Does martingale really works?

[Pursuer]

I tried using martingale for a couple of days in dice gambling, I started with 1 satoshi and gambled all my bitcoins away because I got bored and finally I lost 0.01BTC in total.
the winnings were so small when I started at 1 and the losses were big...

[Erza]

I tried using martingale for a couple of days in dice gambling, I started with 1 satoshi and gambled all my bitcoins away because I got bored and finally I lost 0.01BTC in total.
the winnings were so small when I started at 1 and the losses were big...

Thats why many people are not suggest about using martingale to play it because in the end you will lose all your money so its just wasting time to use

that kind of method because there are no guarantee you will win and you really need a luck to win in gambling 

[Habeler876]

I tried using martingale for a couple of days in dice gambling, I started with 1 satoshi and gambled all my bitcoins away because I got bored and finally I lost 0.01BTC in total.
the winnings were so small when I started at 1 and the losses were big...

Are you saying you got bored with the low risk, so you started risking more? Not that martingale is gonna work anyway () but that's another classic way to go broke.

[iram91445]

I tried using martingale for a couple of days in dice gambling, I started with 1 satoshi and gambled all my bitcoins away because I got bored and finally I lost 0.01BTC in total.
the winnings were so small when I started at 1 and the losses were big...

i think its better to bet bigger amounts for a smaller amount of time it might be easier to get profit

[adaseb]

I tried using martingale for a couple of days in dice gambling, I started with 1 satoshi and gambled all my bitcoins away because I got bored and finally I lost 0.01BTC in total.
the winnings were so small when I started at 1 and the losses were big...

LOL yes the same happened to me also. Be glad that its only 0.01. But thats what usually happens, you get into huge losing streaks and you lose everything.

[nikona]

I tried using martingale for a couple of days in dice gambling, I started with 1 satoshi and gambled all my bitcoins away because I got bored and finally I lost 0.01BTC in total.
the winnings were so small when I started at 1 and the losses were big...

If you were betting 1 satoshi then it only takes around 19 losses to lose 0.01 BTC. Not a well backed bankroll for a martingale strategy , but you should be happy that you lost only 0.01 BTC. People have lost a lot more even after they started from 1 satoshi.

I personally prefer the 1.1 multiplier after 2 losses at the same. That way my bankroll is supported all the way till atleast 8 losses with a 0.1 BTC bankroll. I just start from 10 satoshi, and keep multiplying by 10.

[dooglus]

If your target is to get a profit of 50%, it is better to play one single x1.5 bet than to play thousands of martingale bets as you will have a better chance to make it.

True. But it's better still to play a single martingale sequence than to make a single bet.

Instead of betting 2 units at 1.5x (66%) to get to 3 units, with a chance of success of 66%, try betting root(3)-1 units with a multiplier of (3 + root(3))/2, and if you lose, bet the rest at the same multiplier. If either bet wins, you'll have 3 units. Your chance of success is 66.1768%, which is higher.

The single martingale sequence has a lower expected risk, and so has a lower expected loss.

[GannickusX]

If your target is to get a profit of 50%, it is better to play one single x1.5 bet than to play thousands of martingale bets as you will have a better chance to make it.

True. But it's better still to play a single martingale sequence than to make a single bet.

Instead of betting 2 units at 1.5x (66%) to get to 3 units, with a chance of success of 66%, try betting root(3)-1 units with a multiplier of (3 + root(3))/2, and if you lose, bet the rest at the same multiplier. If either bet wins, you'll have 3 units. Your chance of success is 66.1768%, which is higher.

The single martingale sequence has a lower expected risk, and so has a lower expected loss.

But his other calculation was wrong, wasnt it? He calculated the chances to be 66% using the bet at 1.5x vs 50% using martingale, that was wrong.

[adaseb]

If your target is to get a profit of 50%, it is better to play one single x1.5 bet than to play thousands of martingale bets as you will have a better chance to make it.

True. But it's better still to play a single martingale sequence than to make a single bet.

Instead of betting 2 units at 1.5x (66%) to get to 3 units, with a chance of success of 66%, try betting root(3)-1 units with a multiplier of (3 + root(3))/2, and if you lose, bet the rest at the same multiplier. If either bet wins, you'll have 3 units. Your chance of success is 66.1768%, which is higher.

The single martingale sequence has a lower expected risk, and so has a lower expected loss.

But his other calculation was wrong, wasnt it? He calculated the chances to be 66% using the bet at 1.5x vs 50% using martingale, that was wrong.

Yes his calculations seem slightly off most likely because he didn't factor in the house edge.

[acharias]

If your target is to get a profit of 50%, it is better to play one single x1.5 bet than to play thousands of martingale bets as you will have a better chance to make it.

True. But it's better still to play a single martingale sequence than to make a single bet.

Instead of betting 2 units at 1.5x (66%) to get to 3 units, with a chance of success of 66%, try betting root(3)-1 units with a multiplier of (3 + root(3))/2, and if you lose, bet the rest at the same multiplier. If either bet wins, you'll have 3 units. Your chance of success is 66.1768%, which is higher.

The single martingale sequence has a lower expected risk, and so has a lower expected loss.

But his other calculation was wrong, wasnt it? He calculated the chances to be 66% using the bet at 1.5x vs 50% using martingale, that was wrong.

Yes his calculations seem slightly off most likely because he didn't factor in the house edge.

you can't calculate chance without know real house edge of that gamble site
some site say only 1% house edge but in sistem not like that

[Rmcdermott927]

Martingale is best for small gains.   I find that I try and make 5-10% of my deposit and then pull out.   With that being said, it is obviously still risky.   The longer you stick around, the bigger the chance of you getting enough losses in a row to break the bank.  Make an incredibly small initial bet, like .01% of your initial investment.

[Buziss]

you can't calculate chance without know real house edge of that gamble site
some site say only 1% house edge but in sistem not like that

What do you mean by that? You just need to check the "multiplier" and the "win chance" of your bet to get the site house edge.

[XinXan]

Martingale is best for small gains.   I find that I try and make 5-10% of my deposit and then pull out.   With that being said, it is obviously still risky.   The longer you stick around, the bigger the chance of you getting enough losses in a row to break the bank.  Make an incredibly small initial bet, like .01% of your initial investment.

Why do you guys keep spreading false information? Martingale is not best for small gains, when you make such small initial bets you are esentially just wasting your time and you even have a lower chance of success, as explained above making single bets its better than using martingale for thousands of bets, so you are not only wasting your time, you also have less chances, the difference is not huge but it is there.

[Coef]

If your target is to get a profit of 50%, it is better to play one single x1.5 bet than to play thousands of martingale bets as you will have a better chance to make it.

True. But it's better still to play a single martingale sequence than to make a single bet.

Instead of betting 2 units at 1.5x (66%) to get to 3 units, with a chance of success of 66%, try betting root(3)-1 units with a multiplier of (3 + root(3))/2, and if you lose, bet the rest at the same multiplier. If either bet wins, you'll have 3 units. Your chance of success is 66.1768%, which is higher.

The single martingale sequence has a lower expected risk, and so has a lower expected loss.

But his other calculation was wrong, wasnt it? He calculated the chances to be 66% using the bet at 1.5x vs 50% using martingale, that was wrong.

Yes his calculations seem slightly off most likely because he didn't factor in the house edge.

I have already assume a 1% of house edge, which resulted in the 66% win chance for x1.5 bet and 49.5% win chance for a x2 bet in my previous post.



But yup my calculation is kind of slightly off, not because of the house edge but because of the exit condition.

In my original calculation, I simplified the scenario and considered the gambler is busted after a 20 loss streak.
In fact, the gambler will still have a small balance left that is not enough for him to continue doubling the bet size.

After some re-thinking, I found it a bit unfair to compare it directly with a simple x1.5 bet as the latter "strategy" will only end in two state: 0.015 btc or 0 btc.
As a result, I have considered a refined case that the gambler will go all in if he can't double his bet.
If that all-in bet is a win, the gambler will set his base bet back to 0.00000001 and continue with his martingale as usual.
If that all-in bet is a loss, he will have nothing left and will have to quit.

I have written a few lines of code to do a Monte Carlo simulation in R of it:

Code:

start_time <- proc.time()

Success = 0
Iteration = 5000

for (n in 1:Iteration) {
	Balance <- 0.01
	Bet <- 0.00000001

	while (TRUE) {
		if (runif(1) < 0.505) {
			Balance <- Balance - Bet
			Bet <- min(Bet * 2, Balance)
		}
		else {
		Balance <- Balance + Bet
		Bet <- 0.00000001
		}
		
		if (Balance == 0) 
			break
		else if (Balance >= 0.015) {
			Success <- Success + 1
			break
		}
	}
}

Chance <- Success/Iteration

end_time <- proc.time()

Out of the 5000 iterations, 2942 of it end with successful making 0.015 btc and thus the chance is 0.5884%.
The chance is higher than my previous calculation, because now the gambler will not quit after a 20 loss streak but go all in and has a chance of recouping the loss and making 0.015 in the end.

[Valanor]

any 1 get Profit with martiangle ?
real profit not only calculation ?
Please share your SS

i want to try martiangle on Lucky dice

[moriartybitcoin]

any 1 get Profit with martiangle ?
real profit not only calculation ?
Please share your SS

i want to try martiangle on Lucky dice

overall, i won some coins using martingale but i wont reccomend it to use because the risk is so high that you can bust all your coins if long red streak comes. i personally use it in only about less than 50 rolls then withdraw even with a little profit

[Astargath]

any 1 get Profit with martiangle ?
real profit not only calculation ?
Please share your SS

i want to try martiangle on Lucky dice

Why dont you read the thread instead of asking stupid questions? If you did you would know that it doesnt matter what strategy you use the result will be the same, so if you want to lose your money go ahead and gamble on dice but stop posting useless stuff in this thread.

[tsoPANos]

If your target is to get a profit of 50%, it is better to play one single x1.5 bet than to play thousands of martingale bets as you will have a better chance to make it.

True. But it's better still to play a single martingale sequence than to make a single bet.

Instead of betting 2 units at 1.5x (66%) to get to 3 units, with a chance of success of 66%, try betting root(3)-1 units with a multiplier of (3 + root(3))/2, and if you lose, bet the rest at the same multiplier. If either bet wins, you'll have 3 units. Your chance of success is 66.1768%, which is higher.

The single martingale sequence has a lower expected risk, and so has a lower expected loss.

But still this can't beqt the house edge. Am I right?
What is the house edge was very small, like 0.1%?

[Ingatqhvq]

any 1 get Profit with martiangle ?
real profit not only calculation ?
Please share your SS

i want to try martiangle on Lucky dice

Why dont you read the thread instead of asking stupid questions? If you did you would know that it doesnt matter what strategy you use the result will be the same, so if you want to lose your money go ahead and gamble on dice but stop posting useless stuff in this thread.

Be nice, not every one has the patient to read the whole thread.

[XinXan]

any 1 get Profit with martiangle ?
real profit not only calculation ?
Please share your SS

i want to try martiangle on Lucky dice

Why dont you read the thread instead of asking stupid questions? If you did you would know that it doesnt matter what strategy you use the result will be the same, so if you want to lose your money go ahead and gamble on dice but stop posting useless stuff in this thread.

Be nice, not every one has the patient to read the whole thread.

You dont need to read the whole thread, with the 2 last pages would be enough + you have google, he obviously made his comment to increase his post count just like you did.

Its already explained more than 20 times in this thread how strategies dont matter yet people keep coming and asking stupid shit or posting their ''strategies'' all falling into the gambler's fallacy