Wheat War I is going to be World War III

[pooya87]

The global food situation is worsening every second and in a month or two could lead to mass unrest followed by regimes suppressing the violence and eventually a wider war between countries stealing each other's food supplies to ease their domestic unrest, something similar but worse than what we saw during the first months of pandemic where Europeans countries were stealing from each other to ease their own crisis.

Let's take a quick look at a series of events:
1. Russia and Ukraine are two big producers, Russia invades and production is ceased in Ukraine.
2. Russia is sanctioned to put economic pressure on them so their exports to 99% of the world is completely stopped
3. Other producers like India follow this trend and stop their exports
4. Price of food soars as scarcity is now a serious threat
5. Other countries are embracing for the crisis by trying desperately to increase their own production but fertilizer exports are also ceased so the domestic production has also decreased significantly in most countries.
6. China is mass purchasing any food (wheat, etc.) that are found in the world and is also pre-purchasing future production (as much as anybody would sell them) at high prices.
7. France is already telling Ukraine to give up defending so that maybe they can avert food crisis themselves!

The real question is how would each country handle this crisis. And at what scale is the conflicts going to break?

In West Asia we are producing most of our needs already but the pressure is still felt here. The biggest problem we are facing is the neighbors. The borders are already being tightened as we speak to handle immigration and prevent illegal exports that are basically stealing food!

Correct me if I'm wrong but Europe seems to be highly dependent on imports when it comes to basic food (wheat, oil, live-stock feed, etc.) and others and the supply has decreased while the prices are soaring.
US doesn't seem to be doing well either as they are currently trying to rob Ukraine and transfer all their wheat supply to reduce the crisis US itself is facing through the western border while Russia is still busy in the east and south and the world isn't looking.

This is starting to feel like WWII already when the Allies invaded India for example and how Churchil stole their food and starved more than 3 million Indians to death. The difference however is that the option to invade East to survive their European War aka WWII is no longer there for the West, so my guess would be a lot of conflict between different countries in Europe if the food crisis worsens, NATO falling apart and eventual mass migration towards East.

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[Moneyprism]

The real question is how would each country handle this crisis. And at what scale is the conflicts going to break?

in my own country, now the government is intensively financing MSMEs and also farmers to be independent and grow various plants well ... even now the government is also deploying graduates who have just graduated to assist farmers in developing their agriculture.. with this decision made by the government, we have succeeded in making our country's supply chain less affected by inflation and the global food crisis

[davis196]

7. France is already telling Ukraine to give up defending so that maybe they can avert food crisis themselves!

What?I don't know about France telling Ukraine to give up defending.This is probably fake news.
The food prices around the globe will definitely increase a lot,but I think that you are exaggerating a little bit.
Ukraine actually exports a part of it's own wheat production.The wheat is being transported to the Romanian port of Konstanza,where it will be transported by sea to the west.Perhaps a part of the Ukrainian wheat has been stolen by the Russians,but they have to sell it to countries in the Middle East(or China and India).Russia also needs more income from exporting goods,so the Russians have to sell their own wheat production.
I don't expect global starvation, but food will become more and more expensive for sure.

[pooya87]

What?I don't know about France telling Ukraine to give up defending.This is probably fake news.

You can argue about the reasons behind the suggestion but not the news itself since it is direct quotes from Ukraine's president Zelensky, unless you think the comedian is lying.
He claims that French President Emmanuel Macron has been pressuring him to yield a lot of territories to Russia.
I believe this is the origin of the news:
https://www.uawire.org/zelensky-macron-suggested-to-make-concessions-on-ukraine-s-sovereignty-to-help-putin-save-face#

I think that you are exaggerating a little bit.

Not a little bit, I'm theorizing the worse case scenario while wishing something a lot less happens to our world.

I don't expect global starvation, but food will become more and more expensive for sure.

One reason why I mentioned the worse case scenario and global starvation is that production everywhere is decreased due to a much lower supply of fertilizers which is something I haven't seen any analysts out there even consider! You see farmers need fertilizers so that the soil can handle more production and more frequent production. Otherwise the soil won't have enough nutrition in it to help the crops grow.
So we have a combination of decreased imports, decreased domestic production and at the same time we have an increased consumption. This sounds a lot like a recipe for disaster.

[Mometaskers]

I did saw the news about India stating they'd stop exporting their wheat. It's not really just Europe that is going to be affected by this. A large portion of North Africa and Middle East import their wheat. One of the reasons Egypt is angry about the Renaissance Dam is the reduced flow while it fill up is going to affect whatever wheat yield they are currently producing, and they are already importing a large portion of what they consume.

I was about to say I'm not as worried being a rice eater then I remembered China is basically strangling continental Southeast Asia's water supply and that would affect their rice production. Water war.

So we have a combination of decreased imports, decreased domestic production and at the same time we have an increased consumption. This sounds a lot like a recipe for disaster.

Due to intermittent fasting, I've somehow reduced my meals to x2 a day and I believe I can bring it down to x1 if need be. The problem is not everyone is just going to consciously reduce consumption and by the time they do, it's likely coz there's already a shortage and they were forced into it.

[be.open]

It's amazing, Russia accounts for only 2% of world GDP, but it seems that this is the very necessary two percent that you can eat, pour into the gas tank of a car or heat a house with them in winter. And everything else is just numbers on the stock exchange.

[mm2543363580]

I did saw the news about India stating they'd stop exporting their wheat. It's not really just Europe that is going to be affected by this. A large portion of North Africa and Middle East import their wheat. One of the reasons Egypt is angry about the Renaissance Dam is the reduced flow while it fill up is going to affect whatever wheat yield they are currently producing, and they are already importing a large portion of what they consume.

I was about to say I'm not as worried being a rice eater then I remembered China is basically strangling continental Southeast Asia's water supply and that would affect their rice production. Water war.

So we have a combination of decreased imports, decreased domestic production and at the same time we have an increased consumption. This sounds a lot like a recipe for disaster.

Due to intermittent fasting, I've somehow reduced my meals to x2 a day and I believe I can bring it down to x1 if need be. The problem is not everyone is just going to consciously reduce consumption and by the time they do, it's likely coz there's already a shortage and they were forced into it.

that is why I have mentioned earlier that world can not shut its door to the Russia - Mainly due to oil and 2ndly due to wheat.
This war is going to have lasting affact on the economy. And Russia will rise again no matter what!

[avikz]

Alongside China and India, US is also a mass producer of wheat and many other food grains. Whatever is happening in Europe, is a pre-planned series of events formulated by White house and Pentagon. I wouldn't be surprised, if UK is also a part of this conspiracy or not but they are also very likely to be a part of it.

Otherwise, there's no reason why US will force countries like Ukraine and Finland to join NATO. It would give them uninterrupted access to Russian border. That's what Russia is protesting and trying to protect their border from US invasion.  The UK and US imposed sanctions on them and look who are the most affected countries - european countries. US is all fine here!

If you don't understand the gameplan yet, you are living in fool's paradise.

[Vaskiy]

In a month's time the stand of India on wheat export have changed completely upside down. India made the first statement louder and the second one in a much quite way. Publicity without proper understanding is the reason for such moves. The entire world is in short, and India being the second largest producer of wheat could've handled the situation better. Because, there is more and more flaws in buying from the farmers and proper way of warehousing.

[be.open]

In a month's time the stand of India on wheat export have changed completely upside down. India made the first statement louder and the second one in a much quite way. Publicity without proper understanding is the reason for such moves. The entire world is in short, and India being the second largest producer of wheat could've handled the situation better. Because, there is more and more flaws in buying from the farmers and proper way of warehousing.

India can be understood, now it is the most numerous country in the world and it should first of all think about its own food security. It is unlikely that this decision was dictated by foreign policy motives; rather, it was influenced by the abnormal heat in March. In France, the situation with the climate is also unfavorable, there has been no rain for two months.

[Zilon]

The issue of food scarcity is solely because in this era farmers are few. Every one wants a clean job only a few are willing to go dirty for their cents. If mechanised farming gets high sponsorship by government agricultural banks I think many might consider farming as an occupation. Also If nations close down their boarders on importation of food may be the famine that smells close might be alleviated

[24Kt]

The issue of food scarcity is solely because in this era farmers are few. Every one wants a clean job only a few are willing to go dirty for their cents. If mechanised farming gets high sponsorship by government agricultural banks I think many might consider farming as an occupation. Also If nations close down their boarders on importation of food may be the famine that smells close might be alleviated

Considering that we have large part of agricultural land, it means, we won't go hungry if there will be farmers that will cultivate it. You are right, a lot are now looking for like office job or other easier jobs. Because being a farmer, takes hard work all day long under the heat of the sun. We can't expect new generations to follow this kind of lifestyle. But I do agree, the more machines in the farm, much better not only for the yield but less tedious jobs for the farmers. And it may possibly encourage them to stay in the farming business.

[Oceat]

This feels like going to WWIII if not stop immediately and world leaders should decide fast before it's too late for their people to suffer more in starvation not in war. I see where this is going if it will continue then neighboring countries whose solely relying on imported goods might get affected that much. It seems like a domino effect and soon will be felt by other countries and the answer to the solution is if world leaders would decide what to do to stop the crisis which is getting worse day by day.

[cabron]

In a month's time the stand of India on wheat export have changed completely upside down. India made the first statement louder and the second one in a much quite way. Publicity without proper understanding is the reason for such moves. The entire world is in short, and India being the second largest producer of wheat could've handled the situation better. Because, there is more and more flaws in buying from the farmers and proper way of warehousing.

India has its own problem. They're the 2nd largest population. Its only logical to save their own people from hunger than sending wheat somewhere. 

So little time left to grow crops before people will rally together out of hunger but maybe putting up an irrigation to the barren lands will work even for sweet potatoes just to survive this scarcity.  Wheat is just the most basic food for most countries.

[Hydrogen]

Correct me if I'm wrong but Europe seems to be highly dependent on imports when it comes to basic food (wheat, oil, live-stock feed, etc.)

As an american I suspect europe's food sustainability mirrors their solar energy viability. Many have pointed out how solar power isn't the best option for europe due to lack of sunlight. This trend could apply as well to europe's agricultural industry, which could lack the sunlight necessary to produce good volumes of food per hectare.

This is starting to feel like WWII already when the Allies invaded India for example and how Churchil stole their food and starved more than 3 million Indians to death. The difference however is that the option to invade East to survive their European War aka WWII is no longer there for the West, so my guess would be a lot of conflict between different countries in Europe if the food crisis worsens, NATO falling apart and eventual mass migration towards East.

One key thing to consider is bluefin tuna has been on the endangered species list for many consecutive years.

With overfishing, ocean pollution and acidification on the rise. There is a chance staple food products people rely on for survival could be hunted into extinction.

The amount of arable land (agriculture) in the world decreases every year. Along with worsening drought conditions and unstable weather patterns.

We could eventually face a perfect storm of worst case scenarios that is the stuff of nightmares.

The zombie apocalypse may be cancelled. The greatest threat to humanity may be our mismanagement of wildlife and resources.

[South Park]

It's amazing, Russia accounts for only 2% of world GDP, but it seems that this is the very necessary two percent that you can eat, pour into the gas tank of a car or heat a house with them in winter. And everything else is just numbers on the stock exchange.

It makes sense, a bullet can kill a person by damaging less than 1% of their body, the rest of the body is still fine and yet there is nothing that can be done to save that person, so it makes sense that a country that may not seem to hold too much power economically could produce such effects as long what they produce is critical, also I would not be surprised if Russia is at the top of the countries with the most drinking water, which will be a point of contention during this century.

[Zlantann]

I think this is a wakeup call to nations that have large and fertile lands for farming but yet depend on imports to feed their nations. Due to the discovery of oil and gas most countries abandoned agriculture and focused on the development of the oil and gas sector. Now most of them are suffering from inflation due to increase in the prices of food commodities. And this would become worst if there are no more grains to import. They are now adopting the fire brigade approach which include promoting agricultural education and investing in small and medium scale farming.

Although not attainable, it is also a lesson to the world that peaceful resolution of differences is the best instead of war. War has multidimensional and international negative consequences. No matter how far your country is from warring nations, it would definitely feel the negative impact of the war.

[Ozero]

7. France is already telling Ukraine to give up defending so that maybe they can avert food crisis themselves!

What?I don't know about France telling Ukraine to give up defending.This is probably fake news.
The food prices around the globe will definitely increase a lot,but I think that you are exaggerating a little bit.
Ukraine actually exports a part of it's own wheat production.The wheat is being transported to the Romanian port of Konstanza,where it will be transported by sea to the west.Perhaps a part of the Ukrainian wheat has been stolen by the Russians,but they have to sell it to countries in the Middle East(or China and India).Russia also needs more income from exporting goods,so the Russians have to sell their own wheat production.
I don't expect global starvation, but food will become more and more expensive for sure.

French President Macron suggested that Zelensky cede some part of his territories to Russia in this war in order to "save the face of Putin", who is clearly suffering a military defeat in Ukraine. To this, Zelensky replied that he was not even going to discuss the issues of ceding the territory of Ukraine and its sovereignty. The office of the President of Ukraine added that if Macron wants to make Putin a winner in the war, let him give up his territories.
 
With regard to food shortages, this issue is already being discussed at the highest levels. Russia is blocking shipping in the Black Sea and, first of all, the seaports of Ukraine. This does not allow Ukraine to export wheat and other agricultural products, which have already accumulated in the ports alone 4.5 million tons. The UN has already expressed fear of a famine that could begin in Africa. Therefore, they offered Russia to ease sanctions on the export of potash fertilizers in exchange for unblocking the ports of Ukraine. If Russia does not agree, then the US Sixth Fleet, which is now in the Mediterranean, is ready to enter the Black Sea to ensure the safety of navigation in this region. In this case, the likelihood of a Third World War increases, but no one is afraid of Russia anymore, since it has shown its military weakness and has already lost at least a third of its army in Ukraine.

[stompix]

Correct me if I'm wrong but Europe seems to be highly dependent on imports when it comes to basic food (wheat, oil, live-stock feed, etc.) and others and the supply has decreased while the prices are soaring.

Of course, you're wrong!

The EU is one the world's biggest food, cereals, and wheat exporter in the world, and also in the top biggest producers of all three of them.
They actually produce that much even wannabe regional powers are importing food from Europe.

the top EU agri-food products exported to Iran were wheat (€230 m) and cereals other than wheat and rice (€130 m);

That's why there are food riots in Iran and price increases of 300% overnight while in Europe all the shelves are full.

So this is wheat production:

* As mentioned, the EU's production of 126,658,950 tons would rank 2nd if it were a single country.

This is cereal production:
The EU produced 286.5 million tonnes of cereals in 2020., which puts Europe in fourth place but it completely outclases both India and China in per capita production.

And of course at the top when it comes to actual food exports,  with 6 of the biggest food exporters being from Europe. Just because in usual rankings pf production European countries don't make the top 5 is because the production is split between many of them with different crops for each one.

So now that we've covered wheat and cereals your other concerns, sunflower oil, again 5 countries from Europe in the biggest exporters,  and live stock feed, with 8 countries out of top 10 being again European.

Btw, speaking of crisis food riots, people getting shot in the streets, and the internet being closed down, why didn't you mention the 50 cents per day in food stamps the Iranian government is giving to the 80 million facing poverty and famine?
https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-bread-costs-skyrocket-unrest/31838051.html

Mohammad-Reza Mortazavi, the head of Iran's Flour Producers Association, said on May 2 that the country was more reliant than ever on foreign grain, and would have to import more than 20 million tons of grain in 2022. With Ukrainian grain exports hampered due to the war and the reported theft of Ukrainian grain stocks, Mortazavi said that Iran could not expect the rising price of agricultural commodities to fall, and would increasingly turn to "Russia or the Baltic states, and even [Western] Europe" for supplies.
https://observers.france24.com/en/middle-east/20220513-they-re-imposing-famine-on-us-protests-spread-among-iranians-faced-with-soaring-food-prices

So no, Europe has no food problem whatsoever, the only things we might be concerned about are bananas and coffee so we might have to get a cafe latte instead of an expresso. But of course, Russian and Iranian propaganda will tell you everything is the opposite, they know better.

[pooya87]

A large portion of North Africa and Middle East import their wheat.

West Asia or Middle East as you call it is already having problem with scarcity, why do you think we tightened our borders, they were stealing flour and selling it over the border for a whopping 10x profit! That forced the government to increase the flour price by a lot then give people the cash difference in their bank accounts.

But the difference with Europe and the reason why I focused on it is because the countries in West Asia that are facing the problems (Syria, Afghanistan, Lebanon,...) are all used to these problems. Their countries are already torn apart by decades long wars and food was already scarce. Europeans on the other hand have not experienced this and aren't expecting it.

US is all fine here!

I wouldn't say "fine" considering the inflation has been rising a lot in US ever since the conflict. Not to mention the money they are spending in Ukraine publicly and privately and through weapons donation has to come from somewhere.

If Russia does not agree, then the US Sixth Fleet, which is now in the Mediterranean, is ready to enter the Black Sea to ensure the safety of navigation in this region.

I seriously doubt that. US strategy over the past ~50 years ever since Vietnam defeat was to not get involved in conflicts as much as possible and only fight by arming proxies, separatists and extremists, specially if they are facing an actual adversary.
On top of that with the deplorable living situations that US marines have on the seas that has led to numerous suicides I don't think they are even combat ready.