This Bitfinex Credit Bubble cannot end well

[theonewhowaskazu]

Its possible to take swap but never pay for it. That's the pb.

Also, since a year ago, we've increased by about 600%. It would be very possible to leverage long on that with a 200% interest rate.

would it be wise, considering weeks and months of sideways price action? that's a lot of interest to pay for sideways, and through times of down trending. it's one thing to hold, it's another to baghold margin.

Well, its just the buy and hodl strategy except leveraged.

I know quite a few people basically in that exact situation who aren't complaining or sweating it much right now.

Not saying its the best strategy but you can't deny people are doing it, and I don't think its going to end any time soon .

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[FattyMcButterpants]

Its possible to take swap but never pay for it. That's the pb.

Also, since a year ago, we've increased by about 600%. It would be very possible to leverage long on that with a 200% interest rate.

would it be wise, considering weeks and months of sideways price action? that's a lot of interest to pay for sideways, and through times of down trending. it's one thing to hold, it's another to baghold margin.

Well, its just the buy and hodl strategy except leveraged.

I know quite a few people basically in that exact situation who aren't complaining or sweating it much right now.

Not saying its the best strategy but you can't deny people are doing it, and I don't think its going to end any time soon .

i just dont really get it, though. if you are going to baghold for months anyway, then liquidity really is no issue. so why not leverage on MT4 and pay no interest?

[Keyara]

Its possible to take swap but never pay for it. That's the pb.

Also, since a year ago, we've increased by about 600%. It would be very possible to leverage long on that with a 200% interest rate.

would it be wise, considering weeks and months of sideways price action? that's a lot of interest to pay for sideways, and through times of down trending. it's one thing to hold, it's another to baghold margin.

Well, its just the buy and hodl strategy except leveraged.

I know quite a few people basically in that exact situation who aren't complaining or sweating it much right now.

Not saying its the best strategy but you can't deny people are doing it, and I don't think its going to end any time soon .

i just dont really get it, though. if you are going to baghold for months anyway, then liquidity really is no issue. so why not leverage on MT4 and pay no interest?

What MT4? Which country is the company located?

[FattyMcButterpants]

Its possible to take swap but never pay for it. That's the pb.

Also, since a year ago, we've increased by about 600%. It would be very possible to leverage long on that with a 200% interest rate.

would it be wise, considering weeks and months of sideways price action? that's a lot of interest to pay for sideways, and through times of down trending. it's one thing to hold, it's another to baghold margin.

Well, its just the buy and hodl strategy except leveraged.

I know quite a few people basically in that exact situation who aren't complaining or sweating it much right now.

Not saying its the best strategy but you can't deny people are doing it, and I don't think its going to end any time soon .

i just dont really get it, though. if you are going to baghold for months anyway, then liquidity really is no issue. so why not leverage on MT4 and pay no interest?

What MT4? Which country is the company located?

MetaTrader 4 is a trading platform. to trade BTC on it (with leverage) you trade through BTCE which is based in Bulgaria. obviously, then you want to look at the reputability of BTCE.

BTCE --> finance tab > Meta Trader

[tinof]

i just dont really get it, though. if you are going to baghold for months anyway, then liquidity really is no issue. so why not leverage on MT4 and pay no interest?

Can MT4 let user send bitcoin in and out easily?  What about tax filing requirement?

[theonewhowaskazu]

MT4 isn't a person guys...

This thread is getting kinda funny

[wachtwoord]

MT4 isn't a person guys...

This thread is getting kinda funny

Haha, this made me laugh 

[DannyElfman]

Its possible to take swap but never pay for it. That's the pb.

Also, since a year ago, we've increased by about 600%. It would be very possible to leverage long on that with a 200% interest rate.

The increase in price would not be a guarantee while the interest costs would be guaranteed. High interest costs like the cost in your example would force a trader to need a large upswing shortly after opening his position or risk gettting a margin call.

[AceWallen]

Its possible to take swap but never pay for it. That's the pb.

Also, since a year ago, we've increased by about 600%. It would be very possible to leverage long on that with a 200% interest rate.

The increase in price would not be a guarantee while the interest costs would be guaranteed. High interest costs like the cost in your example would force a trader to need a large upswing shortly after opening his position or risk gettting a margin call.

nobody is going to hold swaps at these rates for a year. every day those swaps eat away at your margin position, and every day your margin call gets higher.

[theonewhowaskazu]

Its possible to take swap but never pay for it. That's the pb.

Also, since a year ago, we've increased by about 600%. It would be very possible to leverage long on that with a 200% interest rate.

The increase in price would not be a guarantee while the interest costs would be guaranteed. High interest costs like the cost in your example would force a trader to need a large upswing shortly after opening his position or risk gettting a margin call.

nobody is going to hold swaps at these rates for a year. every day those swaps eat away at your margin position, and every day your margin call gets higher.

I know at least 2 people who have open margin positions for about a year each.

[AceWallen]

Its possible to take swap but never pay for it. That's the pb.

Also, since a year ago, we've increased by about 600%. It would be very possible to leverage long on that with a 200% interest rate.

The increase in price would not be a guarantee while the interest costs would be guaranteed. High interest costs like the cost in your example would force a trader to need a large upswing shortly after opening his position or risk gettting a margin call.

nobody is going to hold swaps at these rates for a year. every day those swaps eat away at your margin position, and every day your margin call gets higher.

I know at least 2 people who have open margin positions for about a year each.

on bitfinex? that's insane. they couldn't fine tune their analysis to cut down on 60-250% annual interest? why throw away so much money? that's just foolish.

[wachtwoord]

Its possible to take swap but never pay for it. That's the pb.

Also, since a year ago, we've increased by about 600%. It would be very possible to leverage long on that with a 200% interest rate.

The increase in price would not be a guarantee while the interest costs would be guaranteed. High interest costs like the cost in your example would force a trader to need a large upswing shortly after opening his position or risk gettting a margin call.

nobody is going to hold swaps at these rates for a year. every day those swaps eat away at your margin position, and every day your margin call gets higher.

I know at least 2 people who have open margin positions for about a year each.

Can you ask them their views on that? It sounds insane, but maybe I'm missing something here.

[theonewhowaskazu]

Its possible to take swap but never pay for it. That's the pb.

Also, since a year ago, we've increased by about 600%. It would be very possible to leverage long on that with a 200% interest rate.

The increase in price would not be a guarantee while the interest costs would be guaranteed. High interest costs like the cost in your example would force a trader to need a large upswing shortly after opening his position or risk gettting a margin call.

nobody is going to hold swaps at these rates for a year. every day those swaps eat away at your margin position, and every day your margin call gets higher.

I know at least 2 people who have open margin positions for about a year each.

on bitfinex? that's insane. they couldn't fine tune their analysis to cut down on 60-250% annual interest? why throw away so much money? that's just foolish.

I don't know, they're pretty chill about it honestly. I was kind of surprised myself. I don't know if foolish though, they have made the full 600% profit since a year ago and using leverage to multiply your profit by 2 can't hurt. I wouldn't do it, seems way too scary when you could just buy without leverage and not sweat it nearly as much, but I can't criticize success.

[theonewhowaskazu]

Its possible to take swap but never pay for it. That's the pb.

Also, since a year ago, we've increased by about 600%. It would be very possible to leverage long on that with a 200% interest rate.

The increase in price would not be a guarantee while the interest costs would be guaranteed. High interest costs like the cost in your example would force a trader to need a large upswing shortly after opening his position or risk gettting a margin call.

nobody is going to hold swaps at these rates for a year. every day those swaps eat away at your margin position, and every day your margin call gets higher.

I know at least 2 people who have open margin positions for about a year each.

Can you ask them their views on that? It sounds insane, but maybe I'm missing something here.

Sure, I can ask. I am seeing them either tomorrow or thursday anyway.

[AceWallen]

interesting. i just feel like the exchange risk alone for the length of a year would be unattractive. then add huge interest on top? crazy. to each his own i guess. bulls gonna bull.

[DannyElfman]

Its possible to take swap but never pay for it. That's the pb.

Also, since a year ago, we've increased by about 600%. It would be very possible to leverage long on that with a 200% interest rate.

The increase in price would not be a guarantee while the interest costs would be guaranteed. High interest costs like the cost in your example would force a trader to need a large upswing shortly after opening his position or risk gettting a margin call.

nobody is going to hold swaps at these rates for a year. every day those swaps eat away at your margin position, and every day your margin call gets higher.

If prices go up at a gradual, consistent, pace with few to no downtrends then it would make sense, but no asset price acts this way.

[CEG5952]

Its possible to take swap but never pay for it. That's the pb.

Also, since a year ago, we've increased by about 600%. It would be very possible to leverage long on that with a 200% interest rate.

The increase in price would not be a guarantee while the interest costs would be guaranteed. High interest costs like the cost in your example would force a trader to need a large upswing shortly after opening his position or risk gettting a margin call.

nobody is going to hold swaps at these rates for a year. every day those swaps eat away at your margin position, and every day your margin call gets higher.

If prices go up at a gradual, consistent, pace with few to no downtrends then it would make sense, but no asset price acts this way.

This, and more importantly I think, as someone mentioned, exchange risk. Just look at Gox and some of the other exchanges/businesses that have gone belly up or run with customer money. It's still the wild west out here.

[dadugan]

Its possible to take swap but never pay for it. That's the pb.

Also, since a year ago, we've increased by about 600%. It would be very possible to leverage long on that with a 200% interest rate.

The increase in price would not be a guarantee while the interest costs would be guaranteed. High interest costs like the cost in your example would force a trader to need a large upswing shortly after opening his position or risk gettting a margin call.

nobody is going to hold swaps at these rates for a year. every day those swaps eat away at your margin position, and every day your margin call gets higher.

If prices go up at a gradual, consistent, pace with few to no downtrends then it would make sense, but no asset price acts this way.

This, and more importantly I think, as someone mentioned, exchange risk. Just look at Gox and some of the other exchanges/businesses that have gone belly up or run with customer money. It's still the wild west out here.

It make more sense for exchange to stay honest. Mtgox blows it big time when Mark can sell the entire business for over 200M but choose to defraud customers.

Bitfinex can probably sell for at least 70M if the volume is true.

[CEG5952]

It make more sense for exchange to stay honest. Mtgox blows it big time when Mark can sell the entire business for over 200M but choose to defraud customers.

Bitfinex can probably sell for at least 70M if the volume is true.

Maybe, maybe not. I'm not really in a position to speculate on that. If you feel comfortable holding all your coins on these exchanges, be my guest.

[wachtwoord]

Its possible to take swap but never pay for it. That's the pb.

Also, since a year ago, we've increased by about 600%. It would be very possible to leverage long on that with a 200% interest rate.

The increase in price would not be a guarantee while the interest costs would be guaranteed. High interest costs like the cost in your example would force a trader to need a large upswing shortly after opening his position or risk gettting a margin call.

nobody is going to hold swaps at these rates for a year. every day those swaps eat away at your margin position, and every day your margin call gets higher.

If prices go up at a gradual, consistent, pace with few to no downtrends then it would make sense, but no asset price acts this way.

This, and more importantly I think, as someone mentioned, exchange risk. Just look at Gox and some of the other exchanges/businesses that have gone belly up or run with customer money. It's still the wild west out here.

It make more sense for exchange to stay honest. Mtgox blows it big time when Mark can sell the entire business for over 200M but choose to defraud customers.

Bitfinex can probably sell for at least 70M if the volume is true.

If karpales showed anything it's that actors in this space don't always act rationally. I mean he was printing money with a business a Chimpanzee could run and he still managed to fuck it up.