Ryans' log

[JustAnotherSheep]

According to this: http://www.babypips.com/school/high-school/trading-divergences/hidden-divergence.html hidden bullish divergence would mean lower high price and higher high indicator. In your picture it is the other way around.

Yeah, the picture shows regular divergence on lower timescales. Hidden bullish is in the linked post:

hidden bullish divergence (even 2 in a row) on daily as pointed out by oda.krell

[RyNinDaCleM]

According to this: http://www.babypips.com/school/high-school/trading-divergences/hidden-divergence.html hidden bullish divergence would mean lower high price and higher high indicator. In your picture it is the other way around.

Yeah, the picture shows regular (Bearish) divergence on lower timescales. Hidden bullish is in the linked post:

hidden bullish divergence (even 2 in a row) on daily as pointed out by oda.krell

[RyNinDaCleM]

For what it's worth, I went here and accessed the ten free lessons:

http://www.elliottwave.com/club/EWI-basic-tutorial/default.aspx?code=dc&articleid=0

Pretty helpful.  I followed the lessons reasonably well, and it helped me understand a LOT better what Ryan is doing.  I still have to say there appears to be quite a bit of interpretation that Ryan is doing--and doing very well, and even explaining it to us really well.  

A couple more questions:

1)  I just went back and looked at your last couple of charts.  One was a 60 minute chart and one was a 10 minute.  Does the picture look markedly different in one day charts versus 60 minute charts versus 10 minute charts?

The reason I use different time frames is to confirm that all sub-waves indeed have all of their respective sub-waves. A Daily chart can give you the larger count (currently the largest degree for Bitcoin, but will eventually require weekly to show the all-time count), then a 4hr chart gives you access to the sub-waves of the major Daily count. Remember, some daily bars don't quite pick up on the intraday movements, so a lower time frame is necessary. The 1 hr gives a glimps of the sub-waves to the sub-waves from the 4hr chart, and so on. Right now I'm on the 10, 30 and hourly charts because the minute waves we are in require that kind of resolution to count them. The hourly still holds most of the important divergences. Divergences on a 10 minute chart are not really tradeable unless you really want to and are willing to babysit the position. A pull back on a 10 minute count is usually only 1 or 2%, so small.

2)  The lessons I took last night give me a much better understanding and ability to follow what you are doing with this particular set of counts on BTC.  But when I started looking at XMR and BTM, I just got completely lost.  Any suggestions for how one might look at a virgin chart and start the process of decoding the waves?  One thing I haven't tried is using something like Sierra Charts that allows me to mark it up.  Seems like that might be pretty necessary.  

The very best thing to do is to start at a price extreme. The ATH or the ATL, or in the case of Bitcoin, the 2011 wave-[II] low at $1.994... Start counting the biggest, most noticeable waves first. Then you can go to a lower time frame and confirm that each impulse you just counted has the 5 waves of an impulse within it. If that checks out, go to a lower time frame yet, and check for your 5 valid waves in each of those.

3)  The candles actually seem to distract me from the points.  I wonder if it would make sense for me, anyway, to use a line chart.  

Edit...the only thing I can think of as a starting point is to try to find the 3's.

The problem with a line chart is that it's usually based on an average. OHLC avg, HLC, VWAP, etc... So it's doesn't tell the whole story and it won't show overlaps that invalidate a count either. Candlesticks and OHLC bars are best suited for this job.

[vuduchyld]

Great answers!  Thanks!  Will get to work on that tonight!

[myself]

imo you people can practice EW TA on this 2020 gold contract https://www.tradingview.com/x/yFoPtRHs/

[RyNinDaCleM]

Today we have divergence in the hourly chart. This completes the 1 of (5) of III. Fibo says we see a pullback around the $430 range (61.8% retrace of wave-(1) ) I had to reuse some higher degree labels for this chart. These are only representative of the count, so I will switch back and forth but the true count remains the same. We are in a "2 of some degree" is all that's important right now.


Happy trading!

Later I will explain that second sentence

[h3speros]

i have hard time believing that we will rise to 430 before fall, there's some resistance at 415 (can be fake, but i doubt it) and that hidden bearish divergence on hourly...

[RyNinDaCleM]

i have hard time believing that we will rise to 430 before fall, there's some resistance at 415 (can be fake, but i doubt it) and that hidden bearish divergence on hourly...

An alternate count would be that the drop today was the i of an extended 5th. If that is the case, the bullish divergence will be quickly neutralized and we'll be off to the races. This would also fall inline with the lower target from yesterday around $382, but may make it a bit lower.

Edit, Also, a wave-2 can go anywhere except higher than the start of wave-1, so it can just end up with a weak retracement.

[Raystonn]

Today we have divergence in the hourly chart. This completes the 1 of (5) of III. Fibo says we see a pullback around the $430 range (61.8% retrace of wave-(1) ) I had to reuse some higher degree labels for this chart. These are only representative of the count, so I will switch back and forth but the true count remains the same. We are in a "2 of some degree" is all that's important right now.


Happy trading!

Later I will explain that second sentence

How high do you expect IV to take us once (5) is complete?

[RyNinDaCleM]

Today we have divergence in the hourly chart. This completes the 1 of (5) of III. Fibo says we see a pullback around the $430 range (61.8% retrace of wave-(1) ) I had to reuse some higher degree labels for this chart. These are only representative of the count, so I will switch back and forth but the true count remains the same. We are in a "2 of some degree" is all that's important right now.


Happy trading!

Later I will explain that second sentence

How high do you expect IV to take us once (5) is complete?

It can be as high as $475, but it really depends on where we go next

[Raystonn]

Do you have a chart showing just I, II, III, IV, and V?

[RyNinDaCleM]

Do you have a chart showing just I, II, III, IV, and V?

Something like this. It may vary but that is the gist.

[Raystonn]

Thanks.  Where did "I" begin?

[RyNinDaCleM]

Thanks.  Where did "I" begin?

From the (B) top

[Schickeria]

Hey Ryn! How about about adding your legends to the first page? I already downloaded it, but maybe it would help others, too.  

[RyNinDaCleM]

Hey Ryn! How about about adding your legends to the first page? I already downloaded it, but maybe it would help others, too.  

I will do it right now!

However, this is what I use

[Raystonn]

We are currently in (C).  It looks close to ending, perhaps near 30x.  We should then resume our bull market with (I), right?  Where are we in terms of SuperCycles?

Thanks

[RyNinDaCleM]

We are currently in (C).  It looks close to ending, perhaps near 30x.  We should then resume our bull market with (I), right?  Where are we in terms of SuperCycles?

Thanks

There are a couple of options for the all-time count. One that we have finished a full five wave cycle in which case the next rise would be building on the [ I ] of [[III]]. The other (and imo, more likely) scenario is that 1163 was the top of (III) of [III] and we are about to complete [III] with the next big rally to new ATH's.

This is the more likely count in my opinion

[Gimmelfarb]

thanks for this thread, RyNinDaCleM. i had always thought Eliott Wave was some sort of voodoo nonsense. but i'm learning a lot. i've been paper trading based on EW and EWO for the past few weeks (can't risk my real funds on something i am still learning and have not backtested much), but it's going really well!

[RyNinDaCleM]

thanks for this thread, RyNinDaCleM. i had always thought Eliott Wave was some sort of voodoo nonsense. but i'm learning a lot. i've been paper trading based on EW and EWO for the past few weeks (can't risk my real funds on something i am still learning and have not backtested much), but it's going really well!

No problem! I'm glad you find it of use