2014 USD/mBTC Price Prediction Contest

[sgbett]

I think...



... really banking on the next bull run

quite the opposite old bean!

If the price does nothing, i'll be lucky to escape with my underwear intact.

[sgbett]

... really banking on the next bull run

I don't mind losing if the exchange rate goes to high 

I'm the double or quits strategy hehe

[dnaleor]

You're playing it safe I see

I thought I would be in the red for the intervals around the current exchange rate. This is a really great surprise to see I will get green positive points

[wachtwoord]

Between $501 and $631 I'm positive again and between $631 and $709 I'll take a big step towards green territory

As said before: above $1k and I'm out.

[dnaleor]

Between $501 and $631 I'm positive again and between $631 and $709 I'll take a big step towards green territory

As said before: above $1k and I'm out.

I really don't inderstand how you manage to always be in such small intervals to get positive points.
I think above 700 USD is a no brainer for the end of the month... Anyway, good luck

[wachtwoord]

Between $501 and $631 I'm positive again and between $631 and $709 I'll take a big step towards green territory

As said before: above $1k and I'm out.

I really don't inderstand how you manage to always be in such small intervals to get positive points.
I think above 700 USD is a no brainer for the end of the month... Anyway, good luck

I hope price is well above $700 by the end of the month. My participation in this contest is a hedge against price stagnation (subsidized by Risto's contribution).

[sgbett]

wow this thread feels so cheap and scammy in its new home

plus i have to bookmark it now to even find it!!!

[dnaleor]

wow this thread feels so cheap and scammy in its new home

plus i have to bookmark it now to even find it!!!

I don't like the new home...

[wachtwoord]

wow this thread feels so cheap and scammy in its new home

plus i have to bookmark it now to even find it!!!

I don't like the new home...

Where was it before? I always navigate by bookmarks and "unread posts" and never use the forum category functionality.

[sgbett]

It was in spec sub forum, where I spend about 83.4% of my time

[Foxpup]

Finally! Orange numbers!

Code:

Price              Final Score after Round 2
< $0.079           < -20 OOPS!
  $0.079 - $0.112  -10.06 - -0.24
  $0.112 - $2.239   +0.24 - +8.35
  $2.239 - $3.981   -5.68 - -0.05
> $3.981           < -20 OOPS!

I'm positive as long as the price stays between $0.112 and $2.239. I get the absolute maximum points this round (+7.81) if the price is between $0.316 and $0.355. Still "too bearish"?

My "bullish" maximum (+4.62) is for the range $1.000 - $1.122. Think we can get there?

I ascribed the highest probability (this round) to the range $0.708 - $0.794, scoring a measly +0.80 points for this round.

Pretty chart coming soon.

[wachtwoord]

If the price ends the month between 0.56234 and 0.63095 this month I'm going to score +6.01 (and reach a +2.49 aggregate score after my lousy first round).

[rpietila]

If the price ends the month between 0.56234 and 0.63095 this month I'm going to score +6.01 (and reach a +2.49 aggregate score after my lousy first round).

...after which it feels all the worse to be eliminated in August 

[bluemoon]

If the price ends the month between 0.56234 and 0.63095 this month I'm going to score +6.01 (and reach a +2.49 aggregate score after my lousy first round).

Sounds good, wachtwoord! I'll have a score of 0.12 if that happens and reach an aggregate 0.67.

Anyway, here's the graph for my possible June points, totalling my two June forecasts.



... assuming my second forecast was accepted: I've only just noticed the entry template has fields for each month's round of forecasts, meaning I shouldn't have overwritten last month's, duh!! Sorry, Risto!

Well hopefully I'm positive between $141 - $398, $562 - $631, and $891 - $3162.

Below $141 or over $3162 I'm out.

Hmm, I'm not quite sure why we're in the gambling section!

[wachtwoord]

If the price ends the month between 0.56234 and 0.63095 this month I'm going to score +6.01 (and reach a +2.49 aggregate score after my lousy first round).

...after which it feels all the worse to be eliminated in August 

No it will be fine as my Bitcoin investment will appreciate more than I can possibly gain with the contest

[BetMoose]

Hey rpietila,

Just wondering if our platform could maybe help you guys out with all of the manual work you're doing. We may be able to create a private (unlisted or private protected) bet for you guys for free, depending on the factors/variables you would like. Alternatively, just pool it together with the rest of our public users.

I've looked through the method and I don't see a problem with using betmoose to keep track of all this for you.

Let me know

A

[dnaleor]

just a reminder to you all: don't forget to send your predictions
i'm working on it.

And I hope bitcoin goes above 630 before the end of the month 

[wachtwoord]

The exact deadline is 23:59 June 30th in GMT right or later? I have some things planned tomorrow ...

EDIT:

I checked, the above is correct.

[Foxpup]

Alright, I lied about making a pretty chart. I got caught up in some other stuff I had to do. Speaking of things I have to do, I'm almost done with my predictions for round 3, and will submit it later this evening.

[dnaleor]

I wait until the bidders in the USMS auction know the result. I'm guessing that price will go up at 9 PM GMT, but want to see it first before I submit