Ryans' log

[seleme]

We went below 435 so easy. Damn, I thought it's bouncing point too and took long there 

[h3speros]

We went below 435 so easy. Damn, I thought it's bouncing point too and took long there 

don't worry it's likely to bounce over 435 soon

[var53]

maybe we see over extend to at least 420 or maybe even near 400?

It is possible but we could go for the retest of lost support first

It bounced a tiny little bit and then carried on straight back down.

http://www.coindesk.com/price/ now says it's $420, but https://coinmarketcap.com/#USD says it's $430.

[RyNinDaCleM]

We went below 435 so easy. Damn, I thought it's bouncing point too and took long there 

It's looking like this old count   

[seleme]

Hopefully it will bounce, I'm deep long from 430. Already in drawdown more than profit I made from 460s drop  

Took serious loss on absolute bottom 30 seconds before bounce, I'm fucking idiot  

[seleme]

Awful, awful trade I made... it bounced to my eventual break even.

[var53]

How much did you lose?

[RyNinDaCleM]

Awful, awful trade I made... it bounced to my eventual break even.

Sorry to here that... I did say that once 442 was broke that there was a good chance of panic setting in driving us beyond my target. I hope you can recover from it.

[phoenix1]

We went below 435 so easy. Damn, I thought it's bouncing point too and took long there 

It's looking like this old count   

What was it that made you revert to this count Ryan ?

[RyNinDaCleM]

We went below 435 so easy. Damn, I thought it's bouncing point too and took long there 

It's looking like this old count   

What was it that made you revert to this count Ryan ?

Not really reverting... More of an observation. I'm on my phone looking at my charts so it difficult to assess the situation from here :/

[phoenix1]

We went below 435 so easy. Damn, I thought it's bouncing point too and took long there 

It's looking like this old count   

What was it that made you revert to this count Ryan ?

Not really reverting... More of an observation. I'm on my phone looking at my charts so it difficult to assess the situation from here :/

Pretty tough from here too !!

[seleme]

Made back my loss on ltc already but boy it could be wonderful day if I missed this btc trade. Would be 10 btc profit 

[RyNinDaCleM]

I just got home, here's a Chart.


I'll explain after I eat.

So today's sell-off hit hard. As I said in recent posts, we had a decent amount of selling once $442 was broken. Ultimately bypassing my target by a considerable amount. I missed it and ended up buying a bit too early because I was away and unable to really eye my charts from my phone. At the time, my target was hit (and beyond), cover limits were hit and it was looking like a good time to enter for a bounce. That was in the $420's. Not bad, but could have been better if I was home and available. I probably would have also made several posts updating the current situation and adjusting targets.

Anyway, In today's chart, I noticed that there is yet to be divergence in the hourly EWO. This is a sign that there is more to come, but it does appear that a 3 of some degree has completed. I labeled  it as 3 but the actual count is iii of (iii) of 3 of ... Which is where I am undecided at the moment (More on that in a minute). So for the time being I have a target for 4 and I threw in a b-wave target for those looking to exit a short at a slightly better price, or looking to buy a few to start tapering in. The 4 could be a day or so, so it gives the hourly EWO time to correct and make it's return trip to the Zero line. This will be a determining factor on where we are going and how far over the next week or so. If we get that "return to zero" (confirming a wave 4) then I can get a better target for the 5. This is what I am undecided about... The power behind this wave lower (comparatively speaking, of course), combined with a few other indicators I use, says that we may still be in the wave-III which would likely bottom below $400. Alternately, my count that I have been working with lately is labeled as we are in the 5th of (C). Price action over the coming days should give me a better idea which larger count we are in. In either case, the count in today's chart works for both and is not affected by either outcome.

[MoreFun]

I just got home, here's a Chart.

I'll explain after I eat.

I hope you already finished the desert...  its classic recovery, but should be 70% certain to realize. Waiting for longer explanation. $415 needs to hold and pushup us.

[RyNinDaCleM]

I just got home, here's a Chart.

I'll explain after I eat.

I hope you already finished the desert...   its classic recovery, but should be 70% certain to realize. Waiting for longer explanation. $415 needs to hold and pushup us.

b-waves don't really have invalidation, so there is no confirmation until it goes there except for wave structure. 3 waves is corrective

[h3speros]

do we get hope from double bottomish action and then head to 440-450 and then BAM all hope is lost and <400 comes? (im just pondering this analysis psychology aspect)

EDIT. nope, this is not duoble bottomish action

[RyNinDaCleM]

It's looking more and more like we're still in that III I was talking about in my last post  
The 30 minute chart is the highest time frame to get the return to zero, which means there is still more to come. By the time the hourly gets a 4th, the 4hr divergence will likely get neutralized, and by the time the 4hr has it's return to zero, the Daily divergence that is slightly present now in RSI, may be neutralized too.

TL;DR there is a little ways to go yet.

This is a quick mock up of what we could see in the coming days.


Watch the $339 wave-A bottom!! We may see a double bottom there, but if we break it, we could also see a similar event that we did yesterday with the $442 break.

[h3speros]

i went all in at 410 so this much lower came surprise but im waiting patiently that we bounce at least to 420+

EDIT. yep going all in is risky, i know =)

[RyNinDaCleM]

i went all in at 410 so this much lower came surprise but im waiting patiently that we bounce at least to 420+

EDIT. yep going all in is risky, i know =)

I've lost so much time with busy things, that I kind of got out of my groove. 

[h3speros]

i went all in at 410 so this much lower came surprise but im waiting patiently that we bounce at least to 420+

EDIT. yep going all in is risky, i know =)

I've lost so much time with busy things, that I kind of got out of my groove. 

you did great, don't feel that way