The impact of Russian and Ukrain war on world economy

[DrBeer]

Oil prices continue to increase and Russia is an oil -producing country, my country intends to import oil from Russia, but because there is a war, it is difficult for imports, this is because when there is a war there will be a lot of money and increase inflation so that it will slowly make the world experience a recession .

You are in vain adhering to the approaches of Russian propaganda - lie, stupidly lie, deny reality
The price of oil is EASY to check. In addition to the fact that the price "here and now" has noticeably decreased, the terrorist country is already giving a discount even on this price. About large contracts, I generally keep silent

To prove my position - a graph, from open sources, the cost of oil from terrorists:
There is a spot price on the chart, tell me, where is the PRICE GROWTH on the chart?

[uneng]

Putin was way out of his mind by deciding to invade Ukraine without taking into consideration the consequences of doing so. Not only did he destroyed Russia's credibility and economy, but he also disrupted the current world order. COVID-19 already had a negative effect over supply chains and the global economy, but the invasion made matters worse. Putin won't back down anytime soon especially when his political future is at stake. Giving up on the war now, would mean Putin's regime has weakened.

I'm afraid the world economy will continue to decline until there's no point for recovery. That is unless Europe and the US become self-sufficient from gas and energy reserves. EU should turn its attention to alternative energy sources, while the US should ramp up oil production instead of importing it from other countries. If they do that, most of the world's problems would be solved. Let's hope we see the light at the end of the tunnel by 2023. Just my opinion

Everyone hopes that the economy will recover quickly. And also hope Russia and Ukraine make peace. but it seems it will be very difficult to achieve in the near future. I even recently read the news about a statement from Putin that was broadcast on television. the bottom line is that the war will not end any time soon. it even seems that in Russia there will be conscription. I don't know exactly when. but it looks like the google search keyword 'How to Leave Russia' has improved a lot. and airline tickets for flights out of Russia became sold out. which indicates that many Russian citizens want to leave Russia. whether it was to avoid a military call or for some other reason. I do not know. but the search keyword on google 'How to Leave Russia' is trending, so I think there's a reason.
For more details you can read on the following news site. :
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/flights-out-russia-sell-out-after-putin-orders-partial-call-up-2022-09-21/

We must be prepared with all possibilities that will happen in 2023. because the impact of war on the global economy will clearly be felt. Let's pray the best for all of us.

We pray that the situation doesn't get worse with Putin using nuclear power just because he has become upset since his forces were kicked out from the north of Ukraine. Russian citizens are afraid to be used as cannon fodder by Putin's regime, so they are leaving the country and the big centers. Nobody wants to fight and die in a worthless war which has as goal to stroke a psychopath's ego.

But in case nuclear weapons start being used, I'm afraid there won't be even an economy to care about.

[bittraffic]

Putin was way out of his mind by deciding to invade Ukraine without taking into consideration the consequences of doing so. Not only did he destroyed Russia's credibility and economy, but he also disrupted the current world order. COVID-19 already had a negative effect over supply chains and the global economy, but the invasion made matters worse. Putin won't back down anytime soon especially when his political future is at stake. Giving up on the war now, would mean Putin's regime has weakened.

I'm afraid the world economy will continue to decline until there's no point for recovery. That is unless Europe and the US become self-sufficient from gas and energy reserves. EU should turn its attention to alternative energy sources, while the US should ramp up oil production instead of importing it from other countries. If they do that, most of the world's problems would be solved. Let's hope we see the light at the end of the tunnel by 2023. Just my opinion

Everyone hopes that the economy will recover quickly. And also hope Russia and Ukraine make peace. but it seems it will be very difficult to achieve in the near future. I even recently read the news about a statement from Putin that was broadcast on television. the bottom line is that the war will not end any time soon. it even seems that in Russia there will be conscription. I don't know exactly when. but it looks like the google search keyword 'How to Leave Russia' has improved a lot. and airline tickets for flights out of Russia became sold out. which indicates that many Russian citizens want to leave Russia. whether it was to avoid a military call or for some other reason. I do not know. but the search keyword on google 'How to Leave Russia' is trending, so I think there's a reason.
For more details you can read on the following news site. :
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/flights-out-russia-sell-out-after-putin-orders-partial-call-up-2022-09-21/

We must be prepared with all possibilities that will happen in 2023. because the impact of war on the global economy will clearly be felt. Let's pray the best for all of us.

We pray that the situation doesn't get worse with Putin using nuclear power just because he has become upset since his forces were kicked out from the north of Ukraine. Russian citizens are afraid to be used as cannon fodder by Putin's regime, so they are leaving the country and the big centers. Nobody wants to fight and die in a worthless war which has as goal to stroke a psychopath's ego.

But in case nuclear weapons start being used, I'm afraid there won't be even an economy to care about.

It's just one more push we could have a nuclear war. This is close to an ultimatum also. Soo drunk to power I guess but because he is not bluffing, he could launch one. The terrifying effect of it is that because one drunkard launches his nuclear weapon, every country that has this kind of weapon will also be alarmed and activate protect themselves against their hostile neighbors.

And I'm not Blurfing!!! - Putin.

If EU is serious in not escalating, everyone will also be tiptoeing before it blast into a full-scale war. It feels like there is no declarative statement from US or EU telling it eye to eye to the camera to the public saying this is what we are facing, this is what we do and we are going to talk. Not just a bunch of rhetoric on tv that Putin did this bad and do this worse. 

[Sithara007]

We pray that the situation doesn't get worse with Putin using nuclear power just because he has become upset since his forces were kicked out from the north of Ukraine. Russian citizens are afraid to be used as cannon fodder by Putin's regime, so they are leaving the country and the big centers. Nobody wants to fight and die in a worthless war which has as goal to stroke a psychopath's ego.

But in case nuclear weapons start being used, I'm afraid there won't be even an economy to care about.

This is why the ongoing referendum in four of the Ukrainian regions are important. By second week of October, Putin will declare that these four regions are part of Russia. That will enable him to send conscripts to these regions. Also, it will give an excuse to use nuclear weapons, since he can claim that Russian regions are under attack from NATO. I don't have much hope now. With every passing day, it looks as if we are further sliding towards WW3. If there is actually a WW3, then it will take decades for the global economy to recover.

[Davidvictorson]

What easily comes to mind with all that is going on is the Mad Max movie. I feel bad for the poor and the homeless because they are the ones who are at the bottom of the ladder who are most affected. How can they keep up with the soaring food prices, the rising cost of living? Nothing happens to the rich , they just go on living their lives. This is more than Russia or Ukraine but the politics of Europe and American leaders and their greed.

[Ozero]

We pray that the situation doesn't get worse with Putin using nuclear power just because he has become upset since his forces were kicked out from the north of Ukraine. Russian citizens are afraid to be used as cannon fodder by Putin's regime, so they are leaving the country and the big centers. Nobody wants to fight and die in a worthless war which has as goal to stroke a psychopath's ego.

But in case nuclear weapons start being used, I'm afraid there won't be even an economy to care about.

This is why the ongoing referendum in four of the Ukrainian regions are important. By second week of October, Putin will declare that these four regions are part of Russia. That will enable him to send conscripts to these regions. Also, it will give an excuse to use nuclear weapons, since he can claim that Russian regions are under attack from NATO. I don't have much hope now. With every passing day, it looks as if we are further sliding towards WW3. If there is actually a WW3, then it will take decades for the global economy to recover.

The ongoing "referendum" in the occupied territories of Ukraine is in many ways bringing the start of World War III, and possibly nuclear war, closer. For Ukraine and civilized states, this parody of the referendum will not have any legal consequences. It is held exclusively for the internal audience of Russia, so that there is a reason to throw new "live meat" into the furnace of war. Ukraine has long stated that it will retake its territory regardless of Putin's decisions. However, its implementation and an attempt to annex the occupied territories of Ukraine to the Russian Federation closes the way for further negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. The threat of a Russian nuclear strike will also not affect the determination of Ukrainians to defend their freedom and independence.

[Sithara007]

The ongoing "referendum" in the occupied territories of Ukraine is in many ways bringing the start of World War III, and possibly nuclear war, closer. For Ukraine and civilized states, this parody of the referendum will not have any legal consequences. It is held exclusively for the internal audience of Russia, so that there is a reason to throw new "live meat" into the furnace of war. Ukraine has long stated that it will retake its territory regardless of Putin's decisions. However, its implementation and an attempt to annex the occupied territories of Ukraine to the Russian Federation closes the way for further negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. The threat of a Russian nuclear strike will also not affect the determination of Ukrainians to defend their freedom and independence.

Even at this point, I don't think that Putin is stupid enough to use the nuclear weapons. And he has a lot more options before he even considers such a step. Usage of nuclear weapon is a hard red line, even with Russian allies such as Iran, China and India. Personally, I believe that Russia is waiting for winter to start. They will go on the attack mode by some time in November and till then they will continue to lose territory, especially in the regions of Kharkov and Kherson. The focus of the Russian army is primarily in Donbass, and this means that they are losing territory elsewhere.

[DrBeer]

As you know - the other day, a terrorist country staged an act of economic terror by blowing up their Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 gas pipelines. The goal is primitive - another step to promote the fairy tale "winter will be hard. Why? Because the EU and Germany and France they realized that their "partner" is an absolute degenerate, a terrorist and a pathological liar!As a result, these countries finally and irrevocably break ties with the terrorist country in the framework of gas and oil supplies.

No matter how the terrorists from the Kremlin push, the market shows itself
As they say - Russia goodbye, we will remember you

PS Of course, about the "hard winter" - this is a joke. The real purpose of the terrorist attack on the Nord Stream 1 and Northern Stream 2 gas pipelines is to prevent Russia from paying huge fines for cutting off gas supplies under contracts.

Gas in charts, FOR TODAY....






and Oil brand Urals, spot price, i.e. no discount

[pooya87]

If there is actually a WW3, then it will take decades for the global economy to recover.

I don't think there would be anything left of the world to have an economy

Personally, I believe that Russia is waiting for winter to start. They will go on the attack mode by some time in November and till then they will continue to lose territory, especially in the regions of Kharkov and Kherson. The focus of the Russian army is primarily in Donbass, and this means that they are losing territory elsewhere.

I think they are basically trying to weaken NATO more before they start moving forward (hence waiting for winter). I also don't think they'll let any territories be lost in Kherson region since after the first plan was lost (annex anything west of Dnipro river) the main plan is to cut off Ukraine from the sea and basically reach Moldova by annexing all those regions in the south.
The bombardments of southern targets from Ochakiv to Odesa could be considered a proof of that plan.
Ukrainians haven't have that much success liberating those regions in Kherson front either.

[Abiky]

This is why the ongoing referendum in four of the Ukrainian regions are important. By second week of October, Putin will declare that these four regions are part of Russia. That will enable him to send conscripts to these regions. Also, it will give an excuse to use nuclear weapons, since he can claim that Russian regions are under attack from NATO. I don't have much hope now. With every passing day, it looks as if we are further sliding towards WW3. If there is actually a WW3, then it will take decades for the global economy to recover.

Putin keeps pushing on the war, even though his country has already been severely affected with the sanctions. I guess he has some imperialistic agenda to rule the world. Don't think for a second that he's going to stop after he conquers Ukraine. It's possible Putin will target Finland, Sweden, Georgia, and other countries within the eurozone to expand Russian influence around the world. Western countries should not take Putin's words lightly when he said he was not "bluffing" about using nuclear weapons on Ukraine. After all, he's known to be unpredictable at times. A nuclear conflict will further deteriorate the global economy to a point where there's no room for recovery. Either the EU and the US step up to the game or the world would be nothing but doomed. Let's see how everything will turn out to be during the remainder of 2022. Just my opinion

[Sithara007]

I think they are basically trying to weaken NATO more before they start moving forward (hence waiting for winter). I also don't think they'll let any territories be lost in Kherson region since after the first plan was lost (annex anything west of Dnipro river) the main plan is to cut off Ukraine from the sea and basically reach Moldova by annexing all those regions in the south.
The bombardments of southern targets from Ochakiv to Odesa could be considered a proof of that plan.
Ukrainians haven't have that much success liberating those regions in Kherson front either.

Ukrainians are putting all their effort in Kharkov region and in Kherson the frontlines haven't moved much. And Kherson is very flat terrain. Conducting an offensive operation is going to be risky for either sides. The Ukrainians are not going to care as long as they conquer Lyman and other strategic cities in the Kharkov-Lugask-Donetsk region. Lyman will be recaptured either by today or tomorrow, as it is already under siege.  This city was strategically located along the supply lines to Donestk and will give a big advantage to the Ukrainians.

[Ozero]

I think they are basically trying to weaken NATO more before they start moving forward (hence waiting for winter). I also don't think they'll let any territories be lost in Kherson region since after the first plan was lost (annex anything west of Dnipro river) the main plan is to cut off Ukraine from the sea and basically reach Moldova by annexing all those regions in the south.
The bombardments of southern targets from Ochakiv to Odesa could be considered a proof of that plan.
Ukrainians haven't have that much success liberating those regions in Kherson front either.

Ukrainians are putting all their effort in Kharkov region and in Kherson the frontlines haven't moved much. And Kherson is very flat terrain. Conducting an offensive operation is going to be risky for either sides. The Ukrainians are not going to care as long as they conquer Lyman and other strategic cities in the Kharkov-Lugask-Donetsk region. Lyman will be recaptured either by today or tomorrow, as it is already under siege.  This city was strategically located along the supply lines to Donestk and will give a big advantage to the Ukrainians.

The Kharkiv region of Ukraine has long since been liberated from Russian invaders. The 5,000-strong group of Russians in Liman was partially destroyed and partially taken prisoner. Only a small part fled towards Kremennaya, where they ended up in another encirclement of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Also in the evening, on the first of October, the Armed Forces of Ukraine launched a successful offensive in the south, breaking through the Russian defenses in several places. The next day, the second of October, they advanced up to 27 kilometers. Now the offensive continues and soon, apparently, the 20,000-strong group of troops of the remnants of the Russian regular army will be defeated. She has been surrounded under the fire of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for a long time. The Ukrainians first destroyed ammunition depots, command posts, as well as accumulations of Russian manpower and equipment, so that there would be fewer losses during the subsequent offensive. This explains why the offensive was not so swift on this sector of the front. It was foolish to attack the well-fortified and stuffed Russian positions head-on. After their methodical weakening, the process went more quickly.

[DrBeer]

I think they are basically trying to weaken NATO more before they start moving forward (hence waiting for winter). I also don't think they'll let any territories be lost in Kherson region since after the first plan was lost (annex anything west of Dnipro river) the main plan is to cut off Ukraine from the sea and basically reach Moldova by annexing all those regions in the south.
The bombardments of southern targets from Ochakiv to Odesa could be considered a proof of that plan.
Ukrainians haven't have that much success liberating those regions in Kherson front either.

Ukrainians are putting all their effort in Kharkov region and in Kherson the frontlines haven't moved much. And Kherson is very flat terrain. Conducting an offensive operation is going to be risky for either sides. The Ukrainians are not going to care as long as they conquer Lyman and other strategic cities in the Kharkov-Lugask-Donetsk region. Lyman will be recaptured either by today or tomorrow, as it is already under siege.  This city was strategically located along the supply lines to Donestk and will give a big advantage to the Ukrainians.

When I read you, I always have a smile on my face It seems that you have the Internet, free access to information, but you do not notice reality, and in principle, you constantly study only information only from Russian propaganda resources

The situation has changed, and now you can see:
1. Breakthrough by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the defense lines of the army of Russian terrorists. (see the map, with the real dynamics of the liberation of Ukrainian lands from the Nazis and Russian terrorists)
https://deepstatemap.live/#8/48.292/35.145

2. Breakthrough by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the defense lines of the army of Russian terrorists, in the Luhansk region

3. Tantrums of Russian propagandists about "where are our victories, why are our troops fleeing?!" Do not believe? Google it! Simonyan, and others are already preparing the ground for saying "yes, we were always against the war against Ukraine, it was Putin who forced us!"

4. Mobilization in the country with the "second army in the world"!
And not of a high-quality mobilization staff, but of the rabble and marginals, to whom the military commissars are telling that these one-time "warriors" need to ask their girls and mothers for women's hygienic tampons and women's pads, in order to have at least some means to stop the blood Here video from the barracks of Russian mobilized disposable terrorists. Turn on subtitles - make sure
https://youtu.be/cZVToAou7jc

[Sithara007]

The tweet from Elon Musk has attracted a lot of criticism within Ukraine:

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1576994262226702336
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1576998577758666752

And within minutes, Oleksii Arestovych came up with this reply:

https://twitter.com/arestovych/status/1577026215013019648

And let's not forget that Elon Musk is the same guy who spent hundreds of millions of USD, to provide StarLink and other accessories to the Ukrainian forces. And he didn't said anything positive about Russia in his tweets. All he did was to ask for a ceasefire. Arestovych created some very powerful enemies today and it is not going to end up well for him (especially if GOP wrests back control of the senate next month).

[DrBeer]

The tweet from Elon Musk has attracted a lot of criticism within Ukraine:

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1576994262226702336
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1576998577758666752

And within minutes, Oleksii Arestovych came up with this reply:

https://twitter.com/arestovych/status/1577026215013019648

And let's not forget that Elon Musk is the same guy who spent hundreds of millions of USD, to provide StarLink and other accessories to the Ukrainian forces. And he didn't said anything positive about Russia in his tweets. All he did was to ask for a ceasefire. Arestovych created some very powerful enemies today and it is not going to end up well for him (especially if GOP wrests back control of the senate next month).

It will be very interesting to see your reaction, for example, when Britain, which has done a lot for India, says that India should consider giving some territories to Iran and China! Well, to remove the tension that has existed for many decades.
And the same Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh are historical territories of China!
Will your reaction be the same or is it "a different case, and everything is completely different there"?
I guess you'll try to ignore the question, either "you get it all wrong" or "you don't know what you're talking about". But you can surprise!

[beej]

The impact is prominently felt worldwide, its
an added perturbation to everyone since the
pandemic started. Besides markets and economies,
some analyst are theorizing that the continuing
situation with Ukraine and Russia is a progenitor   
to a new world war. It used to sound dubious and unreal
as modern conflicts on such likely matters are dealt
with diplomacy and interventions throughout the years.
But more and more as the war continues to progress
and escalate further, that reality of a bigger war seems
to slowly take shape. Even with the sanctions imposed
against Russia, it hasn’t slowed down. This war impacts
us all, it affects modern society and economies everywhere.

[Desscount]

World economy was already under severe stres during çovid . Post çovid this stress was supposed to get relieved to some extent, however Russia Ukraine war has actually not allowed that to happen,the current inflation rates, the current financial conditions of market seem very worrisome. We are walking on tight rope and Amy major crash can lead to a recession.

It's true I think when Covid 19 begins to subside the economy can rise even though in fact the economy at that time began to rise and it didn't last long,
after all the war between Russia and Ukraine really had a big impact,
either I don't know when this will last

[Sithara007]

It will be very interesting to see your reaction, for example, when Britain, which has done a lot for India, says that India should consider giving some territories to Iran and China! Well, to remove the tension that has existed for many decades.
And the same Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh are historical territories of China!
Will your reaction be the same or is it "a different case, and everything is completely different there"?
I guess you'll try to ignore the question, either "you get it all wrong" or "you don't know what you're talking about". But you can surprise!

In India we don't have anyone speaking Iranian (Farsi) or Chinese. So the situation is not comparable. And no part of India was ever part of either Iran or China. I want to know what is wrong in what Elon suggested. IMO, this is the only viable solution, which can bring an immediate end to this conflict.

This is his suggestion:

1. The will of the people who live in the Donbas & Crimea should decide whether they’re part of Russia or Ukraine
2. Redo elections of annexed regions under UN supervision. Russia leaves if that is will of the people
3. Crimea formally part of Russia, as it has been since 1783 (until Khrushchev’s mistake)
4. Water supply to Crimea assured
5. Ukraine remains neutral

Personally I don't find anything wrong with any of his suggestions. And we already have the example of Kosovo. Why can't the same approach that was used in Kosovo, not applied to Donbass?

[DrBeer]

It will be very interesting to see your reaction, for example, when Britain, which has done a lot for India, says that India should consider giving some territories to Iran and China! Well, to remove the tension that has existed for many decades.
And the same Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh are historical territories of China!
Will your reaction be the same or is it "a different case, and everything is completely different there"?
I guess you'll try to ignore the question, either "you get it all wrong" or "you don't know what you're talking about". But you can surprise!

In India we don't have anyone speaking Iranian (Farsi) or Chinese. So the situation is not comparable. And no part of India was ever part of either Iran or China. I want to know what is wrong in what Elon suggested. IMO, this is the only viable solution, which can bring an immediate end to this conflict.

This is his suggestion:

1. The will of the people who live in the Donbas & Crimea should decide whether they’re part of Russia or Ukraine
2. Redo elections of annexed regions under UN supervision. Russia leaves if that is will of the people
3. Crimea formally part of Russia, as it has been since 1783 (until Khrushchev’s mistake)
4. Water supply to Crimea assured
5. Ukraine remains neutral

/quote]


And let's - we in OUR country, according to OUR legislation, will decide? And not you, or Russia?

Personally I don't find anything wrong with any of his suggestions. And we already have the example of Kosovo. Why can't the same approach that was used in Kosovo, not applied to Donbass?

Ah ah ah... Dear Sithara007 ! Let me enlighten you how many languages ​​are there in India? Since you do not own the situation, or are trying to hide it!
So - OFFICIAL: In India they speak 447 different languages, 2000 dialects. The Constitution of India stipulates that Hindi and English are the two languages ​​of the national government, that is, the state languages.

Now try to explain:
1. Why do not all of them (447) have the status of a state language? But only Hindi and English? Just don't say that the basic laws of India are the main ones in India!
2. Is the official language English? Do you border with Britain? Do you have "historical ties with Britain"? So Britain has the right to annex part of India to Great Britain?
3. since the groups speaking 447 different languages ​​do not have the status of the state language, does it mean that the territories where they are spoken have the right to self-determination and secession from India? They are oppressed! And for example, Pakistan, can they take them into their possession by holding a fake referendum?


No need to say that "in Ukraine it's not like that at all"

[Sithara007]

^^^ In India there are dozens of languages with official regional status. The topic is different. Elon put forward some proposals to end the war. We are analyzing whether these proposals are feasible or not. And also whether these proposals, if put in place can stop the war immediately. IMO, if the proposals are put in place, then it can result in an immediate end to the war. Let the people of Donbass vote on whether they want to remain in Ukraine or not. Why you are afraid about it? The Russians seems to be OK with this proposal.