Ryans' log

[h3speros]

This is a close-up of the recent action. It is easy to see 3 waves down since the (iv). This means that I am expecting one more down to find a somewhat significant bottom. This is if it's not THE bottom. Earlier, I thought a triangle was tracing out for iv, but sellers on Stamp had different ideas and made lower lows within the iv. Since the iv is nearly complete, I didn't bother adding a target for it, and the target for the final wave down is around $424 and change.



This is the chart with the three main outcomes that I outlined in the last update. Nothing has changed, but I just want keep everyone up to speed.

Do you expect a bounce to 510-520 now and then maybe back down? Seems like it could go back down from here also and not go over 500.

[RyNinDaCleM]

My "one more down" subwaves count was invalidated once it broke above $485.39 (wave-i of (v) of 5 low). This tells me that a larger degree impulse lower is complete. This resulted in the rise that we have had over the last two days.
Considering there is no hourly divergences to speak of, it's likely we still have a little rising left before we fall back.
This is the count for the current correction.


I see one more up (with a target of ~$547) before going down again.

I am trying to put together a full update to cover the last few days and what we might be looking at in the short term

[vuduchyld]

I know you are busy and I really appreciate your insight. Got a couple of questions when you have time.

What made 485 the invalidation point? I thought it was 529, but a lot has happened since then. Just trying to learn rather than follow you like a puppy dog on this thread.

After 547 (not really all that far from here), are you looking at an impulse down that gets us lower than the recent lows? Or is this a beginning of a set of waves that have higher lows, higher highs, and carry us up in the medium term?

As always, thank you for your insight!

Your biggest fan,
vuduchyld

[RyNinDaCleM]

For this update, I will first post the 4 hour chart with the three most likely paths in the short term.


All invalidations remain the same. If we hit my $547 target, this will invalidate the purple count.

Since my count from the last full update was invalidated, a larger degree impulse must have been completed. Somewhere in there I ended up a wave behind. So in an attempt to find it, I recounted the entire decline since $683. I did so on multiple time frames from 4hr down to 10 minute charts to check divergences of the different degrees of sub waves. In my quest, I seem to have found a better count, but with this rise having a slightly more powerful feeling to it, this count is not my top count... Yet!

This one is a bit more bearish and will definitely invalidate my Bullish count (blue in the chart above).


This count is more fitting because the power behind the steep drop-off is typical of a 3rd of 3rd wave rather than the 5th of 3rd. This also fits with the corrective rise we have seen over the last too days. It actually calls for it.  I'm not going to use this as my primary count until a lower low is made, and still only then if the bottom divergence grows larger. I just wanted to post this chart to keep it in mind.

Trade on... Safely!

[BuildTheFuture]

So that possible new count, is it also invalidated at 538.38?

[RyNinDaCleM]

I know you are busy and I really appreciate your insight. Got a couple of questions when you have time.

What made 485 the invalidation point? I thought it was 529, but a lot has happened since then. Just trying to learn rather than follow you like a puppy dog on this thread.

After 547 (not really all that far from here), are you looking at an impulse down that gets us lower than the recent lows? Or is this a beginning of a set of waves that have higher lows, higher highs, and carry us up in the medium term?

As always, thank you for your insight!

Your biggest fan,
vuduchyld

If you look in my chart from a couple of days ago, when I said "I think there is one more down before the big bounce" (or something to that effect, You see a horizontal line that says "Invalidation" Follow it to the left, to where it ends, and you will see the bottom of the wave-i. Once we move beyond that price, the count becomes invalid since a wave-4 cannot retrace into the price territory of wave-1. This is a rule of EW. At that point, I have to revise my count.

This rise looks corrective to me (lots of 3 wave patterns and lots of overlapping waves). Now this can change if we get a few more extensions up from here. That would turn the A & B into nested 1 & 2 waves. With this type of system, the only way to confirm a reversal, is to wait for invalidation of all near term bear counts. Unfortunately, this is at the $683 high. Reason #1 why you don't use EW by itself for trading.
Currently, I still see down as general trend. This doesn't mean you can't go long at the right times, just that you need to have a plan, and stick to your plan.

[RyNinDaCleM]

So that possible new count, is it also invalidated at 538.38?

I added the invalidation point to the chart and edited my post to change the chart.
Invalidation of that count would be exceeding $607.90 before getting lows below $442.00

[vuduchyld]

Great explanation. Thanks!

[RyNinDaCleM]

We got that one more up. No $547, but it is now considered a completed ABC, but... With a little more progress in the last 24 hours, there is a count that could turn into much more for the Bullish case. I'm not going to say the bottom is definitely in, but this is looking fairly promising for the shorter term. This count can also fit into the bearish wave-(2) and even the extra count I posted yesterday for the wave-4. So it's not certain which it is yet. However, this rise has enough extension to allow for a nearly complete impulsive count. Another reason this is looking better is that there is still no divergence to speak of in the hourly indicators (RSI, MACD). If we rise from here, we can expect a pullback soon after and also another rise after that, that could equal the rise off the $442 low until now. The size of that next wave if/when it happens, will help decide if it's a 3rd or a larger C and will paint a better picture of the current market conditions.


This can also drop from here and end the correction I was talking about yesterday.

The validity of the Purple Bearish count is in jeopardy. A completed impulse here will likely invalidate it in the next day or two. All of this lies in the hands of buyers. Do they have enough strength to go higher? Will the bears take the market back? We'll soon find out

[h3speros]

Is the purple count now starting to materializing?

[RyNinDaCleM]

Is the purple count now starting to materializing?

It is very possible! However it cannot be confirmed without going below $442 as the very next move. This doesn't mean in one spike, but it must not rise above 538.38 first.

[Tzupy]

I doubt 442$ will fall soon. First there's an inflection point that decides going up to maybe 560$, which is now major resistance, or deflating to 480$.

[RyNinDaCleM]

Today, we had invalidation of my possible Bullish count that would have meant the bottom was in. This doesn't mean go short with max leverage, but it no longer looks good for the bulls as far as this rise is concerned. It no longer has a forced or otherwise impulsive structure to it. I didn't bother to move the labels around since I posted this count two days ago, but the break of 493.98 would have been the 4 until it fell below that mark. $493.98 was the top of the leading diagonal wave-1.


It becomes more probable that this was an ABC. After the downtrend we had, the C may end up being an even larger (A), but that is unknown until we get higher highs.
This is a peek at what that scenario could look like and a target should we get this count. Expect 5 waves up to complete the larger (C).

There is a mild Bullish divergence on the hourly EWO, so this could play out in the near term.

[RyNinDaCleM]

I just want to add;
I counted the C of (B) on a 10 minute chart, and it appears to be missing a wave. So, first down, then up in that 5 wave (C). Look out for $486-476.

Another option for the wave 4/IV is a triangle. I'm not going to post a pic of it yet since there are not enough waves to even draw it out so I'm not going to freehand it in. But as soon as it looks like it's forming, I will post it up.

[RyNinDaCleM]

Sorry, all! I've been busy again for the last few days. Please "bear" with me. I haven't even been watching the charts a lot so I'm a bit behind on my charts, so the next few updates may be a bit scatterbrained. I may post many different counts while I try to get back in my groove.


Right now,my top two counts are the bearish corrective IV/(2). IV if we stay below 538.38 and (2) if we invalidate the III. We now have a few waves that can be counted as the beginnings of the triangle I spoke of in my last post.

This is the triangle count. Keep in mind that the lines can be adjusted until invalidation so these (especially the lower) are not concrete.


The purple wave-III/IV count is still holding up and the triangle would fit in nicely to the IV/4.


The current situation seems a little bullish for at least the short term, but it still lacks the conviction that signifies a reversal. This count is where I feel we are (if not the triangle above). I used OKCoin for this one because Bitstamp chart is terrible right now, and OKCoin is usually a little clearer. Even OKCoin has many overlaps and many 3 wave moves which still looks corrective to me.


This is a complex correction (if it completes as counted). Labeled WXY each has a 3 wave structure, ABC, and we would be in the C of Y. OKC has finished a leading diagonal for 1 and is in the pull-back now. If this count plays out, look for prices above 3400CNY when it's all said 'n done. This would correspond with the red (2) in the second chart.

Enjoy!

 

[RyNinDaCleM]

This is just a quick update about the triangle that seems to be manifesting itself in the charts. Breaking below $487 before first getting a rise to complete the triangle will invalidate it and we will be looking down to find the next target. I have also added the possibility of a triangle B wave that would have a C reaching up to the $590's. I think the latter is much less likely, but we will have to see where this goes. Notice how the triangle fits into both of the bearish counts in the second chart.







Happy weekend!

[RyNinDaCleM]

The triangle Wave-D will be complete in the next hour or so if it's not already. The next bounce off the upper trend line will be around $514 however, a triangle wave-E does not necessarily HAVE to hit the upper resistance to complete the triangle, it only needs to change direction (ie a quick spike to the triangle apex will do). So be on the lookout for heavier resistance  and weakening volume as we begin to move higher.

[CoinBurner]

Many thanks for the excellent analysis! This has become one of my favorite TA threads, and probably second best EW thread on btctalk, only after masterluc's one 
If I understand correctly, given the recent break of 487 we should now have entered the V wave of the purple count. Noob (and obvious  ) question here: what could be a reasonable downside target? Following what I understand are some tyipical EW rules the 5th wave can be 0.382 or 0.618 times the whole distance from the start of wave I (683) to the end of wave III (441), giving a target of 410 or 355 respectively... or even less if we have extensions etc!! 

[RyNinDaCleM]

Many thanks for the excellent analysis! This has become one of my favorite TA threads, and probably second best EW thread on btctalk, only after masterluc's one 
If I understand correctly, given the recent break of 487 we should now have entered the V wave of the purple count. Noob (and obvious  ) question here: what could be a reasonable downside target? Following what I understand are some tyipical EW rules the 5th wave can be 0.382 or 0.618 times the whole distance from the start of wave I (683) to the end of wave III (441), giving a target of 410 or 355 respectively... or even less if we have extensions etc!! 

Yes, it seems that my original wave-E was the correct one. I changed it because of the scale of the waves preceding it. The triangle is indeed complete and we are heading down in the purple count. As for targets and wave numbers, I will have to work up an update but you math skills sound about right for a target if it is the 5th. I did post an alternate count a week or two ago outlining a count where the triangle was 4 of III. If that is the case, then the initial target will be higher since it's for a lower degree wave. I have a few things to do this morning so I will just leave this for now

If it's the V of (C):


If it's the 5 of III:

[myself]

I annoyed OP in private for quite some time to start a PAMM and nothing so is time to start a public petition for RyNinDaCleM start a damn fucking PAMM