This Bitfinex Credit Bubble cannot end well

[minerpumpkin]

sooo, i was a bit relieved to see USD swaps going down on the fall (sometimes we have seen the opposite), but now i see that bulls are pushing swaps up to $30 million again....

29,854,318.41 USD at the moment.

The small flash drop the other day doesn't seem to have much effect on the swaps, just a small valley. On the other hand, we seem to be going down for 10 days now - which doesn't look like a bubble collapsing, but rather a small and gradual retreat. But I guess it is still too early to tell if this continues.

I think they are getting squeezed on purpose. In the face of getting squeezed, like most gamblers, they are starting to double down. It is at this point that the house moves in to take all of their chips. This could get ugly (and at best, it'll just stay sideways and a few guys will be ruined).

So there's some kind of Martingale strategy when it comes to (leveraged) trading? Ha! Awesome... Umm but yeah, they could end up getting burned. But how would this affect us (apart from Finex maybe collapsing and the trades being reversed)?

[Newbie1022]

sooo, i was a bit relieved to see USD swaps going down on the fall (sometimes we have seen the opposite), but now i see that bulls are pushing swaps up to $30 million again....

29,854,318.41 USD at the moment.

The small flash drop the other day doesn't seem to have much effect on the swaps, just a small valley. On the other hand, we seem to be going down for 10 days now - which doesn't look like a bubble collapsing, but rather a small and gradual retreat. But I guess it is still too early to tell if this continues.

I think they are getting squeezed on purpose. In the face of getting squeezed, like most gamblers, they are starting to double down. It is at this point that the house moves in to take all of their chips. This could get ugly (and at best, it'll just stay sideways and a few guys will be ruined).

So there's some kind of Martingale strategy when it comes to (leveraged) trading? Ha! Awesome... Umm but yeah, they could end up getting burned. But how would this affect us (apart from Finex maybe collapsing and the trades being reversed)?

Assuming most if not all people on here are non-whales, it just means that cheap coins could be coming to town (not 100% prediction, maybe not even 50-50... but good enough odds to have the idea in your back pocket). Even if trades get reversed, a flash crash (or even a slow drain) will depress prices beyond a normal level. Also, other exchanges might not roll back their trades (although they might also not fall as much). So, that's mostly how I am playing my hand... half in bitcoin, half in fiat with the fiat ready to be pushed into bitcoin if the price dips.

[minerpumpkin]

sooo, i was a bit relieved to see USD swaps going down on the fall (sometimes we have seen the opposite), but now i see that bulls are pushing swaps up to $30 million again....

29,854,318.41 USD at the moment.

The small flash drop the other day doesn't seem to have much effect on the swaps, just a small valley. On the other hand, we seem to be going down for 10 days now - which doesn't look like a bubble collapsing, but rather a small and gradual retreat. But I guess it is still too early to tell if this continues.

I think they are getting squeezed on purpose. In the face of getting squeezed, like most gamblers, they are starting to double down. It is at this point that the house moves in to take all of their chips. This could get ugly (and at best, it'll just stay sideways and a few guys will be ruined).

So there's some kind of Martingale strategy when it comes to (leveraged) trading? Ha! Awesome... Umm but yeah, they could end up getting burned. But how would this affect us (apart from Finex maybe collapsing and the trades being reversed)?

Assuming most if not all people on here are non-whales, it just means that cheap coins could be coming to town (not 100% prediction, maybe not even 50-50... but good enough odds to have the idea in your back pocket). Even if trades get reversed, a flash crash (or even a slow drain) will depress prices beyond a normal level. Also, other exchanges might not roll back their trades (although they might also not fall as much). So, that's mostly how I am playing my hand... half in bitcoin, half in fiat with the fiat ready to be pushed into bitcoin if the price dips.

Am I just taking trading advice from a Jr. Member called 'Newbie1022'? But yeah, it's an interesting view. You may be right with that.

[Newbie1022]

sooo, i was a bit relieved to see USD swaps going down on the fall (sometimes we have seen the opposite), but now i see that bulls are pushing swaps up to $30 million again....

29,854,318.41 USD at the moment.

The small flash drop the other day doesn't seem to have much effect on the swaps, just a small valley. On the other hand, we seem to be going down for 10 days now - which doesn't look like a bubble collapsing, but rather a small and gradual retreat. But I guess it is still too early to tell if this continues.

I think they are getting squeezed on purpose. In the face of getting squeezed, like most gamblers, they are starting to double down. It is at this point that the house moves in to take all of their chips. This could get ugly (and at best, it'll just stay sideways and a few guys will be ruined).

So there's some kind of Martingale strategy when it comes to (leveraged) trading? Ha! Awesome... Umm but yeah, they could end up getting burned. But how would this affect us (apart from Finex maybe collapsing and the trades being reversed)?

Assuming most if not all people on here are non-whales, it just means that cheap coins could be coming to town (not 100% prediction, maybe not even 50-50... but good enough odds to have the idea in your back pocket). Even if trades get reversed, a flash crash (or even a slow drain) will depress prices beyond a normal level. Also, other exchanges might not roll back their trades (although they might also not fall as much). So, that's mostly how I am playing my hand... half in bitcoin, half in fiat with the fiat ready to be pushed into bitcoin if the price dips.

Am I just taking trading advice from a Jr. Member called 'Newbie1022'? But yeah, it's an interesting view. You may be right with that.

Meh, I am either right or I am wrong without regard to experience or status. The idea is simply a hedge with some upside. It amounts to a bet on volatility. If the price goes up, I win. If the price goes down substantially, I win. If the price stays flat and goes down slightly then I lose slightly. I'm not really a gambler so I look for situations where the odds are stacked in my favor. The way the order book reads, it seems like traders are treating a major event as a 100 or 1000 to 1 type of event whereas I think it is about a 5 or 10 to 1 event sometime within the next three weeks. I also feel much more comfortable with this play than a traditional short because, frankly, I am a Newbie... I lack the ability to do proper technical analysis to make those bets intelligently and I know it. =D

[AceWallen]

I think they are getting squeezed on purpose. In the face of getting squeezed, like most gamblers, they are starting to double down. It is at this point that the house moves in to take all of their chips. This could get ugly (and at best, it'll just stay sideways and a few guys will be ruined).

i agree that there are a lot of straight up gamblers trading on leverage right now. however, i think many are already fully leveraged -- no more doubling down for them.

[DjPxH]

I think they are getting squeezed on purpose. In the face of getting squeezed, like most gamblers, they are starting to double down. It is at this point that the house moves in to take all of their chips. This could get ugly (and at best, it'll just stay sideways and a few guys will be ruined).

i agree that there are a lot of straight up gamblers trading on leverage right now. however, i think many are already fully leveraged -- no more doubling down for them.

Going on full leverage is russian roulette these days! We could very well see another flash crash or two. I think many of those 'traders' will be wiped out by such an event. Phew... hard to fathom!

[Habeler876]

I think they are getting squeezed on purpose. In the face of getting squeezed, like most gamblers, they are starting to double down. It is at this point that the house moves in to take all of their chips. This could get ugly (and at best, it'll just stay sideways and a few guys will be ruined).

i agree that there are a lot of straight up gamblers trading on leverage right now. however, i think many are already fully leveraged -- no more doubling down for them.

Going on full leverage is russian roulette these days! We could very well see another flash crash or two. I think many of those 'traders' will be wiped out by such an event. Phew... hard to fathom!

There have already been many traders wiped out over the past month or so. Definitely those were margin calls that dropped price $20 to ~ $520 (with zero sells following).

I don't understand why bulls are leveraging long right now. The bubble predictions already failed. Use leverage to buy the bounce on a deep flash crash, or on a very strong breakout.

Leveraging long in a slowly descending sideways market? Bottom fishing like that will get you killed.

[Newbie1022]

I think they are getting squeezed on purpose. In the face of getting squeezed, like most gamblers, they are starting to double down. It is at this point that the house moves in to take all of their chips. This could get ugly (and at best, it'll just stay sideways and a few guys will be ruined).

i agree that there are a lot of straight up gamblers trading on leverage right now. however, i think many are already fully leveraged -- no more doubling down for them.

Going on full leverage is russian roulette these days! We could very well see another flash crash or two. I think many of those 'traders' will be wiped out by such an event. Phew... hard to fathom!

There have already been many traders wiped out over the past month or so. Definitely those were margin calls that dropped price $20 to ~ $520 (with zero sells following).

I don't understand why bulls are leveraging long right now. The bubble predictions already failed. Use leverage to buy the bounce on a deep flash crash, or on a very strong breakout.

Leveraging long in a slowly descending sideways market? Bottom fishing like that will get you killed.

This. The thought is... well, I missed the bottom the last time, but it can only fall so much and the price is more appealing at a lower cut so unless it is going to fall forever then we'll make it back. It's the same rationale that would lead my father to double up on bets at the horse track in the hopes of "recouping" his losses. There was a lot of going to sleep on an empty stomach in those days.

Anyhow, they might get saved in the near term if there are enough big players entering for ETFs. At the same time, I highly suspect those ETFs are playing a hand in manipulating the market so that they can get in cheap -- I would be somewhat surprised if they aren't trying to play the role of the house in this market.

Good luck to all. Play your instincts, look towards, the future, hedge and minimize costs, and have fun... I am firmly of the belief that the best way to win is to let the crazies knock themselves off.

[davidgdg]

Interest rates are falling rapidly. Down from 0.16% mid month to below 0.13% today.

[Anduck]

Interest rates are falling rapidly. Down from 0.16% mid month to below 0.13% today.

This is good thing. The usd/btc is dropping because people are quitting their >$620 opened long positions?

[davidgdg]

My guess is that by some time in September outstanding swaps will be down from 30 to 15 mil and rates will be below 0.1%. That's the point at which another strong price rise may occur 😊 But until then it will be a slow slide down to ~ USD 500 as the post-May leveraged longs give up.

[ensurance982]

My guess is that by some time in September outstanding swaps will be down from 30 to 15 mil and rates will be below 0.1%. That's the point at which another strong price rise may occur 😊 But until then it will be a slow slide down to ~ USD 500 as the post-May leveraged longs give up.

Any conjecture at which point a cascading long-burn on Finex may occur? I mean we went down quite a bit already but the longs are still holding and the bubble barely deflated.

[gizmoh]

My guess is that by some time in September outstanding swaps will be down from 30 to 15 mil and rates will be below 0.1%. That's the point at which another strong price rise may occur 😊 But until then it will be a slow slide down to ~ USD 500 as the post-May leveraged longs give up.

Any conjecture at which point a cascading long-burn on Finex may occur? I mean we went down quite a bit already but the longs are still holding and the bubble barely deflated.

Needs to go under 500 so it can start to cascade.

[ensurance982]

My guess is that by some time in September outstanding swaps will be down from 30 to 15 mil and rates will be below 0.1%. That's the point at which another strong price rise may occur 😊 But until then it will be a slow slide down to ~ USD 500 as the post-May leveraged longs give up.

Any conjecture at which point a cascading long-burn on Finex may occur? I mean we went down quite a bit already but the longs are still holding and the bubble barely deflated.

Needs to go under 500 so it can start to cascade.

You think? Hmmm yeah, could be true. I really don't see us going back to 500 already. Things aren't exactly great, but 500 is still some BTC away!

[solex]

Is this the massacre of the leveraged longs?

[Newbie1022]

Is this the massacre of the leveraged longs?

Partially. Market manipulation is the impetus and the leveraged longs are getting eaten up in the process. There is still a lot more of Rome left to burn... there is over $29 million in leverage still on the board at Bitfinex. Figuring this number will come down to $15 to $20 million... there is still soo much left to burn (and I suspect the number is still there because a lot of the longs have doubled up unwilling to take their loss).

[FUR11]

Let's take a minute and think of all those longs on leverage that have been wiped out since last week! ;(

[Newbie1022]

Let's take a minute and think of all those longs on leverage that have been wiped out since last week! ;(

S--- is sad. People have bills to pay and anybody gambling that hard probably doesn't have a lot of money to begin with (otherwise why the hell are they playing on credit). This is the bad part of markets, generally. Notice how we didn't have this problem a couple weeks ago until Wall Street came in?

[DjPxH]

Let's take a minute and think of all those longs on leverage that have been wiped out since last week! ;(

S--- is sad. People have bills to pay and anybody gambling that hard probably doesn't have a lot of money to begin with (otherwise why the hell are they playing on credit). This is the bad part of markets, generally. Notice how we didn't have this problem a couple weeks ago until Wall Street came in?

Well there's a perfect explanation why those people are taking borrowed money to invest gamble: greed! Even if they had a lot of money, they'd just want more and more!s

[nrd525]

Let's take a minute and think of all those longs on leverage that have been wiped out since last week! ;(

Probably none or very close to none on Bitfinex.  The leverage ratio is low. The swaps are declining because 1) the rules changes and made the leverage smaller and 2) BTC price was flat for a very long time and has now started declining.