sgbett
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June 10, 2014, 08:56:33 PM |
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I think... ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2F3r5nSrbl.png&t=663&c=1I9qsIL0-HgT1g) ... really banking on the next bull run ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) quite the opposite old bean! If the price does nothing, i'll be lucky to escape with my underwear intact.
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"A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution" - Satoshi Nakamoto*my posts are not investment advice*
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sgbett
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June 10, 2014, 08:57:00 PM |
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... really banking on the next bull run ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) I don't mind losing if the exchange rate goes to high ![Grin](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/grin.gif) I'm the double or quits strategy hehe
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"A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution" - Satoshi Nakamoto*my posts are not investment advice*
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dnaleor
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June 10, 2014, 08:57:39 PM |
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You're playing it safe I see ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) I thought I would be in the red for the intervals around the current exchange rate. This is a really great surprise to see I will get green positive points ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif)
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wachtwoord
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June 10, 2014, 08:59:08 PM |
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Between $501 and $631 I'm positive again and between $631 and $709 I'll take a big step towards green territory ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) As said before: above $1k and I'm out.
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dnaleor
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June 10, 2014, 09:09:46 PM |
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Between $501 and $631 I'm positive again and between $631 and $709 I'll take a big step towards green territory ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) As said before: above $1k and I'm out. I really don't inderstand how you manage to always be in such small intervals to get positive points. I think above 700 USD is a no brainer for the end of the month... Anyway, good luck ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif)
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wachtwoord
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June 10, 2014, 09:17:18 PM |
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Between $501 and $631 I'm positive again and between $631 and $709 I'll take a big step towards green territory ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) As said before: above $1k and I'm out. I really don't inderstand how you manage to always be in such small intervals to get positive points. I think above 700 USD is a no brainer for the end of the month... Anyway, good luck ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif) I hope price is well above $700 by the end of the month. My participation in this contest is a hedge against price stagnation (subsidized by Risto's contribution).
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sgbett
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June 10, 2014, 10:05:29 PM |
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wow this thread feels so cheap and scammy in its new home ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif) plus i have to bookmark it now to even find it!!!
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"A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution" - Satoshi Nakamoto*my posts are not investment advice*
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dnaleor
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June 10, 2014, 10:07:42 PM |
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wow this thread feels so cheap and scammy in its new home ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif) plus i have to bookmark it now to even find it!!! ![Sad](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/sad.gif) I don't like the new home...
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wachtwoord
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June 10, 2014, 10:13:42 PM |
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wow this thread feels so cheap and scammy in its new home ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif) plus i have to bookmark it now to even find it!!! ![Sad](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/sad.gif) I don't like the new home... Where was it before? I always navigate by bookmarks and "unread posts" and never use the forum category functionality.
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sgbett
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June 10, 2014, 11:34:25 PM |
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It was in spec sub forum, where I spend about 83.4% of my time ![Cheesy](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/cheesy.gif)
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"A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution" - Satoshi Nakamoto*my posts are not investment advice*
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Foxpup
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June 11, 2014, 05:44:29 AM |
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Finally! Orange numbers! ![Grin](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/grin.gif) Price Final Score after Round 2 < $0.079 < -20 OOPS! $0.079 - $0.112 -10.06 - -0.24 $0.112 - $2.239 +0.24 - +8.35 $2.239 - $3.981 -5.68 - -0.05 > $3.981 < -20 OOPS! I'm positive as long as the price stays between $0.112 and $2.239. I get the absolute maximum points this round (+7.81) if the price is between $0.316 and $0.355. Still "too bearish"? My "bullish" maximum (+4.62) is for the range $1.000 - $1.122. Think we can get there? I ascribed the highest probability (this round) to the range $0.708 - $0.794, scoring a measly +0.80 points for this round. Pretty chart coming soon.
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Will pretend to do unspeakable things (while actually eating a taco) for bitcoins: 1K6d1EviQKX3SVKjPYmJGyWBb1avbmCFM4I am not on the scammers' paradise known as Telegram! Do not believe anyone claiming to be me off-forum without a signed message from the above address! Accept no excuses and make no exceptions!
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wachtwoord
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June 14, 2014, 12:40:18 PM |
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If the price ends the month between 0.56234 and 0.63095 this month I'm going to score +6.01 (and reach a +2.49 aggregate score after my lousy first round).
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rpietila (OP)
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June 14, 2014, 01:01:48 PM |
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If the price ends the month between 0.56234 and 0.63095 this month I'm going to score +6.01 (and reach a +2.49 aggregate score after my lousy first round).
...after which it feels all the worse to be eliminated in August ![Tongue](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/tongue.gif)
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HIM TVA Dragon, AOK-GM, Emperor of the Earth, Creator of the World, King of Crypto Kingdom, Lord of Malla, AOD-GEN, SA-GEN5, Ministry of Plenty (Join NOW!), Professor of Economics and Theology, Ph.D, AM, Chairman, Treasurer, Founder, CEO, 3*MG-2, 82*OHK, NKP, WTF, FFF, etc(x3)
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bluemoon
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June 14, 2014, 01:09:27 PM |
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If the price ends the month between 0.56234 and 0.63095 this month I'm going to score +6.01 (and reach a +2.49 aggregate score after my lousy first round).
Sounds good, wachtwoord! I'll have a score of 0.12 if that happens and reach an aggregate 0.67. ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) Anyway, here's the graph for my possible June points, totalling my two June forecasts. ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FR18rxAJ.png%3F1&t=663&c=A0K2Fqx2HrEO-Q) ... assuming my second forecast was accepted: I've only just noticed the entry template has fields for each month's round of forecasts, meaning I shouldn't have overwritten last month's, duh!! Sorry, Risto! Well hopefully I'm positive between $141 - $398, $562 - $631, and $891 - $3162. Below $141 or over $3162 I'm out. Hmm, I'm not quite sure why we're in the gambling section!
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wachtwoord
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June 14, 2014, 03:02:58 PM |
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If the price ends the month between 0.56234 and 0.63095 this month I'm going to score +6.01 (and reach a +2.49 aggregate score after my lousy first round).
...after which it feels all the worse to be eliminated in August ![Tongue](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/tongue.gif) No it will be fine as my Bitcoin investment will appreciate more than I can possibly gain with the contest ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif)
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BetMoose
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June 18, 2014, 01:15:17 AM |
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Hey rpietila,
Just wondering if our platform could maybe help you guys out with all of the manual work you're doing. We may be able to create a private (unlisted or private protected) bet for you guys for free, depending on the factors/variables you would like. Alternatively, just pool it together with the rest of our public users.
I've looked through the method and I don't see a problem with using betmoose to keep track of all this for you.
Let me know
A
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BetMoose.com - Wager on real world events. Profit from predicting the future. Create and share your own contracts.
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dnaleor
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June 29, 2014, 11:52:12 PM |
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just a reminder to you all: don't forget to send your predictions ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif) i'm working on it. And I hope bitcoin goes above 630 before the end of the month ![Grin](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/grin.gif)
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wachtwoord
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June 30, 2014, 12:10:25 AM Last edit: June 30, 2014, 12:41:49 AM by wachtwoord |
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The exact deadline is 23:59 June 30th in GMT right or later? I have some things planned tomorrow ...
EDIT:
I checked, the above is correct.
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Foxpup
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June 30, 2014, 06:47:01 AM |
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Alright, I lied about making a pretty chart. I got caught up in some other stuff I had to do. Speaking of things I have to do, I'm almost done with my predictions for round 3, and will submit it later this evening.
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Will pretend to do unspeakable things (while actually eating a taco) for bitcoins: 1K6d1EviQKX3SVKjPYmJGyWBb1avbmCFM4I am not on the scammers' paradise known as Telegram! Do not believe anyone claiming to be me off-forum without a signed message from the above address! Accept no excuses and make no exceptions!
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dnaleor
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June 30, 2014, 08:02:11 AM Last edit: June 30, 2014, 08:29:02 AM by dnaleor |
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I wait until the bidders in the USMS auction know the result. I'm guessing that price will go up at 9 PM GMT, but want to see it first before I submit ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif)
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