Will Russia Emerge As The Next Dominant Superpower

[Hydrogen]

During World War II the world's major powers were bombed back to the stone age. With the exception of two nations. Russia and the united states. This set the stage for america and russia to emerge as the world's dominant superpowers leading into the cold war, korean war and vietnam war which followed.

Both the USSR and USA enjoyed the luxury of surviving World War II with their territories and economies largely intact. Profiting handsomely by loaning capital to other nations to rebuild. While the rest of the world toiled under debt and reconstruction efforts.

Looking at the current era a similar trend could emerge. America, the european union and china all carry large ratios of debt to GDP close to 100%. Russia's debt to GDP ratio is by far the smallest of any major power at around 20%. If a major recession hit global markets a case could be made for russia's government and economy being best structured to weather it. Russia is one of the most self sufficient nations in terms of raw materials, food and energy production. Russia also has many other world powers reliant and dependent on them for natural gas and other resources.

Long story short russia has many advantages over the USA, EU and china if an economic crisis hits.

If global markets are devastated by a crisis, russia is (in my opinion) the number #1 prospect to emerge as the next dominant superpower.

To avoid this, I think the united states would do well to keep its economy strong. As a hedge against russian encroachment. There isn't much alternative deterrent.

While russia's invasion of ukraine has stalled. Russia isn't trying very hard. They don't have to. They simply have to wait for the next big economic crisis when free money and support thrown at ukraine can no longer be funded. Then resistance may well crumble.

The best deterrent against invasion and war may be a strong economy with enough liquidity to make invasion too high priced too consider. Our current era with high deficits and weak economies could be interpreted as an open invitation for ambitious regimes like russia to invade us.

On the plus side if russia is the next dominant superpower they may be bitcoin friendly. At least that would be one positive thing we might look forward to in the horror show that could be the future.

[Poker Player]

It is not clear to me. On the one hand, as you say, it has little debt and plenty of resources, especially fossil fuels, and it does not have suicidal energy policies. Here I see a clear advantage over the EU. It happens as with China. If it is about to surpass the USA in GDP is largely because of its energy policies.

But for it to emerge as a superpower it would need another part of the equation, which is greater efficiency in the production of goods and services, and a better market economy. It is not enough just to have the resources, which is important, yes, but you have to exploit them well. Let's look at Venezuela for example, where having a lot of resources is of little or no use, because of the garbage policies of the government.

[bitzizzix]

What is considered a superpower is what it looks like, a superpower is a country that has great influence in world affairs.
and the state must be strong in military terms, especially in the economy and foreign policy and so on.
and Russia is by no means a part of it, its economy is weak and its foreign influence is not very strong and only the military aspect stands out.
a superpower that can project its influence globally, and currently, the US, China are catching up fast, and the EU stumbles in third.

[Hydrogen]

for it to emerge as a superpower it would need another part of the equation, which is greater efficiency in the production of goods and services, and a better market economy.

Russians pay around 50% of the income tax that EU citizens pay. I think the median income tax in russia is around 16%. That could translate to efficiency gains and a more deregulated environment in markets and business. The united states proposed a 30% global income tax awhile ago. Which is roughly double the income tax that russian citizens pay.

I am thinking high deficit and debt could have a crippling effect on the US, EU and china if (or when) economic crisis hits. The united states would no longer be able to hand ukraine $40 billion in free cash. Nor would we be able to mobilize our armed forces in the case of an emergency.

Any nation russia invaded would have to fend for themselves without much support from the united states or NATO.

The united states may seem to have no credit limit at the moment with the way we're spending capital. Eventually we will hit a wall and no longer be able to spend with hyperinflating the us dollar. Which could have catastrophic effects on american wealth, job markets and the economy. We won't be able to do much to help ukraine, or anyone else then. Could that be what russia is waiting for to commit to a stronger attempt at invasion?

Those are my thoughts anyway. It seems like basic 2 + 2 = 4. I would be happy if someone came along with a better illustration of the future.

[so98nn]

Russia may not become super power. They are just super giant mass of land and aggressive genetics built in over the time. The problem is, leader isn’t very calm and his commanding is not in the right direction. This will crumble Russia tactics themselves.

Funding won’t stop from the other nations because as of now Ukraine stands as protecting wall to the neighbouring countries. They have long lasting fear that Russia has another plans and may go aggressively further to the EU region.

This is why USA and NATO will not back out from Ukraine.

On the other hand soon after Sanctions imposed on Russian country will start corroding Russian economy. This will be a slow process but eventually it will weaken Russia and they will be in higher debts. The debts won’t be because of taking loans, but because of higher inflation and underlying import of crude oils, rations etc.

On the plus side if russia is the next dominant superpower they may be bitcoin friendly. At least that would be one positive thing we might look forward to in the horror show that could be the future.

If they become dominant then they will immediately switch to fiat friendly. They care about bitcoin right now because they have international sanction, ceased money overseas and only way to trade outside Russia swiftly is bitcoin with unlimited accessibility.

This will definitely change after Russia becomes dominant super power which is however highly unlikely.

[pooya87]

It depends on whether we are going to see a World War or not. If we do, it is not possible to predict because humanity may extinct!
Otherwise if we don't see a World War then there won't be a single dominant superpower because the world has been moving towards multiple superpowers in each region where the world is split into small territories and a strong country forms alliances and dominates that territories while having relations with some of the other powerhouses, some friendly and some not.

One of the main reasons why the West is not really helping Ukraine is because they want to prolong the war as much as they can to increase the cost on Russia and weaken at least one of these powerhouses.

[Darker45]

There are too many points to respond to. In general, however, I don't think Russia is heading toward the direction of becoming the next dominant superpower. Judging by its current actions, it is actually heading toward the opposite direction. It is fast becoming a hermit country than one which dominates the globe. And I don't think a country which effectively isolates itself from the rest of the world has a potential of becoming the world's dominant superpower. In these times, alliances and partnerships matter a lot.

In terms of self-sufficiency, Russia is generally not self-sufficient. Although, of course, not in terms of energy and gas. And although the country has only a very small portion of arable land, food imports have indeed decreased significantly and exports increased. Outside of these, however, Russia is highly dependent on other countries. As a matter of fact, extracting the country's topmost resources needs imported materials and technologies.

And I don't agree that Russia is not trying very hard to invade Ukraine as quickly and as easily as possible. They simply failed. And this is another factor. A dominant superpower should have a strong military. Ukraine, with the help of western allies, has so far proved that Russia's military is not as mighty as it is paraded.

Forget about Bitcoin. It has a very minor role to play, and any country could take a full U-turn in favor of it very quickly.

[cabron]

Russia is already a super power but its still not as huge as US since they don't have military bases every country in the world. But they proved to be economically prepared than the US economic sanction has put together.

I would however turn to China being the dominant super power since they have already made lots of countries on their side through their Belt and Road Initiative project and as of now, they have BRICS. This alliance had invited poor countries in South America which could turn to military alliance actually like Venezuela. Today, they've cemented the Solomon Island to be an ally which Australia had been very angry since its pretty much a security breach for them.

[davis196]

Both the USSR and USA enjoyed the luxury of surviving World War II with their territories and economies largely intact

You are terribly wrong about this. The western part of the USSR was occupied by nazi Germany and most of the industrial facilities of the USSR  were located in the west (Ukraine and Belarus) before the war. Those territories suffered from a lot of destruction and millions of people in the USSR died during the war (around 20 million). Saying that the USSR "enjoyed the luxury of surviving WWII" is simply stupid and ignorant.
The USSR didn't "enjoy" anything.

Russia can't beat USA and China in terms of GDP, demographics, technologies and military power. A global economic crisis won't change this.
Unfortunately Russia will remain as a threat for the global peace and security.

[be.open]

Unfortunately Russia will remain as a threat for the global peace and security.

Are you seriously? The West has robbed Russia by freezing its money and is now trying to find justifications to confiscate it. As Otto von Bismarck said:

Do not expect that once you take advantage of Russia's weakness, you will receive dividends forever. Russians always come for their money. And when they come, do not rely on the Jesuit agreements you have signed that allegedly justify you. They are not worth the paper they are written on. Therefore, it is worth either playing fair with the Russians, or not playing at all.

You stepped on the wrong guy's foot, you'll have to pay for it. I'm Russian, I'll take all your Nutella and make you eat shit. This is my plan, try to stop me if you can. 

[Zlantann]

Russian, NATO and US would not be stronger after this war. The world economy was just recovering from Covid-19 pandemic before this invasion began. IMF recently cut growth projection in advanced economies by 1 percentage point to 3 percent in 2022 from January projections. While Russian economy is predicted to  shrink by 8.5 percent, and in Ukraine by 35 percent.The point is that this war is very expensive to both parties and the sanctions is also affecting the economies of the two warring groups. Insinuating that that NATO and US will stop financing or supporting Ukraine because of lack of funds is far from the truth. Aids to Ukraine is a combined or coordinated efforts of countries with the most vibrant economies and you cannot compare these economies with a single Russian economy. In fact Russia would soon retreat because they never believed that the war will last this long and their budget for this war is really depreciating. Reconstruction would also affect both parties. Russia would have to rebuild some regions that will be ceded to it (this is one of the price to pay for peace) and NATO and her allies would spend so much on rebuilding Ukraine because that is one of the ways of encouraging refugees to return. China would be the next dominant super power because it is building its economy while others are spending in Ukraine.    

[be.open]

Russian, NATO and US would not be stronger after this war. The world economy was just recovering from Covid-19 pandemic before this invasion began. IMF recently cut growth projection in advanced economies by 1 percentage point to 3 percent in 2022 from January projections. While Russian economy is predicted to  shrink by 8.5 percent, and in Ukraine by 35 percent.The point is that this war is very expensive to both parties and the sanctions is also affecting the economies of the two warring groups. Insinuating that that NATO and US will stop financing or supporting Ukraine because of lack of funds is far from the truth. Aids to Ukraine is a combined or coordinated efforts of countries with the most vibrant economies and you cannot compare these economies with a single Russian economy. In fact Russia would soon retreat because they never believed that the war will last this long and their budget for this war is really depreciating. Reconstruction would also affect both parties. Russia would have to rebuild some regions that will be ceded to it (this is one of the price to pay for peace) and NATO and her allies would spend so much on rebuilding Ukraine because that is one of the ways of encouraging refugees to return. China would be the next dominant super power because it is building its economy while others are spending in Ukraine.    

You don't understand anything about economics. Armed conflict on foreign territory is the best way to solve economic problems. Russia earns a billion euros a day on the export of hydrocarbons to Europe and loads its military-industrial complex with work, disposing of old weapons and ammunition with an expiring date in Ukraine for free. It's better than drug dealing. Then Russia will once again earn on this, restoring what it destroyed in Ukraine. The ideal business, ask the US - they regularly do this, fomenting armed conflicts around the world.

[Zlantann]

Russian, NATO and US would not be stronger after this war. The world economy was just recovering from Covid-19 pandemic before this invasion began. IMF recently cut growth projection in advanced economies by 1 percentage point to 3 percent in 2022 from January projections. While Russian economy is predicted to  shrink by 8.5 percent, and in Ukraine by 35 percent.The point is that this war is very expensive to both parties and the sanctions is also affecting the economies of the two warring groups. Insinuating that that NATO and US will stop financing or supporting Ukraine because of lack of funds is far from the truth. Aids to Ukraine is a combined or coordinated efforts of countries with the most vibrant economies and you cannot compare these economies with a single Russian economy. In fact Russia would soon retreat because they never believed that the war will last this long and their budget for this war is really depreciating. Reconstruction would also affect both parties. Russia would have to rebuild some regions that will be ceded to it (this is one of the price to pay for peace) and NATO and her allies would spend so much on rebuilding Ukraine because that is one of the ways of encouraging refugees to return. China would be the next dominant super power because it is building its economy while others are spending in Ukraine.    

You don't understand anything about economics. Armed conflict on foreign territory is the best way to solve economic problems. Russia earns a billion euros a day on the export of hydrocarbons to Europe and loads its military-industrial complex with work, disposing of old weapons and ammunition with an expiring date in Ukraine for free. It's better than drug dealing. Then Russia will once again earn on this, restoring what it destroyed in Ukraine. The ideal business, ask the US - they regularly do this, fomenting armed conflicts around the world.

If Russia is making more money from the war and have enough to fight why are they using food blockage to armtwist NATO to review the sanctions imposed on them?
Also, openly boasting that Russia is using Ukraine to dump it's out of use arms and ammunition without considering the  lack of precision of these equipment is inhumane. Many civilians would die because these warheads would not hit it's target precisely.

[Hydrogen]

Both the USSR and USA enjoyed the luxury of surviving World War II with their territories and economies largely intact

You are terribly wrong about this. The western part of the USSR was occupied by nazi Germany and most of the industrial facilities of the USSR  were located in the west (Ukraine and Belarus) before the war. Those territories suffered from a lot of destruction and millions of people in the USSR died during the war (around 20 million). Saying that the USSR "enjoyed the luxury of surviving WWII" is simply stupid and ignorant.
The USSR didn't "enjoy" anything.

Russia continued to construct enormous quantities of tanks late into World War II.

Russia's factories, infrastructure and residential sectors had not been hit as hard as other countries. Which allowed their wartime production to thrive.

Comparing the devastation of nagasaki, hiroshima or UK cities bombed consecutively over long periods of time. Russia and the USA got off easy in comparison.

Russia and the united states were also in the best position to assimilate technology from nazi germany which was the reason behind those two nations being the main players in the space race.

[DrBeer]

Supercountry?! Russia !?? You have a very subtle sense of humor! Let's look at this position Eritrea for example? Well, why not? If your question is a little expanded, then it will sound like this - can a technologically, economically backward state - an outcast and a terrorist who preaches lawlessness, become a world leader? The answer suggests itself - NO. But Eritrea, when compared with Russia, has clearly more chances

[stompix]

Let me reply with another question, why no Canada or Australia?

Advantages:
- growing population, Russia has lost population from the start of the century even if we add Crimea, Canada has added 8 million, Australia 6, both of them have enormous GDP per capita compared to Russia, Cnada having a higher overall GPD despite being 3 times smaller rin population and Australia almost matching Russia, they both have huge agricultural capacities and production, being net staple food exporters, huge mineral and energy resources, just one neighbor in Canadian case and the ocean when it comes to Australia, no conflict, no territorial disputes.
- slight cons, a bit higher debt to GDP ratio at around 40% compared to 20%, no nukes

So, who's the winner?

And now another thing
Russia has the same advantages as the USSR but on a lower scale, with less land, less population, the soviet union had more people than the USA now the gap has grown to two times and a half in USA's favor, and the GDP difference has grown from 1:3 in the early '90s to 1:15, it has lost tons of resources with the loss of Kazahstan, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, and others and it has lost all its partners from the Warsaw pact that are nwo on the other side of the fence.
So if in 3 times more favorable conditions the USSR has failed, why would Russia manage?

You don't understand anything about economics. Armed conflict on foreign territory is the best way to solve economic problems. Russia earns a billion euros a day on the export of hydrocarbons to Europe and loads its military-industrial complex with work, disposing of old weapons and ammunition with an expiring date in Ukraine for free. It's better than drug dealing.

Isn't 1 billion a day something like 6 dollars per capita per day, or according to videos from Russia, 2 kilos of apples or 4 kilos of cheapest potatoes?



Wow, such growth, much power, moon economics!

[Beparanf]

What definition of a superpower you are considering by providing this kind of analysis? This is a pure economic assumption which can be deleted instantly when world war ignites. In able for a country to become a superpower needs to have a good influence on most of the country just like what US doing. US diplomacy has almost reached the whole world while Russia has only a few connections. The nearest country that can rival the US in terms of superpower is China since they are expanding their diplomacy in a different country just like what the US doing right now.

Maybe Russia can withstand recession if it's really hit but to become a superpower takes more than that since US has already experienced recession before but still hold its superpower status now.

[Ucy]

Well, Russia is already leading the World militarily and will gradually expand that power globally in space of two to three years before US will regain control. This is not because Russia has those advantages you claim she has but due to the Will of the CREATOR. A tiny nation nation with little advantage could be used to rule the world in similar manner. So, i don't believe it's a good idea to run conclusions based on those indices.

She is actually a silent super power that is yet to fully explore her potential. The others have become empty drums with the loudest noise.... The noise is part of what is making Russia to be cautious. If she hit the drums with little blows they will all fall apart and flee backward

[paxmao]

During World War II the world's major powers were bombed back to the stone age. With the exception of two nations. Russia and the united states. This set the stage for america and russia to emerge as the world's dominant superpowers leading into the cold war, korean war and vietnam war which followed.

Both the USSR and USA enjoyed the luxury of surviving World War II with their territories and economies largely intact. Profiting handsomely by loaning capital to other nations to rebuild. While the rest of the world toiled under debt and reconstruction efforts.

Looking at the current era a similar trend could emerge. America, the european union and china all carry large ratios of debt to GDP close to 100%. Russia's debt to GDP ratio is by far the smallest of any major power at around 20%. If a major recession hit global markets a case could be made for russia's government and economy being best structured to weather it. Russia is one of the most self sufficient nations in terms of raw materials, food and energy production. Russia also has many other world powers reliant and dependent on them for natural gas and other resources.

Long story short russia has many advantages over the USA, EU and china if an economic crisis hits.

If global markets are devastated by a crisis, russia is (in my opinion) the number #1 prospect to emerge as the next dominant superpower.

To avoid this, I think the united states would do well to keep its economy strong. As a hedge against russian encroachment. There isn't much alternative deterrent.

While russia's invasion of ukraine has stalled. Russia isn't trying very hard. They don't have to. They simply have to wait for the next big economic crisis when free money and support thrown at ukraine can no longer be funded. Then resistance may well crumble.

The best deterrent against invasion and war may be a strong economy with enough liquidity to make invasion too high priced too consider. Our current era with high deficits and weak economies could be interpreted as an open invitation for ambitious regimes like russia to invade us.

On the plus side if russia is the next dominant superpower they may be bitcoin friendly. At least that would be one positive thing we might look forward to in the horror show that could be the future.

Quite a few of the facts are wrong and quite a few of the conclusions:

- UK was not bombed to the stone age in any manner. Only Germany, Japan, part of Russia... not even France as the defeat was quick and swift.
- US profited from lending, the USSR simply kept the territories occupied against their will.

Russia's GDP is negligible. Seriously, is even lower than Italy's. The strategy from Russia is to pump and hype: great army, great technology, great resources, nuclear power... yet when they are faced with an obstacle all that fades away:

- Technology is reliant on western supplies and intellectual property.
- The army is mostly from the 90's and unsuited for modern operations.
- Their new status as invaders and a threat to any border country will damage their exporting capability.
- Their status as sanctioned country will prevent investment in CAPEX, critical to maintain production in the mid term.
- Re "Russia not trying hard" is wrong. It is trying to the limit of the resources that can spare. Russia has managed to make enemies of everyone around (even China is more afraid than friendly) and have to keep their best shots for self defence and to keep their puppets status - thus they have sent to Ukraine everything else.
- Russia's GDP is set to severely shrink. What you call and advantage is actually despotism: keeping the population silent about the economic impact. Russia is looking half good due to sky-high prices of commodities, but that is cyclical not permanent.

I do agree that US has to make sure this war does not pay, but Russia is gone as a superpower and may even not preserve the regional power status for more than a couple of decades as they are unable to sustain the technologic advances.

Well, Russia is already leading the World militarily ...

Not in any manner. The facts on the ground show poor leadership, corruption and very limited applied technology. Russia is applying Sun Tzu's Art of War - "when you are weak, appear strong". All the hype about missiles, ridiculous vehicles like the "Terminator" and other smoke screens do not change the fact that they just cannot advance  without getting killed by the thousands or loosing their best ships the moment they get close to Ukrainian territory.

I have little to say about your interpretation of the will of your imaginary friends.

[swogerino]

Russia the next dominant superpower,what kind of joke is this?Saying that the sanctions have not hit Russian economy is a blatant lie,Russian themselves have asked that they can let the Black Sea ports open in Ukraine to ship the grains in order for the food crisis to stop but Western powers must lift their sanctions.As much as a food crisis may come Western powers will not fall prey of any Russian blackmail and rest assured just after a couple of months or maximum until the end of this year and Russia will be a completely isolated state.

Saying that they are self sufficient is also completely wrong as people from USSR,people who lived at that era told on international news that on Sundays if they eat bread and butter was like a holiday or some major event to them,that is how self sufficient Russia is.