Ryans' log

[RyNinDaCleM]

Target broken by $3. This is well within an acceptable margin of error, imo. However, with that low comes a very troubling view on the current situation. That divergence I spoke of in the last update has now been neutralized, which is a bad thing. I have revised my count to reflect this, and since it's only a mildly lower low on the EWO, this leads me to believe that there is more downside since no divergence has been created in this drop itself, to signal a 5th wave. Add to that, the weakness from the buyers (evident by the slow, weak bounces), this has the potential to get very ugly in the near future. I left the red count in case I'm wrong with these recent turn of events, but I added a possible count (purple) that is becoming more and more likely. This new count has at least 2 more waves lower. This leads to potentially more panic driven selling and the possibility of further margin calls which can make these targets even lower. The purple count is already dangerously close to the Bullish invalidation of $420.27 using only typical retraces and extensions. A little bit of elongation of the waves can make for some tough times ahead so this is a very crucial time.

The chart


A zoomed out shot to show the neutralized divergence that I was speaking of


If $420.27 is broken, all bets are off! It signals the end of any chance of a big rally any time soon (anything more than a suckers rally aka dead cat bounce). It will eliminate the possibility of the C and become only a III down which will lead to eventual targets below $339.


Just for the record, The times depicted in these charts are not meant to predict the time of a wave. I draw the waves out to show the general direction my counts say we are going. Elliott Wave has no sense of time except relative time compared to other waves of the same degree. If I tried to label the projections for time, many of them would be right on top of each other, quickly becoming an unreadable chart.

[vuduchyld]

Once again, thank you for sharing your work!  Much obliged!

[JimNastics]

To think this thread probably goes under the radar of a lot of people here... scary stuff. When you have periods like we've had recently, when good news and sentiment starts to stop having any effect, you have to fall back to TA for guidance. And TA, right now, is grim reading for bitcoin. Ryan's work corroborates with a number of other quality TA guys, they are all looking towards a decline to the $420 support at least, and all hell breaking lose if that gets broken.

[CEG5952]

RyNinDaCleM, thanks for this thread. I've picked up a lot. Not that I can wrap my head around Eliot Wave yet, but just general reads on the market, sentiment, divergences, etc. Good stuff.

[BuildTheFuture]

Ryan any opinion on this latest count by DanV, he seems to be going with the "large ABC" idea:

https://www.tradingview.com/v/HM51GS2Y/

(have to scroll all the way down in the comments to see his chart update)

[RyNinDaCleM]

Ryan any opinion on this latest count by DanV, he seems to be going with the "large ABC" idea:

https://www.tradingview.com/v/HM51GS2Y/

(have to scroll all the way down in the comments to see his chart update)

That is exactly the Bullish scenario in my counts that we are in danger of invalidating.

[RyNinDaCleM]

Good evening! Here anyway...
Well, on the bright side, we finally have some hourly divergence signaling the likely end of the (iii) of 5. This also fell a little short of my target making the idea of Bullish invalidation a little less likely, but we are by no means out of the woods yet. We should see a bump to $515-525 over the next 12-24 hours. Judging by the weak buying during this decline, I feel it may stay toward the lower end of that range, but I welcome a surprise for this one. Below is the current, very extended 5th wave and targets for (iv) and (what I expect to be) the final wave down for now


The current rise is taking a 3 wave structure which is corrective, but since this is a larger degree than the previous 4's over the last day or two, we should see a 5 waver up after the b completes. A target of $515-525 is what I'm looking for.

[RyNinDaCleM]

The (iv) seems to be complete but I don't discount one more wave up before heading down in the 5th wave. Divergence is present on the 30 minute chart and if we get one more move up, it will only make it bigger and possibly show up on the hourly chart. If this wave-(iv) is complete, my target for the 5th wave down is around $452.15. This will likely save the Bull from drowning in blood, but this does not confirm that the Bullish count is the absolute count. To confirm that (at least for the mid-term), we must invalidate any chance of a shorter term bear count by getting through the $658.88 high from the 1st of July (the wave-(1) invalidation).

This is the current situation minus a few bars of sideways movement.


This decline also made a low far enough below the wave-I low, that it could end up being the wave-III instead. This is confirmed by a failure to break above $538.38 (the wave-I low from the 14th of June) after the next wave down completes. This also happens to be the invalidation of the wave-III but this does not invalidate the wave-(1).

Below, a chart with these three options laid out. Blue being the Bullish count. Red being the same Bearish count that I have been updating for weeks and a new Purple count showing the path if this decline is a wave-III. Each with their respective invalidation points in their respective colors



Have fun!

[seleme]

Thanks Ryan. Not only the best analyzing thread but regular too, people usually get bored in few days.

[RyNinDaCleM]

Thanks Ryan. Not only the best analyzing thread but regular too, people usually get bored in few days.

Thanks! I'm glad you are enjoying the thread

I do try to keep it informational and not just a chart with no explanation. I want people to know how I came to the conclusions that I did/do. That's why I explain a bit of the underlying psychology that causes certain movements to happen... That it's not just a random walk! Maybe they can eventually start applying the technique to their own charting.

[h3speros]

Thanks Ryan. Not only the best analyzing thread but regular too, people usually get bored in few days.

Thanks! I'm glad you are enjoying the thread

I do try to keep it informational and not just a chart with no explanation. I want people to know how I came to the conclusions that I did/do. That's why I explain a bit of the underlying psychology that causes certain movements to happen... That it's not just a random walk! Maybe they can eventually start applying the technique to their own charting.

Here's another grateful reader, keep up the good work!

[BuildTheFuture]

High-five Ryan, great charting. Tell me we can go up now please 

[RyNinDaCleM]

I would love to! Unfortunately, I see a good possibility of one more down to $424.xx.
I can't post an update, because I'm on my phone. But I will as soon as I get back to my computer.

[vuduchyld]

As always, thank you for sharing your insight in such a readable and humble way!!!

You da man.

[RyNinDaCleM]

Thanks, and I'm glad you guys are enjoying it!

In about an hour or so I should be home and I'll work up an update for what's to come.

Hopefully I get there before anything crazy happens

[vuduchyld]

You'd have to engage in time travel in order to get home a couple of weeks ago for you to get there before anything crazy happened!

[seleme]

Hope you're right and just tired Ryan.

[RyNinDaCleM]

Hope you're right and just tired Ryan.

Tired?
Nah, but busy, yes!

[RyNinDaCleM]

This is a close-up of the recent action. It is easy to see 3 waves down since the (iv). This means that I am expecting one more down to find a somewhat significant bottom. This is if it's not THE bottom. Earlier, I thought a triangle was tracing out for iv, but sellers on Stamp had different ideas and made lower lows within the iv. Since the iv is nearly complete, I didn't bother adding a target for it, and the target for the final wave down is around $424 and change.



This is the chart with the three main outcomes that I outlined in the last update. Nothing has changed, but I just want keep everyone up to speed.

[seleme]

Hope you're right and just tired Ryan.

Tired?
Nah, but busy, yes!