NATO! There was only a desire to switch to new, progressive standards of building an army according to the Western model, instead of the morally, technically and ideologically outdated concept of building an army according to the "Soviet".

It is also easy to prove the lies of other Russian propaganda narratives, just double-check them, and soon you will understand what is actually being built on a LIE!

What kind of nonsense are you talking about? Plans for Ukraine's accession to NATO are enshrined in the Constitution of Ukraine.

Yeah, you decided - the dumber you lie, the more they will believe? I understand that you are from Russia, and your lies are part of the culture and mentality, no offense, but there are simply no other explanations for what you wrote!
So:
1. I wrote that until 2014, when Russia launched a terrorist war against Ukraine (see source text above), Ukraine did not have a decision to join NATO. There were only movements in the direction of moving away from the old and obsolete Soviet weapons and the transition to advanced weapons standards.
And I absolutely say that after 2014, yes, Ukraine took the vector to join NATO! Is everything right here?
2. And now your answer. You tell me that I am writing nonsense (see your original text above), such as evidence, you throw up a link to a bill that allegedly says that this was adopted BEFORE 2014. ! But you throw me an article that says that these changes have been made to ... ATTENTION! In 2018!!! And signed by the President Poroshenko P.A., who was elected to the post of President already AFTER the Russian terrorist attack on Ukraine!
Are you stupidly lying in order to lie, which is typical for the inhabitants of totalitarian states, where it is customary to deny reality in order to try to justify oneself or are not educated to read and understand? The choice is yours !

Below is the original signature of the document in the original language.

"
II. Цeй Зaкoн нaбиpaє чиннocтi з дня, нacтyпнoгo зa днeм йoгo oпyблiкyвaння.
Пpeзидeнт Укpaїни П. ПOPOШEHКO.
Пoпepeдньo cxвaлeний
Bepxoвнoю Paдoю Укpaїни
22 лиcтoпaдa 2018 poкy
м. Київ,
7 лютoгo 2019 poкy.
№ 2680-VIII.
"

Let EVERYONE get acquainted with your "truth", and how you primitively distort reality, in the hope that this will not be checked!

[be.open]

From this perspective, all wars are absurd, and thus we cancel all those historical narratives about states' strategies and intelligence interests.
Your talk seems logical to a large extent, but it is really difficult for me to accept that a giant authority like Russia, with its arms extended to protect its interests in all parts of the world, takes decisions based on whims and not from an objective study of reality.
And to be frank, I was somewhat convinced that Russia wants to put an end to NATO's presence on its borders by getting its hands on Ukraine as well as protecting its interests from selling gas to Europe. But when I read information about it selling oil for half its price, I really feel that something is missing from my analysis and that things may be much deeper.

Absolutely agree with your assumption. When I tell people who do not live in Russia and Ukraine what Russia is doing, they tell me - "hey guy, stop it! It can't be like that! They're not complete idiots!".
.... But then I turn on Russian channels to them, show documentary footage .. And they sit, with frozen bewilderment on their faces, and say "no ... well, it shouldn't be like that ... This is nonsense!... But so it is!... How can this be?"

Believe me - what seems abnormal to a normal person is the norm in Russia


"And to be frank, I was somewhat convinced that Russia wants to put an end to NATO's presence on its borders by getting its hands on Ukraine as well as protecting its interests from selling gas to Europe." - on this occasion, I say very simple, logical, and, importantly, easily verifiable information: before Russia's terrorist attack on Ukraine, Ukraine had NO PLANS TO JOIN NATO! There was only a desire to switch to new, progressive standards of building an army according to the Western model, instead of the morally, technically and ideologically outdated concept of building an army according to the "Soviet".

It is also easy to prove the lies of other Russian propaganda narratives, just double-check them, and soon you will understand what is actually being built on a LIE!

What kind of nonsense are you talking about? Plans for Ukraine's accession to NATO are enshrined in the Constitution of Ukraine.

Yeah, you decided - the dumber you lie, the more they will believe? I understand that you are from Russia, and your lies are part of the culture and mentality, no offense, but there are simply no other explanations for what you wrote!
So:
1. I wrote that until 2014, when Russia launched a terrorist war against Ukraine (see source text above), Ukraine did not have a decision to join NATO. There were only movements in the direction of moving away from the old and obsolete Soviet weapons and the transition to advanced weapons standards.
And I absolutely say that after 2014, yes, Ukraine took the vector to join NATO! Is everything right here?
2. And now your answer. You tell me that I am writing nonsense (see your original text above), such as evidence, you throw up a link to a bill that allegedly says that this was adopted BEFORE 2014. ! But you throw me an article that says that these changes have been made to ... ATTENTION! In 2018!!! And signed by the President Poroshenko P.A., who was elected to the post of President already AFTER the Russian terrorist attack on Ukraine!
Are you stupidly lying in order to lie, which is typical for the inhabitants of totalitarian states, where it is customary to deny reality in order to try to justify oneself or are not educated to read and understand? The choice is yours !

Below is the original signature of the document in the original language.

"
II. Цeй Зaкoн нaбиpaє чиннocтi з дня, нacтyпнoгo зa днeм йoгo oпyблiкyвaння.
Пpeзидeнт Укpaїни П. ПOPOШEHКO.
Пoпepeдньo cxвaлeний
Bepxoвнoю Paдoю Укpaїни
22 лиcтoпaдa 2018 poкy
м. Київ,
7 лютoгo 2019 poкy.
№ 2680-VIII.
"

Let EVERYONE get acquainted with your "truth", and how you primitively distort reality, in the hope that this will not be checked!

Breathe deeply, you are excited. Relations between Ukraine and NATO began in 1992, when Ukraine, after gaining independence, joined the North Atlantic Cooperation Council. A few years later, in February 1994, Ukraine entered into a framework agreement with NATO under the Partnership for Peace initiative, followed in 2002 by the NATO Individual Partnership Plan. Between these events, in April 1999, a NATO mission opened in Kyiv. You either do not know the latest history of your own country well, or you are lying openly.

[coupable]

From this perspective, all wars are absurd, and thus we cancel all those historical narratives about states' strategies and intelligence interests.
Your talk seems logical to a large extent, but it is really difficult for me to accept that a giant authority like Russia, with its arms extended to protect its interests in all parts of the world, takes decisions based on whims and not from an objective study of reality.
And to be frank, I was somewhat convinced that Russia wants to put an end to NATO's presence on its borders by getting its hands on Ukraine as well as protecting its interests from selling gas to Europe. But when I read information about it selling oil for half its price, I really feel that something is missing from my analysis and that things may be much deeper.

Absolutely agree with your assumption. When I tell people who do not live in Russia and Ukraine what Russia is doing, they tell me - "hey guy, stop it! It can't be like that! They're not complete idiots!".
.... But then I turn on Russian channels to them, show documentary footage .. And they sit, with frozen bewilderment on their faces, and say "no ... well, it shouldn't be like that ... This is nonsense!... But so it is!... How can this be?"

Believe me - what seems abnormal to a normal person is the norm in Russia


"And to be frank, I was somewhat convinced that Russia wants to put an end to NATO's presence on its borders by getting its hands on Ukraine as well as protecting its interests from selling gas to Europe." - on this occasion, I say very simple, logical, and, importantly, easily verifiable information: before Russia's terrorist attack on Ukraine, Ukraine had NO PLANS TO JOIN NATO! There was only a desire to switch to new, progressive standards of building an army according to the Western model, instead of the morally, technically and ideologically outdated concept of building an army according to the "Soviet".

It is also easy to prove the lies of other Russian propaganda narratives, just double-check them, and soon you will understand what is actually being built on a LIE!

What kind of nonsense are you talking about? Plans for Ukraine's accession to NATO are enshrined in the Constitution of Ukraine.

Yeah, you decided - the dumber you lie, the more they will believe? I understand that you are from Russia, and your lies are part of the culture and mentality, no offense, but there are simply no other explanations for what you wrote!
So:
1. I wrote that until 2014, when Russia launched a terrorist war against Ukraine (see source text above), Ukraine did not have a decision to join NATO. There were only movements in the direction of moving away from the old and obsolete Soviet weapons and the transition to advanced weapons standards.
And I absolutely say that after 2014, yes, Ukraine took the vector to join NATO! Is everything right here?
2. And now your answer. You tell me that I am writing nonsense (see your original text above), such as evidence, you throw up a link to a bill that allegedly says that this was adopted BEFORE 2014. ! But you throw me an article that says that these changes have been made to ... ATTENTION! In 2018!!! And signed by the President Poroshenko P.A., who was elected to the post of President already AFTER the Russian terrorist attack on Ukraine!
Are you stupidly lying in order to lie, which is typical for the inhabitants of totalitarian states, where it is customary to deny reality in order to try to justify oneself or are not educated to read and understand? The choice is yours !

Below is the original signature of the document in the original language.

"
II. Цeй Зaкoн нaбиpaє чиннocтi з дня, нacтyпнoгo зa днeм йoгo oпyблiкyвaння.
Пpeзидeнт Укpaїни П. ПOPOШEHКO.
Пoпepeдньo cxвaлeний
Bepxoвнoю Paдoю Укpaїни
22 лиcтoпaдa 2018 poкy
м. Київ,
7 лютoгo 2019 poкy.
№ 2680-VIII.
"

Let EVERYONE get acquainted with your "truth", and how you primitively distort reality, in the hope that this will not be checked!

Breathe deeply, you are excited. Relations between Ukraine and NATO began in 1992, when Ukraine, after gaining independence, joined the North Atlantic Cooperation Council. A few years later, in February 1994, Ukraine entered into a framework agreement with NATO under the Partnership for Peace initiative, followed in 2002 by the NATO Individual Partnership Plan. Between these events, in April 1999, a NATO mission opened in Kyiv. You either do not know the latest history of your own country well, or you are lying openly.

First, it is not a good idea to keep accusing each other of lying to each other. We are in an open discussion on a public forum, not a challenge.
Second, Russia could not oppose the cooperation agreement between Ukraine and NATO in 1992 because it was at its most vulnerable time after the fall of the Berlin Wall and the fall of the Soviet Union. With Russia recovering and restoring its global position as a regional and global power, it is natural that it will not stand idly by in the face of NATO's provocations. Unfortunately, Ukraine was the scapegoat provided by America under the cover of NATO to push the region towards war .

[be.open]

First, it is not a good idea to keep accusing each other of lying to each other. We are in an open discussion on a public forum, not a challenge.

Your eagerness to teach me how to do the right thing is commendable, but redundant.

Second, Russia could not oppose the cooperation agreement between Ukraine and NATO in 1992 because it was at its most vulnerable time after the fall of the Berlin Wall and the fall of the Soviet Union. With Russia recovering and restoring its global position as a regional and global power, it is natural that it will not stand idly by in the face of NATO's provocations. Unfortunately, Ukraine was the scapegoat provided by America under the cover of NATO to push the region towards war .

You are right, Ukraine has become a victim of the pressure of external circumstances and its own stupidity. Initially a suicidal idea to build their national identity on hatred of Russia. Ukraine does not and did not have a chance to defeat Russia in a military conflict, but the US and NATO said you can, and we will help you in every possible way. It's just stupid, and now Europe has a problem of how to replace Russian gas supplies. Technically, this is the success of US diplomacy in the framework of the concept that for the collapse of Europe it is necessary to quarrel Germany and Russia. The shortsightedness of this concept is that its success creates a new cluster center of power in the world Russia - India - China, with strong influence in South America, Africa and the Middle East, and this casts doubt on the active hegemony of the United States, in alliance with Britain, with strong influence in Australia, Western Europe and Japan.

[Ozero]

First, it is not a good idea to keep accusing each other of lying to each other. We are in an open discussion on a public forum, not a challenge.

Your eagerness to teach me how to do the right thing is commendable, but redundant.

Second, Russia could not oppose the cooperation agreement between Ukraine and NATO in 1992 because it was at its most vulnerable time after the fall of the Berlin Wall and the fall of the Soviet Union. With Russia recovering and restoring its global position as a regional and global power, it is natural that it will not stand idly by in the face of NATO's provocations. Unfortunately, Ukraine was the scapegoat provided by America under the cover of NATO to push the region towards war .

You are right, Ukraine has become a victim of the pressure of external circumstances and its own stupidity. Initially a suicidal idea to build their national identity on hatred of Russia. Ukraine does not and did not have a chance to defeat Russia in a military conflict, but the US and NATO said you can, and we will help you in every possible way. It's just stupid, and now Europe has a problem of how to replace Russian gas supplies. Technically, this is the success of US diplomacy in the framework of the concept that for the collapse of Europe it is necessary to quarrel Germany and Russia. The shortsightedness of this concept is that its success creates a new cluster center of power in the world Russia - India - China, with strong influence in South America, Africa and the Middle East, and this casts doubt on the active hegemony of the United States, in alliance with Britain, with strong influence in Australia, Western Europe and Japan.

Ukraine built its national identity on hatred of Russia? Do not make me laugh. Let me remind you that on December 5, 1994, Ukraine signed a Memorandum of Security Guarantees in connection with Ukraine's accession to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (Budapest Memorandum). It was signed by the leaders of Ukraine, Russia, Great Britain and the USA. According to it, Ukraine voluntarily gave up its third nuclear weapon in the world in exchange for security guarantees provided to it, including from Russia. Moreover, part of the nuclear potential was transferred to Russia along with those long-range missiles with which Russia is now shelling the territory of Ukraine. Probably, it was out of hatred for Russia that Ukraine handed over these weapons and ammunition to it? Ukraine, it turns out, acted stupidly only in the sense that it believed Russia. Big Brother turned out to be the worst of enemies and committed such a cruel genocide to Ukraine that even the Nazis could not dream of.

Are you saying that Ukraine had no chance to defeat Russia in a military "conflict"? The above facts just show that Ukraine did not prepare for war with Russia, but tried to live in peace with it and build good neighborly relations.
After Russia's flagrant violation of the Budapest Memorandum, Ukraine has every right not only to ask, but even to demand military assistance from the United States and Great Britain against Russia's treacherous attack.

[coupable]

Second, Russia could not oppose the cooperation agreement between Ukraine and NATO in 1992 because it was at its most vulnerable time after the fall of the Berlin Wall and the fall of the Soviet Union. With Russia recovering and restoring its global position as a regional and global power, it is natural that it will not stand idly by in the face of NATO's provocations. Unfortunately, Ukraine was the scapegoat provided by America under the cover of NATO to push the region towards war .

You are right, Ukraine has become a victim of the pressure of external circumstances and its own stupidity. Initially a suicidal idea to build their national identity on hatred of Russia. Ukraine does not and did not have a chance to defeat Russia in a military conflict, but the US and NATO said you can, and we will help you in every possible way. It's just stupid, and now Europe has a problem of how to replace Russian gas supplies. Technically, this is the success of US diplomacy in the framework of the concept that for the collapse of Europe it is necessary to quarrel Germany and Russia. The shortsightedness of this concept is that its success creates a new cluster center of power in the world Russia - India - China, with strong influence in South America, Africa and the Middle East, and this casts doubt on the active hegemony of the United States, in alliance with Britain, with strong influence in Australia, Western Europe and Japan.

We agree that Ukraine has been pushed into a crazy war that has no possibilities to fight it except the hopes that NATO will save it militarily, which it became clear to us is very far away. The most foolish step was taken by the European countries (America's ally in NATO), which, in my opinion, are the first victims of this war, due to the adverse effect of the sanctions they imposed on Russia. The situation of the German economy is currently considered catastrophic, according to many experts, especially since it cannot in any way give up Russian energy supplies and does not have the logistical structure to import liquefied gas from other sources. Apparently, America deceived them all and is waiting for what will happen in order to appear in the role of the savior.
Ukraine, in the worst case, will become a Russian colony, which will relatively distance it from the energy crisis caused by the struggle of the giants .

[Ozero]

We agree that Ukraine has been pushed into a crazy war that has no possibilities to fight it except the hopes that NATO will save it militarily, which it became clear to us is very far away. The most foolish step was taken by the European countries (America's ally in NATO), which, in my opinion, are the first victims of this war, due to the adverse effect of the sanctions they imposed on Russia. The situation of the German economy is currently considered catastrophic, according to many experts, especially since it cannot in any way give up Russian energy supplies and does not have the logistical structure to import liquefied gas from other sources. Apparently, America deceived them all and is waiting for what will happen in order to appear in the role of the savior.
Ukraine, in the worst case, will become a Russian colony, which will relatively distance it from the energy crisis caused by the struggle of the giants .

after Russia and Ukraine coming up next China and Taiwan.
And it will make things more complex in that part of the world and also it may affect create the global issues as well.
We all need a break now.
No more wars - Peace only.

No more wars - only peace? I think you need to declare this to Russia and the defenders of its war of conquest in this forum. As long as Russia believes that they can win this war, they do not want to hear about any negotiations, except on their own terms. And this for Ukraine means the loss of significant territories and the postponement of the second stage of the war, until Russia gets stronger again. The only way out for Ukraine and the entire civilized world is to inflict a military defeat on Russia in this war and thus make its further aggression impossible.
Now a very interesting situation is developing for Ukraine on the southern front, where the most combat-ready part of the Russian troops may suffer a colossal defeat in the next few weeks, which can radically change the situation both in this war and within Russia itself. We will be watching further developments.

[pooya87]

the hopes that NATO will save it militarily, which it became clear to us is very far away.

All Ukraine's problems started when they started having this fake hope since that help has never even been "far away" it never existed to begin with. NATO wanted this war but with Ukrainians not with NATO members.

Now a very interesting situation is developing for Ukraine on the southern front, where the most combat-ready part of the Russian troops may suffer a colossal defeat in the next few weeks, which can radically change the situation both in this war and within Russia itself. We will be watching further developments.

I wonder if the US plans to turn Ukraine into Afghanistan is starting to come true. We know that after the US invasion of Afghanistan, they continued experiencing more defeats and that meant using more devastating weapons there that only killed more civilians and yet they lost the war and were kicked out after 20 years in defeat.
That of course left Afghanistan in complete ruin and extremists in power.

[WatChe]

the hopes that NATO will save it militarily, which it became clear to us is very far away.

All Ukraine's problems started when they started having this fake hope since that help has never even been "far away" it never existed to begin with. NATO wanted this war but with Ukrainians not with NATO members.

Now a very interesting situation is developing for Ukraine on the southern front, where the most combat-ready part of the Russian troops may suffer a colossal defeat in the next few weeks, which can radically change the situation both in this war and within Russia itself. We will be watching further developments.

I wonder if the US plans to turn Ukraine into Afghanistan is starting to come true. We know that after the US invasion of Afghanistan, they continued experiencing more defeats and that meant using more devastating weapons there that only killed more civilians and yet they lost the war and were kicked out after 20 years in defeat.
That of course left Afghanistan in complete ruin and extremists in power.

USA has a history of betraying his friends. In 1971, when Pakistan is having a war with India in East Pakistan (now Bangladesh) USA keep on saying to Pakistan that they are sending his naval fleet to rescue Pakistan but it never arrived. Sams is happening in ukarine, USA is not sending his ground forces only weapons and that too on payments from EU and ukarine.
Now USA is trying to open another front aka tiawan. But IMO it won't last for more then a week if China responded to that aggression.

Afghanistan has gone once again back in stone ages thanks to usa and EU moves of bringing democracy in every country that stood against them.

[coupable]

the hopes that NATO will save it militarily, which it became clear to us is very far away.

All Ukraine's problems started when they started having this fake hope since that help has never even been "far away" it never existed to begin with. NATO wanted this war but with Ukrainians not with NATO members.

I would like to focus on an important point here that I have emphasized earlier. The battle can be classified as part of an old renewed confrontation between Russia and the United States. America, represented by NATO, sacrificed not only Ukraine to make it a battlefield, but also its European friends, its allies in NATO. Perhaps Ukraine would be least affected by the war even if it was completely occupied by Russia.

Now a very interesting situation is developing for Ukraine on the southern front, where the most combat-ready part of the Russian troops may suffer a colossal defeat in the next few weeks, which can radically change the situation both in this war and within Russia itself. We will be watching further developments.

I wonder if the US plans to turn Ukraine into Afghanistan is starting to come true. We know that after the US invasion of Afghanistan, they continued experiencing more defeats and that meant using more devastating weapons there that only killed more civilians and yet they lost the war and were kicked out after 20 years in defeat.
That of course left Afghanistan in complete ruin and extremists in power.

In my opinion, the Afghan experience is more complicated in view of the widespread religious groups that were looking for support to organize and confront the Soviet colonizer. Those religious groups can easily turn towards extremism and seek to implement a settlement project, and not only in the form of a resistance movement.
I do not think Russia will allow this kind of extremist presence for a country that will annex it to its colonies, which is also a neighboring country.

[pooya87]

But IMO it won't last for more then a week if China responded to that aggression.

I'm not so sure about that. A ton of weapons were sold to Taiwan and on top of that the Chinese military hasn't really been in any wars so they lack experience. I'd say the time it takes is unpredictable.
For the time being Chinese strategy seems to be to cut Taiwan off and increase the pressure considering they depends a lot on China as it is. The invasion is possibly happening in Fall regardless of what US tries to do these days.

Perhaps Ukraine would be least affected by the war even if it was completely occupied by Russia.

I agree. Another scenario would have been if Ukraine had a politician as a president instead, he could have played both sides and receive points from both without leaning towards one side only threatening the other to force an invasion.

In my opinion, the Afghan experience is more complicated in view of the widespread religious groups that were looking for support to organize and confront the Soviet colonizer. Those religious groups can easily turn towards extremism and seek to implement a settlement project, and not only in the form of a resistance movement.
I do not think Russia will allow this kind of extremist presence for a country that will annex it to its colonies, which is also a neighboring country.

Although extremism in another form exists in Ukraine but it is not the only way to prolong this war and slowly make Russia weaker. See the type and amount of weapons that they are sending Ukraine. They are all categorized as low-tier weapons (like the very short range missiles) so that they can only give Ukrainians enough power to slow down Russian advances but not stop it.
Of course the fact that Ukraine is selling a large number of those weapons on black market doesn't help but US is still trying to keep that balance to slow down Russia but not stop it completely and not to push it over the edge to change the game entirely.

[WatChe]

But IMO it won't last for more then a week if China responded to that aggression.

I'm not so sure about that. A ton of weapons were sold to Taiwan and on top of that the Chinese military hasn't really been in any wars so they lack experience. I'd say the time it takes is unpredictable.
For the time being Chinese strategy seems to be to cut Taiwan off and increase the pressure considering they depends a lot on China as it is. The invasion is possibly happening in Fall regardless of what US tries to do these days.

I was seeing statement of Chinese envoy, "that usa first create problem in the region and then jump in to solve that issue, be careful."
Chinese haven't fought a war in years but that doesn't mean that can't handle a tiny island. Tiawan is a very narrow island with no depth in it. Tiawan shouldn't do any mistake of provoking China like ukarine. I highly doubt tiawan can withstand Chinese aggression for long.
It's a fact that whenever some country stands in front of usa, usa response is only one thing aka bring democracy there.



https://twitter.com/zlj517/status/1556661451409854464?t=YXUmHk3fiImiQe5gwPyJZQ&s=19

[bitgov]

But IMO it won't last for more then a week if China responded to that aggression.

I'm not so sure about that. A ton of weapons were sold to Taiwan and on top of that the Chinese military hasn't really been in any wars so they lack experience. I'd say the time it takes is unpredictable.
For the time being Chinese strategy seems to be to cut Taiwan off and increase the pressure considering they depends a lot on China as it is. The invasion is possibly happening in Fall regardless of what US tries to do these days.

I was seeing statement of Chinese envoy, "that usa first create problem in the region and then jump in to solve that issue, be careful."
Chinese haven't fought a war in years but that doesn't mean that can't handle a tiny island. Tiawan is a very narrow island with no depth in it. Tiawan shouldn't do any mistake of provoking China like ukarine. I highly doubt tiawan can withstand Chinese aggression for long.
It's a fact that whenever some country stands in front of usa, usa response is only one thing aka bring democracy there.

That is so true - there is so much damage to the world done on the name of democracy.
On the other side. EU has to go back to Russia - seek apolgy and start their trade again. There is no other soloution

[WatChe]

The current world gas supply has been controlled by strong countries such as Russia, USA, China, Britain and so on, it should not be difficult for countries that depend on Russian gas, but to be able to bring gas in a short time certainly will not happen, and this is what makes Russia feels a bargaining value to suppress Europe.

Well there is new development going on and that is Iran has placed a 10 million import order using cryptocurrency. If this test went successful then Iran can easily bypass sanctions imposed by USA and trade easily with its neighbouring counties that are deficient in energy but fearful to trade with Iran due to usa pressure. Its not clear which crypto is used but that not important. Important is this test of 10 million usd import.
Iran has rich reserves of gas and can supply to world to meet energy needs.

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/iran-makes-first-import-order-using-cryptocurrency-tasnim-2022-08-09/

[pooya87]

If this test went successful then Iran can easily bypass sanctions imposed by USA and trade easily with its neighbouring counties that are deficient in energy but fearful to trade with Iran due to usa pressure.

That is not how one bypasses sanctions. If a country is giving in to the US sanctions they won't trade with Iran with or without cryptocurrencies. Not to mention that Iran already has a lot of energy exports to all its neighbors regardless of the sanctions!
For example regarding energy, recently a new contract was signed between Pakistan and Iran to export an additional 100 MW electricity to Pakistan on top of the current 104 MW. Between 200 to 1200 MW is also sold to Iraq. That is on top of exports of gas and other stuff.

Important is this test of 10 million usd import.

$10 million is too tiny in $10 billion monthly exports that Iran has! It is also probably with Russia and using Iran's CBDC called Crypto-Rial.

[Sithara007]

Important is this test of 10 million usd import.

$10 million is too tiny in $10 billion monthly exports that Iran has! It is also probably with Russia and using Iran's CBDC called Crypto-Rial.

None of the CBDCs have the liquidity to handle trans-national trade, especially on oil and gas. Venezuela attempted this, and they failed. China came up with their e-CNY and I am yet to hear about any concrete movement. Indian government made a similar announcement more than a year ago, and the development is yet to start. The big problem is that USD remains the first preference for petroleum trade. None of these CBDCs are capable of replacing USD from the market, no matter how much the governments support them.