some of you are doing just plain wrong calculations. I saw someone saying:
3 losses are 12.5 or 1 in 8 bets
Thats not how math works, if you have 50% win chance that means
on the long run the wins will be close to the losses, but that is not guaranteed and the 12.5% means that if you slice all wins by sequences (win or lose streaks)
statistically there will be 12.5% of sequences that have 3 wins in a row
You're the one doing wrong calculations. What you say can't be true.
You're saying that if you slice your results into streaks, 12.5% of the streaks will be winning streaks of length 3.
In that case another 12.5% will be losing streaks of length 3,
25% will be WW,
25% will be LL,
50% will be single wins,
50% will be single losses,
and we're already well over 100%.
The truth is that 25% of streaks will be single wins, 25% will be single losses,
12.5% will be double wins, 12.5% will be double losses,
6.25% will be triple wins, 6.25% will be triple losses,
and so on.
Alternatively, perhaps you're slicing the sequence such that each sequence ends with a loss. ie. you don't count WLLL as two sequences (W, LLL - a single win and a triple loss) but as three (WL, L, L - a win sequence of length 1 and two win sequences of length 0)
In that case, 50% of win sequences have a length of 0, 25% are length 1, 12.5% are length 2, and 6.25% are length 3.
Any way you cut it, only 6.25% of sequences will be triple wins.
However, the guy you were quoting wasn't saying that 1 in 8 sequences was a triple loss. He was saying that the chance of 3 50% bets all losing was 1 in 8; and that is true.