Ryans' log

[RyNinDaCleM]

Actually, this was pretty amusing to me.  
What I'll do is clean it up, but consolidate it all into one post.

I'd just like to remind everyone here that EW is based entirely on technical analysis.  This works great in the absence of any strong fundamental change that disrupts the technical progression of price.  I will leave it as an exercise to the reader to determine if/when we hit such a disruption.

How many of the previous run ups has EW analysis helped you predict Ryan?

I noticed a comment on this forum posted in 2011 by you recently. I am curious why you need to bother with TA when you presumably have had the opportunity to buy in when prices were a hundred times cheaper than now?

Indeed I was here in 2011 and bought many hundreds of coins at $2.xx after selling my mining proceeds around $10. I have since multiplied my holdings many times using my knowledge of markets. Why am I still here? Well, Bitcoin is a special kind of animal. The volatility is second to none (when we get it) and I can do my trading at any time of day I desire since it's a 24/7 market, and it's fun for me. It's just something I enjoy! This thread is sort of my way to "give back" to those that drove the price so high making my life a little less stressful. I'm sure those who aren't writing this thread off as "TA, therefore can't possibly work" are profiting handsomely with their new found knowledge they are gathering, and will continue to as long as there are financial trading markets.

How many of the previous run ups has EW analysis helped you predict Ryan?

I noticed a comment on this forum posted in 2011 by you recently. I am curious why you need to bother with TA when you presumably have had the opportunity to buy in when prices were a hundred times cheaper than now?

Wait! I think I know the answer to that one:

Because 'even more money' is even better than 'a lot of money'?

Sorry I couldn't resist after seeing the TA showing bitcoin dropping to 15 dollars (lol).

Sorry I couldn't resist after seeing the TA showing bitcoin dropping to 15 dollars (lol).

Eh, he was just kidding. Just good natured bear fun

Anyway, nobody trades on EW alone, not even RyN, I'm pretty sure. It's more like a "road map" as far I understand it, to plot out different (not all equally likely) scenarios ahead of time, then, depending on shorter term developments, re-arrange aspects of those scenarios (and possibly re-rank their likelihood), and finally derive targets (good entry/exists point for a position) from them.

Any actual EWer please feel free to correct me

oda was correct in his assumption that it was a joke, which is why I said:

Alright, that was all a joke, but the first one is the one I think he was talking about.

Also oda is correct that I do not only use EW for my trades. I have said it numerous times through this thread, and I stand by it.

ryn time to use the hammer and clean the thread

More words to live by. If I worried about every person in this forum, I'd drive myself crazy.

ryn time to use the hammer and clean the thread

(sorry, now it's surely time to use it)

This is good, and I will

[RyNinDaCleM]

I had a private chat with some fellow bitcoiners who were asking about divergences and what causes them. I will make a post here to explain them and the cause/effect of what makes them so useful.

Bullish divergence
Bullish divergence happens when an indicator makes a higher low while price makes a lower low. This is caused by low volume market sells into thin depth bids. Many bids were already removed in search of lower entries. This happens in 5th waves because sellers are exhausted and buyers want better prices, naturally. Therefore, the price moves easier and with less force than the 3rd wave which then creates the divergence.

Hidden Bullish divergence
The hidden Bullish divergence is a bit different to Regular Bullish divergence in that it is more of an accumulation of the asset. Heavy volume trying (and failing) to move the price down. This makes lower lows on indicators combined with higher lows in price.

Bearish divergence
Bearish divergence is the exact opposite of Bullish divergence. Indicator makes lower highs while price makes higher highs. Just like regular Bullish divergence, this happens when the price moves easier than the indicator, usually due to low volume, high slippage market buying. This happens in 5th waves of Bullish trends and is caused by an exhaustion of buyers.

Hidden Bearish divergence
Hidden Bearish divergence, again, is different than regular Bearish divergence in that it is more of the distribution side. High volume market buying into massive resistance which halts progress in price but due to the high volume, makes higher highs in the indicator and lower highs in price


Divergences can go on for a few bars before they are really aknowledged by the market. For instance, there is divegence on the daily chart, and has been for a while. But if there is a 4th wave "Return to zero" on a lower time frame, then the Daily divergence will wait until the 5th wave is complete before it is truely locked in. This is why you see 2, 3 or even 5 spikes of larger divergences before the signal is actually correct. This is what I was talking about in one of my posts earlier in this thread when I said there is still time to neutralize the daily divergence before it is actually a strong enough signal to trade from.

Take this chart.

There is a pretty large divergence currently. But inside that box, there is no way to count 5 waves down without overlap. So this divergence is not "Locked in" until a valid wave is complete. A 5th wave can neutralize this divergence if it's strong enough. It can also make a second higher low in the EWO, but then a 5th wave would be complete, effectively locking in the divergence and making a strong trading signal. So this means the lower time frame sub-waves need to complete before the higher time frame divergences can be utilized effectively. If you only trade based on Weekly charts, you may sit for weeks waiting for the market to turn in your favor, missing out on profits (but it is lower risk).

oda.krell pointed me to a prime example posted by JustAnotherSheep of a Daily divergence that got wider and wider before it was the strong signal it eventually became. This is exactly what I am talking about here. The lower time frames had unfinished business that had to be completed before the Daily signal was ripe.

Courtesy of JustAnotherSheep;

[vuduchyld]

Wow...dude, you are so humble posting in this thread...I had no idea you were a semi-whale!  Glad to hear it, though.  You absolutely deserve that success you've had.

Thanks for the explanations about divergence. 

One other question about EW in general...what kind of volume would you think is necessary to get accurate readings?  I've got a couple of alts I'm following and I'm wondering if it would be worth trying to apply some EW analysis to charts for XMR and/or BTM.

Keep up the great work!

[kingscrown]

loving such threads!

[Raystonn]

Wow...dude, you are so humble posting in this thread...I had no idea you were a semi-whale!

Does the market follow EW?  Or does the market follow his whale money, which follows his EW charts?  TA can be a self fulfilling prophecy based on how much money follows any particular TA.

[RyNinDaCleM]

Wow...dude, you are so humble posting in this thread...I had no idea you were a semi-whale!

Does the market follow EW?  Or does the market follow his whale money, which follows his EW charts?  TA can be a self fulfilling prophecy based on how much money follows any particular TA.

I'm no whale compared to the money involved in Bitcoin. I also have over 50% of my total BTC in cold storage. I have worked hard to do what I have done in trading and this thread. So no need to go there... 

Truth be told, Bitcoin was my first financial vehicle. 2012 was my first intro to TA and EW. I have put countless hours into learning what I know, practicing what I've learned, and applying my knowledge.

On an aside... I called Silvers demise in June of last year. My plan is to buy physical at or around $15. I came to my targets using my own EW skills. Do I have the wealth of JPM to force Silver toward my target? Not even close

[vuduchyld]

Wow...dude, you are so humble posting in this thread...I had no idea you were a semi-whale!

Does the market follow EW?  Or does the market follow his whale money, which follows his EW charts?  TA can be a self fulfilling prophecy based on how much money follows any particular TA.

Certainly possible that other market participants follow EW charts or even this thread.  If Ryan had, as he said, many hundred BTC, even if he multiplied it several times, I don't suspect he's personally moving the market.

Man, I'm pretty skeptical of TA in general, especially in a market that is as thinly traded as BTC, but based on what I've seen in following this thread pretty closely for...I don't know how long...my ears and eyes are open to some possibilities that I wouldn't have considered before.

I've been a reasonably good investor over time, definitely NOT great.  I've been a pretty horrible trader.  I do best when I understand fundamentals and economics....much better than I do with understanding markets.  Frankly, in crypto, there just aren't the same indicators that one can get on publicly traded stocks, for example.  Can't use PE, PEG, price/book, price/revenue, etc.... can't understand market player consolidation and associated multiples related to that with crypto.  I did very well in financial services sector about ten years ago by loading up on companies that would eventually be acquired.

In the absence of those tools, and given what I've seen in this thread....  

[RyNinDaCleM]

Wow...dude, you are so humble posting in this thread...I had no idea you were a semi-whale!  Glad to hear it, though.  You absolutely deserve that success you've had.

Thanks for the explanations about divergence.  

One other question about EW in general...what kind of volume would you think is necessary to get accurate readings?  I've got a couple of alts I'm following and I'm wondering if it would be worth trying to apply some EW analysis to charts for XMR and/or BTM.

Keep up the great work!

I do actively chart and trade XMR, BBR, DRK, LTC and NXT. They all work pretty well with TA. Like the earlier years of Bitcoin, they tend to way overshoot targets (likely due to panic from inexperienced traders), but over all, they respond well to TA and EW. Higher volume is better, but in the case of Dog, higher volumes don't matter because it is in a seemingly infinite inflation so there will always be more selling pressure than buying pressure.

[vuduchyld]

Wow...dude, you are so humble posting in this thread...I had no idea you were a semi-whale!  Glad to hear it, though.  You absolutely deserve that success you've had.

Thanks for the explanations about divergence.  

One other question about EW in general...what kind of volume would you think is necessary to get accurate readings?  I've got a couple of alts I'm following and I'm wondering if it would be worth trying to apply some EW analysis to charts for XMR and/or BTM.

Keep up the great work!

I do actively chart and trade XMR, BBR, DRK, LTC and NXT. They all work pretty well with TA. Like the earlier years of Bitcoin, they tend to way overshoot targets (likely due to panic from inexperienced traders), but over all, they respond well to TA and EW. Higher volume is better, but in the case of Dog, higher volumes don't matter because it is in a seemingly infinite inflation so there will always be more selling pressure than buying pressure.

I should probably go back and read through the thread, but didn't you say you use Sierra Charts?  I took a quick look and didn't see XMR.  Is there another tool you use?

I'd love to see what waves you're counting on XMR and hear your take in general.  In particular, I'm wondering how you account for a big event.  With XMR, the BCX event was probably even a bigger impact than the paypal was for BTC.

[RyNinDaCleM]

Wow...dude, you are so humble posting in this thread...I had no idea you were a semi-whale!  Glad to hear it, though.  You absolutely deserve that success you've had.

Thanks for the explanations about divergence.  

One other question about EW in general...what kind of volume would you think is necessary to get accurate readings?  I've got a couple of alts I'm following and I'm wondering if it would be worth trying to apply some EW analysis to charts for XMR and/or BTM.

Keep up the great work!

I do actively chart and trade XMR, BBR, DRK, LTC and NXT. They all work pretty well with TA. Like the earlier years of Bitcoin, they tend to way overshoot targets (likely due to panic from inexperienced traders), but over all, they respond well to TA and EW. Higher volume is better, but in the case of Dog, higher volumes don't matter because it is in a seemingly infinite inflation so there will always be more selling pressure than buying pressure.

I should probably go back and read through the thread, but didn't you say you use Sierra Charts?  I took a quick look and didn't see XMR.  Is there another tool you use?

I'd love to see what waves you're counting on XMR and hear your take in general.  In particular, I'm wondering how you account for a big event.  With XMR, the BCX event was probably even a bigger impact than the paypal was for BTC.

Yes, I use SierraChart for Bitcoin, Litecoin and DRK. I was going to write my own data feed for the others, I just haven't got around to it yet.
Based on Trading view charts
https://cryptrader.com/charts/poloniex/xmr/btc
They have a lot of markets there.

[h3speros]

if i have understood correctly, the count to 460+ has invalidated?

[Queeq]

I do actively chart and trade XMR, BBR, DRK, LTC and NXT. They all work pretty well with TA. Like the earlier years of Bitcoin, they tend to way overshoot targets (likely due to panic from inexperienced traders), but over all, they respond well to TA and EW. Higher volume is better, but in the case of Dog, higher volumes don't matter because it is in a seemingly infinite inflation so there will always be more selling pressure than buying pressure.

Do you strictly follow the EW rules for altcoin markets as well?

[RyNinDaCleM]

if i have understood correctly, the count to 460+ has invalidated?

Yep! It ended up being this


Except it might be a 3/4 instead of the pictured iii/iv

I do actively chart and trade XMR, BBR, DRK, LTC and NXT. They all work pretty well with TA. Like the earlier years of Bitcoin, they tend to way overshoot targets (likely due to panic from inexperienced traders), but over all, they respond well to TA and EW. Higher volume is better, but in the case of Dog, higher volumes don't matter because it is in a seemingly infinite inflation so there will always be more selling pressure than buying pressure.

Do you strictly follow the EW rules for altcoin markets as well?

I do except in margin markets

[seleme]

So, your bet is down from here?

[Remember remember the 5th of November]

Even after reading up on EW, I am still not clear on what we are seeing drawn on your charts.

Personally I have not been at it for as long as you have, and I have not done anything related to TA for 4-5 months so I have forgotten a few things, but generally I am bad at it, I knew we were going down from this recent swing to 450, but I couldn't set on an entry price, I just cant figure them out.

[RyNinDaCleM]

So, your bet is down from here?

Over all, yes, I see us dropping further for now.
We may meander sideways or even get another small rise, but the Bear market is not finished in my opinion.

Even after reading up on EW, I am still not clear on what we are seeing drawn on your charts.

I can explain what is going on, but I don't know where you are having trouble. Is it mainly the corrective waves in that last chart (WXY)? Or the impulse waves? The labeling of the sub-waves?

[RyNinDaCleM]

So, your bet is down from here?

Over all, yes, I see us dropping further for now.
We may meander sideways or even get another small rise, but the Bear market is not finished in my opinion.

Even after reading up on EW, I am still not clear on what we are seeing drawn on your charts.

I can explain what is going on, but I don't know where you are having trouble. Is it mainly the corrective waves in that last chart (WXY)? Or the impulse waves? The labeling of the sub-waves?

I'll try it this way
Chart from earlier with a little modification


The gray boxes are major waves. The red boxes are sub-waves of the gray boxes. The blue boxes are sub-waves of the red boxes.
I also labeled the divergence in 1 and the lack thereof in 3. Those are the "LL", "HL" Note that you get lower lows (LL) throughout the wave-1 but the indicator makes a higher low (HL) on the 5th wave. This is Bullish divergence and signals the end of the first impulse. That is when I expect an ABC correction. Then note the next group of waves heading down. LL all the way through the price, but also on the EWO. This is lacking the divergence so it requires one more wave down to complete 3.

To the left of the impulses lower we have a complex correction (WXY, the Y would be where the "(iv)" is, but I leave it out for clarity purposes)
WXY corrections are made up of ABC moves (but they can be smaller wxy, too) The point is, is that WXY corrections are all 3 wave structures. Any combination of 3 wave structures. In this chart there are the sub-waves of W, (a) and (b). The X is a smaller degree wxy labeled as (w), (x) and (y)  for it's sub-waves (again the (y) is left out for clarity), but the (w) has sub-waves of abc. Then to finish off the Y, we have (a), (b) and the 5 waves of (c) labeled.

Still following? I hope so  

[adamstgBit]

Still following? I hope so  

no, way to complicated.

whats your target? for the next wave  

[RyNinDaCleM]

Still following? I hope so  

no

whats your target? for the next wave  

I thought you have your own target? Something like $375 is your buy zone and that's only if we can break below $400...
Well, I got some good news for you. That $375 isn't a bad spot to buy for a quick bounce back into the $400's, possibly to ~$420. If you can get it

[adamstgBit]

Still following? I hope so  

no

whats your target? for the next wave  

I thought you have your own target? Something like $375 is your buy zone and that's only if we can break below $400...
Well, I got some good news for you. That $375 isn't a bad spot to buy for a quick bounce back into the $400's, possibly to ~$420. If you can get it

 ~375$ thats my magic number, so far, yes.

i don't understand Elliott wave TA, but i'm assuming you have some kind of target price, what's the Elliott wave TA targeting?

am i correct in assuming its targeting ~382$