Ryans' log

[vuduchyld]

Then maybe we get a big, oversold rally???

[RyNinDaCleM]

Then maybe we get a big, oversold rally???

I wouldn't say that we are that oversold yet. I'm not sure when you are talking about. After iii is hit? For the rally...
Remember, we are in tiny subwaves of V, so pullbacks are also going to be tiny and short lived (relatively speaking) so the iv will only be a ~$10 correction.

[vuduchyld]

Well, I was thinking after v, which shouldn't get way lower than iii since the waves are small.

[RyNinDaCleM]

Well, I was thinking after v, which shouldn't get way lower than iii since the waves are small.

Well, this is using typical points (as always) but it is still only the v of (iii) of 3 of V so there is quite a ways further we can go. Also, that v of (iii) is targeted for a break of $442 which is going to be seen as bearish by many, and shorts may compound and selling may pick up leading to a longer v below my target and possibly near $400.

Not trying to stir the pot here, but it's a little bit of the psychology that triggers larger moves and sentimental shifts

[vuduchyld]

Ah...gotcha.  Good info.  I don't think you are a pot-stirrer at all!  Thanks again, Ryan!

[CoinBurner]

Also, that v of (iii) is targeted for a break of $442 which is going to be seen as bearish by many, and shorts may compound and selling may pick up leading to a longer v below my target and possibly near $400.

Also [not sure if strictly relevant in an EW thread] seems right now at ~450 we are sitting on this long term support line which held about 6 times so far... could have a big psychological effect too if broken on volume

https://i.imgur.com/G5WVQgQ.png

by the way... masterful call so far 

[scarsbergholden]

The moves seem rather muted as we continue to grind down. Are we eventually expecting a plunge down similar to August 10th? I can't help but feel that if we keep on this way without gathering any bullish momentum, that we could see sub-400 in a hurry.

[RyNinDaCleM]

I'm away from home and my laptop took a shit with all my charts on it so I can't give any update for about 5 hours... Sorry guys!

[RyNinDaCleM]

I just got home, and my laptop isn't dead, but it wouldn't start with the toasted battery... So I'm happy about that!

A quick update for now; Wave-iv has hit the target zone, but I'm still on the fence about whether or not we are done correcting. I'll get a full update out after I can really check it out. As of now, upcoming targets still apply.

[RyNinDaCleM]

The quick update is where I stand for now. The next target lower will break the $442 resistance so hold on tight! It could get bumpy. A preliminary target of ~$433 is in the cards, but this may change if we start to see heavier selling than anticipated once that resistance is broken.

It appears that the market wants a little more push out of this iv so I don't discount another move higher or a longer sideways move before continuing down.

Here is a refined chart of the one I posted a little bit ago together with a couple more targets.


Be careful!

[Raystonn]

So if we hit $433 and move up out of your box, EW says that will be our bottom and we should begin climbing in waves toward a new ATH?

[twiifm]

So if we hit $433 and move up out of your box, EW says that will be our bottom and we should begin climbing in waves toward a new ATH?

No he didnt say that.  Lol. You gotta confirm a reversal first and that takes a long time

[Raystonn]

If a long wait is required, then it's not a tradable signal.

[RyNinDaCleM]

So if we hit $433 and move up out of your box, EW says that will be our bottom and we should begin climbing in waves toward a new ATH?

No

If you've been following this thread, you may remember this chart.

I just added a few things to it. The red box marked "iii" (which is what we are heading towards) and the iv (which is the move up out of my box). The box at $397 has been there for a few weeks now. It is the 3 of V and it may need adjustment by the time we are heading there, but it's irrelevant right now. We are a long way from bottoming if this count is correct in it's entirety. If not, then I revise and post it. It has happened a few times, and it will happen again. But until it's invalidated, and as far as this market is concerned, this is the path we are on. Love it or hate it, but right now, it's the truth. We will get pullbacks along the way which are very tradable. That iv for instance... $20/BTC is nothing to bitch about. The 4 will be more like 50 or so.. When we hit the bottom, I'll shout it from the rooftops. Even then, there still remains a possibility that we have further to go after that. When the outlook changes, I will post it.

Sorry if this sounds a bit brash, but every reply you make to me, all I can picture is grumpy cat saying it all bitchy.

[phoenix1]

Thanks for the update Ryan
IIRC, you used higher level labels in the 10 min chart in order to show things more clearly, so your 3 and 4 labels on that chart are actually the (iii) and (iv) of 3 of V on 240 min chart. Is that correct ?
So we would currently be completing iv of (iii) / starting v of (iii) of 3 of V

BTW excellent analysis so far and I totally agree with your sentiment on where this is headed


Sorry ... couldn't resist  

all I can picture is grumpy cat saying it all bitchy  

[h3speros]

more like: "your analysis... not what i hoped for" it's good analysis that's why it hurts to read it as holder (i'm not holder)

[oda.krell]

If a long wait is required, then it's not a tradable signal.

That's not what he meant with 'confirmation'. It's not a binary indicator like some average crossover, where 'lag' means 'less profit'. From what I understand, you would trade the smaller segments (waves? pardon my non-EW terminology) in between, while waiting for the larger ones to confirm (or not) the larger direction. So the confirmation time on the larger wave wouldn't (necessarily) affect the profitability of your trades in general.

[RyNinDaCleM]

If a long wait is required, then it's not a tradable signal.

That's not what he meant with 'confirmation'. It's not a binary indicator like some average crossover, where 'lag' means 'less profit'. From what I understand, you would trade the smaller segments (waves? pardon my non-EW terminology) in between, while waiting for the larger ones to confirm (or not) the larger direction. So the confirmation time on the larger wave wouldn't (necessarily) affect the profitability of your trades in general.

This is true while also mitigating risk. It helps in identifying trends and because of the rules, helps in setting stops and deciding if a trade should be held.

BTW, $442 is broken, so we'll see how this goes.

[h3speros]

maybe we see over extend to at least 420 or maybe even near 400?

[RyNinDaCleM]

maybe we see over extend to at least 420 or maybe even near 400?

It is possible but we could go for the retest of lost support first