Ryans' log

[Tzupy]

I meant THE bottom. More than a month away? In this case it might drop below 250$.

[RyNinDaCleM]

I meant THE bottom. More than a month away? In this case it might drop below 250$.

It definitely could. Especially considering 5ths are more intense and panicky in Bitcoin. I guess it's that one last failed attempt to go up (wave-IV). When we just can't go up any more, that's when people start throwing in the towels. Not like we've been seeing, but people you wouldn't expect to actually give up. There is bound to be some shocking and surprising moments to come on "Days of our Bitcointalk"

[RyNinDaCleM]

As long as 4 is complete. Otherwise, we'll get a c up to about $370 or so before going down to about the same levels for the 5th. This will complete the (B) and it will be off to the races.


This is a chart that a few people around the community have seen. I drew it on the 1st of October. This is not scaled out for time or price levels, but just what I expect to see happen before the end of the bear market. The main thing to focus on here is the MACD and the divergence it needs to make. So far so good, right? Well, I will repost this chart once a day to show the progress as we continue the 2014 Bear market.

[RyNinDaCleM]

I forgot I said I would post this everyday.

[RyNinDaCleM]

[RyNinDaCleM]

 

[RyNinDaCleM]

It's getting close! 

[RyNinDaCleM]

We are going to assume that red won out of these two possibilities


So with that, I bring you this

Target for the (3) of III is around 165-175 area.

Which happens to coincide with the H&S target


These impulsive counts would be based on the assumption that we are in a simple ABC and in the 5th wave of C


I'm personally more of a fan of that red count if we are going the impulsive route

If we are going the route of a more complex nature, Then this could be a good longer term road map of our trip to double digits
Notice in the labels for the diagonal black lines, it says "PC:77.xx%". This is price/percentage change and they are all fairly equal to one another. This makes a good case for the target shown. However, also notice that the angle of the last diagonal line is pretty steep. I ran out of room when I made this chart a few weeks ago. It may actually be a slightly shallower slope than the previous one leading to 152. We will see how fast this unfolds.

For the double zigzag version of the above chart, we could be facing a double bottom IF what we are tracing out now is a Leading diagonal for A of (Z)

The red note is only for the LD scenario. If we are getting a full regular impulse AND playing out the triple zigzag, then I seriously hope you aren't a HODLer. We will go WAYYY into double digits... not just a poke. Something like <$100 by the time A of (Z) completes. BTW, that last chart is for BS, prices vary by exchange for the lowest price we can have for the wave-5 of the LD

[RyNinDaCleM]

It is High Noon in the land of Bitcoin. I will keep this thread unlocked for 24 hours, so If you have questions or comments, now is the time.

[Afrikoin]

Thanks Ryan!

These impulsive counts would be based on the assumption that we are in a simple ABC and in the 5th wave of C

i recall  $165 projections were expected by some to be the 5th wave of C. Now, we're looking at another chase for a 5th wave possibly lower than $165.

Q: is the only way to know we've hit rock bottom (5th wave of C), to have at least one motive and a corrective wave in an uptrend? What factors different from ($275 and $ 165) would you be looking at to say "Yep! We're going up for sure"? Not only at the time of capitulation, but say some weeks later?


of our trip to double digits

How do you think this will affect the combined market ie the fact that the market has gone down to double digits from $1163 levels? Opinions welcomed

third question

I witnessed the bottom from October ($275) and slightly missed the one from last month ($166). I would like to get in on the next. Ideally, what I'm hoping for is to profit on the correction. Like the 80% return from $166 Or the 80% from $ 275. How can i anticipate a large enough correction, after an unprecedented low? (of a 50%+ return  magnitude) Opinion welcomed.

[rjclarke2000]

Thanks Ryan!

These impulsive counts would be based on the assumption that we are in a simple ABC and in the 5th wave of C

i recall  $165 projections were expected by some to be the 5th wave of C. Now, we're looking at another chase for a 5th wave possibly lower than $165.

Q: is the only way to know we've hit rock bottom (5th wave of C), to have at least one motive and a corrective wave in an uptrend? What factors differect from ($275 and $ 165) would you be looking at to say "Yep! We're going up for sure"? Not necessarily at the timeof capitulation, but say some weeks later?


of our trip to double digits

How do you think this will affect the combined market ie the fact that the market has gone down to double digits from $1163 levels? Opinions welcomed

third question

I witnesses the bottom from October ($275) and slightly missed the one from last month ($166). I would like to get in on the next.Ideally, what i'm hoping for is to profit on the correction. How can i anticipate a large enough correction, after an unprecedented low? (of a 50%+ return  magnitude) Opinion welcomed.

Great questions. I am interested to read the answers here too.

[RyNinDaCleM]

BTW, I am on the road this morning so I will answer when I get home later.

[damiano]

H&S is beautiful

Thats the one i've been seeing for quite some time.  Masterluc had another one (smaller) which I also saw which had played out nicely as well, but this big one thats been developing for months is the one I have been looking forward to.

 

[eboard10]

of our trip to double digits

How do you think this will affect the combined market ie the fact that the market has gone down to double digits from $1163 levels? Opinions welcomed

That isn't totally surprising if you think of the current downtrend as a Wave 4 of an extended Wave 3 that started at $4 around Feb '12.

Assuming this is the case, then a move to double digits is reasonable in BTC standards. A 94% retracement of the whole $4-$1163 move on Bitstamp would bring us to circa $73.

[An old pal]

Ryan is SHORT and as price is moving against him, he suddenly decides to unlock his thread and spout his doom charts!

Why did you unlock the thread today?

[RyNinDaCleM]

Thanks Ryan!

These impulsive counts would be based on the assumption that we are in a simple ABC and in the 5th wave of C

i recall  $165 projections were expected by some to be the 5th wave of C. Now, we're looking at another chase for a 5th wave possibly lower than $165.

Q: is the only way to know we've hit rock bottom (5th wave of C), to have at least one motive and a corrective wave in an uptrend? What factors different from ($275 and $ 165) would you be looking at to say "Yep! We're going up for sure"? Not only at the time of capitulation, but say some weeks later?

My experience can give me a very good feeling about it when the time comes, but there is no absolute confirmation until we have a completed wave count to the bottom combined with high volume (capitulation) and is followed by impulsive rises with rising volume. Some like to see a Daily or weekly upper BB touch. Others like to see their favorite time frame MACD go into green territory. I have my own set of indicators I trust to tell me the state of the market trend. That combined with my experience gives me confidence in my calls.

I know that I was also saying in this thread that the last low was going to be it. The rise off of said low told me otherwise within days after that bottom hit. I did buy hard near that bottom in anticipation of THE bottom, but I have since sold those coins because I now believe otherwise.

of our trip to double digits

How do you think this will affect the combined market ie the fact that the market has gone down to double digits from $1163 levels? Opinions welcomed

As eboard10 said, it is to be expected to hit double digits. Wave-4's initial targets should be near the bottom of the wave-4 of one lesser degree. In his chart it was the correction to the $266 April 2013 high. That correction hit ~$50 depending on the exchange. So it's not out of question to get a correction here to those levels. Now, that is only the larger wave-4 scenario. If this is the even larger wave-2 (actually [II]) then it feasibly can retrace the entire history of Bitcoin trade. Up to 100%. So if this is the case, then anything is possible and I wouldn't even flinch at the idea of $50 and below. Do I think it's likely? Not really, but I don't discount it either.

third question

I witnessed the bottom from October ($275) and slightly missed the one from last month ($166). I would like to get in on the next. Ideally, what I'm hoping for is to profit on the correction. Like the 80% return from $166 Or the 80% from $ 275. How can i anticipate a large enough correction, after an unprecedented low? (of a 50%+ return  magnitude) Opinion welcomed.

Once panic gets rolling, you are better off getting the hell out of the way. To get the bottom of a panic fueled capitulation, takes luck. Plain and simple. No TA can predict that kind of situation. You may get fairly close, but it can't foresee the magnitude of panic before it happens. The best thing to do is wait for the selling to slow and jump in on the way back up when there is more of a confirmation of a bottom. 5 waves up, overlap of previous waves of equal degree, weak volume during the corrective pullback... It's hard to do, but when the bottom hits you'll just have to take what you can get and live with it. I'll try to post a bottom call, but I can't make any guarantees

[RyNinDaCleM]

Ryan is SHORT and as price is moving against him, he suddenly decides to unlock his thread and spout his doom charts!

Why did you unlock the thread today?

LOL, seriously?
You're going to create a new account just to come here and troll? I find that comical...
Actually I am short, but the price isn't moving against me . I shorted some at 223.xx about 2 hours ago and I plan to short more if it gets to my 225-227 target. I'm not going to miss this firestorm.

I opened my thread back up because I had... Psshh, I'm not even going to waste keystrokes on this.

[futureofbitcoin]

What do you think about this btc-e thing? Would this affect the general trend and whatnot?

[RyNinDaCleM]

What do you think about this btc-e thing? Would this affect the general trend and whatnot?

Nope! Since the first spike earlier when none of the other exchanges followed, it's been on my ignore list. If I end up with invalidated counts due to this, it changes nothing with the end result, it only postpones it briefly and could ultimately make it worse in the long run.

That said, I feel something is up with BTC-e. No one would pump BTC-e with the intention to get others to follow. IMO, this was to trigger stops and margin calls or possibly something worse, but I won't speculate on FUDdy types of situations but I do feel there will need to be a burn unit available after this.

[Afrikoin]

what Btc -e thing?