Ryans' log

[RyNinDaCleM]

I prefer original color scheme.

1d MACD red and confirmed everywhere, looks like even 3d MACD may turn red soon on Huobi.  I think it is a bit more likely we will go down from here, Huobi looks like it is almost ready to dump, although Finex remains stubbornly optimistic, still adding to already mind blowing number of USD swaps. Interesting times.

Interesting times, indeed!
BTCChina also has quite some asks showing. Earlier there was a good sized ask (~1k or so) pushing price down just before BFX spiked up. At the moment, it seems that selling pressure is far exceeding the buying pressure market wide.  Which explains the lack of rebound. This could also lead to exhaustion and allow that rebound to happen before more selling occurs. We will see.

There appears to be more of a triangle which may mean we have an extended 3rd and the is the second 4th.
Something like this


If this is the case, a triangle thrust target would be around $608 with Fibo targets down to $596. This, oddly enough, also goes back in line with my earlier target of $596-612 from post #18.

[RyNinDaCleM]

Triangle thrust target reached on stamp, though it looks like one more wave down to complete that 5th is still possible. The divergence is growing and since the target was hit, I bought in below $610.

This just shows the revision including the thrust wave count.

[secousa]

thank you Ryan for your wonderful work!

[RyNinDaCleM]

thank you Ryan for your wonderful work!

Thanks, and you're welcome!
Nice website! What about some wiimotes?  

[BuildTheFuture]

So if it continues to bounce up a bit, is there any way yet to decide if we're more likely to be in the bearish long term counts or the bullish one? Or does it have to take out $685 to decide? Thanks for the posts!

[RyNinDaCleM]

So if it continues to bounce up a bit, is there any way yet to decide if we're more likely to be in the bearish long term counts or the bullish one? Or does it have to take out $685 to decide? Thanks for the posts!

When looking at the last chart I posted, if we break above $658.88, then the wave 2 is invalidated because a wave-2 cannot retrace more than 100% of wave-1. Therefore we are more likely in the v of 3 of (3) (the red count below), but it's not 100% confirmed at that point. Just more likely. I will post as new data is available


Link to full size image http://www.sierrachart.com/image.php?l=1405011720627.png

[Tzupy]

Have you tried to do the same for Chinese exchanges (OKcoin, Huobi)? They look bearisher than Bitstamp lately.

[RyNinDaCleM]

Have you tried to do the same for Chinese exchanges (OKcoin, Huobi)? They look bearisher than Bitstamp lately.

I have BTCChina and OkCoin on Sierrachart, but I do not have Huobi. Bitcoinwisdom is terrible, so I won't go there. I will put together a similar analysis today and post it up before today's close.

[RyNinDaCleM]

OKCoin is missing data but for the most part, the Daily chart is very similar to Bitstamps chart. Holds much of the same count(*), a red MACD and has the same divergences.

(*)Due to the missing data, it is next to impossible to determine what the wave-1/A did and if there was overlap. Which in turn, makes it difficult to make accurate counts for probabilities.


Lets see the shorter period charts! Since the missing data at the 1/A is... well... missing, I can't put a 3 or 5 wave count to help with the more recent counts. So assuming that the higher high can be a valid 3 OR a B this is what I come up with.



A very interesting pair of discrepancies between OKCOin and stamp in this chart. Notes are embedded. If I were to work out a target for the red C, it could quickly invalidate the bullish count. It's not guaranteed to do so, but it would be close.

In conclusion, it is a bit more bearish looking from a quick view of the chart. I will continue to watch this chart to see what else I can find, for either case. I will also check out the BTCChina chart and report back if there is anything seriously out of place.

[Tzupy]

Thank you for posting China analysis too. My point is that since the Chinese are more bearish these days and they seem to lead
the market down, the bullish scenario might get invalidated in China first. I see the market as being at a turning point where it has
to decide for a completion of wave 1 or to resume wave C (which IMO so far has been truncated, in the bullish scenario).
Also I believe that a flash crash to the support of 540$ won't invalidate the bullish scenario, if it holds then a wave 1 peak of ~800$ is possible.
The lower below 540$ it drops, the higher the probability of resuming wave C with a healthy capitulation well below 340$.

[oda.krell]

1d SMA200 turning into support, with the help of SMA50?



... probably too early to say with certainty.

[RyNinDaCleM]

1d SMA200 turning into support, with the help of SMA50?



... probably too early to say with certainty.

That kind of support could hold the bull count alive

[Cryptopher]

Hey Ryan, thanks for sharing this information with the community. Where do you produce those graphs in your original post? It looks like Bitcoinwisdom, but not quite. I know that you can plot markers on wisdom, but not too sure about the layout.

I see that you have posted some other screenshots that are clearly from Bitcoinwisdom, but not sure about the others.

Cheers.

[RyNinDaCleM]

Hey Ryan, thanks for sharing this information with the community. Where do you produce those graphs in your original post? It looks like Bitcoinwisdom, but not quite. I know that you can plot markers on wisdom, but not too sure about the layout.

I see that you have posted some other screenshots that are clearly from Bitcoinwisdom, but not sure about the others.

Cheers.

Nope! None of my pics are bitcoinwisdom. There are serious issues with the plotting of lines and I'm not 100% sure the formulas are accurate for the indicators offered. I do use it to watch some alt coins, though. I use SierraChart which has a Bitcoin feed. I get Stamp, BFX, BTC-e, OKCoin, BTCChina, and Gox (which is irrelevant now). I would like to splice the Gox 2010-12 data into my Stamp data files, but otherwise the Gox data is useless.


Edit:
To illustrate what I said about bitcoiwisdom, this is a screenie I took a while ago of DRK. Those lines are terrible. I just can't trust it for TA. I know that oda has crisp lines for the BTC charts he posts (perhaps the problem is with the low prices of the alts), I have always liked the useability of SC.

[Cryptopher]

Ah I see, that will explain why it looks identical lol. Do you know of any decent charting resource online that covers the GBP market on BTC-E? I'm disappointed that Bitcoinwisdom didn't add them, but since their addition to BTC-E the GBP market has been fairly quiet.

[RyNinDaCleM]

Ah I see, that will explain why it looks identical lol. Do you know of any decent charting resource online that covers the GBP market on BTC-E? I'm disappointed that Bitcoinwisdom didn't add them, but since their addition to BTC-E the GBP market has been fairly quiet.

Unfortunately, no! Tradingview.com is a nice site but they don't have any GBP markets for Bitcoin. They have most of BTC-e markets but again, not GBP.

[Cryptopher]

Ah I see, that will explain why it looks identical lol. Do you know of any decent charting resource online that covers the GBP market on BTC-E? I'm disappointed that Bitcoinwisdom didn't add them, but since their addition to BTC-E the GBP market has been fairly quiet.

Unfortunately, no! Tradingview.com is a nice site but they don't have any GBP markets for Bitcoin. They have most of BTC-e markets but again, not GBP.

Ah yes, I used Trading View once or twice in the past. I'm surprised that nobody has charted GBP, just for completeness if anything.

It's a shame, I mean the market depth in GBP markets is shallow, with a very thin order book, but it's nice to see the historic data as time goes by. I've made some nice wins via intra-exchange, inter-fiat markets for BTC and LTC thanks to the thin order book. In some cases you can make huge returns, have to be high speculative and patient, but eventually somebody comes along and dumps a load of coins.

[RyNinDaCleM]

Ah I see, that will explain why it looks identical lol. Do you know of any decent charting resource online that covers the GBP market on BTC-E? I'm disappointed that Bitcoinwisdom didn't add them, but since their addition to BTC-E the GBP market has been fairly quiet.

Unfortunately, no! Tradingview.com is a nice site but they don't have any GBP markets for Bitcoin. They have most of BTC-e markets but again, not GBP.

Ah yes, I used Trading View once or twice in the past. I'm surprised that nobody has charted GBP, just for completeness if anything.

It's a shame, I mean the market depth in GBP markets is shallow, with a very thin order book, but it's nice to see the historic data as time goes by. I've made some nice wins via intra-exchange, inter-fiat markets for BTC and LTC thanks to the thin order book. In some cases you can make huge returns, have to be high speculative and patient, but eventually somebody comes along and dumps a load of coins.

The problem with such a thinly traded market is the volume. If there is no volume you end up with HUGE spreads (where profit can be made IF someone comes along, as you said) and TA is nearly impossible. Let me show you what I mean.

DRK/USD on BFX


Sure, it's nice to see what happened, but it is very difficult to make trading decisions based on that

[Cryptopher]

Yeah markets with little to no volume aren't very fun for traders acting on indicators, however they provide a great opportunity for snapping up some really cheap coins. This is especially great when there is another market e.g. USD where you can instantly dump some or all of the coins for a huge gain.

Of course, these speculative buy orders tie up funds while you wait, but it's surprising how often these dumps occur. Not even two months ago somebody sold 15000 LTC in the LTC/GBP, 11,000 of which were sold at £0.11, so what, about 18 cents a piece. Litecoin was trading at around $11 a piece at the time. Absolute madness.

[RyNinDaCleM]

This could be a potential topping point if the bearish count is to continue. Divergence present in the 30min chart suggests that the 2 is done, or nearly so. Now, the 30 minute divergence is not as reliable as the 60 minute, but this being a smaller degree wave, it can give early signs of an upcoming turn. The fibo target was 630-645 for the wave-2 with invalidation of this count occurring at 658.88. The target has been reached, but that is not a guarantee that it'll turn here.

Some bullish factors are:
-As oda.krell pointed out, the converging D200 and D50 SMA's are providing support and will continue to do so until breached.
-The 50 crossing up on the 200 (aka Golden Cross) can spark a rally to kick off the v of 3 from the bullish count. This is still a couple of days away, but something to watch out for.

Now, for the chart Pr0n

The bearish situation as it stands


The Bull if we continue going up in v of 3. Target found using two different Fibo methods.