2023 Oscar Awards betting and discussions

[bbc.reporter]

All Quiet on the Western Front is nominated in 9 categories. I am shocked because every critic was quiet about this movie until BAFTA nominations were announced. The skeptical me thinks that the members of the Academy of motion picture arts and sciences have an agenda to help stop the war in Ukraine hehe. They will vote for this movie to win as much oscars as possible to bring the winners on the stage to deliver their antiwar speeches hehehe.

Despite being nominated in many categories, I don't expect this one to actually win many Oscars as there is some tough competition in each one of those. After all, their are the favorites in only the Best International Feature category, and even there they are not the 100% locked.

I plan to watch it this weekend to finally see how good it is compared to that 1930 masterpiece.

Did you watch All Quiet on the Western Front already? It might win for the best cinematography hehe. The sportsbooks already have this as the favorite, however. I thought some comments in this thread that said it had odds of 5.00 was true. I was not very happy to see the odds was only 1.50. But it might have a better chance than expected in the best adapted screenplay category. This is where they can tell the speech and spread the academy's antiwar agenda hehehehe.

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[Rikafip]

Did you watch All Quiet on the Western Front already?

Unfortunately not yet. Plan was to watch it this weekend but on Friday I saw one episode of Andoran, got hooked on it and decided to binge the whole season over the weekend. I plan to sort that out this week as I've been postponing for way too long (initial plan was to watch it on the same day it premiered on Netflix and we see how that turned out)

It might win for the best cinematography hehe. The sportsbooks already have this as the favorite, however.

Hah, I thought that Elvis is a favorite, which would make it a first woman (afaik) to ever win an Oscar in that category. I am somewhat  surprised that Top Gun didn't get nominated and I would like to see Banshees as I really enjoyed that movie visually.

I thought some comments in this thread that said it had odds of 5.00 was true. I was not very happy to see the odds was only 1.50. But it might have a better chance than expected in the best adapted screenplay category.

Maybe those were the old odds and now they changed. I see that odds on Everything Everywhere All at Once keeps dropping as well, now its ~1.45.

[Cryptock]

Did you watch All Quiet on the Western Front already?

Unfortunately not yet. Plan was to watch it this weekend but on Friday I saw one episode of Andoran, got hooked on it and decided to binge the whole season over the weekend. I plan to sort that out this week as I've been postponing for way too long (initial plan was to watch it on the same day it premiered on Netflix and we see how that turned out)

It might win for the best cinematography hehe. The sportsbooks already have this as the favorite, however.

Hah, I thought that Elvis is a favorite, which would make it a first woman (afaik) to ever win an Oscar in that category. I am somewhat  surprised that Top Gun didn't get nominated and I would like to see Banshees as I really enjoyed that movie visually.

I thought some comments in this thread that said it had odds of 5.00 was true. I was not very happy to see the odds was only 1.50. But it might have a better chance than expected in the best adapted screenplay category.

Maybe those were the old odds and now they changed. I see that odds on Everything Everywhere All at Once keeps dropping as well, now its ~1.45.

Is all quiet on the Netflix as well? I didnt have an idea
I will look into it. And will write my views over them

[STT]

If you can figure out whatever trendy cause is belle of the ball this year you could raise the odds of guessing who will win the prize.   Quite a large part of Oscar wins is supporting whatever possible social dynamic might be unfolded within a film, whoever does it best in the most artistic way etc.

Top Gun Im not surprised by especially, it is a remake and nothing new or edgy in its story exactly.   There is a kind of promotional element they are looking for, 'never before' type gushy award type thing so Top Gun was a technicals or other category nomination possibly but not the main awards.   Thats how I look at all the firms, there is the award to the film but also the opposite in that Oscars wants reflected glory also for a film that is memorable or unique in some kind of way, most obviously first of that kind of film/story.

[bitgolden]

I think Fabelmans would probably win, and Brendon will probably win as well, those are locked in my mind if you ask me, but maybe I am wrong.

I know that people do not believe this, but the favourites usually win and I think that it will be the same way this year again, we are going to see the favourites win again.

But aren't you contradicting yourself here? First you said that The Fabelmans will probably win, while the actual favorite at the moment is Everything Everywhere All at Once (and you said that favorites usually win). Honestly, despite it being a favorite, I simply don't see them winning Best Picture award. Maybe I am biased because I disliked movie so much that I couldn't even finish it, but I just can't bet on it ot see it winning via preferential vote.

I am, and that's a bit of a tough situation for me. Fabelmans were the favourites, and now they are not, I said favourites would win, and they were favourites, so at that time I was right, and now they are not suddenly and I have no idea why. Maybe because EEAO won so many awards that people expect them to win the Oscars too? That could be reason but when favourites change, that creates a little bit of chaos.

If Fabelmans stayed the favourites then me saying they will win makes sense, or if EEAO was the favourite from start then they would be the eventual winners too. But in a situation where favourite changes hand? That causes a little bit of trouble for me, now I don't know who will win . But, 100% sure it will be either one or the other.

[Rikafip]

Is all quiet on the Netflix as well? I didnt have an idea

Yep, its on Netflix for quite some time. As a matter of fact, it even 'premiered' there.

Top Gun Im not surprised by especially, it is a remake and nothing new or edgy in its story exactly.

Top Gun was not remake but a sequel and there is a big difference between those tho things. But even if movie was remake, its not the reason for Academy not to award it with Best Picture Oscar. For example, last year's winner in that category (CODA) was a remake of the french movie The Bélier Family and there were other remakes in the past that achieved the same. By the way, not saying that Top Gun should win it, just saying that Academy doesn't care much if movie is remake or not as long as it fits their agenda.

[Sithara007]

What happened to The Fabelmans?

It started as the favorite to win Oscar for best picture, but now it is being given odds of 15.00. I posted the odds from stake.com a few days ago. But odds have drastically changed since then. Latest odds are as follows (please compare them with my previous post):

Best picture:

Everything Everywhere All at Once: 1.44
The Banshees of Inisherin: 3.75
Top Gun: Maverick: 13.00
The Fabelmans: 15.00
Tár: 36.00
All Quiet on the Western Front: 36.00
Women Talking: 81.00
Elvis: 101.00
Avatar: The Way of Water: 101.00
Triangle of Sadness: 101.00

The odds for best actor (from Stake.com):

Brendan Fraser: 1.61
Colin Farrell: 3.75
Austin Butler: 4.00
Paul Mescal: 26.00
Bill Nighy: 36.00

Thanks to Rikafip for posting the list of nominations. I was glad to see Avatar: The Way of Water getting nominated for the best picture. With box office collection in billions, it at least deserves a few nominations. In terms of odds, Everything Everywhere All at Once is far ahead of all the other films. I checked Stake.com, and the odds are as follows:

Best picture:

Everything Everywhere All at Once: 1.61
The Banshees of Inisherin: 3.25
Top Gun: Maverick: 11.00
The Fabelmans: 12.00
Tár: 36.00
All Quiet on the Western Front: 36.00
Women Talking: 66.00
Elvis: 101.00
Avatar: The Way of Water: 101.00
Triangle of Sadness: 101.00

The odds for best actor (from Stake.com):

Brendan Fraser: 1.61
Colin Farrell: 3.50
Austin Butler: 4.25
Paul Mescal: 26.00
Bill Nighy: 36.00

[Rikafip]

What happened to The Fabelmans?

It started as the favorite to win Oscar for best picture, but now it is being given odds of 15.00. I posted the odds from stake.com a few days ago. But odds have drastically changed since then. Latest odds are as follows (please compare them with my previous post):

That's a good question and I have no idea. I would somewhat understand if it bombed at other awards (all that affects the odds in the end) but it didn't and while The Fabelmans odds kept going up, Everything Everywhere All At Once kept going down. Even though its quite original in its concept (even too original for my taste), under all that chaos and parallel universe stuff its just another woke drama about accepting the different people and we all know how much Academy loves those.

I somehow hoped that with CODA winning Best Picture award last year Academy filled bs quota for a year or two so we may actually see agenda free movie winning an award this but I guess I was too optimistic.

[wiss19]

As a person who has watched everything everywhere all at once, that wasn't really a movie I liked, maybe that's just my personal thing and I didn't understand it, but I try to watch at least one new movie a day, so I feel like I understand about movies even if just a bit, I have watched over 3000 movies so far in my life, and I am not saying I am a critic or I understand better than Oscars jury or anything like that, but seriously... it is just not the type of movie that wins.

By this logic, they could have given best picture to avengers end game as well, it was a great story writing and amazing cinematography and great cgi etc etc, it had everything this one has but even better. Definitely would be disappointment if that movie wins.

[bbc.reporter]

All Quiet on the Western Front is nominated in 9 categories. I am shocked because every critic was quiet about this movie until BAFTA nominations were announced. The skeptical me thinks that the members of the Academy of motion picture arts and sciences have an agenda to help stop the war in Ukraine hehe. They will vote for this movie to win as much oscars as possible to bring the winners on the stage to deliver their antiwar speeches hehehe.

Despite being nominated in many categories, I don't expect this one to actually win many Oscars as there is some tough competition in each one of those. After all, their are the favorites in only the Best International Feature category, and even there they are not the 100% locked.

I plan to watch it this weekend to finally see how good it is compared to that 1930 masterpiece.

Do not be quite so certain on this not winning the Oscar for the best picture award. This might be this year's Coda hehehe. The best tactic to bet on this is to bet a small amount before BAFTA then bet again if it wins the best picture award in BAFTA or the best adapted screenplay. On 2022, Coda was something similar, it won for best adapted screenplay in BAFTA and won for best picture in the Oscars.

However, if it wins an award for a technical category, it might increase the chance to win on the technical categories in the Oscars.

[Sithara007]

Do not be quite so certain on this not winning the Oscar for the best picture award. This might be this year's Coda hehehe. The best tactic to bet on this is to bet a small amount before BAFTA then bet again if it wins the best picture award in BAFTA or the best adapted screenplay. On 2022, Coda was something similar, it won for best adapted screenplay in BAFTA and won for best picture in the Oscars.

However, if it wins an award for a technical category, it might increase the chance to win on the technical categories in the Oscars.

We still have approx. 40 days to go for the announcement and the odds can change a lot till then. But I don't understand your enthusiasm towards All Quiet on the Western Front. Over time, the odds have worsened for this movie and now most of the sportsbooks are giving ~36.00 for this one. Everything Everywhere All at Once remains as the overwhelming favorite. I would be really surprised if any other movie get declared as the best picture on 13th March, when the announcement will be formally made.

BTW, who do you guys think will win the Oscar for best actress? I believe Cate Blanchett has the maximum chance. She is being given better odds when compared to Michelle Yeoh (1.66 vs 2.20). BTW, I saw the movie Decision to Leave. Tang Wei's performance was exceptional. But none of the gambling sites have given good odds for her.

[Rikafip]

Do not be quite so certain on this not winning the Oscar for the best picture award. This might be this year's Coda hehehe.

From what I remember, odds on CODA were never as big as they are now on All Quiet on the Western Front. And on top of that, CODA was in line with Hollywood agenda which is also an important thing and as added bonus, so is Everything Everywhere All at Once which is one of the reasons why its the favorite to win Best Picture award.

BTW, who do you guys think will win the Oscar for best actress? I believe Cate Blanchett has the maximum chance. She is being given better odds when compared to Michelle Yeoh (1.66 vs 2.20). BTW, I saw the movie Decision to Leave. Tang Wei's performance was exceptional. But none of the gambling sites have given good odds for her.

I saw all the three movies and imho Cate Blanchett did the best job in Tar so I think 1.66 on her is a pretty good odd, while as a film I personally liked Decision to Leave the most (I am big fan of Park Chan-wook and eevrything he made so far). With that being said, my gut feeling tells me that Everything Everywhere All at Once might reap the Oscar awards this year so I can definitely see Michelle Yeoh winning an award too.

[Cryptock]

Is all quiet on the Netflix as well? I didnt have an idea

Yep, its on Netflix for quite some time. As a matter of fact, it even 'premiered' there.

Top Gun Im not surprised by especially, it is a remake and nothing new or edgy in its story exactly.

Top Gun was not remake but a sequel and there is a big difference between those tho things. But even if movie was remake, its not the reason for Academy not to award it with Best Picture Oscar. For example, last year's winner in that category (CODA) was a remake of the french movie The Bélier Family and there were other remakes in the past that achieved the same. By the way, not saying that Top Gun should win it, just saying that Academy doesn't care much if movie is remake or not as long as it fits their agenda.

Thank you for your message  - I must watch this asap.
You are right although Top Gun is a sequel - but it did a good business on the box office. Correct me if I am wrong.

[STT]

Remake might not disqualify and also sequel but I'd stick it down as being a point against a win, nothing is absolute but it doesnt help the case very often to put it that way is quite right imo.

actual favorite at the moment is Everything Everywhere All at Once

I wasnt that impressed personally, outside of the complexity of the story and perhaps originality.  I rate it average, I definitely didnt dislike the story but for in-depth or ground breaking story making I didnt find it exceptional so I will really struggle to bet on this choice personally.  Obviously not about me its the votes that go into the Oscar win, I have to guess on that body of opinion but its hard for me to weigh in that choice as credible right now.  Sometimes nominations are done just so they are on the list, the actual chance of the win wasn't there even with a popular film that is not enough.   Going to have to think about this one but for now its a no imo.

[alegotardo]

Remake might not disqualify and also sequel but I'd stick it down as being a point against a win, nothing is absolute but it doesnt help the case very often to put it that way is quite right imo.

actual favorite at the moment is Everything Everywhere All at Once

It is impressive how this feature film, which was shot in just 38 days at the beginning of the covid pandemic, with a low budget of more than 14 million and a team of 9 people in digital effects (which are many) managed to arrive at such an exciting work and well done to the point of becoming, deservedly, the favorite for the main Oscar prize and 10 more nominations.

Another fact that favors this film is the great pressure that the Oscars are having to award more stories by NON-white people, because when we see that among the nominees for Actor and Actress there are very few blacks represented, foreign, black, Asian actors , etc. almost always stay in the supporting categories.

[bbc.reporter]

Do not be quite so certain on this not winning the Oscar for the best picture award. This might be this year's Coda hehehe. The best tactic to bet on this is to bet a small amount before BAFTA then bet again if it wins the best picture award in BAFTA or the best adapted screenplay. On 2022, Coda was something similar, it won for best adapted screenplay in BAFTA and won for best picture in the Oscars.

However, if it wins an award for a technical category, it might increase the chance to win on the technical categories in the Oscars.

We still have approx. 40 days to go for the announcement and the odds can change a lot till then. But I don't understand your enthusiasm towards All Quiet on the Western Front. Over time, the odds have worsened for this movie and now most of the sportsbooks are giving ~36.00 for this one. Everything Everywhere All at Once remains as the overwhelming favorite. I would be really surprised if any other movie get declared as the best picture on 13th March, when the announcement will be formally made.

I am only speculating that the war in Ukraine will be Hollywood's leading agenda on the awarding ceremomies on March. They like doing this every year hehehe. How would those antiwar speeches be heard if a movie that shows the terrors of war does not win an important category?

In any case, we will know after the BAFTA winners are announced on February 24. Other important dates for Oscar bettors are Director's Guild Awards on February 18, Actor's Guild Awards on February 25 and Oscars final voting on March 2 where information might be leaked.

[Cryptock]

Do not be quite so certain on this not winning the Oscar for the best picture award. This might be this year's Coda hehehe. The best tactic to bet on this is to bet a small amount before BAFTA then bet again if it wins the best picture award in BAFTA or the best adapted screenplay. On 2022, Coda was something similar, it won for best adapted screenplay in BAFTA and won for best picture in the Oscars.

However, if it wins an award for a technical category, it might increase the chance to win on the technical categories in the Oscars.

We still have approx. 40 days to go for the announcement and the odds can change a lot till then. But I don't understand your enthusiasm towards All Quiet on the Western Front. Over time, the odds have worsened for this movie and now most of the sportsbooks are giving ~36.00 for this one. Everything Everywhere All at Once remains as the overwhelming favorite. I would be really surprised if any other movie get declared as the best picture on 13th March, when the announcement will be formally made.

I am only speculating that the war in Ukraine will be Hollywood's leading agenda on the awarding ceremomies on March. They like doing this every year hehehe. How would those antiwar speeches be heard if a movie that shows the terrors of war does not win an important category?

In any case, we will know after the BAFTA winners are announced on February 24. Other important dates for Oscar bettors are Director's Guild Awards on February 18, Actor's Guild Awards on February 25 and Oscars final voting on March 2 where information might be leaked.

I agree to the point that the Hollywood is using Ukraine to gain their benefits but at the end Ukraine will be left with the aid and blood money and nothing more and nothing less. This is what we have seen so far since our childhood - the superpowers keep destroying weak counties and test their weapons.
Be it Afghanistan - Syria - Palestine or Ukraine - the story is same - the skin is different.

[Rikafip]

I am only speculating that the war in Ukraine will be Hollywood's leading agenda on the awarding ceremomies on March. They like doing this every year hehehe. How would those antiwar speeches be heard if a movie that shows the terrors of war does not win an important category?

If that's the goal, they can easily do that while giving it an Oscar for the best foreign movie, as it has a good chance of winning in that category.

By the way, I finally saw it yesterday and while it was a good film I can't say it had the effect on my I thought it will. Maybe because I already saw 1930 version so I kinda new what to expect. Tehnical part of the movie was excellent as it looked very realistic and gritty (loved the action scenes) with very good cinematography so it could definitely scoop a couple of Oscars in that departments as well. I honestly don't remember last time I saw some European movie looking so good. Overall, one of the better WW1 movies around and definitely worth watching.

For me personally still not the best movie among the nominees (Banshees are still the best) but I wouldn't mind if it miraculously wins an Oscar in Best Picture category.

[bbc.reporter]

@Rikafip. Agreed! It will certainly win for the best foreign film. The odds suggests this hehehe, however, because of the speculation that Hollywood will be on a antiwar agenda, the speech will be more heard if this can win one of the important categories. If the director also wrote the screenplay, it might be voted for best adapted screenplay hehehe. For best cinematography, it is also the favorite already but this category is a technical one. More important are best movie, best director, best screenplay and winners for the actors and actresses.

[Sithara007]

@Rikafip. Agreed! It will certainly win for the best foreign film. The odds suggests this hehehe, however, because of the speculation that Hollywood will be on a antiwar agenda, the speech will be more heard if this can win one of the important categories. If the director also wrote the screenplay, it might be voted for best adapted screenplay hehehe. For best cinematography, it is also the favorite already but this category is a technical one. More important are best movie, best director, best screenplay and winners for the actors and actresses.

I got these odds from Stake, for the best foreign film:

All Quiet on the Western Front: 1.08
Argentina, 1985: 10.00
EO: 12.00
The Quiet Girl: 15.00
Close: 31.00

As you can see, All Quiet on the Western Front is far ahead of everyone else and is given more than 90% probability of winning. With such high odds, I don't think any other film stands a chance in this category.