Ryans' log

[RyNinDaCleM]

As always (well, most of the time ) target has been reached. And as always, this is no guarantee that the c-wave is done, however, the divergences are once again, rearing their ugly heads indicating a topping situation. If the Bearish case that I have been updating for the last few days continues, We have some interesting times ahead.

This is the next stop on the Bear train; destination, downtown.


There are a couple of stops on the way, but that is the general target to expect.

Remember, this is part of this larger count.


Or this one


Should we find enough support to stave off a more serious decline, then the next likely scenario is a triangle. This triangle has some unusual structures within it, but it is a possibility.


This would re-validate the Bull count where $658.88 was a 3 of the same degree as the 1 off the $339 bottom. This is because the rules say that the final wave in wave-4 must not enter the price territory of wave-1. I don't want to get any hopes up, but I figure this may ease some worry when/if we break below $600.

Now, I realize this is a little controversial, but it is a real possibility so I must post it.

Trade on, my friends!

[RyNinDaCleM]

I just want to add...
If we are going down in that C wave from the first and second pics in that last post, this is what would be lying ahead as long as $420.27 holds. 


I just want to make that clear before everyone in here calls me some perma_ _ _ _. I just calls it like I sees it.

That is all! 

[scaryzet]

This thread is great! Please continue.

[BuildTheFuture]

Is it just me or is the stamp hourly making some kind of rising diagonal shape. If so, is this a leading diagonal of a wave 1 up, or is it an ending diagonal? Also there's a larger narrowing diagonal shape on the 4 hr.

[RyNinDaCleM]

Is it just me or is the stamp hourly making some kind of rising diagonal shape. If so, is this a leading diagonal of a wave 1 up, or is it an ending diagonal? Also there's a larger narrowing diagonal shape on the 4 hr.

This could absolutely be an ending diagonal for C of II, in which case the target I posted yesterday would be a bit on the short side. It could also be an ending diagonal for c of b of C in the orange triangle shown in the second chart.


Is the other narrowing pattern on the 4hr chart, the triangle chart (the 4th one) from post #81?

This may help, too!


The gray box is the overlap that invalidated the orange count unless the triangle completes.

I hope this all makes sense!

[BuildTheFuture]

Seems like a lot of possibles currently. Any way to narrow down what kind of diagonal it is? I was looking at the 30 min chart of OKCoin which is also showing this diagonal and it seems the first leg up might have 5 sub-waves.

re the possible 4hr triangle: On the 4 hr log scale chart on bitcoinwisdom you can draw a different (longer) triangle than you have on that 2nd chart from post 81, through the tops of the B, 2, and ii. Currently we would be just on the top line. The bottom line would connect the 1 and i?

[RyNinDaCleM]

Seems like a lot of possibles currently. Any way to narrow down what kind of diagonal it is? I was looking at the 30 min chart of OKCoin which is also showing this diagonal and it seems the first leg up might have 5 sub-waves.

re the possible 4hr triangle: On the 4 hr log scale chart on bitcoinwisdom you can draw a different (longer) triangle than you have on that 2nd chart from post 81, through the tops of the B, 2, and ii. Currently we would be just on the top line. The bottom line would connect the 1 and i?

The Black, blue and purple are all the same count with alternate endings. The orange is it's own and the red is it's own. If we go up, it doesn't necessarily mean the bull run is started, but it would be looking much better.

This is what BS shows


This is what I get for OKCoin


OKC looks like another wave up to complete C is necessary

[BuildTheFuture]

Looks like after taking a loooong time, that downmove is happening. Good call!

[RyNinDaCleM]

Looks like after taking a loooong time, that downmove is happening. Good call!

Elliott Wave has no sense of time

... and sorry I haven't been updating in a few days, I've been very busy. I'll try to get an update this evening (US EST)

[RyNinDaCleM]

Since the small triangle was invalidated with today's spike lower, this chart is still building off of the Bullish extended 3rd wave and the extended Bearish C wave counts. To determine which it ultimately is, we will have to wait a bit longer, but for now, this is one of my top, near term counts. As always, targets are found using Fibonacci exclusively. Targets are embedded in the chart and assume typical retracements of 38.2%  for each of the 4th waves. These targets can vary due to atypical retracements, but it gives an idea where this larger impulse is heading.



Today's market action produced the first lower low in 2 weeks. This together with no sign of bullish divergence means that further selling is likely to continue for the coming days. If selling continues through the weekend, especially if it escalates into heavy selling, the weekly MACD could cross down which would likely drive price even further down. The MACD cross isn't very likely, yet, but something to watch out for.

On a brighter note, that Bullish triangle is still valid. If we continue to drop, it will soon invalidate, but the price stopped right at the lower trend line, so we'll see what happens. Remember, this re-validates the Bullish invalidation of the wave 3 from 420.27-683.26 if it finishes and breaks up. This drop counts as the C wave in the chart below.




Get your trade on

[fallinglantern]

Glad to see I'm not the only one to notice the second triangle. I'd literally already had those lines on my bitcoinwisdom chart before the drop and it nestled perfectly against the bottom line.

[RyNinDaCleM]

Glad to see I'm not the only one to notice the second triangle. I'd literally already had those lines on my bitcoinwisdom chart before the drop and it nestled perfectly against the bottom line.

That would have been an excellent entry from an EW perspective. It had all the qualities of a great entry. A decently hardened support to place an order at, the second lowest price you could possibly get if we complete the bullish triangle and a clear, tight stop if it had continued lower. Those are the virtues of triangle trading

[RyNinDaCleM]

Not much has changed in the market. This drop is nearing it's end, but it's slowly pushing lower. It's a little short of the target, but the divergence is enough to consider it complete (along with the fact that (iii) is longer than (i)). We should see a bounce sooner rather than later as we look test $600-610 in the coming days. If the longer Bullish correction or the extended Bear market is to continue, the market will have trouble moving far beyond these levels, and we will see a further decline to the mid $500's. This is the same chart as the last only it now includes EWO (showing the divergence) and updated price action.



The bullish triangle previously shown, is only invalidated as far as I had it drawn. The thing about triangles is that the trend lines can be redrawn until an actual invalidation happens. In a normal situation, this triangle would be invalidated at a break of $538.38, however, this is a unique circumstance in that the final wave-E of said triangle MUST remain above the wave-I high at $548 to keep the Bullish impulse alive. If the trend line is flat, and the E reaches back to the lower trend line, the counts must be revised and the likely count will then become an ABC where $683 was the top of a larger A, the triangle is a larger B and we will see a C go up breaking current resistances up to $900+ before we see the large wave-(C) fall back to the $339 levels.

Something like this:


Risk on! ...or off, it's up to you

Edit:
As I was typing, target was hit! Divergence is still present so all remains the same unless the divergence is neutralized.

[RyNinDaCleM]

Well, the price eventually pushed through my target by about $5. Divergence held and we got our bounce. All else remains on track as of right now, heading toward the lower end of the $500's. Still no $600 retest, yet, but it does still look to be in the cards before more selling pushes us into the next wave down.  I will update if anything changes, but for now, enjoy the consolidation.

Chart

[RyNinDaCleM]

As I said last update, I believe a retest of $600 is still in the cards, but it's a matter of if the market can pull those cards soon enough or not. This is a close-up of the corrective move thus far. I was unsure if the A wave shown was the entire correction since it's a 3 wave structure, but since the following B wave was also 3 waves and not a new impulsive 5 wave move lower, This has me leaning toward a push upwards for the conclusion of the (iv) before heading down in the 5th wave to complete the 3. $600 is in the zone of "typical" retracements but is by no means a guaranteed target. I can see this falling short of 600 since there is still a definite lack of buying pressure. A C wave can be considered complete as of the 61.8% Fibo line around $593.76 as long as there are 5 sub-waves within it. Divergence will be found on either (OR both) the 30/60 minute charts signaling the likely top of the 5th wave of C.



I drew a channel in this chart as a way to find alternate targets. A good place to look is the 50%/mid-line and the 100% line (channel top). If it hits the channel mid-line as the top of C, it will be after the mid-line is above the 61.8% Fibo line (horizontal red line) since a C wave requires a minimum of 61.8% the length of wave-A.

I hope I explain these things well enough for everyone! Don't be afraid to ask questions

Good luck, and see you tomorrow

[twiifm]

Why do you draw an upward channel when the trend looks downward?

[fortif78]

I hope I explain these things well enough for everyone! Don't be afraid to ask questions

Good luck, and see you tomorrow

I've really enjoy your analysis thus far; you have me quite intrigued.

This thread has inspired me to do a little studying, would you be able to recommend any literature that delves into elliot wave analysis ?

[RyNinDaCleM]

Why do you draw an upward channel when the trend looks downward?

It's just the corrective channel within the larger downward channel

Like this

[RyNinDaCleM]

I hope I explain these things well enough for everyone! Don't be afraid to ask questions

Good luck, and see you tomorrow

I've really enjoy your analysis thus far; you have me quite intrigued.

This thread has inspired me to do a little studying, would you be able to recommend any literature that delves into elliot wave analysis ?

Thanks! It seems I'm accomplishing my intended goal! I'm glad I'm getting more of you guys interested
Below is a conversation with seleme about the same thing and some links to some great info on EW.

Ryan, what's the best resource to read about EW?

This is a good starting point http://www.forexhit.com/learn-forex/elliott-wave-principle.html
This gets a little deeper http://www.tradingfives.com/articles/elliott-wave-guide.htm
This one will help with the most difficult part of EW... Corrections! http://www.fxtimes.com/education/elliott-wave-basics-variations-in-corrective-waves/

As with anything, it takes a lot of practice. I counted every chart I came across then counted it again. When you think you have it, you count it again. What I like to do, to confirm I have the best counts possible, is to count it out in a higher time frame for the basic structure, then go to a lower time frame to confirm that each of my waves has the proper fractals making it up and fractals of those. I also try to avoid the "modern" EW as much as possible. It is used because of leverage markets where you can see odd movements. But to me, it just feels like bending the rules to fit a chart that is difficult to count.

[fortif78]

Thanks! It seems I'm accomplishing my intended goal! I'm glad I'm getting more of you guys interested
Below is a conversation with seleme about the same thing and some links to some great info on EW.

Whoops, missed that post when I was looking through. Thanks!