Ryans' log

[RyNinDaCleM]

Remember this chart? It seems to be holding quite well, but it could have thrown you off at ever step, haha.
The red count followed for a brief minute then the black held up to it's target  and settled there for a bit before jumping to the blue target where it has at least had a minor top for now.


An update to the still valid (for now) count.


Invalidation of that last chart has not happened yet, but if it were to, these would become my two top conflicting counts. The red count is a revised version of the second chart in this post, should invalidation happen. It has the wave (1) of III complete and we are currently in the wave-(2). The black count is the Bullish correction, completing the wave (2) of III up. This count looks a little better now because the rise yesterday was a 5 wave structure off the bottom which leans in the direction that the $607.90 invalidation point might be broken in the coming days. Targets are on the chart. If Bullish, we should be looking to test the recent $658 top for the  iii of 1 of (3) of III after this small correction completes. If Bearish, we should be looking around $620-640 for the top of the red (2) before heading down further in the bearish (C)-wave.


Remember that the above image is only after $607.90 is surpassed. Invalidation of the Bullish counts remains at $420.27. Invalidation of the revised Bearish count is a break of $658.88.

Below is an extra Bearish count that has us going for the $900's  before seeing a large C wave to new lows. This is just for posterity reasons.


Oh, and happy trading!

[seleme]

So overall, you're still kinda bullish short term.

[RyNinDaCleM]

So overall, you're still kinda bullish short term.

Very short term, there is a decent chance that $607.90 will be broken and I will be bullish leaning for at least a rise to the mid $600's where I will reassess the situation.
Until $607.90 is broken, I would say I'm generally neutral until something more compelling happens, though I may have more of a bearish bias, atm. This is mainly because of the rise off the $339 bottom appears more like a 3 wave structure to me. I'm talking about the first rise to $548. From an EW standpoint, this is bearish and everything up to $683.26 was a B or perhaps a large (a) of an even larger B. The latter is why I don't discount the possibility of a more substantial rise above $800+ in the short-mid term. Due to other technical factors, however, I don't see that happening, but those technicals are moving every day, so it's not impossible and I may change my mind. Until that happens, I trade in/out with 50% or less of my trading funds (I adjust to manage risk and 100% is too hard to get in and out without serious slippage)

[RyNinDaCleM]

So overall, you're still kinda bullish short term.

Very short term, there is a decent chance that $607.90 will be broken and I will be bullish leaning for at least a rise to the mid $600's where I will reassess the situation.
Until $607.90 is broken, I would say I'm generally neutral until something more compelling happens, though I may have more of a bearish bias, atm. This is mainly because of the rise off the $339 bottom appears more like a 3 wave structure to me. I'm talking about the first rise to $548. From an EW standpoint, this is bearish and everything up to $683.26 was a B or perhaps a large (a) of an even larger B. The latter is why I don't discount the possibility of a more substantial rise above $800+ in the short-mid term. Due to other technical factors, however, I don't see that happening, but those technicals are moving every day, so it's not impossible and I may change my mind. Until that happens, I trade in/out with 50% or less of my trading funds (I adjust to manage risk and 100% is too hard to get in and out without serious slippage)

In the mean time, until that $607.90 is broken, this is still the count I'm going by. This is a close up shot of the same chart I've been following for weeks now. Targets are in the chart.



Have fun!

[chessnut]

Hey Ryan,
Nice work here. Im tracking that triangle count too ^^
feels to me that there is really no strong motive in this market at all.
what are your thoughts on a larger scale triangle consistent with the Chinese markets? makes sense to me only the west doesn't fit the puzzle.

[RyNinDaCleM]

Hey Ryan,
Nice work here. Im tracking that triangle count too ^^
feels to me that there is really no strong motive in this market at all.
what are your thoughts on a larger scale triangle consistent with the Chinese markets? makes sense to me only the west doesn't fit the puzzle.

Oddly enough, The western exchanges is the only place where a triangle is still valid!

Huobi has more of a wedge going on with it's descending lower trend line


Whereas Stamp has a pretty decent triangle tracing out


The obvious lack of conviction, in either direction, is ideal territory for triangle making. My biggest argument against the triangle is all the 5 wave moves down and if you break volume up into specific buy and sell volume, the sells are far outweighing the buys over the last month. I guess we'll have to wait and see!

Just looked at everything since November on the Huobi chart... Are you talking about that big triangle? Where we are at the upper trend line right now, and looking to plummet nearly to the post ATH crash levels to complete? Yeah, BS broke that following Gox down the rabbit hole.

[chessnut]

Hey Ryan,
Nice work here. Im tracking that triangle count too ^^
feels to me that there is really no strong motive in this market at all.
what are your thoughts on a larger scale triangle consistent with the Chinese markets? makes sense to me only the west doesn't fit the puzzle.

Oddly enough, The western exchanges is the only place where a triangle is still valid!

Huobi has more of a wedge going on with it's descending lower trend line


Whereas Stamp has a pretty decent triangle tracing out


The obvious lack of conviction, in either direction, is ideal territory for triangle making. My biggest argument against the triangle is all the 5 wave moves down and if you break volume up into specific buy and sell volume, the sells are far outweighing the buys over the last month. I guess we'll have to wait and see!

Just looked at everything since November on the Huobi chart... Are you talking about that big triangle? Where we are at the upper trend line right now, and looking to plummet nearly to the post ATH crash levels to complete? Yeah, BS broke that following Gox down the rabbit hole.

True but Im talking about the IV wave on the largest scale. I think the chinese markets are clearly forming a triangle.


https://www.tradingview.com/x/urDTDXeq

[RyNinDaCleM]

I haven't updated in a few days because nothing has really happened to change my counts. Since the potential wave-4 went higher than previously estimated, I have revised the wave-5 target. This remains as my primary count until it is invalidated.

[vuduchyld]

Thanks for the update!  You do a great job of explaining your takes.

[RyNinDaCleM]

Thanks for the update!  You do a great job of explaining your takes.

No problem, Thanks, and I hope you're learning as we go!
Feel free to ask questions

[BuildTheFuture]

Are we there yet? 

[vuduchyld]

So what do you make of the morning dump to $525?

Was it so quick as to be meaningless?  Or does that get us the 61.8% retracement complete and ready for whatever is next?

[RyNinDaCleM]

To start this post, I will first post this old chart


The purple and red are the only two valid counts that remain in this chart.
Purple is in a definite lead right now, however, the bounce is rather weak, but this could change over the next hours to days. I have a few scenarios with some new invalidations for each.

The target I posted yesterday was hit, and passed through until it hit my original target almost perfectly. Why not?? 


Now this leaves me with some different possibilities for the next moves
To me, it appears that there is still one more down to complete the impulse. Labeled in red, I have outlined a path once the (iv) completes. Target is between $500 and $515 with invalidation of this continuation  at $576.44 (wave-(i) low). This invalidation point is only good if it's broken before getting that 5th wave down in the red count.
There is presently divergence between the current lower low and the $538.38 low from mid-June. This divergence is visible on hourly as well as the 4hr charts and is not in any immediate danger of being neutralized. This means that if my red count is correct, we should see a significant bounce (as a minimum) or a reversal (in the Bullish case). Which one it is, can only be determined by some invalidations at a later time.


The following moves would then be as follows:
If Bullish, there is no way to give a target for a wave-1 high until it is underway, at which time I will begin giving targets based on the price action at that time.

If a Bearish continuation is to happen, then the chart below will explain what I see happening next.


Trade on!

[RyNinDaCleM]

So what do you make of the morning dump to $525?

Was it so quick as to be meaningless?  Or does that get us the 61.8% retracement complete and ready for whatever is next?

No movements are meaningless in EW! It happened therefore someone, somewhere, had emotion about it. It did not get that 61.8% (which is at $520.73) but there is a good possibility that there is more to come. The invalidation of any Bullish scenario still lies at $420.27 (still a ways to go) and a wave-2 can retrace up to 100% of the wave-1. So by no means does a 61.8% hit mean the correction is guaranteed to be over.

[Queeq]

Wouldn't bearish (red) scenario be invalidated only if we cross 670 again? This is the only way it can't be counted as correction anymore.

[RyNinDaCleM]

Wouldn't bearish (red) scenario be invalidated only if we cross 670 again? This is the only way it can't be counted as correction anymore.

Yes, the longer Bear count invalidation would be at $683.26, but the invalidation point I was referring to was for my short term sub-waves (this particular count, at this time). Since I believed it to be in a 4th wave of some degree, the invalidation I specified was the wave-1 low of the same degree.

[Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay]

Hi Ryan,

Do I understand correctly than even in your bearish scenario there is a bounce up from around $504?

[Queeq]

So it seems now like we are in the end of v of (iii) of 5, right?

[Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay]

Thanks, that is very helpful to see longer scale

[JimNastics]

Looks like we could bottom anywhere between about $360 to $420, which would be healthy. I'll go massive long if we get down there.